2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Tigermojo]

I'm hopeful that Rogers can regain his arm strength and work with the trainers in the off season. He was playing well before he was injured.

[chasfh]

I’m not so sure we need to fix shortstop. I think if things break better than average, Baez is within shouting distance of four wins, and if we can fix Schoop’s bat to where he’s within 90% wins of where he just was, he could maybe hit three wins. Not a prediction or guarantee but I do think it’s well within the scope of probability. 

[Tenacious D]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I’m not so sure we need to fix shortstop. I think if things break better than average, Baez is within shouting distance of four wins, and if we can fix Schoop’s bat to where he’s within 90% wins of where he just was, he could maybe hit three wins. Not a prediction or guarantee but I do think it’s well within the scope of probability. 

We’ll agree to disagree.  Baez could have easily had close to 40 throwing errors last season (thanks, Tork).  Unless he is willing to address, he should move over to 2B.

[gehringer_2]

49 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

I'm hopeful that Rogers can regain his arm strength and work with the trainers in the off season. He was playing well before he was injured.

His arm is certainly an unknown, but his bat is a bigger one. He still hasn't played enough at the MLB level (255 PA) to have any confidence he can keep his head above water against MLB pitching.

[Tenacious D]

“Can’t hit, can’t throw.  What can he do?”

-Adam Ant

[chasfh]

I guess I’m just not so willing to conclude that all these players we have on the roster are simply done done at young ages one year after they have good seasons. Jeimer done done at 28? Schoop done done at 30? Perhaps even Javy done done at 29? All of them, each one, unfixable? I’m just not there on these guys yet. A whole year is a long time to see them suck and it’s easy to conclude the worst. I guess I just need to see at least one more year from them to get on that bandwagon. Especially since they all had seasons as good as or better than Austin Meadows did in 2021 and no one here is writing him off. I think any or all of them could recover and have as good a year in 2023 that they had in 2021. Maybe Scott Harris doesn’t agree and he’s gonna let some or all of them all go, but for any of them he’s gives another chance to, I’m in for the ride.

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I guess I’m just not so willing to conclude that all these players we have on the roster are simply done done at young ages one year after they have good seasons. Jeimer done done at 28? Schoop done done at 30? Perhaps even Javy done done at 29? All of them, each one, unfixable? I’m just not there on these guys yet. A whole year is a long time to see them suck and it’s easy to conclude the worst. I guess I just need to see at least one more year from them to get on that bandwagon. Especially since they all had seasons as good as or better than Austin Meadows did in 2021 and no one here is writing him off. I think any or all of them could recover and have as good a year in 2023 that they had in 2021. Maybe Scott Harris doesn’t agree and he’s gonna let some or all of them all go, but for any of them he’s gives another chance to, I’m in for the ride.

I agree on all but Jeimer. He has actually never put up >250 good AB at a stretch so I tend to think that of all of them, his prior performance peaks are most likely to have been fool's gold. Escpecially since his calling card in his best year was doubles, which always seem to be the least reprodicible accomplishment for a hitter..

Edited November 1, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Cruzer1]

44 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I agree on all but Jeimer. He has actually never put up >250 good AB at a stretch so I tend to think that of all of them, his prior performance peaks are most likely to have been fool's gold. Escpecially since his calling card in his best year was doubles, which always seem to be the least reprodicible accomplishment for a hitter..

We just need a year to scrap for this position. IMO, the big priority is to get Keith ready for ML in 2024.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I guess I’m just not so willing to conclude that all these players we have on the roster are simply done done at young ages one year after they have good seasons. Jeimer done done at 28? Schoop done done at 30? Perhaps even Javy done done at 29? All of them, each one, unfixable? I’m just not there on these guys yet. A whole year is a long time to see them suck and it’s easy to conclude the worst. I guess I just need to see at least one more year from them to get on that bandwagon. Especially since they all had seasons as good as or better than Austin Meadows did in 2021 and no one here is writing him off. I think any or all of them could recover and have as good a year in 2023 that they had in 2021. Maybe Scott Harris doesn’t agree and he’s gonna let some or all of them all go, but for any of them he’s gives another chance to, I’m in for the ride.

I am also not done with the three you mention.  I would like to see them replace Reyes and the Castros with different types players though.  

[casimir]

52 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I agree on all but Jeimer. He has actually never put up >250 good AB at a stretch so I tend to think that of all of them, his prior performance peaks are most likely to have been fool's gold. Escpecially since his calling card in his best year was doubles, which always seem to be the least reprodicible accomplishment for a hitter..

Isn't it common for most ballplayers to go through peaks and valleys throughout an extended period?

Candelario has had some polar opposite seasons.  The defensive issues from last season are bothersome.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I agree on all but Jeimer. He has actually never put up >250 good AB at a stretch so I tend to think that of all of them, his prior performance peaks are most likely to have been fool's gold. Escpecially since his calling card in his best year was doubles, which always seem to be the least reprodicible accomplishment for a hitter..

Granting your characterization of the up and down nature of his performance, even given that, Jeimer would have placed fourth among regular third baseman in wRC+ in 2020, and did place ninth among regular third basemen in 2021.

I’m not yet willing to look at his ups and downs and say, his ups are only mirages and he’s only real when he’s down. Seems like wishful thinking to me. That a hitter is not worth keeping because he sometimes has down periods strikes me as setting the bar too high.

[mtutiger]

38 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I am also not done with the three you mention.  I would like to see them replace Reyes and the Castros with different types players though.  

It would be really nice if they replaced the Castros and Reyes with players who could actually push some of the starters for playing time if the starters in question aren't pulling their weight.

Probably not so much with Javy because of his long term deal, but Candy/Schoop maybe need to feel the heat a little bit if they are brought back.

Edited November 1, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

48 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Granting your characterization of the up and down nature of his performance, even given that, Jeimer would have placed fourth among regular third baseman in wRC+ in 2020, and did place ninth among regular third basemen in 2021.

I’m not yet willing to look at his ups and downs and say, his ups are only mirages and he’s only real when he’s down. Seems like wishful thinking to me. That a hitter is not worth keeping because he sometimes has down periods strikes me as setting the bar too high.

It's not just that it's up and down though, it's that with only a single exception, the sum of his ups and down over a full season don't amount to a good full season. Ups and downs but still finish with a +OPS over 500-600 PA is what you want. I don't think Jeimer has shown he can ever do that.

[oblong]

doesn't it come down to how much they think the poor performance was due to the ability of the coaching/front office staff to provide the support a player needs beyond their own ability?  They made some changes to the staffs so they saw a deficiency.  If they see a connection then they'll consider keeping them.  If they feel confident they can upgrade then they'll do that, or a mixture of both.

 

[chasfh]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's not just that it's up and down though, it's that with only a single exception, the sum of his ups and down over a full season don't amount to a good full season. Ups and downs but still finish with a +OPS over 500-600 PA is what you want. I don't think Jeimer has shown he can ever do that.

Care to take another crack at this one? 😉

[chasfh]

12 minutes ago, oblong said:

doesn't it come down to how much they think the poor performance was due to the ability of the coaching/front office staff to provide the support a player needs beyond their own ability?  They made some changes to the staffs so they saw a deficiency.  If they see a connection then they'll consider keeping them.  If they feel confident they can upgrade then they'll do that, or a mixture of both.

 

Some folks insist that the problem had to have been with the players (Jeimer, Schoop, et al.) because they hit decently in 2021 and collapsed in 2022, and we had Scott Coolbaugh here for both.

To your point, a player doesn't need the hitting coach to step in and fix things when he's hitting well. The player needs the hitting coach to step in and help him when he's struggling. Apparently, Scott Coolbaugh was a fine hitting coach when he didn't have to actually coach.

 

[chasfh]

This does not worry me in the least.

 

 

[HeyAbbott]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

I guess I’m just not so willing to conclude that all these players we have on the roster are simply done done at young ages one year after they have good seasons. Jeimer done done at 28? Schoop done done at 30? Perhaps even Javy done done at 29? All of them, each one, unfixable? I’m just not there on these guys yet. A whole year is a long time to see them suck and it’s easy to conclude the worst. I guess I just need to see at least one more year from them to get on that bandwagon. Especially since they all had seasons as good as or better than Austin Meadows did in 2021 and no one here is writing him off. I think any or all of them could recover and have as good a year in 2023 that they had in 2021. Maybe Scott Harris doesn’t agree and he’s gonna let some or all of them all go, but for any of them he’s gives another chance to, I’m in for the ride.

While I tend to agree with this in principle, I think that there are required changes to make this team better. We have a team that has been mired in sub mediocrity for rapidly almost a decade. Are there any changes that we can agree upon that need to be made? Reading through this thread, one could almost think that we have been talking about a 90 win team.

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, HeyAbbott said:

While I tend to agree with this in principle, I think that there are required changes to make this team better. We have a team that has been mired in sub mediocrity for rapidly almost a decade. Are there any changes that we can agree upon that need to be made? Reading through this thread, one could almost think that we have been talking about a 90 win team.

Here's my prediction from the beginning of the thread, which I still stand by:

I believe Drew Hutchison and Ali Sanchez are the only guys in this list already decided upon, and so far, I'm 1-for-2.

Otherwise, do you agree with any of this?

Edited November 1, 2022 by chasfh

[SoCalTiger]

Scott Harris's decision on Jeimer will be telling. I hope he is resourceful enough to present a better option.

[sabretooth]

Chris could choose to push for a 90 win team but he'd have to spend a lot more $$ than he's ever done before, and I don't see that happening now or ever. 

In fact, if Harris is successful in building an above average (85-90 win) team somehow without at least an average or above average payroll for a year or two, Chris (and a bunch of other people) would take that as prima facie evidence that you can win on the cheap (which is true for 2 or 3 teams, but not for the rest).  The winning probably would not last with a below average payroll, and it would probably fall back to mediocrity or worse, as it did in KC after their brief flirt with success.

If on the other hand, Harris is not successful in building a fairly consistent above average team with a below average payroll, Chris will at some point fire him and replace him with another GM and ask him to do the highly improbable/impossible.

Either way, I don't see Harris building a fairly consistent above average team with a consistently below average payroll.

I suspect what is more doable for Harris is a team that wins 75-80 games most of the time, and every 3rd or 4th year eeks into winning territory and they rent a player or two via ASB trade to try and make the playoffs in those years, and every so often stumbles into the 60s.  After a decade of conditioning fans to accept a crappy product (reinforced by near-constant failure from the other professional Detroit franchises), that will probably be Chris's (and the fans') measure of "success", I would guess.

We are starting to feel like Kansas City or St. Louis, but without the Chiefs or the Cardinals.  Blech.

Edited November 1, 2022 by sabretooth

[sabretooth]

Bottom line is I'm feeling about Chris WRT to the Tigers the same way I feel about SFH and the Lions.  It's just not gonna work from a winning standpoint until they sell.

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Bottom line is I'm feeling about Chris WRT to the Tigers the same way I feel about SFH and the Lions.  It's just not gonna work from a winning standpoint until they sell.

I suppose it's a distinct possibility that Baby Doc is looking for a Tampa Bay situation: get to the playoffs, even World Series, on a regular basis without having to spend to acquire or keep players, for the personal purpose of establishing respectability as a baseball tycoon, which you can't achieve if you're averaging literally 98 losses a year.

My time is starting to run out, and I have only so many reboots left to live through. Since there are no signs Baby Doc is gonna sell, I'm left to root for the idea that's wrong and he is gonna spend when the time comes.

[HeyAbbott]

32 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Here's my prediction from the beginning of the thread, which I still stand by:

I believe Drew Hutchison and Ali Sanchez are the only guys in this list already decided upon, and so far, I'm 1-for-2.

Otherwise, do you agree with any of this?

I am 99% in line with the guys you have leaving. The one exception is Miggy, and I want him gone immediately. With the position players we have, Haase, Greene, Tork, and Carpenter are probably what I look to build around.  With everything else, if another and better option can be found, take it. I am leaning toward keeping Schoop and replacing Candy. My gut says we aren't going to get an average mlb performance from Candy in '23.

[HeyAbbott]

29 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I suppose it's a distinct possibility that Baby Doc is looking for a Tampa Bay situation: get to the playoffs, even World Series, on a regular basis without having to spend to acquire or keep players, for the personal purpose of establishing respectability as a baseball tycoon, which you can't achieve if you're averaging literally 98 losses a year.

My time is starting to run out, and I have only so many reboots left to live through. Since there are no signs Baby Doc is gonna sell, I'm left to root for the idea that's wrong and he is gonna spend when the time comes.

I am very much buoyed up given the front office changes on the scouting and development side, as this area of the Tigers has been horrible since 1973. They simply haven't been able to identify, attract, obtain, train, and retain quality players strongly enough to win. Monet is important, but it will take only so far if the rest of the organization is a fucked up mess.