2023 NFL Draft Thread

[Hongbit]

11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Well one is the Lions and I'm guessing the other is the Packers as I don't think Rodgers missed a game. 

[Motown Bombers]

The Vikings drafted Kellen Mond in the 3rd round last year. He attempted two passes last year as a backup to the backup and is already out of the league. Really important Minnesota used a 3rd round pick to draft a backup QB since Kirk Cousins has never missed a game due to injury since becoming a full time starter in 2015. 

[Motown Bombers]

Here's another narrative buster regarding Goff:

"Goff led the NFL with 1,635 passing yards when blitzed this season. His 13 touchdowns were second behind only Patrick Mahomes (16). Goff had a 106.8 passer rating when teams attempted to blitz him."

https://www.detroitlions.com/news/2022-position-breakdown-quarterbacks-goff-sudfeld

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, Cruzer1 said:

Aaron Rodgers was a backup for 4 years.

That's an extreme outlier.

And even if you want to draw that parallel to drafting Richardson, you're willing to burn a 1st on a player who might be a starter in 4 years? Hell, this regime might not even last 4 more years for all we know.

Edited January 18, 2023 by NYLion

[buddha]

if the lions think they can develop richardson (or levis...or hooker) into a top qb in 3 years they should draft one of them.  

 

[Motown Bombers]

But they have a top QB now...

[NYLion]

8 minutes ago, buddha said:

if the lions think they can develop richardson (or levis...or hooker) into a top qb in 3 years they should draft one of them.  

 

Most NFL regimes don't have 3 years to assess their backup QB. I'm all for drafting for upside down the road but not in the 1st round when they are closer to winning than originally planned. This thing is being built around Goff so lets get players that can contribute next season and beyond, not 3 years down the road. Take a swing on a QB in the 3rd like the Titans did with Willis or the Falcons with Ridder etc. if you want to take a shot at upside.

[buddha]

i'm not convinced about goff.  but i did enjoy him playing a very well for much of last season.

fwiw, i dont think they will draft a qb high this year.  i think they believe in goff as a player and a leader.

 

[Motown Bombers]

When Stafford was 28, he was worse than Goff and not many people were saying the Lions needed to draft a new QB. Well there were probably some who felt the Lions should have traded up that year to draft Goff. 

[buddha]

1 minute ago, NYLion said:

Most NFL regimes don't have 3 years to assess their backup QB. I'm all for drafting for upside down the road but not in the 1st round when they are closer to winning than originally planned. This thing is being built around Goff so lets get players that can contribute next season and beyond, not 3 years down the road. Take a swing on a QB in the 3rd like the Titans did with Willis or the Falcons with Ridder etc. if you want to take a shot at upside.

that's fair.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Most NFL regimes don't have 3 years to assess their backup QB. I'm all for drafting for upside down the road but not in the 1st round when they are closer to winning than originally planned. This thing is being built around Goff so lets get players that can contribute next season and beyond, not 3 years down the road. Take a swing on a QB in the 3rd like the Titans did with Willis or the Falcons with Ridder etc. if you want to take a shot at upside.

I don't like these mid round development QBs because they rarely pan out and you have GM that is finding starter quality talent in the mid rounds. I would take St Brown, McNeil or Jospeh over Willis or Ridder. Like Mike Ermentrout once said, no half measures. Either you think Goff is the guy and you ride with him or you draft his replacement in the 1st round.  

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

if the lions think they can develop richardson (or levis...or hooker) into a top qb in 3 years they should draft one of them.  

 

Even if they fall to the 2nd or 3rd round.

[Motown Bombers]

So you draft a QB in the 1st round and Goff continues to play well, then what? Do you let him walk? You draft a QB, especially in the 1st round, if you don't think your current QB is the future QB. 

[1984Echoes]

So the next questions are:

1) How much of the future is Goff? 10 years, when he'll be 39? For at least the next 2 years (his current contract) and then re-evaluate? Because.. if he's more than two years then it will take an extension to get him past 2 years. 

2) Is he worth an additional 5 years (total of 7 to bring him to age 36...) at $200 mill, at least $150 mill guaranteed (current approximate going rate...)?

3) If Goff goes down for 6 weeks in mid-December next year, how does the rest of the year play out? (I'm talking specifically playoff games). I get that a better backup could be signed than Sudfeld... but a draft pick is also a valid option.

 

I think it's completely asinine to rule out drafting a QB, in any round.

I have no qualms about drafting a QB, whenever that may be, in whatever round. The one and ONLY issue in my mind is can the GM properly identify the right QB that can be developed by the current coaching staff. That's it. And Holmes wins in my mind. Over ANYTHING that ANY internet warrior in here has to say.

[Longgone]

20 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

So you draft a QB in the 1st round and Goff continues to play well, then what? Do you let him walk? You draft a QB, especially in the 1st round, if you don't think your current QB is the future QB. 

You trade one of them for a gazillion draft picks.

[buddha]

26 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

So you draft a QB in the 1st round and Goff continues to play well, then what? Do you let him walk? You draft a QB, especially in the 1st round, if you don't think your current QB is the future QB. 

then you have a great problem to work out and lots of trade bait with which to solve it.

[KL2]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

The Vikings drafted Kellen Mond in the 3rd round last year. He attempted two passes last year as a backup to the backup and is already out of the league. Really important Minnesota used a 3rd round pick to draft a backup QB since Kirk Cousins has never missed a game due to injury since becoming a full time starter in 2015. 

And most third round picks bust out. Don't make it seem like 80 percent are solid starter. So it really doesn't matter if it's a qb or dl who busts. If you find your qb there though, well it's the most important position on the field.

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, buddha said:

then you have a great problem to work out and lots of trade bait with which to solve it.

Aside from Favre and Rodgers another top level team to let their winning QB walk for an understudy would have been SFO under Walsh. They let Montana go because it was time to play Steve Young or he was going to walk. Montana had a couple more good years with KC and got to the play-offs, but Young had more and won a SB for SFO, so it was the right move for them.

[Motown Bombers]

17 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

So the next questions are:

1) How much of the future is Goff? 10 years, when he'll be 39? For at least the next 2 years (his current contract) and then re-evaluate? Because.. if he's more than two years then it will take an extension to get him past 2 years. 

2) Is he worth an additional 5 years (total of 7 to bring him to age 36...) at $200 mill, at least $150 mill guaranteed (current approximate going rate...)?

3) If Goff goes down for 6 weeks in mid-December next year, how does the rest of the year play out? (I'm talking specifically playoff games). I get that a better backup could be signed than Sudfeld... but a draft pick is also a valid option.

 

I think it's completely asinine to rule out drafting a QB, in any round.

I have no qualms about drafting a QB, whenever that may be, in whatever round. The one and ONLY issue in my mind is can the GM properly identify the right QB that can be developed by the current coaching staff. That's it. And Holmes wins in my mind. Over ANYTHING that ANY internet warrior in here has to say.

Lots of people like to site the Chiefs so lets look at them. First off, Goff is simply better than Smith. Kansas City traded for Smith when he was 29. Goff is 28. After one season, they signed him to a 4 year extension. He played four seasons in Kansas City before they drafted Mahomes. He wasn't brought over to be a bridge. They drafted Mahomes when Smith was 33. I would consider signing Goff to a 5 year total contract right now reworking the final two years of his contract to create more cap space. That would take him to age 33. Around age 32 you evaluate if he is still the future QB and either sign him to another contract or draft your future QB. You can also consider 7 years with the final two years being non guaranteed. 

If Goff goes down for 6 weeks, you really think a rookie, especially a project one like Richardson, is going to just step in and keep you afloat? If your goal is to keep the team competitive for the playoffs, you sign a veteran. 

I don't think it's asinine to draft a QB 6th overall when you have a 28 year old QB is top 10. It's same old Lions to create a QB controversy and draft a backup in the 1st round. They draft a QB in the 1st round and that is an undeniable signal they don't think Goff is the guy and you create a situation like Goff had with the Rams. No team drafts QBs that high when they have a good young QB. This sudden backup QB hysteria is odd given Goff's durability and the fact that other teams like KC don't just go out and draft backups. 

My question is, how does this development work? What happens in two years if Goff is still playing well and the Lions are having playoff success? You pull the plug on Goff and hope the rookie is ready? It worked with Mahomes but man alive you better not go through life thinking you can just draft the next Mahomes. 

[MichiganCardinal]

No matter what you do, Goff won't be around forever. I'm okay with finding his replacement if/when you identify the next Mahomes, and allow that player to sit backstage for a year or maybe two. Three gets excessive. I think that tends to be a recipe for success for the best NFL quarterbacks, and it's what the best NFL franchises do.

That said, I don't think this would be a conversation if the trade had never happened and Stafford just had the season Goff had en route to a 9-8 season. Despite being six years older than Goff, we would have our QB and be very happy with who we have. Goff has a much larger perception problem than a talent problem. Short of a deep playoff run, I'm not sure he will ever shake that fully.

[Motown Bombers]

15 minutes ago, KL2 said:

And most third round picks bust out. Don't make it seem like 80 percent are solid starter. So it really doesn't matter if it's a qb or dl who busts. If you find your qb there though, well it's the most important position on the field.

So far Holmes has drafted McNeil, Joseph and Melifonwu in the 3rd round. Two of those look to be solid starters. Your more likely to find players like a starting caliber guard like Jonah Jackson than a QB better than Goff. Even if the guard is a backup, he's more likely to get playing time than a backup QB. I would be willing to bet more QBs bust in the 3rd round than other positions. 

[Motown Bombers]

Here's the thing with the Packers, they tried to get cute with it again. They traded up for Love 3 years ago. He has 83 pass attempts in 3 seasons and has an 0-1 record so he didn't even win the one game Rodgers missed. He's going into year four and Rodgers very likely will come back. Green Bay now has to decide whether to pick up a 5th year option on a QB who has started one game in three years. Wouldn't Tee Higgins look better for Green Bay? Whose going to trade for Love? Does he have trade value? I can't imagine a team would trade a 1st round pick for a QB who hasn't played in three years. 

[Longgone]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Here's the thing with the Packers, they tried to get cute with it again. They traded up for Love 3 years ago. He has 83 pass attempts in 3 seasons and has an 0-1 record so he didn't even win the one game Rodgers missed. He's going into year four and Rodgers very likely will come back. Green Bay now has to decide whether to pick up a 5th year option on a QB who has started one game in three years. Wouldn't Tee Higgins look better for Green Bay? Whose going to trade for Love? Does he have trade value? I can't imagine a team would trade a 1st round pick for a QB who hasn't played in three years. 

They would if he was any good. Just because a player busts, and they do at every position, is no reason not to do something. Good teams have competition, and quality back-ups at every position.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Longgone said:

They would if he was any good. Just because a player busts, and they do at every position, is no reason not to do something. Good teams have competition, and quality back-ups at every position.

The problem is, you don't know if Love is any good because he hasn't played. He would only play unless Rodgers is injured for an extended period of time or you bench Rodgers. If Rodgers had injury issues or was benched for being ineffective, then Rodgers wouldn't have trade value. 

The Packers have been Super Bowl contenders two of the three seasons Love has been in the league. The Packers have come up short in the playoffs while their 1st round pick has been on the bench. 

[Motown Bombers]

If Holmes really likes a LT in the first round, he should draft him. Let him sit on the bench. The Lions have no backup for Decker so it really is a need.