2023 NFL Draft Thread

[Hongbit]

This quote from Jeremiah is something else.  Ceiling is a euphemism for Dream Scenario.  It’s maybe a 1 in 20 shot they hit the ceiling, yet these pundits treat it like it’s a coin flip.   

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

This quote from Jeremiah is something else.  Ceiling is a euphemism for Dream Scenario.  It’s maybe a 1 in 20 shot they hit the ceiling, yet these pundits treat it like it’s a coin flip.   

Richardson has a higher ceiling than Goff but Goff has a higher floor. The floor for Richardson is the cliff that Thelma and Louise drove off of but instead it will be Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell in the car. 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[djhutch]

If this Lions regime picks Richardson in the first round, I'll eat my hat.

[MichiganCardinal]

I’m not going to be upset if the Lions pick Richardson, but I would be surprised. I put it at 1-5% chance of happening.

[RandyMarsh]

Yeah I'd put the odds at slim to none. If they put together another strong draft this year along with taking steps on the field like making the playoffs I could potentially see them taking a chance on a guy like that next draft but this draft I just don't see it.

I think they realize that the division is their's for the taking and the conference is down so they are going to be focused on guys that can make an immediate difference right away. 

[Tenacious D]

The correct answer is, “I trust in Holmes.”  He’s earned that. Our opinions are meaningless.

[Motown Bombers]

I trust Holmes to not do something ridiculous like draft Richardson. 

[MichiganCardinal]

Holmes has earned the right to draft someone like Richardson without me losing my mind. Particularly if he goes into free agency and picks up Bobby Wagner and Jamel Dean (for instance). At that point, between your other four picks in the first three rounds, you have your starting 22 (and possibly then some).

It’s a needle many have tried to thread and few have done successfully. Between not throwing Goff off of his game in the immediacy, developing Richardson to be better than Goff, and then transitioning Richardson into the starting role, things can go wrong in a lot of different ways. Ask Jordan Love, Trey Lance, and any number of 2nd round QBs taken through the years. On the other hand, you could get Pat Mahomes or Jalen Hurts if it goes well.

 

[buddha]

i hope they draft richardson just to see everyone suddenly pull a 180 and claim they see the reasoning for it and say how it was a great move.

 

[Motown Bombers]

If they draft him to replace Jamaal Williams I could see the reasoning. 

[Jason_R]

Goff is 28. Was a top 5 QB last year. He could be the team’s starter for the next ten years. The Richardson talk is insane. They might as well light the draft pick on fire. 

[Motown Bombers]

3 hours ago, Jason_R said:

Goff is 28. Was a top 5 QB last year. He could be the team’s starter for the next ten years. The Richardson talk is insane. They might as well light the draft pick on fire. 

The Lions desperately need a backup QB. Someone has to replace the 5 snaps and 0 pass attempts that Sudfeld had.

I'm also going to kill all the Goff narratives that are sure to come.

Goff is really good against the blitz. In 2021 his completion % was 4th best in the league against the blitz and his passer rating was 10th best against the blitz. In 2022 he was even better:

"In 2022, Goff was blitzed at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, 33.5 percent. That’s way up from last year’s 22.4 percent. How did he fare? Turns out, pretty well.

Only three quarterbacks — Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Jimmy Garoppolo — were more efficient than Goff against the blitz in 2022. He ranked fourth in EPA per dropback when facing five or more rushers."

https://theathletic.com/4173548/2023/02/13/detroit-lions-jared-goff-improvement/?access_token=11710428&redirected=1

Goff can't throw it deep but he was one of the better QBs in completion percentage on passes of 15 air yards or more, even better than Mahomes and he only attempted 3 fewer than Mahomes. 

Goff can't be successful without an elite running game. The Lions running game was good, but when Swift was injured and they relied more on the passing game he got better. The Lions ranked 11th in rushing yards and 8th in passing yards. They ranked 8th in passing TDs but 3rd in rushing TDs. Goff could easily have had more TDs if they didn't hand it off to Williams at the goal line as much as they did. 

Goff can't be successful without McVay. Goff was a deserving Pro Bowler without McVay and had the 2nd highest QBR of his career, 2nd most TD passes, and 3rd highest passer rating of his career. 

Goff can't play well in the cold. The Lions went into Green Bay in January in a playoff game and won. A place they were 3-27 at the past 30 years. Goff out played Aaron Rodgers in the 4th quarter and made the throws he needed to win. He even one of the best deep passes of any Lions QB I have seen. 

Bottom line, it's OK to admit Goff is a good QB. The Lions don't need a QB. 

I'll also add a bonus take. One of the other narratives on Goff in LA was that he turned the ball over too much. Since coming to Detroit, his INT rate dropped from 2.3% to 1.4%. It wasn't just 2022 where he was good at protecting the ball. His INT rate was 1.6% in 2021. Along with his 1.2% INT rate in 2022, those were the two lowest of his career. Stafford, meanwhile, has a 2.8% INT rate with the Rams vs his 2.3% INT rate with the Lions. His 2.8% INT rate with the Rams in 2021 was the 3rd worst in his career only being best by his rookie season and his 2013 season. His INT rate in 2020 in Detroit was 1.9% and jumped to 2.8% his first year in Los Angeles. Considering Goff's INT rate declined significantly upon leaving the Rams and Stafford's increased significantly upon joining the Rams, maybe it's McVay's offense that leads to turnovers. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The Lions desperately need a backup QB. Someone has to replace the 5 snaps and 0 pass attempts that Sudfeld had.

I'm also going to kill all the Goff narratives that are sure to come.

Goff is really good against the blitz. In 2021 his completion % was 4th best in the league against the blitz and his passer rating was 10th best against the blitz. In 2022 he was even better:

"In 2022, Goff was blitzed at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, 33.5 percent. That’s way up from last year’s 22.4 percent. How did he fare? Turns out, pretty well.

Only three quarterbacks — Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Jimmy Garoppolo — were more efficient than Goff against the blitz in 2022. He ranked fourth in EPA per dropback when facing five or more rushers."

https://theathletic.com/4173548/2023/02/13/detroit-lions-jared-goff-improvement/?access_token=11710428&redirected=1

Goff can't throw it deep but he was one of the better QBs in completion percentage on passes of 15 air yards or more, even better than Mahomes and he only attempted 3 fewer than Mahomes. 

Goff can't be successful without an elite running game. The Lions running game was good, but when Swift was injured and they relied more on the passing game he got better. The Lions ranked 11th in rushing yards and 8th in passing yards. They ranked 8th in passing TDs but 3rd in rushing TDs. Goff could easily have had more TDs if they didn't hand it off to Williams at the goal line as much as they did. 

Goff can't be successful without McVay. Goff was a deserving Pro Bowler without McVay and had the 2nd highest QBR of his career, 2nd most TD passes, and 3rd highest passer rating of his career. 

Goff can't play well in the cold. The Lions went into Green Bay in January in a playoff game and won. A place they were 3-27 at the past 30 years. Goff out played Aaron Rodgers in the 4th quarter and made the throws he needed to win. He even one of the best deep passes of any Lions QB I have seen. 

Bottom line, it's OK to admit Goff is a good QB. The Lions don't need a QB. 

 It's probably also OK to admit this is a good OL. And it's going to be true that Goff is a better QB behind this OL than he might be behind an inferior one (what QB isn't?), and that is probably part of what things like good blitz numbers and deep throw stats are also telling us. But so what? The fact is he *does* play behind this line and not a different one. A GM's job is to assembly a team, not just a bunch of players. So I don't care if he can't scramble for his life behind Backus, Cherilus and Raiola as well as Mahomes could. He doesn't have to.

Edited February 25, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

 It's probably also OK to admit this is a good OL. And it's going to be true that Goff is a better QB behind this OL than he might be behind an inferior one (what QB isn't?), and that is probably part of what things like good blitz numbers and deep throw stats are also telling us. But so what? The fact is he *does* play behind this line and not a different one. A GM's job is to assembly a team, not just a bunch of players.

This brings up another of my favorite narratives. Goff is only successful when he has a good supporting cast so the Lions should look to draft Anthony Richardson. Well, Richardson has an abysmal completion percentage. Well that's because he doesn't have a good supporting cast. 

[buddha]

so the best deep ball passers in the nfl are tua, tyler heincke, geno smith, matt ryan(!), and sam darnold.

come on now....

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

so the best deep ball passers in the nfl are tua, tyler heincke, geno smith, matt ryan(!), and sam darnold.

come on now....

Yeah Tua was one of the best deep throwers in the league. It's weird how when you give a QB a deep threat like Tyreek Hill he can suddenly become a good deep passer. Not sure how Goff struggled deep when his deep threats were Khaderel Hodge or Tom Kennedy or Kalif Raymond. 

[Hongbit]

In Grandpa’s day 15+ yards was a deep ball.   That’s not a realistic number anymore.  

30 yards is more representative of a deep ball but that sort of misses what we are talked about with Goff.  

His concerns are the shot plays with high arch passes of 40+ air yards and that’s where the criticism comes on his accuracy.   He was actually much better last season but I’d be interested to see his career completion percentage on balls over 40+ in the air and how he stacks up to the league.  If those numbers are above average then I’d agree maybe his deep ball concerns are unwarranted.  

Edited February 25, 2023 by Hongbit

[buddha]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Yeah Tua was one of the best deep throwers in the league. It's weird how when you give a QB a deep threat like Tyreek Hill he can suddenly become a good deep passer. Not sure how Goff struggled deep when his deep threats were Khaderel Hodge or Tom Kennedy or Kalif Raymond. 

tyler heincke?  matt ryan?  sam darnold?

this is what happens when you quote some statistic as meaningful without any context.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

tyler heincke?  matt ryan?  sam darnold?

this is what happens when you quote some statistic as meaningful without any context.

Matt Ryan attempted fewer deep passes than anyone on that chart but in his prime he was a good deep passer. Sam Darnold has a good arm. There's a reason he was a top draft pick but yeah they were one of the best deep passer in the league last year. Are you saying the numbers are wrong? 

[buddha]

4 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

In Grandpa’s day 15+ yards was a deep ball.   That’s not a realistic number anymore.  30 yards is more representative of a deep but that sort of misses too.  The Goff concerns are the shot plays of 40+ air yards and that’s where the criticism comes on his accuracy.   He was actually much better last season but I’d be interested to see his career completion percentage on balls over 40+ in the air and how he stacks up to the league.  If those numbers are above average then I’d agree maybe his deep ball concerns are unwarranted.  

here ya go.

he was 32nd.  ahead of only huntley and darnold.  and well behind such great nfl passers as justin fields.

[buddha]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Matt Ryan attempted fewer deep passes than anyone on that chart but in his prime he was a good deep passer. Sam Darnold has a good arm. There's a reason he was a top draft pick but yeah they were one of the best deep passer in the league last year. Are you saying the numbers are wrong? 

im saying those numbers do not show that those passers were good at deep balls.

jarad goff had a good season last year.  ben johnson had an AMAZING season last year and that's why jarad goff's stats look better this year.

goff deserves a lot of credit and was a good qb last year, let's not go crazy and say that he was one of the best at something (deep passes) that our eyes can tell us he wasnt.

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, buddha said:

here ya go.

he was 32nd.  ahead of only huntley and darnold.  and well behind such great nfl passers as justin fields.

Those are the 2021 15+ air yard stats. Not at all what he asked for. 

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, buddha said:

im saying those numbers do not show that those passers were good at deep balls.

jarad goff had a good season last year.  ben johnson had an AMAZING season last year and that's why jarad goff's stats look better this year.

goff deserves a lot of credit and was a good qb last year, let's not go crazy and say that he was one of the best at something (deep passes) that our eyes can tell us he wasnt.

Jared Goff is only successful because of McVay, wait no, Jared Goff is only successful because of Ben Johnson. 

[Motown Bombers]

How lucky is Goff to end up with the only two people in the NFL that can make him a successful QB?

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

In Grandpa’s day 15+ yards was a deep ball.   That’s not a realistic number anymore.  

30 yards is more representative of a deep ball but that sort of misses what we are talked about with Goff.  

His concerns are the shot plays with high arch passes of 40+ air yards and that’s where the criticism comes on his accuracy.   He was actually much better last season but I’d be interested to see his career completion percentage on balls over 40+ in the air and how he stacks up to the league.  If those numbers are above average then I’d agree maybe his deep ball concerns are unwarranted.  

and yards in the air *down* the field doesn't capture it all either. Some of the throws that require the most arm strength and accuracy are across the field, where you you don't have the luxury of being able to put a lot of air under it.