2023 NFL Draft Thread

[buddha]

pick up corum in round 3.

[MichiganCardinal]

I think the question is more along the lines of whether Robinson is "special" enough to ignore a general rule that you don't draft RBs in the first round. Similar to the question Kyle Pitts raised two years ago (who I think the Falcons are completely misusing, but that's besides the point).

I don't think there is any question that if Will Anderson or Jalen Carter are there, you take them. The question is more so if you have Robinson graded as a top 5 pick and the best remaining defensive player graded top 15, do you take Robinson and wait to grab one of your top remaining defensive players for the second pick?

If they they think he is going to be Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffery, you have to strongly consider it. I'm okay with the answer being no though also. I agree that RBs shouldn't usually be taken in the first round, but if that were a blanket rule you wouldn't have drafted Barry. I know it's a different era, but still.

[Jason_R]

Alvin Kamara, pick 67. Derrick Henry, pick 45. 

Barry Sanders was a ridiculous prospect. His one starting season: 2600 yards, 37 TDs, sub 4.4 40 time. Bijan Robinson barely has that in two and a half college seasons. Same with Barkley. 

[gehringer_2]

On 10/12/2022 at 9:49 AM, Motown Bombers said:

With the way NFL QBs are protected, I would be more concerned with a short QB being able to see downfield and avoid batted balls. I wonder if Murray or Mayfield have any higher amount of batted balls than other QBs? Drew Brees compensated for his short stature with a high release. 

the conventional wisdom used to be that to compensate for vision and obstacles, shorter guys had more success if they rolled out a lot, but that's tougher to do in todays game with so many edge guys that can run a QB down if comes in their direction - also means a short QB better be fast as well. Size also helps guys fight off sacks or get the ball off before they can be pulled down.

In general, there is probably good reason so many QBs look like Brady.

Edited November 26, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

Sign Lamar Jackson, draft two studs for our defense with our first rounders and address TE and RB in rounds 2-4. And then start printing playoff tix.

[buddha]

they better not draft a tight end.  they have enough already at tight end and have glaring needs at other positions.

lamar is getting franchised.

[Motown Bombers]

They drafted Mitchell who was coming off injury and working him in. I also don't think they value TEs so I doubt they draft a TE. If they do, it will be middle to late round.

[MichiganCardinal]

I think Mitchell gets a chance to be the starting TE before they draft over him.

[Cruzer1]

I have heard that the Lions have been to at least 5 Florida games to watch Richardson. He's abundantly talented.

[RandyMarsh]

I would love to get Richardson, he is definitely a risk so I don't think I could take him with our first 2 picks but if he could be had in the late 1st or 2nd I think he would be worth the gamble. I mentioned before but I would love to see how a more mobile QB could do in our offense and they don't get much more mobile than Richardson. I was watching some of the game tonight and there was one play where he seriously pushed the pile like 10 yards, it was freaking insane, never seen a QB do that before so he's deceptively strong as well. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[buddha]

30 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I would love to get Richardson, he is definitely a risk so I don't think I could take him with our first 2 picks but if he could be had in the late 1st or 2nd I think he would be worth the gamble. I mentioned before but I would love to see how a more mobile QB could do in our offense and they don't get much more mobile than Richardson. I was watching some of the game tonight and there was one play where he seriously pushed the pile like 10 yards, it was freaking insane, never seen a QB do that before so he's deceptively strong as well. 

55% completion rate is very poor for a college qb prospect.

[1984Echoes]

9 hours ago, buddha said:

i dont want a running back in the first round.  definitely not with a top 5 pick.

Ditto.

I'll take a 2nd or 3rd round RB that can be worked into the rotation...

[RandyMarsh]

16 minutes ago, buddha said:

55% completion rate is very poor for a college qb prospect.

That's why there is risk there, completion percentage definitely leaves alot to be desired but he throws a pretty ball, real tight spiral and is uber athletic. You're banking on his accuracy improving in the NFL with better players around him and better schemes to give the receivers more space. At Florida he has been undermanned compared to many of the SEC monsters so perhaps that has hurt his accuracy? I really don't know but IF you take him in the 1st or 2nd you're trusting your scouts and banking on his game translating better in the NFL.  

[buddha]

27 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

That's why there is risk there, completion percentage definitely leaves alot to be desired but he throws a pretty ball, real tight spiral and is uber athletic. You're banking on his accuracy improving in the NFL with better players around him and better schemes to give the receivers more space. At Florida he has been undermanned compared to many of the SEC monsters so perhaps that has hurt his accuracy? I really don't know but IF you take him in the 1st or 2nd you're trusting your scouts and banking on his game translating better in the NFL.  

he's very athletic, that's for sure.  a lot of the passes he throws look good, but then you see just the complete terrible ones thrown to no one.  i dont know enough about football to know of he's doing a good job finding receivers downfield or going through his progressions.

will levis, for all his flaws, also plays in the sec with undermanned receovers amd has a 67% completion rating.

[gehringer_2]

Of course look at JJ at Michigan. He was leading the world in completion % as long as they were running a short passing ball control air game. Once they tried to start stretching the field and throwing over the D, his % plummetted. Same QB, same receivers. Tougher opposition probably also , but mostly just the change in game planning. So it's a number that's going to have a little context to it.

Edited November 26, 2022 by gehringer_2

[RandyMarsh]

I'm not real privy to football analytics because most sites are behind a paywall but yeah I'm sure there are stats out there that are more telling of a QBs real accuracy than completion percentage and probably what teams put more stock in than that. 

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm not real privy to football analytics because most sites are behind a paywall but yeah I'm sure there are stats out there that are more telling of a QBs real accuracy than completion percentage and probably what teams put more stock in than that. 

I'm assuming analytics such as completion percentage by area (0-15 yards left, center, right; 15-30 yards, same, 30+ yards, same...) are available to teams. Or at least I hope they would be and the Lions look at stuff like that...

Also can probably find that out in workouts to some degree (ability to be accurate the deeper the throw goes...).

Didn't several QB prospects last year drop precipitously AFTER teams started doing workouts with all of the QB's...?

[MichiganCardinal]

Whatever Lions draft scouts are doing it seems to be working.

[Tigeraholic1]

The Lions shouls be banned from drafting a TE in the first round.

[Jason_R]

Josh Allen: 56.2% completion for his college career. 

YMMV

[MichiganCardinal]

52 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

The Lions shouls be banned from drafting a TE in the first round.

Kyle Pitts was a good selection for Atlanta. Now why they are using their 6’6” / 247lb TE who ran a 4.44 40 to pass block is beyond me.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Jason_R said:

Josh Allen: 56.2% completion for his college career. 

YMMV

that's the exception.  other than him, almost no qb has been successful with that low of a completion percentage in college.

buy the game is changing and more qbs are running now.  richardson can certainly do that.

richardson looks like a bigger malik willis.  and he fell to round 3...

[RandyMarsh]

Stafford was 52% and 55% respectively his first 2 seasons in college before jumping to 61% his junior year, this is essentially Richardson's first full year at QB so you're banking on him progressing with more experience. Again though he is a risk and is definitely raw but his upside is as high as any QB in the draft, definitely a player that you have to trust what your scouts see and project in him if you're going to take him before the 3rd round. 

[Hongbit]

Pro scouts assessment of QB accuracy goes way, way deeper than just completion percentage.  

[buddha]

i'll be the first to admit that i have no clue how to evaluate college football prospects.