2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[SoCalTiger]

Best bullpen arm gone but we might get him back. 

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Speaking of semantics—just because they call it a "rebuild" does not mean it's an actual rebuild.

The Avila regime paid no attention to the lower rounds of the draft....

A-Hah! Now I get it... you're just lying...

Let's see: 

Tarik Skubal - 9th round, 2018.

Kerry Carpenter - 19th round, 2019.

Beau Brieske - 27th round, 2019.

Kyle Funkhauser - 4th round, 2016

There are lots of others, but, yeah...

Avila paid "NO ATTENTION" to the lower rounds.

Please stop lying.

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

The Avila regime ... were underrepresented in the Latin American AFA market...

2022: Javier Osorio, $2.2 million. Samuel Gil, $1.2 million, Josue Breceno $800K, Heison Sanchez $800K.

2021: Christian Santana, $2.95 million, Abel Bastidas, $1.175 million.

2020 (held off till 2021 due to pandemic)

2019: Roberto Campos, $2.85 million.

2018: Jose De La Cruz, $1.8 million, Adinso Reyes, $1.45 million.

Represented, or underrepresented does NOT preclude them from signing international free agents. Whether you like that or not. Whether you like the signings or not.

 

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

... did not make trades to build the team for the future...

What?

Avila traded Justin Wilson and Alex Avila for Jeimer Candelario (23 yo) and Isaac Paredes (18 yo). That was a trade for the future.

Avila traded Michael Fulmer for Reese Olson (22 yo). That was a trade for the future.

Avila traded Shane Greene for Joey Wentz (21 yo) and Travis Demeritte. That was a trade for the future.

He had others too.

Again... you're just lying.

 

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

... Come on, give up and finally admit it: the Tigers were... Anything positive they get coming from the prior regime is not the residue of good planning—it's the result of no-plan-having luck.

I see. No matter what Avila's players turn out to be, even if championship level... you're just going to call it luck in order to discredit Avila. Got it. That sounds like a political agenda/ political spin-doctoring. Not interested. This discussion is finished.

Go ahead and call it whatever you want to.

It was a rebuild.

Like it, love it, or hate it, it was a rebuild.

[casimir]

The Tigers had the worst record over the last seven years and now have a farm system in the lower third of MLB.  It was an absolute debacle.

[JackPine]

13 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

A-Hah! Now I get it... you're just lying...

Let's see: 

Tarik Skubal - 9th round, 2018.

Kerry Carpenter - 19th round, 2019.

Beau Brieske - 27th round, 2019.

Kyle Funkhauser - 4th round, 2016

There are lots of others, but, yeah...

Avila paid "NO ATTENTION" to the lower rounds.

Please stop lying.

2022: Javier Osorio, $2.2 million. Samuel Gil, $1.2 million, Josue Breceno $800K, Heison Sanchez $800K.

2021: Christian Santana, $2.95 million, Abel Bastidas, $1.175 million.

2020 (held off till 2021 due to pandemic)

2019: Roberto Campos, $2.85 million.

2018: Jose De La Cruz, $1.8 million, Adinso Reyes, $1.45 million.

Represented, or underrepresented does NOT preclude them from signing international free agents. Whether you like that or not. Whether you like the signings or not.

 

What?

Avila traded Justin Wilson and Alex Avila for Jeimer Candelario (23 yo) and Isaac Paredes (18 yo). That was a trade for the future.

Avila traded Michael Fulmer for Reese Olson (22 yo). That was a trade for the future.

Avila traded Shane Greene for Joey Wentz (21 yo) and Travis Demeritte. That was a trade for the future.

He had others too.

Again... you're just lying.

 

I see. No matter what Avila's players turn out to be, even if championship level... you're just going to call it luck in order to discredit Avila. Got it. That sounds like a political agenda/ political spin-doctoring. Not interested. This discussion is finished.

Go ahead and call it whatever you want to.

It was a rebuild.

Like it, love it, or hate it, it was a rebuild.

It was a rebuild, just a failed one

[1984Echoes]

Just now, JackPine said:

It was a rebuild, just a failed one

That's exactly what I'm saying.

And it changes from failure to not if the next playoff-level Tigers team is built primarily with Avila players.

I'm still on board with dumping Avila for Harris. I'm not advocating for Avila... he just wasn't good enough in multiple areas.

But the misrepresentations and personal fantasies and outright lies have me feeling I'm in the political forum instead of the Tigers forum...

[pyrotigers]

We have been the worst team in mlb for pretty much his entire reign, so if a few prospects work out I'll still be ok with saying he sucked 

You should find some prospects that work out when you're picking top ten every year 

[Jim Cowan]

They were not "trying to lose in order to improve their draft position" (i.e. "tanking"), that was never a strategy.  They were trying to build a stable, consistent long term winner and were just dreadful at it.

Nobody "tanks" in baseball, the draft picks aren't worth it.

[Tenacious D]

There is some talent in the org--it's not barren, just unproven and snake-bit.  Way too early to give up on the likes of Mize, Skubal, Manning, Turnbull, Tork and Greene, who've all seen the majors.  Javy Baez, Austin Meadows and ERod could all snap back. And I think there could be more help on the way, especially with an improved development approach, in the form of Colt Keith, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Perez, Parker Meadows, Josh Jung, Peyton Graham, Ty Madden, Brant Hurter, Dylan Smith, Jackson Jobe, etc.  Unfortunately, we aren't on the cusp (unless Harris can pull together an amazing Hail Mary this offseason) and will have to be patient for a few more years.

[casimir]

2 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

They were not "trying to lose in order to improve their draft position" (i.e. "tanking"), that was never a strategy.  They were trying to build a stable, consistent long term winner and were just dreadful at it.

Nobody "tanks" in baseball, the draft picks aren't worth it.

Didn't Houston do it successfully?  Granted they only scraped bottom for 3 seasons.

[Tenacious D]

3 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

They were not "trying to lose in order to improve their draft position" (i.e. "tanking"), that was never a strategy.  They were trying to build a stable, consistent long term winner and were just dreadful at it.

Nobody "tanks" in baseball, the draft picks aren't worth it.

I categorize it as they weren't trying to lose, but also weren't driven to win.  As you mention, they bought into a philosophy of building a team could be a sustainable winner, but failed at executing this (and had some shitty luck along the way).

[Jim Cowan]

12 minutes ago, casimir said:

Didn't Houston do it successfully?  Granted they only scraped bottom for 3 seasons.

They did get Correa with a 1-1 pick in 2012, but the high picks after the rest of the 100 loss seasons didn't amount to much I don’t think.

[Tenacious D]

They showed a graphic in yesterday’s WS game that the Astros had four pitchers, who were key contributors, signed as international free agents (for $10K each).  

[Jim Cowan]

They made a terrific pick at #11  in 2011, George Springer, but that was after a 76-86 season.

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

A-Hah! Now I get it... you're just lying...

...

Please stop lying.

...

Again... you're just lying.

Well, at least I'm in good company here. It's no shame to be accused of lying by you.

13 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

This discussion is finished.

Fine, as you wish. I will give my closing argument and we can be done with it.

A rebuilding team moves aggressively into the Latin American market to find prospects. Under Avila, the Tigers signed fewer Latin AFAs than even the average MLB team.

A rebuilding team scours the non-Latin markets for players. The Avila Tigers acquired exactly zero players outside of three countries, and that includes none from actual baseball countries like Colombia, Mexico, and Panama.

A rebuilding team also scours the waiver wire for freely-available talent. The Avila Tigers fielded fewer players off the waiver wire than even the average team, an average which includes playoff teams, which have little need for the waiver wire. The Angels, Orioles, and Mariners fielded double the waiver-claimed players the Tigers did.

A rebuilding team trades current assets for actual prospects. The Tigers dumped so many All-Stars, future award winners, and future Hall of Famers for flotsam and jetsam that I don't really have to list them out here. Of the players you named as your shining examples of Avila's competent trading skills, only one is on the 40-man roster, and practically everyone here except me wants that guy gone. The rest are either out of the organization, still TBD, and Austin Meadows (acquired by trading Paredes AND a draft pick), which, who knows what's going on there.

A rebuilding team takes the draft beyond the first round seriously. Everyone pretty much knew who Avila was going to take with their high first picks, since every other team would have taken those guys as well. But beyond that it's been reported that the Tigers were "historically disorganized when it came to preparing for the draft", and they "would leave all the research and planning until 10 days before the draft and then do marathon sessions of discussion about who they would select.  One Front Office executive said they were all so tired near the end that there was always a rush just to get it over with."

Add this all up and we do not have the organized activities of a team in serious rebuild mode. We have the disparate, even desperate, acts of a team hardly trying at all and basically phoning it in.

No matter how many random examples get trotted out, the evidence is clear: Avila and the Tigers did not embark on a serious rebuild. They treaded water. They didn't plan for a carefully-considered rebuild—they basically winged it and hoped to get by and get lucky.

Now, finally, we have a PBO who will undertake the actual hard work, research, and preparation that the Avila regime either didn't know how to do, couldn't be bothered to do, or some combination of both.

Finally—a light at the end of the long, dark tunnel. 🤞

[KL2]

36 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

They made a terrific pick at #11  in 2011, George Springer, but that was after a 76-86 season.

Bregman

[Tenacious D]

anyone concerned with the Harris hire?  I feel that Tigers Twitter got physically aroused when this was announced, because he's 1) young 2) analytics guy and 3) not Avila.  Seemed like a lot of group-think taking place, but if you look at his performance objectively, it's hit or miss.  Clearly, SF had an amazing season in 2021, but that team seemed to overachieve and they fell significantly last season.  Red flag?  

Someone had posted the SF transactions during his tenure and they seemed a bit underwhelming.  Doesn't seem like they've had a ton of success via the draft.  

I hope I'm wrong, but I wish he had a more definitive track record of success--open to other perspectives.  Perhaps I've missed something critical, but I fear this has the potential to be similar to Dan Quinn with the Lions, when everyone was excited because he came from the Patriots, but was a failure when asked to replicate that type of success with another organization.

[KL2]

34 minutes ago, chasfh said:

and Austin Meadows (acquired by trading Paredes AND a draft 

I just want to quibble with this a bit. Nobody here complained at the time. Sure it sucks in hindight but do we really judge all deal in just that vacuum?

[KL2]

1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

anyone concerned with the Harris hire?  I feel that Tigers Twitter got physically aroused when this was announced, because he's 1) young 2) analytics guy and 3) not Avila.  Seemed like a lot of group-think taking place, but if you look at his performance objectively, it's hit or miss.  Clearly, SF had an amazing season in 2021, but that team seemed to overachieve and they fell significantly last season.  Red flag?  

Someone had posted the SF transactions during his tenure and they seemed a bit underwhelming.  Doesn't seem like they've had a ton of success via the draft.  

I hope I'm wrong, but I wish he had a more definitive track record of success--open to other perspectives.  Perhaps I've missed something critical, but I fear this has the potential to be similar to Dan Quinn with the Lions, when everyone was excited because he came from the Patriots, but was a failure when asked to replicate that type of success with another organization.

Could be. But, couldn't he also be the next Theo Epstein? goes both ways. 

Plus he's only been with the giants since 2019. Kind of hard to judge whether he had draft success or not in such a short time frame

[Tenacious D]

1 minute ago, KL2 said:

I just want to quibble with this a bit. Nobody here complained at the time. Sure it sucks in hindight but do we really judge all deal in just that vacuum?

agree--the reactions varied from we had fleeced Tampa Bay to Paredes didn't have a role, and Meadows filled a need.  No one could have predicted Candy's demise or Meadows physical and mental challenges.  I still don't think it's a lost trade--no reason to think that Meadows can't be a contributor next year.

[Tenacious D]

1 minute ago, KL2 said:

Could be. But, couldn't he also be the next Theo Epstein? goes both ways. 

Plus he's only been with the giants since 2019. Kind of hard to judge whether he had draft success or not in such a short time frame

that's fair, but I'm going by his limited track record.  It's hard for me to point to any of his specific accomplishments.

For the record, I'm optimistic that he'll be successful, but the faith that everyone has put in him seems a bit blind.  And fashionable.

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, KL2 said:

I just want to quibble with this a bit. Nobody here complained at the time. Sure it sucks in hindight but do we really judge all deal in just that vacuum?

I said at the time I liked the hubris of the deal and was fine with it not because I thought Meadows clearly had a better future than Paredes, which I did not and still do not believe, but because Paredes was never going to get a fair shot with the Tigers. He got less of a chance to make it here than Travis freaking Demeritte did, for cry eye ...

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

that's fair, but I'm going by his limited track record.  It's hard for me to point to any of his specific accomplishments.

For the record, I'm optimistic that he'll be successful, but the faith that everyone has put in him seems a bit blind.  And fashionable.

Is there someone else you'd prefer to have been hired for the role? Or, if not an actual person in mind, a preferred type versus Harris's type? Or are you concerned only about his lack of specific GM or PBO experience?

[Tenacious D]

Just now, chasfh said:

Is there someone else you'd prefer to have been hired for the role? Or, if not an actual person in mind, a preferred type versus Harris's type? Or are you concerned only about his lack of specific GM or PBO experience?

definitely didn't have anyone else in mind--not close enough to other team's front office personnel. and don't have any objections to his style/type.  just asking the question, because if I were a Giants fans, I'd be discouraged with what took place last year.  And we hired the architect of that team.  

not being negative, just seeking other perspectives.  this was a popular hire and I'm genuinely curious about what inspired that excitement.

[chasfh]

Just now, Tenacious D said:

definitely didn't have anyone else in mind--not close enough to other team's front office personnel. and don't have any objections to his style/type.  just asking the question, because if I were a Giants fans, I'd be discouraged with what took place last year.  And we hired the architect of that team.  

not being negative, just seeking other perspectives.  this was a popular hire and I'm genuinely curious about what inspired that excitement.

It's true that I'm basing my opinion of Scott Harris on his pedigree and the words he has said since being hired, and none at all on the fact that Chris Ilitch hired him or likes him. I am excited because his stated vision aligns with what I hoped the vision would turn to for this team in the post-Avila era. I am definitely giving Harris the benefit of the doubt, and will be disappointed and question him only once he has repeated failures due to lack of foresight, preparation, planning, or execution. Until then, all aboard!

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Could be. But, couldn't he also be the next Theo Epstein? goes both ways. 

Plus he's only been with the giants since 2019. Kind of hard to judge whether he had draft success or not in such a short time frame

This is a good point, and given his extensive time with the Cubs, I don't know how you can evaluate him solely on his time with the Giants. Theo actually vouched for him when he was hired.

I would also argue that his time with the Giants wasn't a failure either even though the results weren't there this year.