2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Jim Cowan]

56 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Not to worry, we have been assured that Correa will be forced to accept 3/87, and that will still be an overpay.

Well what do you think about 10/300?  Will he accept AAV under 34.1?

[Edman85]

2 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

There is no neighborhood called "South Detroit"...you fell for Journey's fake news

Whenever I hear that line I either shout "That's Canada!"

But, my dad grew up near farmland in southwest Wayne County. South Detroit, to me, is his childhood house that had a horse farm three doors down.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

There is no neighborhood called "South Detroit"...you fell for Journey's fake news

I've always wondered where/why they got that. Probably just that 'South' provides some alliteration with 'City' in the previous phrase.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

Well what do you think about 10/300?  Will he accept AAV under 34.1?

As of today, all we have to go off of is what he said last year, but I would bet there will be something more said in the next week or three about what his expectations are. It may also depend on whether other free agents like Bogaerts and Turner and Swanson set the market before him by signing first. Or maybe he sets the market for them, who knows. I don't know whether he ends up getting 10 and/or 300, but both are gettable. One thing I am pretty confident of: he'll beat 3/87.

[Jim Cowan]

32 minutes ago, chasfh said:

As of today, all we have to go off of is what he said last year, but I would bet there will be something more said in the next week or three about what his expectations are. It may also depend on whether other free agents like Bogaerts and Turner and Swanson set the market before him by signing first. Or maybe he sets the market for them, who knows. I don't know whether he ends up getting 10 and/or 300, but both are gettable. One thing I am pretty confident of: he'll beat 3/87.

It seems like making his expectations known did not work so well last time.  He just left 2/70 on the table too, it will be hard to accept AAV that is much lower than that.

I can't see him accepting 10/300.  That's only 11% more than the Tigers offered him, which would be quite a humiliation.  He needs to find another big money deal, one year plus options, and keep kicking free agency down the road one year at a time.

 

[KL2]

21 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

It seems like making his expectations known did not work so well last time.  He just left 2/70 on the table too, it will be hard to accept AAV that is much lower than that.

I can't see him accepting 10/300.  That's only 11% more than the Tigers offered him, which would be quite a humiliation.  He needs to find another big money deal, one year plus options, and keep kicking free agency down the road one year at a time.

 

Can't keep kicking it down, at some point you get old and the mega contract goes away. If someone offers him 10/300 he should take it as it's a guaranteed 300 million In the bank. Versus 37 million this year and nothing in the future if you blow out a knee.

Nobody offered it last year, and if someone does it's there. I doubt anyone will offer 10/375 as he gets old and older.

[Jim Cowan]

6 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Can't keep kicking it down, at some point you get old and the mega contract goes away. If someone offers him 10/300 he should take it as it's a guaranteed 300 million In the bank. Versus 37 million this year and nothing in the future if you blow out a knee.

Nobody offered it last year, and if someone does it's there. I doubt anyone will offer 10/375 as he gets old and older.

I agree, he should take 10/300 if it's offered.  

 

[RatkoVarda]

Seager signed for 10/325 starting his age 28 season; had a career 131 OPS+ at the time

Lindor signed for 10/341 ($50M deferred) starting his age 28 season; had a career 118 OPS+ at the time

Correa (career 129 OPS+) with be 28 next year; this is the year to get the big contract; he has been healthy; no QO unlike other 3 guys; still youngest player of the 4; 10/300 actually seems to be a little low, but he could not get what he wanted last year for whatever reason; after Judge and Sosa and Ohtani sign, 10/300 won't seem crazy.

[chasfh]

I don’t think he’ll take 10/300, either. I meant to say that both the 10 and the 300 were gettable, so it could be 10/375, or it could be 8/300 with triggers for two or three more years. Something along those lines.

[casimir]

The Phillies declined their $17M 2023 option for 2B Jean Segura.  Now, that isn't a name that wows anyone.  But what catches my eye with him is the well below league average SO% he possesses, consistently 10-15% throughout his career save for the abridged 2020 season.  There would be some aging risk as he'll be 33 to start next season.  But given Harris' mantra on controlling the strike zone and the question of Schoop's bat, is it a fit?

It doesn't seem likely to me, but I also don't know what to expect out of the Tigers this offseason.

Edited November 8, 2022 by casimir

[chasfh]

I’d be surprised if we ate Schoop’s salary and paid Segura whatever his going rate is, given he seems like a candidate for collapse himself. His GB rate is up, his hard hit rate is down, he chases a lot, his baserunning is trailing off, and he has had below-average walk rate basically throughout his career. He does seem to be a pretty good defender, though. Basically, he’s older Latino Jonathan Schoop.

[casimir]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I’d be surprised if we ate Schoop’s salary and paid Segura whatever his going rate is, given he seems like a candidate for collapse himself. His GB rate is up, his hard hit rate is down, he chases a lot, his baserunning is trailing off, and he has had below-average walk rate basically throughout his career. He does seem to be a pretty good defender, though. Basically, he’s older Latino Jonathan Schoop.

I know there have been suggestions here to move Schoop to 3B.  I don't necessarily see it, but who knows.  So, yes, they'd essentially be dumping Schoop for Segura, which seems suspect.  Or they could walk from Candelario, move Schoop, and sign a 2B (or a SS and move Baez to 2B, which seems doubtful to me).

I wouldn't think Segura gets more than a 2 year deal, maybe something similar or slightly higher than Schoop.  I don't know, just a guess.

[Motor City Sonics]

I don't think they're signing any big names at all this year.   They are going to continue signing guys to 1 year deals who are trying to prove they are worth more.     What do you do with your pitching.   A ton of young guys hurt who should be back next year.  A bunch of guys who looked really good at Double A last year but may not be ready, 3 starters right now in Eduardo, Tyler Alexander and Joey Wentz, who has his own injury history.    Spencer Turnbull?  Who knows.  A lot of guys coming off of TJ have a rough time at first, but he had a lot more recovery time (he probably could have pitched last year).  I am expecting Turnbull to end up a bullpen guy like Fulmer.    So that means you need to sign 2 starting pitchers but youi don't want to give any lengthy deals, so the guys that might do that are guys just trying to get it back.   

This year's offsesaon is really about the organization and fixing the hitters.   No way so many guys all have their worst years at the same time again and I think they can fix Torkelson.   A lot of good players had tough rookie years.    I don't expect massive turnover.   2 starting pitchers, a platoon catcher and an outfielder, none of them will be near the top of their positions of available free agents.  

I love what Harris has done so far.   

[chasfh]

If ZIPS is to be believed, I would rather have Schoop at 2B and Candelario at 3B than Segura-Schoop.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Motor City Sonics said:

This year's offsesaon is really about the organization and fixing the hitters.   No way so many guys all have their worst years at the same time again and I think they can fix Torkelson.   A lot of good players had tough rookie years.    I don't expect massive turnover.   2 starting pitchers, a platoon catcher and an outfielder, none of them will be near the top of their positions of available free agents.  

I love what Harris has done so far.   

The thing that concerns me about TORK! is that even with his historically bad rookie seasons, despite the explicit request from the new front office that he work on his swing this winter, he went on record to state he thinks his swing is just fine. That doesn't suggest concern or dedication to me. They had to force Adam Melheuse on him to get that done.

Here's what I mean by historically bad: there have been 196 rookie first basemen in the modern baseball era who logged 400+ plate appearances. TORK!'s wOBA ranked 194th on that list. It was so bad, his wOBA last year was worse than Dan Meyer 1975.

Here are the bottom ten in rookie 1B wOBA (400+ PA) since 2000:

• TORK! .272 DET 2022
• Daric Barton .303 OAK 2008
• Brandon Dixon .303 DET 2019
• Rowdy Tellez .308 TOR 2019
• Ronald Guzman .312 TEX 2018
• Ken Harvey .312 KCR 2003
• Pavin Smith .318 ARI 2021
• Niko Goodrum .322 DET 2018
• Mark Canha .323 OAK 2015
• Yonder Alonso .323 2012 SDP

The next ten names on the list aren't all that impressive, either.

Three things to say about this list:

1. How many of the guys on this list went on to have good careers after this? Setting aside TORK!, I see one out of nine.
2. Look at the separation between TORK!'s number and the second-worst guy. Jesus.
3. Three of the top ten. Fuckin' Tigers ...

[Motor City Sonics]

13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The thing that concerns me about TORK! is that even with his historically bad rookie seasons, despite the explicit request from the new front office that he work on his swing this winter, he went on record to state he thinks his swing is just fine. That doesn't suggest concern or dedication to me. They had to force Adam Melheuse on him to get that done.

Here's what I mean by historically bad: there have been 196 rookie first basemen in the modern baseball era who logged 400+ plate appearances. TORK!'s wOBA ranked 194th on that list. It was so bad, his wOBA last year was worse than Dan Meyer 1975.

Here are the bottom ten in rookie 1B wOBA (400+ PA) since 2000:

• TORK! .272 DET 2022
• Daric Barton .303 OAK 2008
• Brandon Dixon .303 DET 2019
• Rowdy Tellez .308 TOR 2019
• Ronald Guzman .312 TEX 2018
• Ken Harvey .312 KCR 2003
• Pavin Smith .318 ARI 2021
• Niko Goodrum .322 DET 2018
• Mark Canha .323 OAK 2015
• Yonder Alonso .323 2012 SDP

The next ten names on the list aren't all that impressive, either.

Three things to say about this list:

1. How many of the guys on this list went on to have good careers after this? Setting aside TORK!, I see one out of nine.
2. Look at the separation between TORK!'s number and the second-worst guy. Jesus.
3. Three of the top ten. Fuckin' Tigers ...

Just shows how broken this organization has been for years..........actually decades, but the 3 Tigers are from 2018, 2019 and 2022.    Ugh.      J.D. Martinez is about it. 

 

 

[chasfh]

28 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Just shows how broken this organization has been for years..........actually decades, but the 3 Tigers are from 2018, 2019 and 2022.    Ugh.      J.D. Martinez is about it. 

 

 

And of course, we didn't fix J.D. Martinez. He fixed himself!

[Motor City Sonics]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And of course, we didn't fix J.D. Martinez. He fixed himself!

But man,  Al spun that into Dawell Lugo, Jose King and Sergio Alcantara............Gold, Jerry.......Gold !

[gehringer_2]

54 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Here's what I mean by historically bad: there have been 196 rookie first basemen in the modern baseball era who logged 400+ plate appearances. TORK!'s wOBA ranked 194th on that list. It was so bad, his wOBA last year was worse than Dan Meyer 1975.

 

but any other team would have have sent him down so this is partly a function of the Tigers not having anyone else to play 1st. 

TBH - I'm not sure I have a problem with Tork's swing. I don't think his problem is so much his mechanics, my uninformed  opinion is that his problem is indecision. He can't hit the FB because he is late on it.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

but any other team would have have sent him down so this is partly a function of the Tigers not having anyone else to play 1st. 

TBH - I'm not sure I have a problem with Tork's swing. I don't think his problem is so much his mechanics, my uninformed  opinion is that his problem is indecision. He can't hit the FB because he is late on it.

You may not have a problem with his swing, and he himself may not have a problem with his swing, but the new front office had a problem with his swing, which is why they're forcing him even against his will to work with Melheuse.

[chasfh]

19 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Eeeeeeeek

I went into Ryan Garko's Twitter likes to see if there are any clues on pending hires. 

I'm less confident in his ability to think critically after that.

Can you share why, or share tweets as examples?

[SoCalTiger]

I think Harris will sign or trade for someone that can play third or first base. We will soon know with the roster crunch of the 15th looming if thats Candelerio or someone else. 

[oblong]

38 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Can you share why, or share tweets as examples?

Let’s just say he’s a fan of someone who, hat tip to @Edman85looks like Lee Corso. 

[theroundsquare]

16 minutes ago, oblong said:

Let’s just say he’s a fan of someone who, hat tip to @Edman85looks like Lee Corso. 

Mel Broooks?  That suggests good judgment to me 

[Motor City Sonics]

23 minutes ago, oblong said:

Let’s just say he’s a fan of someone who, hat tip to @Edman85looks like Lee Corso. 

Wait...........are you speaking of Bobby Valentine?   What's going on here?