2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[gehringer_2]

46 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Honestly, all due respect to 84, I don't think the concern is legit.

I firmly believe Hinch was merely playing the hand dealt to him, under a system he was forced for a time to work under and which he, I believe, worked from the inside to help overthrow. I think Hinch has proven that he is the opposite of stick-in-the-mud jockhead anti-analyticism. If people still want to blame him for the garbage Avila put on the field and the strategies that Avila, I believe, demanded, that's fine, they're certainly free to. I would strongly disagree with a take along those line.

I know it's always hard to believe that a new day is dawning right in front of your eyes, because after being burned so many times before, no one wants to be made to look the fool for emotionally going all in on it. People want to be regarded as wise, not foolish. But I believe, 100%, that new day is dawning, and I myself am willing to risk being seen as that fool. Anyone else with me on this? Because if I am alone on it, that's OK, it wouldn't be the first time.

IDK. I'm willing to believe Harris is the real deal, though he has to prove it on the field in some reasonable time. I have to admit I'm less sold on Hinch than I used to be. I not completely sure Hinch may not just be the glib chameleon personality who sucks up to any new boss and thus always begins as the star pupil of the regime. I'm not claiming the argument, but just saying that for any number of vague, indefinable reasons I have more questions about Hinch than I once thought I did.

Edited January 25, 2023 by gehringer_2

[casimir]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

The other fear is Hinch falling in love with a vet and playing him because... well, he's a veteran (any vet that fits this description, including Schoop and Miggy, Cesar, or any other subpar player that simply fills in a position/ PA's) and going against the grain of Harris's sentiment that the kids HAVE to get PA's because they gotta be developed/ given chances...

Like the Castrei of the past few years...

I don’t know. CastroH was arguably one of the better players on the team last season, so there was some reason to play him.  CastroW was still young enough and trying him at a new position was probably a last ditch effort to see if anything clicked.  Reyes was a body to throw in the OF when there weren’t other options.

I think they were rolling with 14 pitchers a lot as well, so there wasn’t much off time for position players.  When you factor in the backup C and Cabrera confined to DH, that leaves two fielding bench options on the bench to start a game, assuming that Cabrera was indeed healthy enough to meander up to the plate as the DH.

Hinch didn’t have many options last season.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK. I'm willing to believe Harris is the real deal, though he has to prove it on the field in some reasonable time. I have to admit I'm less sold on Hinch than I used to be. I not completely sure Hinch may not just be the glib chameleon personality who sucks up to any new boss and thus always begins as the star pupil of the regime. I'm not claiming the argument, but just saying that for any number of vague, indefinable reasons I have more questions about Hinch than I once thought I did.

Totally fine, I get that. You don’t know, and to be fair, I don’t know, either. But I have this feeling, based on nothing more than what I’ve read about his tenure here through the prism of my sabermetric readings over the years, and I believe he is the real deal for us. I’ll take the blame for the whole thing if I’m wrong. 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I’ll take the blame for the whole thing if I’m wrong. 

Well, we shouldn't have to go that far.....maybe.  

[chasfh]

18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Well, we shouldn't have to go that far.....maybe.  

Speak for yourself … 😁

[1984Echoes]

33 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Totally fine, I get that. You don’t know, and to be fair, I don’t know, either. But I have this feeling, based on nothing more than what I’ve read about his tenure here through the prism of my sabermetric readings over the years, and I believe he is the real deal for us. I’ll take the blame for the whole thing if I’m wrong. 

I'm not interested in tossing out blame or anything like that...

I just don't want Hinch to feel pressured to prioritize winning over developing the kids or giving those kids chances.

Maybe you're right and Avila left him with little to no options so there's no blame to be placed at Hinch's feet there...

But...

There were a couple bats that were hot in Toledo last year: one we gave away to the Dodgers; and the other was Kerry Carpenter, who was called up - a bit late - to Detroit.

When we OBVIOUSLY needed bats last year. Who made those calls? Avila? Or Hinch?

I hope it was Avila impeding the progress/ potential call-ups and not Hinch; and that Harris breaks any tendency to just sit on veterans instead of swiftly moving on and giving kids chances... because I'm on the side of out with the old and in with the new... at least until there's a core that sticks.

I don't know the answers to the questions I just raised. Again, I hope it was Avila as the problem. I don't want it to be Hinch that blocks kids' chances or playing time.

I just... don't know that for certain.

[1984Echoes]

PS: Oh, and based on what I've seen the past couple of years... I believe that I DO have a legitimate concern. 

I hope it's much ado about nothing. But I just want to see it.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I don’t know. CastroH was arguably one of the better players on the team last season, so there was some reason to play him.  CastroW was still young enough and trying him at a new position was probably a last ditch effort to see if anything clicked.  Reyes was a body to throw in the OF when there weren’t other options.

I think they were rolling with 14 pitchers a lot as well, so there wasn’t much off time for position players.  When you factor in the backup C and Cabrera confined to DH, that leaves two fielding bench options on the bench to start a game, assuming that Cabrera was indeed healthy enough to meander up to the plate as the DH.

Hinch didn’t have many options last season.

My biggest problem with how things were run last year was that they didn't really avail themselves of the few options they actually had, or at least in the timeliest fashion. In particular, when they were putting Willi out in CF daily, including that monumental ****up in New York where he turned a routine fly ball into a triple ... I said it at the time, but they had Trayce Thompson in the system, presumably as a "break glass" outfield option. And with Meadows and Grossman out, they would have been justified to break glass and just didn't.

But I dont think that's AJ's fault... maybe he had input, but ultimately Al is the one who brought Thompson into the org and let him go without ever once giving him a chance to play on the big club.

Kerry Carpenter is another one... I know there was a lot of skepticism on this board about bringing him up, but given how things were going and the need to shake things up just to try different things, he probably should have been called up a few weeks earlier. And the fact that he was ultimately called up the day that Avila was fired was really interesting... maybe coincidental, but either way it was kinda telling

Edited January 26, 2023 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

36 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm not interested in tossing out blame or anything like that...

I just don't want Hinch to feel pressured to prioritize winning over developing the kids or giving those kids chances.

Maybe you're right and Avila left him with little to no options so there's no blame to be placed at Hinch's feet there...

But...

There were a couple bats that were hot in Toledo last year: one we gave away to the Dodgers; and the other was Kerry Carpenter, who was called up - a bit late - to Detroit.

When we OBVIOUSLY needed bats last year. Who made those calls? Avila? Or Hinch?

I hope it was Avila impeding the progress/ potential call-ups and not Hinch; and that Harris breaks any tendency to just sit on veterans instead of swiftly moving on and giving kids chances... because I'm on the side of out with the old and in with the new... at least until there's a core that sticks.

I don't know the answers to the questions I just raised. Again, I hope it was Avila as the problem. I don't want it to be Hinch that blocks kids' chances or playing time.

I just... don't know that for certain.

If there’s blame to be levied on Hinch for the terrible performance of a substandard roster of players such as the 2022 Tigers were, I honestly don’t know what that would be.

I don’t know why we would blame Hinch and not Avila for the late call up of Kerry Carpenter to the majors. Hinch is the field manager of only the big league club. Avila was the executive vice president and general manager of the entire organization. Why blame Hinch and not Avila for that non-callup?

Why blame Hinch, the guy who wasn’t even managing the minors leaguers, for the stalled progress of the minor leaguers, and not Avila, the guy who brought all those minor leaguers into the organization and (purportedly) oversaw their development? I don’t really get the idea behind that.

Nevertheless, that’s what’s happening. Maybe it’s because A.J. Hinch is the guy fans see on the TV every night while the Tigers are en route to yet another 96-loss season, while Al Avila sits in a suite, or in an office on Montcalm, out of the view of the camera. Maybe it’s that people blame the guy they see. Maybe it’s because in that way, A.J. Hinch is the face of the organization. I guess I can see that part of it.

I guess all we can do at this point is wait to see what happens next. I hope you’re rooting to be wrong on this. Because if for some inexplicable reason you’re right—which, I can’t even imagine how that can even be—then really, god help us Tiger fans.

 

 

 

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK. I'm willing to believe Harris is the real deal, though he has to prove it on the field in some reasonable time. 

We will need to see success on the field, but what I appreciate about Harris and why I am with Chas in thinking things really are different is that each transaction this offseason appears to have been done with his pillars in mind. Particularly on the position player side, it has been refreshing to see a coherent strategy in obtaining players who have a history of taking walks and controlling the strike zone. Even if they haven't been the sexy signings that everyone loves, one imagines building depth with guys like that will help bear fruit. 

Pitching wise, its been a little less coherent on that front, but OTOH, he seems to be leveraging his pillar of being a place where guys can get better... even if the fanbase is leery, the team has a relative level of reputation on the pitching side with a coach who is well respected. And we have seen at least in one case (Lorenzen) a pitcher who has stated he sees this as a place where he can improve and why he ultimately signed here.

All of this is to say that Harris has a coherent strategy and it's been a while (since DD) since they've had a guy who has one.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm not interested in tossing out blame or anything like that...

I just don't want Hinch to feel pressured to prioritize winning over developing the kids or giving those kids chances.

Maybe you're right and Avila left him with little to no options so there's no blame to be placed at Hinch's feet there...

But...

There were a couple bats that were hot in Toledo last year: one we gave away to the Dodgers; and the other was Kerry Carpenter, who was called up - a bit late - to Detroit.

When we OBVIOUSLY needed bats last year. Who made those calls? Avila? Or Hinch?

I hope it was Avila impeding the progress/ potential call-ups and not Hinch; and that Harris breaks any tendency to just sit on veterans instead of swiftly moving on and giving kids chances... because I'm on the side of out with the old and in with the new... at least until there's a core that sticks.

I don't know the answers to the questions I just raised. Again, I hope it was Avila as the problem. I don't want it to be Hinch that blocks kids' chances or playing time.

I just... don't know that for certain.

One of Hinch's strengths in his first year with the Tigers was supposedly his manipulation of the roster and his influence over construction of the 25-man roster over the course of the season.  You can't really give him credit for that if you are saying that the next year was Avila's fault because he didn't give him anyhing with which to work.     

[1984Echoes]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

... Why blame Hinch, the guy who wasn’t even managing the minors leaguers, for the stalled progress of the minor leaguers, and not Avila, the guy who brought all those minor leaguers into the organization and (purportedly) oversaw their development? I don’t really get the idea behind that...

Huh? What?

Please show me where I am blaming Hinch for the stalled progress of minor leaguers. 

Because I have no idea what you're talking about.

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If there’s blame to be levied on Hinch for the terrible performance of a substandard roster of players such as the 2022 Tigers were, I honestly don’t know what that would be...

And where exactly am I blaming Hinch for the terrible performance of a substandard roster of players?

You're making things up here...

I've said nothing of the sort.

Twice.

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

... I don’t know why we would blame Hinch and not Avila for the late call up of Kerry Carpenter to the majors. Hinch is the field manager of only the big league club. Avila was the executive vice president and general manager of the entire organization. Why blame Hinch and not Avila for that non-callup? ...

Is it this? Because I complained about not bringing up Kerry in a timely manner?

Because this has nothing to do with the other two points you've made. Not calling up Kerry has no relationship to how the minor leaguers develop, nor is it blaming Hinch for the crappy year last year, with Avila's crappy roster.

Here's what it DOES say, and let me explain myself clearly: (A) I believe Hinch and Avila spoke almost daily, if not at least weekly. About the team. Problems/ issues/ injuries/ where the team was going/ how to fix things/ etc. That's what Managers and executive vice president and general manager of the entire organization do. They talk, and discuss potential moves, and fixes, etc. What, are you telling me because Avila was the executive vice president and general manager of the entire organization that Hinch had absolutely no say in who was being called up or sent down, whatsoever? I believe you are overstating Avila and underselling Hinch's status/ pull on the roster in a significant way. (B) If I am correct and Hinch had some input into roster callups... Then he didn't prioritize calling up Thompson or Kerry. Or maybe Avila overruled him and wouldn't allow Hinch to call him up. Or maybe Avila said "We gotta prioritize wins right now so look to the Veterans getting better (Meadows/ Schoop/ etc.) instead of giving shots to these other guys." Or maybe HINCH said "I'd rather push for getting some wins so lets stick with the vets."

No one knows who said what or who made what decisions with regards to (B). 

I am placing no blame on Hinch for last year. But I AM saying he may be slow to move on from veterans. Like Miggy, who should have been benched a lot earlier and a shot given to Trace Thompson (IMO). 

Again, like I said, maybe this is all in my head... but the fear is going to stick in there, hoping that Hinch is not reluctant to "take calculated risks" and play some of these kids. Until I see that he is perfectly on board with that.

I'm certain Harris will give him a push and say "Hey, let's try to do better than Schoop and call up Wenceel for a shot to see how he handles it." 

Let's see what happens when that happens... when Wenceel or Dingler or someone else is called up to see what they've got... And how Hinch plays them. This is my opinion but... I think Hinch is pushing for wins (understandable), not for playing kids. But we're under a new M.O., so I'm interested in seeing how Hinch handles that...

 

[1984Echoes]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

One of Hinch's strengths in his first year with the Tigers was supposedly his manipulation of the roster and his influence over construction of the 25-man roster over the course of the season.  You can't really give him credit for that if you are saying that the next year was Avila's fault because he didn't give him anyhing with which to work.     

And that's what I am NOT saying.

That is what Chas is saying.

What I am saying is that in 2023 wins were prioritized, including by Hinch (understandable based on expectations), and he didn't make the roster moves in 2023 that he would have in 2022...

But I'm just guessing...

[gehringer_2]

The other problem is 'coach speak.' Every manager is obligated to do it, and it can make it difficult to separate fact from fiction, and blur the borders between statements of strategic principle and mere clubhouse PR. Certainly you *must* assume much of what Hinch said last season wrt players like Willi Castro  was pure coach speak. None the less those statements go out as the truth as delivered by the man in charge which is not good for the perception that the man in charge knows what he is doing. This tension is pretty much unavoidable, but some managers do handle it better than others. I have been thoroughly  impressed at how the Wings' Derek Lalonde can discuss his team in such a perfectly straightforward manner without either trying to obfuscate the obvious failures or yet ever appearing to thow his players under the bus either. Of course that skill is nice, but can he/will he win?(!?!?!)

Edited January 26, 2023 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

Now TBF, it is probably also true that since the Wings, even as they are, sell out LCA, there is far less pressure on Derek Lalonde to 'market' the Wings team/players as anything they are not. When the Tigers are playing in front of crowds at CoPa that wouldn't even half fill LCA, the sales imperatives, perceived or real, may be quite different.

Edited January 26, 2023 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

12 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Huh? What?

Please show me where I am blaming Hinch for the stalled progress of minor leaguers. 

Because I have no idea what you're talking about.

And where exactly am I blaming Hinch for the terrible performance of a substandard roster of players?

You're making things up here...

I've said nothing of the sort.

Twice.

Is it this? Because I complained about not bringing up Kerry in a timely manner?

Because this has nothing to do with the other two points you've made. Not calling up Kerry has no relationship to how the minor leaguers develop, nor is it blaming Hinch for the crappy year last year, with Avila's crappy roster.

Here's what it DOES say, and let me explain myself clearly: (A) I believe Hinch and Avila spoke almost daily, if not at least weekly. About the team. Problems/ issues/ injuries/ where the team was going/ how to fix things/ etc. That's what Managers and executive vice president and general manager of the entire organization do. They talk, and discuss potential moves, and fixes, etc. What, are you telling me because Avila was the executive vice president and general manager of the entire organization that Hinch had absolutely no say in who was being called up or sent down, whatsoever? I believe you are overstating Avila and underselling Hinch's status/ pull on the roster in a significant way. (B) If I am correct and Hinch had some input into roster callups... Then he didn't prioritize calling up Thompson or Kerry. Or maybe Avila overruled him and wouldn't allow Hinch to call him up. Or maybe Avila said "We gotta prioritize wins right now so look to the Veterans getting better (Meadows/ Schoop/ etc.) instead of giving shots to these other guys." Or maybe HINCH said "I'd rather push for getting some wins so lets stick with the vets."

No one knows who said what or who made what decisions with regards to (B). 

I am placing no blame on Hinch for last year. But I AM saying he may be slow to move on from veterans. Like Miggy, who should have been benched a lot earlier and a shot given to Trace Thompson (IMO). 

Again, like I said, maybe this is all in my head... but the fear is going to stick in there, hoping that Hinch is not reluctant to "take calculated risks" and play some of these kids. Until I see that he is perfectly on board with that.

I'm certain Harris will give him a push and say "Hey, let's try to do better than Schoop and call up Wenceel for a shot to see how he handles it." 

Let's see what happens when that happens... when Wenceel or Dingler or someone else is called up to see what they've got... And how Hinch plays them. This is my opinion but... I think Hinch is pushing for wins (understandable), not for playing kids. But we're under a new M.O., so I'm interested in seeing how Hinch handles that...

 

If you're honestly asking the question "Who made those calls? Avila? Or Hinch?" about how prospects were developed or whether they were or were not brought up on time, then you're not sure. That means you think Hinch might be making those calls over Avila's objections. If you think that even might have happened, then yeah, it looks like you might want to blame Hinch for it.

I can tell you right now who made those calls. It was Avila.

That's why he got fired. Finally. Thankfully.

[Motor City Sonics]

I don't know 

Maybe it's just that Harris & his staff have a vastly different way of evaluating talent than Avila and he has to see what we have up close with his own metrics before making any moves. 

My  hope is that Chris Illitch is only holding back spending until Miggy/Schoop/Baez are gone (over 60 million)

My fear is that he will never spend money.   I mean, we already know he really doesn't give a shit about winning, but maybe try a little?  

Why would Harris come here, leaving his hometown without some sort of promise that he would get payroll help from the owner.   Was Harris about to get axed in San Francisco and he just wanted a gig?    

He did all the front office things I wanted him to do.     I just hope it's a matter of  A - evaluating on his terms and B- having coaches than can develop a position player.   C- waiting for all the young dudes on the pitching staff to get healthy to really see what he has there, so he can move pitching prospects.    They're gonna need those guys this year, whether they are ready or not.   I mean, do you really think Matt Manning isn't going to the long-term DL?   He's 5 innings at best.   Do you really think Lorenzen is going to break 100 IP?   And who the hell knows what Boyd & Turnbull will be like.    We are going to see Flores or Madden or Kirby or Bergner.............we might see all of them this year.  

I just don't want to be the Reds and Pirates - forever in obscurity.   And both of those towns are great baseball towns like Detroit.  

1989 - 2005 all over again.  ugh. 

[gehringer_2]

Harris has to find a way to make progress on pitching injuries. Whether that's learning to identify pitchers with better physiology, less detructive mechanics, or even modifications of what they are currently teaching them to do to maximize their effectiveness, the constant loss of pitchers to injury as much as anything else, has destroyed any hope the team ever did have under Avila to build roster value. It can't go on. They can hope it was just bad luck and will normalize itself away, but I'm doubting it.

[SoCalTiger]

I am very happy with Harris running the show and also believe he is the real deal. Having said that we have not seen a draft, a major free agent investment ( meaning can he make solid choices not that he hasn't yet since it's not time yet) and as G-2 mentions can he stem the arm blowouts if that's even possible.

I also think Hinch is better than most assuming Avila was forcing his hand the last two years to play "Al's Hires". And I know matchups are "the in strategy" and maybe really the way to go but I still think players that know where and when they will play can prep and perform better. I mean they don't all have to be utility players and knowing what your position or maybe two positions are has to help development. So I would like to see them pick a spot or at most two for a player and give them reps there. Or at least experiment at AAA. But maybe thats "old School" and out dated thinking ?

And yes keep an eye on the future by playing the kids with upside over the flat lining vets which Harris has publicly stated they will and probably  the reason we do not have third baseman. 

[casimir]

8 hours ago, mtutiger said:

My biggest problem with how things were run last year was that they didn't really avail themselves of the few options they actually had, or at least in the timeliest fashion. In particular, when they were putting Willi out in CF daily, including that monumental ****up in New York where he turned a routine fly ball into a triple ... I said it at the time, but they had Trayce Thompson in the system, presumably as a "break glass" outfield option. And with Meadows and Grossman out, they would have been justified to break glass and just didn't.

But I dont think that's AJ's fault... maybe he had input, but ultimately Al is the one who brought Thompson into the org and let him go without ever once giving him a chance to play on the big club.

Kerry Carpenter is another one... I know there was a lot of skepticism on this board about bringing him up, but given how things were going and the need to shake things up just to try different things, he probably should have been called up a few weeks earlier. And the fact that he was ultimately called up the day that Avila was fired was really interesting... maybe coincidental, but either way it was kinda telling

But I think the Castro issue(s) goes back to the needing versatility on the roster because of the lack of flexibility with some of the other players.  They only had 12 position players most of the time because they needed 14 pitchers.  2 catchers.  Cabrera was a DH only, and really cannot be expected to do that everyday and maybe not even every other day.  So now they're down to 9 guys to cover 7 defensive positions.  It doesn't leave a whole lot of options, and so a couple of the only options were to keep the Castros around because they could be shuffled around the IF/OF if needed.

I know a lot of folks are optimistic about Carpenter's bat.  But I think they did a disservice to him and themselves by DHing him in 12 of his 31 games in Detroit.  He's going to have to become at least an adequate fielder.  It doesn't help the Tigers to carry to DHs on the roster unless they've got everyday players everywhere else around the diamond.

[mtutiger]

7 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

My  hope is that Chris Illitch is only holding back spending until Miggy/Schoop/Baez are gone (over 60 million)

My fear is that he will never spend money.   I mean, we already know he really doesn't give a shit about winning, but maybe try a little?  

1.) They spent money last offseason... I believe they were in the Top 5 in total contract money doled out among all teams even iirc. Which, given their progression to 77 wins, made sense... 

2.) Don't know how many different ways it needs to be said, this team won 66 games last year. 1-2 big free agents alone will not make a sub-70 win team competitive (see 2022 Texas Rangers).

I hate that this debate constantly puts me in the situation of defending Chris I, who by all accounts seems unlikable on many levels, but there's an implication that being more active on the free agent market is a silver bullet for this team at this current juncture when it isn’t. To the extent that this team can improve and even out-perform expectations, it is gonna need to come from the guys already here. Maybe if they do that, it puts them back into a situation where they are more like 10 wins away from a playoff spot and where the investment makes sense.

[mtutiger]

6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Harris has to find a way to make progress on pitching injuries. Whether that's learning to identify pitchers with better physiology, less detructive mechanics, or even modifications of what they are currently teaching them to do to maximize their effectiveness, the constant loss of pitchers to injury as much as anything else, has destroyed any hope the team ever did have under Avila to build roster value. It can't go on. They can hope it was just bad luck and will normalize itself away, but I'm doubting it.

Have to believe some of the new hires (Lund specifically) were made with this in mind.

[Hongbit]

This randomly popped up in my feed and made me go hmm.

 

[Jim Cowan]

Robbie Grossman had 73 at bats in July with an OPS of .562, with young developmental players on the bench.  I was ripping my hair out.  I suppose that some people would find a way to blame Aviia for that.

[chasfh]

7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Harris has to find a way to make progress on pitching injuries. Whether that's learning to identify pitchers with better physiology, less detructive mechanics, or even modifications of what they are currently teaching them to do to maximize their effectiveness, the constant loss of pitchers to injury as much as anything else, has destroyed any hope the team ever did have under Avila to build roster value. It can't go on. They can hope it was just bad luck and will normalize itself away, but I'm doubting it.

Between the firing of the old guard under which these injuries happened and the investments the club has been making in the infrastructure of the team from top to bottom, the team agrees with you and is not sitting back and hoping things normalize themselves by sheer change of luck.