2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Tenacious D]

I don’t know why everyone piles on Tork, but Greene gets a free pass?  Is it because he dives for balls?  I would argue Tork was as important to the team defensively, routinely digging out shitty throws from Baez, who probably would have committed closer to 40 errors.

I don’t think we should write off any of the guys I listed, but the returns have been underwhelming (so far) for players of their pedigree.  (Mize and Faedo due to injuries that were out of their control).

This team could easily turn around quickly if some combination of those guys can start to live up to the promise, and other youngsters like Keith, Perez, Flores, Olsen and/or Madden soon progress to the majors.  But if these things happen, should Avila still be so reviled? I liked his offseason moves last year (as did everyone else), and the collective team performance was inexplicable.  How does one team endure the number of pitching injuries they had and every hitter hitting significantly below expectations?

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I don’t know why everyone piles on Tork, but Greene gets a free pass?  Is it because he dives for balls?  I would argue Tork was as important to the team defensively, routinely digging out shitty throws from Baez, who probably would have committed closer to 40 errors.

 

I do think thre are some fans who have overstated Greene's performance last year, but that might be because the rest of the team was so horrible.  I will say though that Greene did significantly better than Torkelson offensively . 

[mtutiger]

24 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I do think thre are some fans who have overstated Greene's performance last year, but that might be because the rest of the team was so horrible.  I will say though that Greene did significantly better than Torkelson offensively . 

Greene hit a ball about 450 feet off Shohei Ohtani (the longest Ohtani has ever given up in the majors) and hit a game winning, 9th inning homer.

For better or worse, can't really think of any plays that Tork made with the bat that left that much of an impression on me.

Edited January 28, 2023 by mtutiger

[Tenacious D]

Greene’s OPS was under .700—basically the equivalent of a backup infielder.  If we give him the benefit of the doubt, we should extend that to Torkelson, too.

For our sake, let’s call it growing pains for both and hope the new coaches in charge of player development can help make any necessary adjustments.

[mtutiger]

Tork was a .604 OPS and a -1.3 WAR, Greene was .682 with a 1.4 WAR Close to an 80 point difference in OPS and close to 3 difference in WAR.

I guess one can look at Greene's performance and call it an underperformance (debatable), but it's clear he was in a different ballpark than TORK! in 2022.

[Tenacious D]

49 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I guess one can look at Greene's performance and call it an underperformance (debatable), but it's clear he was in a different ballpark than TORK! in 2022.

No, they were in the same ballparks. And neither delivered in them. Hopeful for this season, though.
 

[Tiger337]

The biggest problem with Greene was his 29% k rate which is huge for someone with a .109 ISO.  I think he'll improve on that next year, but that's an ugly k rate.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Greene’s OPS was under .700—basically the equivalent of a backup infielder.  If we give him the benefit of the doubt, we should extend that to Torkelson, too.

For our sake, let’s call it growing pains for both and hope the new coaches in charge of player development can help make any necessary adjustments.

Greene is a quality CF. If he grows into an 800 OPS we should be more than happy. If Tork does't get to 900 as a 1B it will be a major disappointment. So there is that.

Edited January 28, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

41 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

No, they were in the same ballparks. And neither delivered in them. Hopeful for this season, though.
 

Here's how I would put it... Greene fell within range of what could reasonably expected from a rookie debut season. Or at least the expectations I had going into 2022, especially given his injury. On the lower end of course, but within range.  That doesn't mean that he was great or that he doesn't need to improve, but he was within the range of outcomes. And he showed enough for me to believe he'll be at least a solid big leaguer.

Tork was nowhere close to the bottom of his range of outcomes as I saw it going into 2022. And I say this as someone who has been one of his bigger defenders and someone who has preached patience with him, he was downright bad in 2022. And because of his performance I have less confidence in him than in Greene. Doesn't mean he won't grow into the role of reach greater heights, but 2022 introduced more uncertainty in his case

Edited January 28, 2023 by mtutiger

[Edman85]

Raw OPS in 2022 is misleading given the leaguewide environment and the way Comerica played. OPS+ of 99 tells a different story.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

Raw OPS in 2022 is misleading given the leaguewide environment and the way Comerica played. OPS+ of 99 tells a different story.

For reference, Torkelson had an OPS+ of 77.

One rookie was just about league average, the other wasnt.

[Edman85]

... and one played center field, the other played first base.

[buddha]

On 1/25/2023 at 8:17 PM, 1984Echoes said:

I'm not interested in tossing out blame or anything like that...

I just don't want Hinch to feel pressured to prioritize winning over developing the kids or giving those kids chances.

Maybe you're right and Avila left him with little to no options so there's no blame to be placed at Hinch's feet there...

But...

There were a couple bats that were hot in Toledo last year: one we gave away to the Dodgers; and the other was Kerry Carpenter, who was called up - a bit late - to Detroit.

When we OBVIOUSLY needed bats last year. Who made those calls? Avila? Or Hinch?

I hope it was Avila impeding the progress/ potential call-ups and not Hinch; and that Harris breaks any tendency to just sit on veterans instead of swiftly moving on and giving kids chances... because I'm on the side of out with the old and in with the new... at least until there's a core that sticks.

I don't know the answers to the questions I just raised. Again, I hope it was Avila as the problem. I don't want it to be Hinch that blocks kids' chances or playing time.

I just... don't know that for certain.

you question aj hinch but youre all in on al avila?  come on 84...

[Longgone]

4 hours ago, buddha said:

you question aj hinch but youre all in on al avila?  come on 84...

I'm not sure what he's saying, but I'm all for letting kids fully develop before bringing them up. The bigs will shred you if you are not ready.

[gehringer_2]

14 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

The biggest problem with Greene was his 29% k rate which is huge for someone with a .109 ISO.  I think he'll improve on that next year, but that's an ugly k rate.  

His highest K rate in a month was his 2nd month - Aug at 34%, but in Sept it dropped to 27% and his August walk rate of 5% doubled to 11%. (about 125 PA in each month so not a great SS but enough to be more than pure noise for K rate I think). So the good part is that his zone control managed to finish the season on a rising, or at least non-falling trajectory, which I think is generally a good sign for a 1st year player. Of course, since it wasn't a full season he maybe didn't have to deal with as much end season fatigue as he might otherwise have had to absent the injury.

And I know we aren't supposed to be swayed by the visuals, but the other thing is that if you compared Riley to Torkelson, Riley appeared to compete pretty consistently in his ABs, you couldn't say that for Spencer - who often appeared tentative/overmatched.

Edited January 29, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

 

[Longgone]

38 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

His highest K rate in a month was his 2nd month - Aug at 34%, but in Sept it dropped to 27% and his August walk rate of 5% doubled to 11%. (about 125 PA in each month so not a great SS but enough to be more than pure noise for K rate I think). So the good part is that his zone control managed to finish the season on a rising, or at least non-falling trajectory, which I think is generally a good sign for a 1st year player. Of course, since it wasn't a full season he maybe didn't have to deal with as much end season fatigue as he might otherwise have had to absent the injury.

And I know we aren't supposed to be swayed by the visuals, but the other thing is that if you compared Riley to Torkelson, Riley appeared to compete pretty consistently in his ABs, you couldn't say that for Spencer - who often appeared tentative/overmatched.

Whereas Torkelson improved his k-rate from 25% to 21%, and hard hit rate from 29% to 37% from the first half to the second. 

He also suffered a bit babip wise.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Longgone

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Whereas Torkelson improved his k-rate from 25% to 21%, and hard hit rate from 29% to 37% from the first half to the second. 

No doubt, Tork was noticeably better upon being called up later in the summer.

[casimir]

On 1/27/2023 at 9:22 PM, chasfh said:

At the time I posted, which was before reading microline’s replies, it seemed within the realm of possibility that had we called Thompson up, he could have done up to and including as well for us as he did for the Dodgers, and that might have been worth a decent enough return to make a deal with someone. A flyer pitcher and a flyer hitter, maybe. Concluding that he was terrible before this year so there was no possibility he could have been any good to us this year seemed to me a baffling position to dig your heels in on. In the case of Trayce Thompson as explained by microline, all of this is now moot. 

There's no doubt those kinds of arrangements exist.  It doesn't seem much different than a minor league with a spring training invite and an out after spring training and/or some time after that (maybe 30 days of the minor league deal).

Its not really a baffling position to consider that a 31 year old 4A player with very little for a MLB resume wouldn't have much trade value.  Do you know of deals in the past where a similarly skilled and credentialed player has been moved for something of substance?

[casimir]

Michael Wacha Seeking A Two-Year Deal

Should the Tigers be on Wacha Watch?

[casimir]

I think one of the things to keep in mind regarding Greene and Torkelson is how awful the Tigers' offense was as a whole last season.  Granted, the lineup wasn't exactly filled with quality major league hitters, especially later in the season.  But given that environment, its probably tough for rookies (one who missed a chunk of the early season due to injury, the other who doesn't have much professional experience at all) to perform well at the plate.  The Tigers fired one hitting coach and reassigned the other.  That's probably more than just a cosmetic move by a new front office.

I think there's some cause for concern given the previous regime and the questionable prospect development.  Both were drafted where they were expected to go.  Greene was considered a top tier prospect and Torkelson was pretty much the top prospect, right?  I would think both are still young enough that with the correct instruction, they can still have good careers.  We've seen the flashes from Greene while in Detroit.  Torkelson had a pretty darn good 2021 season and 2022 was tough.  Both are still in their early 20s, so they're still learning the game.  2022 was frustrating as hell, but I'm still optimistic for both.

[casimir]

22 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Also, this is a Message Board... unless our names are 'Scott Harris', just about everything discussed is moot

If Harris were wise, he'd have this place on mute.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Longgone said:

Whereas Torkelson improved his k-rate from 25% to 21%, and hard hit rate from 29% to 37% from the first half to the second. 

He also suffered a bit babip wise.

Yeah, I do think Tork was picking it up at the end, but things like hard hit rate suffer from small sample size issues - he only had 21 hits in Sept so one or two events can drive that a lot. He also hit 3 HR which helped his stats a lot, but is 3 HR real or noise? Hope it's real but as evidence it's not like a couple hundred AB at a higher OBP!  Since K and walk rate are based right off PA with gives you a larger sample for those I think the you have stronger evidence with what we are looking for in Geene's case - which is all about K rate. Maybe not a whole lot more, but statistically speaking I think the evidence is better because K and walk rate are probably the fastest stats to stabilize and it was K rate that Lee, and the rest of us, worry about with Greene. OTOH,Torkelson's calling card has always been a good K and walk rates - Spencer "just" needs to hit the ball for safeties a lot more when he hits it.

Barrel's are great but it at some point it has to translate to making fewer outs. Maybe he's was getting there and the results are just lagging because of noise. Just saying I don't think he got enough AB to prove much in that regard at the end of last season.

[Longgone]

53 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yeah, I do think Tork was picking it up at the end, but things like hard hit rate suffer from small sample size issues - he only had 21 hits in Sept so one or two events can drive that a lot. He also hit 3 HR which helped his stats a lot, but is 3 HR real or noise? Hope it's real but as evidence it's not like a couple hundred AB at a higher OBP!  Since K and walk rate are based right off PA with gives you a larger sample for those I think the you have stronger evidence with what we are looking for in Geene's case - which is all about K rate. Maybe not a whole lot more, but statistically speaking I think the evidence is better because K and walk rate are probably the fastest stats to stabilize and it was K rate that Lee, and the rest of us, worry about with Greene. OTOH,Torkelson's calling card has always been a good K and walk rates - Spencer "just" needs to hit the ball for safeties a lot more when he hits it.

Barrel's are great but it at some point it has to translate to making fewer outs. Maybe he's was getting there and the results are just lagging because of noise. Just saying I don't think he got enough AB to prove much in that regard at the end of last season.

Torkelson suffered poor luck compared to Greene, and any discussion of production stats like WAR and OPS+ that don't acknowledge that are disingenuous. BABIP will stabilize over time. Both will have career BABIP a bit over .300, Greenes should be higher, but not that much.

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Torkelson suffered poor luck compared to Greene, and any discussion of production stats like WAR and OPS+ that don't acknowledge that are disingenuous. BABIP will stabilize over time. Both will have career BABIP a bit over .300, Greenes should be higher, but not that much.

Part of Torkelson's bad luck was he didn't get enough elevation on a lot of the balls he hit the hardest. That always makes me wonder if a guy is trying too hard to lift the ball and as a result is chronically missing a bit and hitting the bottom half. His swing path gave him plenty of elevation on the way up through college and the minors so I hope he didn't feel he needed to start overdoing it.

Edited January 29, 2023 by gehringer_2