2022 MLB Postseason Thread

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

to clarify, Jim Cowan always speaks for me.  He has my unconditional proxy on all of my personal affairs, including responding here.

Terrific. Good to know. 😉😅

16 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

In your example no of course he wouldn't take an extra $10 million over 10 years.  Change your example to where the losing team offers an extra $100 million...now what?

So you agree that players take other considerations such as winning organization into account, and that they do not always take the offer that’s simply the most money, which was the original hypothesis. I’m on board with that idea as well. Now we’re just negotiating to what degree.

[Tenacious D]

28 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Terrific. Good to know. 😉😅

So you agree that players take other considerations such as winning organization into account, and that they do not always take the offer that’s simply the most money, which was the original hypothesis. I’m on board with that idea as well. Now we’re just negotiating to what degree.

actually, what started all of this was your assertion that Correa would not come to Detroit given their recent performance. Which I disagree with--again, if he faces similar limited opportunities as he did last offseason, and the Tigers are willing to make the commitment and investment he is looking for, I believe we are a very viable option for him.  Not dissimilar to the situations that both Pudge and Ordonez were in when they both signed.

[oblong]

Don't forget tax implications when considering "the most money". In some cases the money might be more in terms of contract but when you factor in the state and local taxes it might not be the most money for the player. 

and every player is different.  Some might go closer to home.  Some might go to the highest bidder if there's not much difference in the organization because they want to do their part to lift the rising tide for the guys coming after them.  I don't think as a whole they will always go to the highest bidder.  Many if not most will.  But not all.

 

[Tenacious D]

1 minute ago, oblong said:

Don't forget tax implications when considering "the most money". In some cases the money might be more in terms of contract but when you factor in the state and local taxes it might not be the most money for the player. 

and every player is different.  Some might go closer to home.  Some might go to the highest bidder if there's not much difference in the organization because they want to do their part to lift the rising tide for the guys coming after them.  I don't think as a whole they will always go to the highest bidder.  Many if not most will.  But not all.

 

I don't disagree with this--Chafin is a great example, as he wanted to be close to Ohio.  I seriously doubt that Correa circled Minneapolis on the map and said, "I really want to be there."  It came down to his best, and likely, only option.  If Correa's market this offseason is very different than last year's, he might take other things into consideration.  I don't think his prospects will be that much improved, if at all.  He's again in a crowded class of elite free agent shortstops, and there really aren't a lot of teams in need of one, depending on where everyone lands.

[JackPine]

4 minutes ago, oblong said:

Don't forget tax implications when considering "the most money". In some cases the money might be more in terms of contract but when you factor in the state and local taxes it might not be the most money for the player. 

and every player is different.  Some might go closer to home.  Some might go to the highest bidder if there's not much difference in the organization because they want to do their part to lift the rising tide for the guys coming after them.  I don't think as a whole they will always go to the highest bidder.  Many if not most will.  But not all.

 

Personally, once we're talking hundreds of millions I wouldn't care. It's more money than I'd ever know what to do with. I'd take 200M over 300M if it was the right place, people, location, culture etc. Maybe I'm an oddball but I'm guessing there are players that feel similarly.

I know players have agents to pay, a legacy to build, a duty to the union and are competitive to their core but life isn't all about money and that has to be clear to at least SOME players. (Although, my guess is Correa isn't one of them.) Chafin is possibly a good example of this, especially of he opts in but even if he just resigns. He values being close to his farm and that may outweigh getting the best offer.

 

[JackPine]

3 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I don't disagree with this--Chafin is a great example, as he wanted to be close to Ohio.  I seriously doubt that Correa circled Minneapolis on the map and said, "I really want to be there."  It came down to his best, and likely, only option.  If Correa's market this offseason is very different than last year's, he might take other things into consideration.  I don't think his prospects will be that much improved, if at all.  He's again in a crowded class of elite free agent shortstops, and there really aren't a lot of teams in need of one, depending on where everyone lands.

We had the same idea at the same time?! 🤯

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

to clarify, Jim Cowan always speaks for me.  He has my unconditional proxy on all of my personal affairs, including responding here.

I do believe that Correa will/would sign with the Tigers if given the most attractive contract offer.  I also believe we are one of a few teams in a position to provide that to him, and have the need.  Most of the traditional big spenders don't have a need at SS.  Now, if any of the teams with free agent SS's (i.e., Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves), prefer Correa and pivot to him, I think we would be in the mix for the displaced SS (i.e., Swanson, Turner, Boegarts).  

I also believe that no one, including Correa, would be short-sighted enough to get hung up on last season's performance.  A savvy agent and/or player would recognize that this is a team trying to win--we increased our payroll last season and made some very progressive hires at manager and in the front office.  Further, anyone with any reasonable intelligence would look at the Tigers and recognize that the team had a ton of bad luck in '22.

All bets are off, though, if a player prefers a different geography.  Given that Correa signed in Minneapolis, which has a similar climate to Detroit, it shouldn't be an issue, though it was clear he had no other viable options last offseason.

My point is that geography and/or perceptions of the market might factor in, but I don't think our W-L record last season will matter.

Last year’s win-loss might not matter per se, and after all the management moves that we made, the Tigers are definitely going in the right direction. That might be attractive to some free agents. On the other hand, the organization is still scraping the bottom at this moment, new hires notwithstanding, and I believe the general perception is that it will take a few years before the Tigers can get into the position of perennial contender. Maybe as few as two, which would be great, but I’d guess three at minimum; perhaps more like four; hopefully not five or more, because that would be a problem.

Is a top-tier player like Correa willing to wait that long? Depends on the player, right? We know of players who would go through a wall to win a ring, and nothing else will do. While those are the guys who might take the slightly less lucrative offer to win a ring right now, we’re probably not in contention for a player like that for 2023.

There are other players who may not be super-driven to win a ring and nothing else. Players who instead enjoy their career, the lifestyle, and playing the game itself, and that winning would be a nice-to-have more than a have-to-have-or-else. We don’t know who many of those guys are because they don’t usually talk like that in public, but the absence of hyper-competitive talk from them might be a clue. I have suspected for some years now that Mike Trout might be like that. Is Carlos Correa like that? Not sure, and I can’t find any quotes from him from when he was signed with the Twins. So, maybe?

Another factor, besides the single-minded focus to win, might be what a player knows of the organization, because as with any profession, people in it share stories amongst themselves. Is the clubhouse filled with good guys, good teammates, motivated players? Is it a good place to play and generally pursue your profession as a ballplayer? Before this season we might have agreed that the Tigers were not. We were a complete mess, and to attract top free agents we had to either overpay (Eduardo?) or be the last one standing (Baez?). Now, though, with the new PBO hire and especially the movements made in the last couple of days, the Tigers must look a lot more interesting to free agents, which might have been one of the objectives Harris was trying to accomplish with all the moves all at once now, followed by the press conference.

I agree the city of Detroit is not as much of a factor in itself, although it could serve as a tiebreaker criterion in a situation like, similar money, Yankees vs Tigers.

How this all adds up for Correa this winter, I’m not sure. I guess we have a shot, although I do think more teams will be in for Correa than those that have FA SS right now. I don’t think the Yankees would let Kiner-Falefa block their desire to bring Correa aboard, nor would the Phillies like Bryson Stott block him, or maybe even the Cubs with Nico Hoerner, if they really wanted him. As for those contenders you named, we would go through all the same questions for whatever FA SS Correa would displace as we would with Correa.

The final two considerations are whether the Tigers will meet whatever Correa’s long-term demands are, which I assume will be roughly what they were last winter; and whether we are willing to commit to another super long-term deal after the very public failure of long-term deals this organization has recently done.

The wild card is whether Correa would accept another Twins-like deal from the Tigers. That’s possible, but with another year having passed in his career, I gotta think pretty unlikely.

My conclusion/prediction is that the Tigers won’t make a serious long-term offer for Correa, probably because we’re not close enough to winning in the next up-to-three years to justify it, and that we will roll with Baez-to-Schoop-to-TORK!? next year. I’d love to see a premier SS come here and push Baez to 2B, though.

[chasfh]

21 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

actually, what started all of this was your assertion that Correa would not come to Detroit given their recent performance. Which I disagree with--again, if he faces similar limited opportunities as he did last offseason, and the Tigers are willing to make the commitment and investment he is looking for, I believe we are a very viable option for him.  Not dissimilar to the situations that both Pudge and Ordonez were in when they both signed.

I just posted a big ol’ epistle on this, but I still can’t imagine any market conditions that would lead Correa to accept five years from a team that he believes will be sub-.500 for at least a couple more years. Perhaps if it’s the only offer he gets. That was my response to a suggestion of a 5/200 offer to him, which got this whole sidebar started.

[chasfh]

22 minutes ago, oblong said:

Don't forget tax implications when considering "the most money". In some cases the money might be more in terms of contract but when you factor in the state and local taxes it might not be the most money for the player. 

and every player is different.  Some might go closer to home.  Some might go to the highest bidder if there's not much difference in the organization because they want to do their part to lift the rising tide for the guys coming after them.  I don't think as a whole they will always go to the highest bidder.  Many if not most will.  But not all.

 

I did a whole FG fan post on this when Bryce Harper was on the market:

https://community.fangraphs.com/the-income-tax-implications-of-bryce-harpers-choice-of-next-team/

You will certainly enjoy just how utterly off I was with my prediction in the middle of it. 😁

[Tenacious D]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I just posted a big ol’ epistle on this, but I still can’t imagine any market conditions that would lead Correa to accept five years from a team that he believes will be sub-.500 for at least a couple more years. Perhaps if it’s the only offer he gets. That was my response to a suggestion of a 5/200 offer to him, which got this whole sidebar started.

of the teams you listed, I think the Cubs are viable.  The Yankees could have tried to sign Correa last season and didn't--I think they believe either Poraza or Volpe will work there, allowing them to apply resources elsewhere.  Perhaps the Phillies--maybe less likely if they win the WS, but I would not put it past Dombrowski.

I really don't care if we sign Correa or not--I just want to upgrade SS, and realize we'll likely need to do it via free agency as we have few tradable assets (which would only create other holes).  I think his relationship with Hinch would work in our favor, but I don't see him excluding us from consideration based on last season's record.

[chasfh]

25 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

of the teams you listed, I think the Cubs are viable.  The Yankees could have tried to sign Correa last season and didn't--I think they believe either Poraza or Volpe will work there, allowing them to apply resources elsewhere.  Perhaps the Phillies--maybe less likely if they win the WS, but I would not put it past Dombrowski.

I really don't care if we sign Correa or not--I just want to upgrade SS, and realize we'll likely need to do it via free agency as we have few tradable assets (which would only create other holes).  I think his relationship with Hinch would work in our favor, but I don't see him excluding us from consideration based on last season's record.

Agree.

[Biff Mayhem]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Not dissimilar to the situations that both Pudge and Ordonez were in when they both signed.

IIRC, Pudge didn't really have many options when he signed because something didn't smell right. I might be mistaken.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said:

IIRC, Pudge didn't really have many options when he signed because something didn't smell right. I might be mistaken.

Ordonez also had major question marks around his knee. IIRC, he overruled the Sox medical staff opinions and went for microfracture on his knee on his own, before the technique had gained much acceptance. That put him on the outs with the Sox and also marked him as a health question mark for anyone else.

Edited October 26, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Biff Mayhem]

9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Ordonez also had major question marks around his knee. IIRC, he overruled the Sox medical staff opinions and went for microfracture on his knee on his own, before the technique had gained much acceptance. That put him on the outs with the Sox and also marked him as a health question mark for anyone else.

You're right, I had forgotten about that.

[Tenacious D]

the point I was making about the Pudge and Ordonez signings was that they had very limited options at the time, as I believe Correa will too (for different reasons).  I hope that isn't lost on anyone--don't make me unleash the full wrath of Jim Cowan on all of you.

[oblong]

Maggs went to Germany for his procedure.  Not sure he even got any offers.  Ivan reportedly never got an offer more than a year from anyone else.  We gave him 5.

 

[SoCalTiger]

13 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Yes, he'll stay in New York...............in Flushing as a Met. 

I don't think so but Cohen has the most $$$

[JackPine]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I did a whole FG fan post on this when Bryce Harper was on the market:

https://community.fangraphs.com/the-income-tax-implications-of-bryce-harpers-choice-of-next-team/

You will certainly enjoy just how utterly off I was with my prediction in the middle of it. 😁

I dont pay income tax to the state i travel to for work, why do players pay income tax to the localities they play in during road games? 

Taxes are complicated...

[Jim Cowan]

4 hours ago, oblong said:

Maggs went to Germany for his procedure.  Not sure he even got any offers.  Ivan reportedly never got an offer more than a year from anyone else.  We gave him 5.

 

Pudge is a great example.  If someone offered Correa the Lindor contract - no one will, but if they did - he would grab it in a heartbeat and wouldn't think twice about the organization's winning potential.

This whole thing about "wanting to play for a winner" has always bugged me, I think Reggie Jackson was the first to say it out loud.  If you are as good as you think you are, your team should be a winner by definition, shouldn't it?

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

If you are as good as you think you are, your team should be a winner by definition, shouldn't it?

I’ve never really believed this to the case for baseball.  Basketball is probably the sport where it is most possible.  Maybe hockey to an extent.  But baseball is a sport where your chances to determine individual games over the course of a season are very low compared to the plays where you have no input.  Ernie Banks comes to mind.

[chasfh]

A baseball player’s inability to single-handedly will his team to victory light after night, despite being surrounded by mediocrity, is a key reason I don’t think a team’s record should factor into his MVP vote. 

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I’ve never really believed this to the case for baseball.  Basketball is probably the sport where it is most possible.  Maybe hockey to an extent.  But baseball is a sport where your chances to determine individual games over the course of a season are very low compared to the plays where you have no input.  Ernie Banks comes to mind.

I agree, I was just throwing it back in Reggie's face. It always seems so hypocritical to demand a gargantuan contract while at the same time admitting that they need a whole bunch of good teammates.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

A baseball player’s inability to single-handedly will his team to victory light after night, despite being surrounded by mediocrity, is a key reason I don’t think a team’s record should factor into his MVP vote. 

True enough if you mean MVP to be 'best' player. But there is an equally valid though different way to take it, which would be that if team accomplishes nothing, no-one on that team was of particular value because they accomplished nothing. As long as you have people who hold both views of what 'MVP' means, that debate will continue. And of course the debate generates engagement=interest, so I don't any reason for anyone in baseball to try to resolve that ambiguity!

[Tiger337]

11 hours ago, Biff Mayhem said:

IIRC, Pudge didn't really have many options when he signed because something didn't smell right. I might be mistaken.

He had a problem with his back.  

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

He had a problem with his back.  

The other thing with Pudge is that he played on a 1/10 with the Marlins in 2003 and then demanded a 4/40 to re-sign with them, and they countered with a slight pay cut instead. With a publicly established floor of 4/40, and the Tigers the only organization to make that offer, he basically had to take our deal, I believe to more or less save face.