2022-23 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Useful Idiot]

42 minutes ago, chasfh said:

We got an anti-Harris skeptic here. We need the balance. 

I think you are  making an abridged assessment.  What I have is acute skepticism for the will to win of this organization, that began with the salary dump disguised as a rebuild.

Harris has simply assumed the helm. The lies, if that ends up proving to be the case, are the organizations, Harris has just become the front man.

Let him prove me wrong.  But, so long as he's sputtering this gibberish, he's looking like pretty much the same as the old boss

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, microline133 said:

They weren't close at all...I mean, at all. Only fickle fans that think prospect development is linear had given up on him.

Sure... that's probably true...

But he was just barely above Mendoza until hitting Erie last year so visions of Rey Rivera were dancing in our heads which might lead to that kind of discouragement/ thinking...

 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

I think you are  making an abridged assessment.  What I have is acute skepticism for the will to win of this organization, that began with the salary dump disguised as a rebuild.

Harris has simply assumed the helm. The lies, if that ends up proving to be the case, are the organizations, Harris has just become the front man.

Let him prove me wrong.  But, so long as he's sputtering this gibberish, he's looking like pretty much the same as the old boss

I’m going in the other direction: I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt until he proves to be incompetent. 

[Longgone]

2 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

I think you are  making an abridged assessment.  What I have is acute skepticism for the will to win of this organization, that began with the salary dump disguised as a rebuild.

Harris has simply assumed the helm. The lies, if that ends up proving to be the case, are the organizations, Harris has just become the front man.

Let him prove me wrong.  But, so long as he's sputtering this gibberish, he's looking like pretty much the same as the old boss

Might want to give a guy more than a couple of weeks before being too judgemental.

[SoCalTiger]

I will go on the record that I think Harris is a great hire and will find himself at or near the top of all Heads of Baseball Operations. So far he has impacted the organization in many areas. 
 

Just my Buffalo 🦬 nickel. 

[oblong]

3 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

I think you are  making an abridged assessment.  What I have is acute skepticism for the will to win of this organization, that began with the salary dump disguised as a rebuild.

Harris has simply assumed the helm. The lies, if that ends up proving to be the case, are the organizations, Harris has just become the front man.

Let him prove me wrong.  But, so long as he's sputtering this gibberish, he's looking like pretty much the same as the old boss

He wouldn’t have taken the job if he was going to preside over that.  

[Edman85]

14 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't know if you would know this...

But before 2022, how close was the Tigers Org to giving up on Parker? Any idea on their thinking?

You don't acquire his brother if he isn't in the plans.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

You don't acquire his brother if he isn't in the plans.

The Tigers don’t acquire Austin Meadows if Parker Meadows isn’t in the plans?

[Cruzer1]

 

[StatikIEV]

This is just a quick observation, but I don't it is significant who Harris is, or what he's skills are at the moment, same for Hinch..and our other (now endless) coaches.

It's 2023 now, the team needs money.  We have a payroll of ~75 million for MLB-level players (Cabrera is, and has been dead money going on 6 years..so I dont count his ~32+8 tap this year).  Top ten is 160 million.  There is no amount of genius to make that up shortfall...this isn't 1995.  I can bump into a stranger near the stadium and have a 60 minute conversation about a player's wRC+, BABIP or xwOBA, or the the fact Riley Greene can't hit above average curve if his life depended on it (thankfully not many pitchers can throw it), or that Lange can't have Haase receive for him.

..so to suggest Harris, Hinch, or a zillion new faces can make a difference of more than a 2 or 3 extra wins in a year is, to me, a non-starter when 'Joe Fan' can easily understand deep fundamental truths, so front offices are all surely much further still.  Sure, there is still that fraction of special knowledge out there that can eek out a little something extra (like acquiring players best suited to the new rules), but the days of the front office being worth big bucks are over IMO.

Look at the top nine payrolls for next year...basically the list of the top 9 clubs, with a couple just outside the list.  We had a few decades of throwing out the bathwater of old-timey thinking, so lower payroll clubs could compete every other year as an outlier...but that's gone.  We are back to big payrolls = results.

Nutshell:  Tigers success hinges solely on the Pizza Guy spending ~90 million more.  (Possibly 70 million if one of our hard-tanked for #1s turns into a #1)

 

IMO

[Cruzer1]

I don't believe that you can build a team with free agents. Sprinkle one in here or there, or hit it big with one, but to win in today's MLB you have to have good value from every dollar you spend. Check the value charts on Fangraphs. The Tigers have less value right now than other teams.

[Tiger337]

12 hours ago, Edman85 said:

You don't acquire his brother if he isn't in the plans.

I can kind of see the opposite: "keep Parker around longer" as a favor to Austin.  Not picking up Austin because Parker isn't good enough seems like a stretch.     

Edited November 24, 2022 by Tiger337

[RandyMarsh]

1 hour ago, Cruzer1 said:

I don't believe that you can build a team with free agents. Sprinkle one in here or there, or hit it big with one, but to win in today's MLB you have to have good value from every dollar you spend. Check the value charts on Fangraphs. The Tigers have less value right now than other teams.

I don't think you can win through FA just cause usually by the time you sign a guy to FA he is on the downward trend of his career and isn't all that good.  The Phillies made the WS almost soley based on their FA signings of Harper, Realmuto, Wheeler, Schwarber, Castellanos among others but they got elite production from them aside from Nick. If you can manage to do that you can win no matter what the "value" is but the problem is that is extremely unlikely. 

[Useful Idiot]

On 11/23/2022 at 6:46 PM, chasfh said:

I’m going in the other direction: I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt until he proves to be incompetent. 

That's fine. You're entitled to as much optimism as you can stomach.   When he starts adding talent of sufficient caliber that gives me no alternative than to re-evaluate, I might even jump up on the bandwagon with you.

But, for however long it appears that "cheap and controllable" is the organization's guiding light, I'm gonna be cynical.

My suspicion is that Harris hopes the merely shuffling the deck will get us close enough to .500 that he can take a bow, without spending too much pizza money.

[Useful Idiot]

23 hours ago, oblong said:

He wouldn’t have taken the job if he was going to preside over that.  

I'm not crystal clear what you are referring to by "that".......but I'm assuming you mean serving in a subordinate role?

Let's  see what kind of leadership Mr Harris displays between now and opening day. He's got  replacements to make for  Harold Castro, Victor Reyes, and Candalerio.......lets see if his priorities go for "proven production", or for "cheap and controllable".

My guess is he will go for the latter, like the obedient lap dog Mr I wants him to be.   Let him prove me wrong.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[Useful Idiot]

How long did it take for Dombrowski to get to the world series with the Marlins? With the Tigers? With the Red Sox? With the Phillies?   How much slack do we "owe" Harris? If he's still here  in 6 years promising we are "right on the cusp" of contending, is it okay to call him a failure then?  BECAUSE I SINCERELY BELIEVE that he's gonna be hamstrung by Chris's obsession in being "the next KC Royals"  such that our payroll isn't gonna even sniff $200 million/year again in my lifetime

I think Chris sees himself as "the smart little pig" who is (somehow)  gonna win a WS on a shoestring

Edited November 25, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[RandyMarsh]

26 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

How long did it take for Dombrowski to get to the world series with the Marlins? With the Tigers? With the Red Sox? With the Phillies?   How much slack do we "owe" Harris? If he's still here  in 6 years promising we are "right on the cusp" of contending, is it okay to call him a failure then?  BECAUSE I SINCERELY BELIEVE that he's gonna be hamstrung by Chris's obsession in being "the next KC Royals"  such that our payroll isn't gonna even sniff $200 million/year again in my lifetime

I think Chris sees himself as "the smart little pig" who is (somehow)  gonna win a WS on a shoestring

The Red Sox won the World Series a year before he got there, he inherited a WS team and a then number 1 farm system in baseball and then he had to spend a half million on the best bat(s) and starter available in baseball, he won that WS off the backs of people before him and his owners pockets. The Phillies it took him spending nearly 3/4 of a billion dollars on FAs to get there, and even then they only won 80 some games in the regular season.  

[Useful Idiot]

See?  What I think that Ilitch believes, is that a "smart" team president is gonna win him a trophy with a team payroll less than the league average.  And when Avila failed to deliver that, replace him. When Harris fails to do that, "well, I guess he wasn't very smart either"...rinse...lather...repeat etc

 

All the while the fans are lead along like stooges, being relentlessly promised that with each new iteration,  we are turning the corner.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[Useful Idiot]

2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

he won that WS off the backs of people before him and his owners pockets. 

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Useful Idiot said:

That's fine. You're entitled to as much optimism as you can stomach.

Gee, thanks, sport.

1 hour ago, Useful Idiot said:

When he starts adding talent of sufficient caliber that gives me no alternative than to re-evaluate, I might even jump up on the bandwagon with you.

But, for however long it appears that "cheap and controllable" is the organization's guiding light, I'm gonna be cynical.

My suspicion is that Harris hopes the merely shuffling the deck will get us close enough to .500 that he can take a bow, without spending too much pizza money.

If Scott Harris fields the same team on March 30 that makes up the 40-man roster today, I will join you in your criticism.

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, Useful Idiot said:

How long did it take for Dombrowski to get to the world series with the Marlins? With the Tigers? With the Red Sox? With the Phillies?   How much slack do we "owe" Harris? If he's still here  in 6 years promising we are "right on the cusp" of contending, is it okay to call him a failure then?  BECAUSE I SINCERELY BELIEVE that he's gonna be hamstrung by Chris's obsession in being "the next KC Royals"  such that our payroll isn't gonna even sniff $200 million/year again in my lifetime

I think Chris sees himself as "the smart little pig" who is (somehow)  gonna win a WS on a shoestring

Not Useful

[Jim Cowan]

Chris Ilitch wants to be left out of the baseball decision making.  He's already approved a payroll budget for 2023 that Harris approves of, or Harris wouldn't be here.  

[oblong]

2 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

I'm not crystal clear what you are referring to by "that".......but I'm assuming you mean serving in a subordinate role?

Let's  see what kind of leadership Mr Harris displays between now and opening day. He's got  replacements to make for  Harold Castro, Victor Reyes, and Candalerio.......lets see if his priorities go for "proven production", or for "cheap and controllable".

My guess is he will go for the latter, like the obedient lap dog Mr I wants him to be.   Let him prove me wrong.

What you are not factoring in is the “why”.  There’s a difference between “go cheap because we are cheap” and “go cheap because it doesn’t matter right now longterm due to our plans”.  We don’t get paid here to know the answers.   It would be very short sighted to judge him after one season.  Someone like Harris is gonna go where he can execute his plans and ideas. He had no reason to leave his job to be a lapdog for a horrible owner. 

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

How long did it take for Dombrowski to get to the world series with the Marlins? With the Tigers? With the Red Sox? With the Phillies?   How much slack do we "owe" Harris? If he's still here  in 6 years promising we are "right on the cusp" of contending, is it okay to call him a failure then?  BECAUSE I SINCERELY BELIEVE that he's gonna be hamstrung by Chris's obsession in being "the next KC Royals"  such that our payroll isn't gonna even sniff $200 million/year again in my lifetime

I think Chris sees himself as "the smart little pig" who is (somehow)  gonna win a WS on a shoestring

Four years.

[HeyAbbott]

Scott Harris does not strike me as the lapdog type.

The Tigers, like any other organization, need to identify, attract, obtain, train, and retain solid personnel. They carry a very poor record at identifying and training personnel as the last 40 years testify to.  Because they cannot identify quality players, even when they have spent in the past, they have had woefully horrible rosters.

The organization has been incredibly bad at developing the meager talent they have been able to obtain. For a sustained run as a mediocre team (81 wins) , an MLB team has to be able to add 3 position players every year to its roster to stay mediocre, say nothing of improve. The number of actual MLB position players that the farm system has produced since the early 1980's is horrid.

There has been a lot of bad spending decisions in the MLB over the last 40 years as well.

As I see things, Harris has made an attempt to address the glaring ineptitude that has been the Detroit Tigers. Let's see what happens. Let's see what happens on his hold 'em or fold 'em decisions. That will tell us a lot. I still think there will be some free agent siginings of note. But at least let's give the guy some time.