2023 NFL Draft Thread

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

So does McVay have a lot to do with Goff's success now? What about Stafford having the lowest QB rating since 2014? 

It'a also not like Stafford never had a decent offensive cast around him in any of his good Det years either. In 2011 he had a HOF receiver, TE with more than 80 catches, they could run it a little (1500 yds as team) and maybe most notable for the Lions, that year the O-line more or less held together - between the 5 starters there was only one one missed start all season

I think anyone would stipulate that Stafford has more arm talent than Goff, in fact more than most QBs playing, but there is more to playing QB that just that, though granted it's the most important for "wow" factor.

Edited December 15, 2022 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

27 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

My point is a GM would be delusional if he thinks a QB prospect is Mahomes since one hasn't come around since and one never existed before. The same GM who drafted Mahomes also drafted Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen. It was part good evaluation and part luck.

It also speaks to how having a good QB in this league is really a luxury as well. As mediocre as we all thing Goff is or that it's all about coaching, there are a lot of other franchises who would take him in a heartbeat over what they currently have - and it's often not easy to find someone even that good from the pile.

I hear the same variation of this frequently where I live about Dak Prescott - granted he's been better than Goff, but like with Goff, it's fair to question whether he can be the guy to take it all the way, but he's the guy that they have right now. And there is no guarantee that the next man up will be any better.

Edited December 15, 2022 by mtutiger

[4hzglory]

7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I've never said the Lions should or shouldn't draft a QB. I'm saying there are reasons to believe Goff can be the future QB. You can say the same thing with about 90% of the QBs in the league. I also wouldn't draft a QB because of the rookie contract. if they are good they need to get paid eventually. 

And we (or at least I) am not saying Goff can't be the future QB.  I am just saying if Holmes sees a guy that he believes gives the best chance to win in 2024, he should draft him.

And yes, the rookie deal is a significant factor as while you will eventually have to pay them, for 4-5 years (3-4 if they sit in 2023) you have them at a much lower salary and can use that money to fill out the team.  That $20-40 million/yr difference can easily be the difference between a super bowl contender and a playoff contender for each of those 3-4 years. 

If Goff continues to perform and is the QB of the future, he will likely be getting $30-40 million/year in 2024.  He may be worth it.  But if Holmes believes one of the current crop of QB's can be as good or better with the solid OL and weapons, I definitely would trust him to take them.

[mtutiger]

13 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

How?      Maybe if I said Goff was trash at the Rams but I never said that.  He was good in LA but he benefited greatly from SMV’s new offense which played a big part in his robust stats.   

I think your comments have been fair on this, but often in past discussions about Goff (particularly when he was first acquired) there has always been an implication that whatever success Goff has had had little to do with Goff and more to do with just about everything and everyone else around him. 

That's sort of unfair and, tbh, is probably a byproduct of the decline in relationship he had at the end with McVay and the resulting "he said, she said" that came with the trade. And at least from my view, McVay's side of the story in that relationship has generally been the default and has been the one internalized in the conventional wisdom.

Edited December 15, 2022 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

I guess if you are saying he benefited greatly with the Rams because of McVay, than what explains Goff playing at the same level he was in 17-18? McVay is out of the equation now. 

[Tenacious D]

for a group of avid football fans (you're posting in a Lions message board, for chrissakes), you don't have a lot of confidence in your ability to assess talent. If you did, you would see that Bryce Young is the only guy you would draft from this class with the Rams pick.  And he probably won't be there.  None of the others are worthy at that pick.  Perhaps with the Lions own pick, if Levis or Richardson drop.  

In this draft, it's Bryce or bust.  Otherwise, take the best defense players available, live with Goff for another year, or find a different way to get an established, proven QB. 

[Motown Bombers]

9 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

And we (or at least I) am not saying Goff can't be the future QB.  I am just saying if Holmes sees a guy that he believes gives the best chance to win in 2024, he should draft him.

And yes, the rookie deal is a significant factor as while you will eventually have to pay them, for 4-5 years (3-4 if they sit in 2023) you have them at a much lower salary and can use that money to fill out the team.  That $20-40 million/yr difference can easily be the difference between a super bowl contender and a playoff contender for each of those 3-4 years. 

If Goff continues to perform and is the QB of the future, he will likely be getting $30-40 million/year in 2024.  He may be worth it.  But if Holmes believes one of the current crop of QB's can be as good or better with the solid OL and weapons, I definitely would trust him to take them.

You can say this about any position on the field. You can say it about RT. It's really about whether a QB is a significant improvement over Goff. I don't think there is a significant improvement in this draft. There are significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. 

[NYLion]

23 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

How?      Maybe if I said Goff was trash at the Rams but I never said that.  He was good in LA but he benefited greatly from SMV’s new offense which played a big part in his robust stats.   

He's playing the best football of his career right now away from McVay. In fact, he started playing good football right around the time Lynn was fired and they starting allowing him to throw a pass past 5 yards so it's a larger sample size more than just this season.

Sure, there's no doubt that McVay played a big part in his early career success (or Fisher was just that horrible) but that has little to do with his success now. He actually had to be "rebuilt" after the McVay teardown.

Edited December 15, 2022 by NYLion

[Motown Bombers]

10 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think your comments have been fair on this, but often in past discussions about Goff (particularly when he was first acquired) there has always been an implication that whatever success Goff has had had little to do with Goff and more to do with just about everything and everyone else around him. 

That's sort of unfair and, tbh, is probably a byproduct of the decline in relationship he had at the end with McVay and the resulting "he said, she said" that came with the trade. And at least from my view, McVay's side of the story in that relationship has generally been the default and has been the one internalized in the conventional wisdom.

I also find it interesting all the blame goes on Goff and McVay is heralded as a great coach. One day you're going to the Super Bowl with Goff and giving him a massive contract and two years later you are recruiting a new QB in Cabo and paying Goff to go away.  

[Hongbit]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think your comments have been fair on this, but often in past discussions about Goff (particularly when he was first acquired) there has always been an implication that whatever success Goff has had had little to do with Goff and more to do with just about everything and everyone else around him. 

That's sort of unfair and, tbh, is probably a byproduct of the decline in relationship he had at the end with McVay and the resulting "he said, she said" that came with the trade. And at least from my view, McVay's side of the story in that relationship has generally been the default and has been the one internalized in the conventional wisdom.

He did benefit greatly from being with McVey and Co. especially when his system was new to the league but that doesn’t mean it’s all on that.   Multiple reasons can be true at the same time.  

Goff has talent and is a quality QB.  The problem effecting his perception is that he was taken 1-1.  He hasn’t lived up to that hype so people want to label him a bust.  That’s not fair and it’s not accurate.   He’s steadily between 10-15th best in the league and is playing at a higher level than that this year.  I think he takes shots from detractors that he definitely wouldn’t if he been drafted later.   The Rams winning the SB after he left doesn’t help but there were many other factors involved in that other than just QB. 

[mtutiger]

14 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

He did benefit greatly from being with McVey and Co. especially when his system was new to the league but that doesn’t mean it’s all on that.   Multiple reasons can be true at the same time.  

Goff has talent and is a quality QB.  The problem effecting his perception is that he was taken 1-1.  He hasn’t lived up to that hype so people want to label him a bust.  That’s not fair and it’s not accurate.   He’s steadily between 10-15th best in the league and is playing at a higher level than that this year.  I think he takes shots from detractors that he definitely wouldn’t if he been drafted later.   The Rams winning the SB after he left doesn’t help but there were many other factors involved in that other than just QB. 

The disastrous first season (ie. the last gasp of Jeff Fisher) is a part of the story as well - what little he played, he was awful in that first year on an absolutely awful team. And, iirc, he was largely treated like crap by that coaching staff and lost a ton of confidence as a result. And that more than anything else really set up McVey to kinda look like the guy who "made" Goff - people went from writing him off as a bust to declaring that McVey had "fixed" Goff in a matter of months.

The 1/1 thing is a factor as well, but there are some unique circumstances in Goff's background which have kinda led to the perceptions imo. It's a complicated story, but the reality is that while McVey deserves a lot of credit, Goff is a good QB in this league and, only now it seems, is he starting to get more of a benefit of the doubt.

Edited December 15, 2022 by mtutiger

[4hzglory]

16 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

for a group of avid football fans (you're posting in a Lions message board, for chrissakes), you don't have a lot of confidence in your ability to assess talent. If you did, you would see that Bryce Young is the only guy you would draft from this class with the Rams pick.  And he probably won't be there.  None of the others are worthy at that pick.  Perhaps with the Lions own pick, if Levis or Richardson drop.  

In this draft, it's Bryce or bust.  Otherwise, take the best defense players available, live with Goff for another year, or find a different way to get an established, proven QB. 

I think you are overestimating your ability to assess talent.  We don't know for sure.  What if, for example, Stroud blows up and dominates against Georgia and Michigan in the playoff?  What if someone like Levis or Richardson is the one Holmes likes and available with the Lions pick?  Or what if Holmes goes defense with the Rams pick, but thinks it is worth trading up to get Stroud/Levis/Richardson with one or more of his extra picks?  Or if he sees a later round pick that really stands out to him?  It doesn't have to be with the Rams pick for this to happen.  I trust Holmes to evaluate much more than myself or anyone else on this board as he has earned it in his time here and with the Rams.  If Holmes doesn't see any of them worthy and commits to Goff, I trust him also.

[Motown Bombers]

Guess we just going to keep regurgitating Goff benefited greatly from McVay and ignore what he's doing now. 

[4hzglory]

21 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

You can say this about any position on the field. You can say it about RT. It's really about whether a QB is a significant improvement over Goff. I don't think there is a significant improvement in this draft. There are significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. 

Yes, but it is much easier and cheaper to get a right tackle than it is to get a top flight QB.

[buddha]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Guess we just going to keep regurgitating Goff benefited greatly from McVay and ignore what he's doing now. 

that doesnt mean goff didnt benefit greatly from mcvay.  it probably says a lot more about how well ben johnson and dan campbell are doing and that perhaps they should be mentioned in the same converaation.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The disastrous first season (ie. the last gasp of Jeff Fisher) is a part of the story as well - what little he played, he was awful in that first year on an absolutely awful team. And, iirc, he was largely treated like crap by that coaching staff and lost a ton of confidence as a result. And that more than anything else really set up McVey to kinda look like the guy who "made" Goff - people went from writing him off as a bust to declaring that McVey had "fixed" Goff in a matter of months.

The 1/1 thing is a factor as well, but there are some unique circumstances in Goff's background which have kinda led to the perceptions imo. It's a complicated story, but the reality is that while McVey deserves a lot of credit, Goff is a good QB in this league and, only now it seems, is he starting to get more of a benefit of the doubt.

I didn't pay much attention to those Fisher teams but just assumed it was because he was a rookie and only played 7 games. I do seem to recall talks of bust and some reluctance to play him. 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

that doesnt mean goff didnt benefit greatly from mcvay.  it probably says a lot more about how well ben johnson and dan campbell are doing and that perhaps they should be mentioned in the same converaation.

Ben Johnson built his system around Goff instead of forcing Goff into his system. One would think an offensive genius like McVay would do that. 

[Hongbit]

13 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Sure, there's no doubt that McVay played a big part in his early career success (or Fisher was just that horrible) but that has little to do with his success now. He actually had to be "rebuilt" after the McVay teardown.

I think we both agree here.  Again, I never said he was a fraud and his early success was 100% McVey.   He’s always been a quality QB and he’s proving that again here without the Rams.  

[4hzglory]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Guess we just going to keep regurgitating Goff benefited greatly from McVay and ignore what he's doing now. 

I think McVay treated Goff unfairly and expected more of him than Goff could do.  I don't think he is a quarterback whisperer.  I think he wants to run what he wants to run and doesn't care if it fits the player.  I do think Stafford was a significant upgrade for what McVay wanted to run.  And I think Goff would have been much worse in Detroit than Stafford was under Patricia.  

I think Goff is a solid QB that teams can win with.  There is an article out on the Athletic about revisiting QB tiers and for this year they would move Goff from Tier 3 (preseason where they ranked him 22) to mid Tier 2, but most surveyed still believed he was upper Tier 3 (in the 15-20 range) going forward.  You can win with that.  

How Goff finishes out this season will definitely be a factor.  If he finishes strong which I hope and believe he will, not much changes from now.  If his weapons/line are mostly healthy and he falters the last 4 weeks,  that definitely has to be something to consider.

[RandyMarsh]

25 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

for a group of avid football fans (you're posting in a Lions message board, for chrissakes), you don't have a lot of confidence in your ability to assess talent. If you did, you would see that Bryce Young is the only guy you would draft from this class with the Rams pick.  And he probably won't be there.  None of the others are worthy at that pick.  Perhaps with the Lions own pick, if Levis or Richardson drop.  

In this draft, it's Bryce or bust.  Otherwise, take the best defense players available, live with Goff for another year, or find a different way to get an established, proven QB. 

If Bryce was 3 inches taller and 30 lbs heavier he'd be considered one of those generational type prospects cause his game is that good but unfortunately he isn't and there just isnt want precedent set in the league for a guy his size. 

There may have been guys equally as short but none as slender, may have been guys as slender but not as short, we simply have nobody to compare it to and anytime that is the case it makes you a little weary. 

Its just hard to predict how that frame will hold up to NFL players hitting him week in and week out 17 games a year.  On top of that an underappreciated danger is vast majority of nfl teams play on turf instead of grass and by all accounts that is far tougher on the body so another thing you have to consider. 

To me he's the type of guy that very well could put up an MVP season any given year but also could be the guy who could be oft injured and has lost seasons because of it. 

[4hzglory]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Ben Johnson built his system around Goff instead of forcing Goff into his system. One would think an offensive genius like McVay would do that. 

That's why I don't think McVay is an offensive genius.  I think he originally did that more, but then expected Goff to continue to grow in ways Goff wasn't capable.  McVay seems stubborn to me where Campbell, Johnson, and Glenn build their systems around their players skills. 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

I think McVay treated Goff unfairly and expected more of him than Goff could do.  I don't think he is a quarterback whisperer.  I think he wants to run what he wants to run and doesn't care if it fits the player.  I do think Stafford was a significant upgrade for what McVay wanted to run.  And I think Goff would have been much worse in Detroit than Stafford was under Patricia.  

I think Goff is a solid QB that teams can win with.  There is an article out on the Athletic about revisiting QB tiers and for this year they would move Goff from Tier 3 (preseason where they ranked him 22) to mid Tier 2, but most surveyed still believed he was upper Tier 3 (in the 15-20 range) going forward.  You can win with that.  

How Goff finishes out this season will definitely be a factor.  If he finishes strong which I hope and believe he will, not much changes from now.  If his weapons/line are mostly healthy and he falters the last 4 weeks,  that definitely has to be something to consider.

I agree with that assessment. I feel, though, after you committed the amount of money you did to Goff and basically signal he is your franchise QB, you should adapt your system to him. That doesn't seem like great coaching to me. 

[4hzglory]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

I agree with that assessment. I feel, though, after you committed the amount of money you did to Goff and basically signal he is your franchise QB, you should adapt your system to him. That doesn't seem like great coaching to me. 

Personally I don't think he is a great coach.  I think they drafted great late, and had a great team, but I think there are a number of coaches that could have had similar success. 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, 4hzglory said:

That's why I don't think McVay is an offensive genius.  I think he originally did that more, but then expected Goff to continue to grow in ways Goff wasn't capable.  McVay seems stubborn to me where Campbell, Johnson, and Glenn build their systems around their players skills. 

We're on the same page here. There's something I just don't like about McVay. He's got that Patricia type arrogance but he actually wins. I feel like he's the type if the Rams continue to lose that players will turn on him but I also think he is the type to bail before it gets to that point. 

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I didn't pay much attention to those Fisher teams but just assumed it was because he was a rookie and only played 7 games. I do seem to recall talks of bust and some reluctance to play him. 

Yeah, they started off with Case Keenum for most of that year, he only really saw action later on and it didn't go well at all. The rebound in year two from a QBR perspective (something like a 40 point increase) was not expected.

Had McVey had Goff as an actual rookie and not a second year QB coming off Jeff Fisher's season from hell, the perceptions would have been somewhat different and one could see it being more of a shared responsibility more than the popular narrative which leans toward Goff owing his success to McVey. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by mtutiger