2023 NFL Draft Thread

[NYLion]

16 hours ago, buddha said:

i think he was really good against washington and seattle in the first half and bad against dallas, new england, and not that good against green bay and minnesota.  he played really well in the second half against everyone but the jets, but they have a great defense.  lots of qbs didnt play well against the jets.

i just dont think jared goff is the kind of guy who is going to single handedly win you a game.  he was a solid qb last year, especially against weak defenses.

that's not damning with faint praise, its good to have a decent qb who can run your offense and make the right decisions.  but i dont see goff as an elite qb. he's kirk cousins.  he's solid.

the question is whether you want that much of your cap tied up in him?  

He was good against Philly too who had one of the best defenses in the league. He was down to mostly practice squad receivers against New England and Dallas. He was poor in those games but it comes with an asterisk when the team is decimated by injury at the skill positions.

I just took issue with saying that Goff was just good for the easy 1/2 of one season. Even if you want to say that he just played well the second half of last season, he was darn near flawless in games that had meaning.

I don't take issue with your concern about his next contract, I think all of us (even @Motown Bombers) has some concern about that but the question is, how many QBs are truly better than Goff in this league, QBs that you know for sure are a clear upgrade? I've got Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Hurts and Herbert, Lawrence soon most likely. That's it.

So point being that are you willing to burn a 1st rounder on the 4th or 5th best QB in this draft in the oft chance that he supplants a top 10 NFL QB? The thing is, when you draft this guy he's the franchise guy, Goff is most likely done after 1 season unless he takes the Lions to a Super Bowl or close enough so he better be worth it when Goff is moved out or else you're stuck with Jordan Love, a depreciated asset that you're forcing into the #1 role because you kind of have to due to the capital exhausted to bring him in. We also know that Goff fits THIS offense and culture, will the next guy?

With that said, going $40m+ on the next Goff contract presents risks of its own and, yes, he's a guy with a limited ceiling so there's risks both ways. I don't envy Holmes's position here, it's a tough franchise altering decision when you don't have a true franchise QB but do have a guy who is good enough to win with. I get both sides of the argument and have waivered myself over the last calendar year but am leaning towards take an impact prospect that can help now in a win now window and MAYBE take a shot at Hooker if he's there in the 2nd. No QB in the 1st, not this year.

Edited April 11, 2023 by NYLion

[RandyMarsh]

I think Id break my TV if that happened.... then after the original anger went away I would try to talk myself into finding a way to rationalize it like I usually do when I think we made what appears to be a stupid move. 

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/36135170/2023-nfl-mock-draft-mel-kiper-first-second-round-predictions-63-picks-fourth-version yea baby!!!! Definition of a perfect draft. 

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities. I'm assuming that Kiper has a QB trade up to 3.

That's what we should be rooting for, a team below the Lions to trade up to 3 to take a QB which will result in Indy taking the 4th QB and Anderson or Carter being there at 6 for the Lions to take one of them or use it as a valuable trade down chip. 

[buddha]

7 minutes ago, NYLion said:

He was good against Philly too who had one of the best defenses in the league. He was down to mostly practice squad receivers against New England and Dallas. He was poor in those games but it comes with an asterisk when the team is decimated by injury at the skill positions.

I just took issue with saying that Goff was just good for the easy 1/2 of one season. Even if you want to say that he just played well the second half of last season, he was darn near flawless in games that had meaning.

I don't take issue with your concern about his next contract, I think all of us (even @Motown Bombers) has some concern about that but the question is, how many QBs are truly better than Goff in this league, QBs that you know for sure are a clear upgrade? I've got Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Hurts and Herbert, Lawrence soon most likely. That's it.

So point being that are you willing to burn a 1st rounder on the 4th or 5th best QB in this draft in the oft chance that he supplants a top 10 NFL QB? The thing is, when you draft this guy he's the franchise guy, Goff is most likely done after 1 season unless he takes the Lions to a Super Bowl or close enough so he better be worth it when Goff is moved out or else you're stuck with Jordan Love, a depreciated asset that you're forcing into the #1 role because you kind of have to due to the capital exhausted to bring him in. We also know that Goff fits THIS offense and culture, will the next guy?

With that said, going $40m+ on the next Goff contract presents risks of its own and, yes, he's a guy with a limited ceiling so there's risks both ways. I don't envy Holmes's position here, it's a tough franchise altering decision when you don't have a true franchise QB but do have a guy who is good enough to win with.

all solid points, but i take issue with the "4th or 5th best qb in the draft."  if they think any of richardson/young/stroud have great ability and theyre there at 6, then they have to consider taking them.

qb 1, 2, or 3 on the lions board could be different than on others board.  if youre talking qb 5 (somebody like tanner mckee in round 3), that's probably not a pick i would make.  

[buddha]

if carter is there at 6 and the lions pass on him, you have to think there are some things in his character that bother them.  

and then the eagles will take him at 10 if he makes it past the bears at 9.

[1984Echoes]

17 minutes ago, NYLion said:

.... We also know that Goff fits THIS offense and culture, will the next guy?

With that said, going $40m+ on the next Goff contract presents risks of its own and, yes, he's a guy with a limited ceiling so there's risks both ways. I don't envy Holmes's position here, it's a tough franchise altering decision when you don't have a true franchise QB but do have a guy who is good enough to win with. I get both sides of the argument and have waivered myself over the last calendar year but am leaning towards take an impact prospect that can help now in a win now window and MAYBE take a shot at Hooker if he's there in the 2nd. No QB in the 1st, not this year.

I know I sound like a broken record...

But this is exactly where I'm at. Maybe a little higher than "maybe"...

Hendon Hooker for $500 please.

[buddha]

another thing to think about, ben johnson is likely gone next year if the lions are good this season.  aaron glenn too.  does that affect how they think about goff or what kind of players they draft on defense this year?

[RatkoVarda]

20 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I know I sound like a broken record...

But this is exactly where I'm at. Maybe a little higher than "maybe"...

Hendon Hooker for $500 please.

do you really want to use 18 on Hooker?

[Motown Bombers]

I'm not sure if Hooker will even be there at 18. I would rather use a 1st round pick on Hooker. If one of the biggest reasons is that coveted rookie contract, you will want that 5th year option especially since Hooker likely won't even play year one. Hooker seems like a good fit for Tennessee at 11. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

36 minutes ago, buddha said:

all solid points, but i take issue with the "4th or 5th best qb in the draft."  if they think any of richardson/young/stroud have great ability and theyre there at 6, then they have to consider taking them.

qb 1, 2, or 3 on the lions board could be different than on others board.  if youre talking qb 5 (somebody like tanner mckee in round 3), that's probably not a pick i would make.  

What if the Lions have Will Levis #1 on their board, are you still feeling comfortable with them considering him?

[1984Echoes]

12 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

do you really want to use 18 on Hooker?

Maybe.

I'm thinking 2nd rounder or trade up in the 2nd round... That's what I would most prefer. However:

Backup QB is critically important if a team is thinking playoffs/ Super Bowl. A lesser team not so much. But even if the starter never misses a start... the risk to a successful playoff-type season is too great to have a nothing QB as a backup. 

So I think: (A) Hooker would be the perfect backup for the next 4 years (5 years if using the #18). (B) I'd rather use the #18 elsewhere, be that Bijan or whatever else Holmes wants to grab... also, (C) if the team decides that it will move on from Goff, for whatever reason... I think Hooker is just as capable and as good as Goff so I think he would extend our window at least a couple more years... and therefore... IF (D) Holmes decides to use the #18 on Hooker and instead use the 2nds on other RB's/ CB's/ DT's/ etc... that he didn't get the position covered with the #6 or #18...

I'll live with it. He's the decision maker, and...

I Trust in Holmes.

 

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[NYLion]

43 minutes ago, buddha said:

all solid points, but i take issue with the "4th or 5th best qb in the draft."  if they think any of richardson/young/stroud have great ability and theyre there at 6, then they have to consider taking them.

qb 1, 2, or 3 on the lions board could be different than on others board.  if youre talking qb 5 (somebody like tanner mckee in round 3), that's probably not a pick i would make.  

That's the thing, if they had their choice of these guys then I'd be a bit more on board with it but with them being at 6th and getting stuck with the leftovers, I'm much less amenable to it. If Holmes has Richardson as his top rated QB and truly believes in him then we'll just have to trust his judgement but man what a risk it would be. Then again, the potential reward could be great.

I've always said, if you're going to roll the dice on a position it should be on the most important position in sports so I wouldn't be 100% against it but I'm just not a big fan of the QB options in this particular draft.

[1984Echoes]

The (3) most critical Lions needs as I see them (not in any order):

3-tech DT. We don't have one. A good inside pass rush "hugely" opens up the ability to pressure the QB. There's only a few I see in this draft and they'll be long gone before the 3rd round so...

A good backup QB - Sudfeld is what, an unknown? For a playoff-expectant team, a must have. It could be Bridgewater if we can entice him... otherwise, in this draft...?

A solid RB corps. This is a direct knock against Swift's health. There's no guarantee he'll be healthy for the playoffs (the critical reason for needing a rock solid RB corps) so, minus Swift: Montgomery (decent to plus). Craig Reynolds (a bench guy to be used on 3rd downs occasionally, or more... but I don't want to pin my playoff hopes on him...): Which means to me a top-3 rounder (does NOT have to be Bijan, but it could be...) RB needs to be selected. Charbonnet in the 3rd is thre guy I'm eyeing. Let's see what Holmes comes up with.

 

LB'er is a lower need only because that's how this management team values them: as a lower position of need... And based on all the other moves Holmes has made... I think CB, IOL, LB'er, Safety, TE, etc., are all lower need/ backup-type draft positions this year, IMHO.

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

I know I sound like a broken record...

But this is exactly where I'm at. Maybe a little higher than "maybe"...

Hendon Hooker for $500 please.

He's old, injured, and yet amazingly unrefined and erratic. He was in a system that didn't at all prepare him for the NFL. He has kind of a long and loopy release. Not sure why you're so hot for him. 

[buddha]

49 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

What if the Lions have Will Levis #1 on their board, are you still feeling comfortable with them considering him?

i trust holmes, so yes.

[RedRamage]

1 hour ago, NYLion said:

So point being that are you willing to burn a 1st rounder on the 4th or 5th best QB in this draft in the oft chance that he supplants a top 10 NFL QB?

I don't want to speak for everyone else, but for me personally... I don't see a QB worthy of the pick here. But again I'm not Brad Holmes.  Maybe he see something... maybe he's like: "There's this one weird trick that GM's don't want you to know about" that he and Campbell can do with QB-X that will probably turn him into the next super star QB.

If that exists... then go for it! Now is the time with a mostly complete team with a second 1st round pick, with a mostly down NFC-north. If you don't see it in a QB, then don't do it.  Maybe instead of swing for the fences with Carter and say: "We think we can motivate him properly and get him on the straight and narrow."  If so, then do it.

But if Holmes and company see a guy who they think they can turn into the next Tom Brady because they think they see the one little thing that's holding him back that other teams are missing... then you go for it even with Goff in the fold.  You don't pass on a 10-20 year super star because you have a very good player in that position right now.

[buddha]

33 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

The (3) most critical Lions needs as I see them (not in any order):

3-tech DT. We don't have one. A good inside pass rush "hugely" opens up the ability to pressure the QB. There's only a few I see in this draft and they'll be long gone before the 3rd round so...

A good backup QB - Sudfeld is what, an unknown? For a playoff-expectant team, a must have. It could be Bridgewater if we can entice him... otherwise, in this draft...?

A solid RB corps. This is a direct knock against Swift's health. There's no guarantee he'll be healthy for the playoffs (the critical reason for needing a rock solid RB corps) so, minus Swift: Montgomery (decent to plus). Craig Reynolds (a bench guy to be used on 3rd downs occasionally, or more... but I don't want to pin my playoff hopes on him...): Which means to me a top-3 rounder (does NOT have to be Bijan, but it could be...) RB needs to be selected. Charbonnet in the 3rd is thre guy I'm eyeing. Let's see what Holmes comes up with.

 

LB'er is a lower need only because that's how this management team values them: as a lower position of need... And based on all the other moves Holmes has made... I think CB, IOL, LB'er, Safety, TE, etc., are all lower need/ backup-type draft positions this year, IMHO.

they have no guards signed past this year.  IOL is a big need.  same thing with cornerbacks.  with okudah washing out they have little in reserve past this year.  dt is also a need but less of a long term need because they have guys who can play multiple spots on the dline.  but like you said, it is one spot where they have an immediate need for an impact player.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

If we somehow, someway got Will Anderson at #6 I don't think I would care what Brad Holmes did for the rest of the draft. He could go Michael Mayer, Darnell Washington, Sam LaPorta, and any Tight End he wanted at #18 if he got Will Anderson without having to give up draft capital to do it.

[buddha]

speaking of oline, dan brugler has his top 100 out and his draft guide available on the athletic.  its quite thorough and a good read.

he has young 1, anderson 2, and carter 3.  richardson is 13.  skowronski is 7 but he has him as a guard, not a tackle.

[Jason_R]

11 minutes ago, buddha said:

speaking of oline, dan brugler has his top 100 out and his draft guide available on the athletic.  its quite thorough and a good read.

he has young 1, anderson 2, and carter 3.  richardson is 13.  skowronski is 7 but he has him as a guard, not a tackle.

Yes, if they can’t get comfortable with Carter or trade back, Skoronski at 6 would not be as big of a stretch as people think. He is likely to be a perennial pro bowl guard. 

Also, the biggest risk I see next season is that Ragnow and Vaitai miss significant time and their injuries overlap. Suddenly you have a makeshift OL (as with a few games last season) which leaves Goff more at risk. 

I still hope they can get comfortable with Carter. He is a wrecking ball. 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Skoronski at 6 would not be as big of a stretch as people think. He is likely to be a perennial pro bowl guard. 

 Agree about the O-Line being potentially critically thin so I would have no problem going OT at 6, but for all we know there may be a guy they like more than Skoronskl

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, Longgone said:

He's old, injured, and yet amazingly unrefined and erratic. He was in a system that didn't at all prepare him for the NFL. He has kind of a long and loopy release. Not sure why you're so hot for him. 

25 years old is too old to be a backup? I didn't know that.

Injured? Forever?

I'll let Holmes & Co. evaluate those issues as well as any others you've mentioned... thank you very much.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

they have no guards signed past this year....

Which means they have it covered in 2023. 

Again, I can use a 2nd rounder on Avila or Mauch and be happy about it. They don't have to start this year (unless injuries or performance dictates...); so at the very least we are preparing a potential starter for 2024, who can also be a backup this year.

Same with CB.

Same with WR.

So IMO: you're looking at 2024 and trying to supercede our immediate needs (2023) with future needs.

I'll stand by my rankings... for this year: We MUST have coverage for RB & QB (IMO) as a potential playoff team; and a 3-tech DT will have the biggest impact on our roster as currently constructed. 

We can still draft good CB's and IOL's and WR's etc. in rounds outside the first round... just guessing. It's not like I said we CAN'T draft them... 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

 Agree about the O-Line being potentially critically thin so I would have no problem going OT at 6, but for all we know there may be a guy they like more than Skoronskl

I like several of the 2nd round type IOL's this year. I like a lot of them actually...

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

 Agree about the O-Line being potentially critically thin so I would have no problem going OT at 6, but for all we know there may be a guy they like more than Skoronskl

PS:

Guys I'd rather select at #6 than Skoronski: Anderson & Carter, obviously; either CB Gonzalez or Witherspoon, either DE Wilson or Murphy (both have been scouted/ rated as able to swing inside to 3-tech for passing downs or, in scouting terms: "can play all over the DL"); Bijan; one of the QB's only if Holmes deems it so.

I'd be as disappointed in Skoronski at #6 as I would be with a 1st round TE.

Terribly, badly, not-having-a-very-nice-day, want-to-scream-at-a-wall-at-the-top-of-my-lungs-for-two-hours-straight disappointed...

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by 1984Echoes