2023 NFL Draft Thread

[RandyMarsh]

As far as qb goes I just don't think this is the draft to do it in. Levis and Richardson do have the tantalizing upside but they also have too many question marks for me to feel comfortable using the 6th pick on unless Holmes and company have one of them clearly on the top of the board in which case you probably have to take them. 

My feelings though are that We're really close to getting to that 49ers and Chiefs territory where they had enough pieces to take a chance on Lance and Mahomes but were not quite there yet. 

If we nail this draft and next year make a run in the playoffs only to come up short bc of Goff's play then you can make a run at a qb in 2024. When you have a stacked roster you can afford to perhaps overpay to move up in the draft to get your guy. Unfortunately we're just not there yet.

Edited January 10, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[mtutiger]

32 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Damn Goff was closer to Mahomes than anybody was to Goff. 

Whenever I think of both of these guys, I think about this game:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201811190ram.htm

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

if im ranking those ten qbs for last season i would have it:

mahomes

allen

burrow

brady

hurts

goff

lawrence

tua

geno

garappolo

might flip goff and lawrence.  would definitely take lawrence moving forward.

Don't understand Brady being that high... 

[Motown Bombers]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Whenever I think of both of these guys, I think about this game:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201811190ram.htm

The very next game after that one for Goff and the Rams? Against the Lions where the Lions defense actually held up well. Only completed 51% of his passes and had 1 TD and 1 INT for a 68 QB rating. I remember Belichick crediting that game for how they played Goff in the Super Bowl. Goff was even worse the following week against Chicago throwing for 0 TDs and 4 INTs and a 19 QB rating. Honestly, Goff hasn't really quite been the same after that KC game until this season. 

[Tenacious D]

Use a later round and take a flyer on Herndon, Haener, Duggan or Bennett.

Please address the D with rounds 1-2, and get a OL, TE and RB in the middle rounds.

But ultimately agree that Holmes gets the benefit of the doubt to do whatever he wants.

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The very next game after that one for Goff and the Rams? Against the Lions where the Lions defense actually held up well. Only completed 51% of his passes and had 1 TD and 1 INT for a 68 QB rating. I remember Belichick crediting that game for how they played Goff in the Super Bowl. Goff was even worse the following week against Chicago throwing for 0 TDs and 4 INTs and a 19 QB rating. Honestly, Goff hasn't really quite been the same after that KC game until this season. 

Honestly forgot all about that... And of course BB credited Matty P lol

[NYLion]

7 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

There are a couple of questions regarding who they may pick in the first round. 

Will they consider a DE? They have Hutch obviously at WDE, and Paschal and Cominsky at SDE. And Houston at Edge, so they do not have a need. I have seen a couple of mocks where Wilson or Murphy go to Detroit. Anderson seems like a longshot and he plays Hutch's position anyway. So I don't believe they will take one, seems like an opportunity to trade down.

QB. I still think they will consider taking one, but it is becoming a longshot that they like a QB enough to take one at 6, and that QB actually lasts that long. Having a QB that is good and not making 30 million a year is a huge advantage salary cap wise, plus they could probably get some picks for Goff if they traded him.

Will they consider a lower impact position at either 6 or 18? Like Robinson or any ILB that may be there at 18? Unless they LOVE Robinson and he lasts to 18 they are looking at CB or DL at both picks.

If there's any pattern with Holmes, it's expected the unexpected and one of the things to not expect is for him to draft for need. He seems to shoot for guys with high ceilings, elite level athletes.

I don't see him shoehorning himself into taking a DT or CB simply because it's a big need. If he sees a receiver he really likes, I could see him taking one in the 1st round, same with running back, offensive tackle, maybe even QB (Richardson?). Elite athletic traits, that seems to be what Holmes thirsts for.

[Tenacious D]

I didn’t think the Sewell or Hutch picks were unexpected. Agree with the athleticism, but would be surprised to see him ignore the defense unless he either thinks he can address in free agency or believes that this is a two-draft (2024) fix.  

[RandyMarsh]

The Sewell pick wasn't unexpected cause of his talent but we had more pressing needs than OT but he didn't care, he just went with who he felt was the best talent. 

Same with trading up for Jamo, while we could use a speedster at WR it wasn't the most glaring issue but again he didn't care, he had Jamo as the last 1st round grade on his board so he made sure to trade up to get him. 

You could also say the same about doubling down with Levi and Alim back to back,he couldve went another direction but he felt Alim was the best prospect available so he took him even though he just took a similar player the pick before. 

[Longgone]

4 hours ago, KL2 said:

arm strength is about more than just throwing it 50 yards hauss

When you are consistently wrong about something, and you are wrong about Goff's arm strength, it's okay to just admit you are wrong, rather than persisting in doubling down on your wrongness. That will never make you right or respected.

[Longgone]

21 minutes ago, NYLion said:

If there's any pattern with Holmes, it's expected the unexpected and one of the things to not expect is for him to draft for need. He seems to shoot for guys with high ceilings, elite level athletes.

I don't see him shoehorning himself into taking a DT or CB simply because it's a big need. If he sees a receiver he really likes, I could see him taking one in the 1st round, same with running back, offensive tackle, maybe even QB (Richardson?). Elite athletic traits, that seems to be what Holmes thirsts for.

Moreso, the NFL is a game of matchups, and i believe Holmes looks for players that give a matchup advantage.

[MichiganCardinal]

I think when you’re engaging in a full scale tear down and rebuild, like Holmes needed to when taking over from Quinn, you don’t need to even think about need when you start, because everything is a need. You just need foundational pieces and talent. That’s more likely to come from a OT, Edge, and WR (his three 1sts so far) than a TE, but at the end of the day you just need to start somewhere.

Two drafts later now, not that we are one piece away, but you’re able to start evaluating the roster more comprehensively. What pieces are here to stay? Where do we still need to upgrade? What do I need to worry about two seasons from now? Where do I need depth? That’s “need” to an extent, but I think it’s also just a map for building a good team.

[1984Echoes]

36 minutes ago, NYLion said:

If there's any pattern with Holmes, it's expected the unexpected and one of the things to not expect is for him to draft for need. He seems to shoot for guys with high ceilings, elite level athletes.

I don't see him shoehorning himself into taking a DT or CB simply because it's a big need. If he sees a receiver he really likes, I could see him taking one in the 1st round, same with running back, offensive tackle, maybe even QB (Richardson?). Elite athletic traits, that seems to be what Holmes thirsts for.

I agree he goes with elite athletes, elite playmakers, elite gamechangers.

But here 's where I would disagree:

1) He's aware of positional value and drafts accordingly. Today's game devalues RB's. I don't think he'll use a 1st on a RB.

2) He also is aware of team building. That doesn't overrule talent... but if there's an opportunity to address both a great talent and a need, I believe he takes those opportunities. That's why I see both 1st rounders on Defense. Both the need, and the talent, are there.

So a 1st round QB better be better than Goff. And I don't see one better than Goff in this year's draft. So a later round backup QB to be drafted at best, not a 1st rounder. Should he draft an OT at #6 if the OT is the best talent? (a) I see the better talent at DT/ DE than at OT, although others may disagree, (b) the need is for 1 more DL'man talent to build a ferocious defense, and (c) as would have it, several extremely talented game changers most likely will be there in 1 of Jalen Carter, Will Anderson & Myles Murphy.

Why CB? Because there are several elite talents at CB that 1 or 2 should be available at 18 and not only will they be amongst the most talented players available at that point, but in building the Lions, that's the highest position of need. A marriage of talent and need so to speak. And again, instead of considering Bijan Robinson if he's there, I think Holmes will default to positional value and the devaluation of 1st round RB's in the league.

Just my 2 cents.

[RandyMarsh]

Btw Holmes didn't completely shut down the notion of drafting a qb in his presser today but sounds like he is committed to Goff.

One of his quotes resonated with me and that was "it is alot easier to get worse at qb than it is to get better". Fans and front offices alike dream of getting that next Mahomes but you are far more likely to get the next Zack Wilson so when you have a more than competent guy in house who is still young maybe your best course of action is to try to do everything you can to win with him instead of using resources on an unknown commodity.

 

[1984Echoes]

That's what was in my previous comment...

You better KNOW that you are getting a better QB than Goff otherwise, what's the point?

[Longgone]

6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

That's what was in my previous comment...

You better KNOW that you are getting a better QB than Goff otherwise, what's the point?

A solid back up, because quarterbacks go down all the time, and if Goff goes down right now, they are dead in the water.

[Motown Bombers]

Alex Smith and the Chiefs get mentioned a lot, but one Goff is simply better than Smith, Mahomes was drafted when Smith was 33, and KC traded a 2nd round pick for Smith when he was 29. 

[1984Echoes]

11 minutes ago, Longgone said:

A solid back up, because quarterbacks go down all the time, and if Goff goes down right now, they are dead in the water.

That's what I agree with... which, to me, means a later round project that the team believes they can develop into at least a competent backup, and/or a FA signing that is better than Nate Sudfeld (who I think is actually a capable backup, nothing spectacular... but just good enough to handle a couple games if needed...).

[Longgone]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

That's what I agree with... which, to me, means a later round project that the team believes they can develop into at least a competent backup, and/or a FA signing that is better than Nate Sudfeld (who I think is actually a capable backup, nothing spectacular... but just good enough to handle a couple games if needed...).

They need someone better than that, someone who can push Goff, and replace him if need be. It also can be a valuable asset. 

[Motown Bombers]

Lions have two 6th round picks and I would take a long look at a kicker. I don't think Holmes is the type to draft a kicker but I don't think Badgely is the answer. 

[1984Echoes]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Lions have two 6th round picks and I would take a long look at a kicker. I don't think Holmes is the type to draft a kicker but I don't think Badgely is the answer. 

Agreed.

[Jason_R]

2 hours ago, NYLion said:

If there's any pattern with Holmes, it's expected the unexpected and one of the things to not expect is for him to draft for need. He seems to shoot for guys with high ceilings, elite level athletes.

I don't see him shoehorning himself into taking a DT or CB simply because it's a big need. If he sees a receiver he really likes, I could see him taking one in the 1st round, same with running back, offensive tackle, maybe even QB (Richardson?). Elite athletic traits, that seems to be what Holmes thirsts for.

Elite level athletes, and dawgs. 

Is Bijan Robinson a dawg? He is certainly en elite athlete and a three-down player. But if he got that dawg in him he might be a Lion with pick 18. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[MichiganCardinal]

24 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Lions have two 6th round picks and I would take a long look at a kicker. I don't think Holmes is the type to draft a kicker but I don't think Badgely is the answer. 

If we had a Hanson or Prater, the Bills game may have turned out completely differently. The 29-yarder he missed was the difference in the game, despite the Lions having a chance to win late. Likewise against Seattle, where Dominick Eberle (remember him??) missed two extra points. Having a reliable kicker is an absolute must in a sport where there are only 17 games, and many of them are decided by one score.

I think Badgley was a satisfactory band-aid over the gaping hole at kicker, but I don't think he is any sort of long-term solution. He's not reliable past 50 yards, and when this team is really good (as soon as next year), I don't want to be faced with a 4th & 10 late in the game on the opponent's 40 where we have to make a decision to either go for it or punt. I want to put the next Evan McPherson out there and know he's going to drill that mofo through.

[buddha]

3 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

If we had a Hanson or Prater, the Bills game may have turned out completely differently. The 29-yarder he missed was the difference in the game, despite the Lions having a chance to win late. Likewise against Seattle, where Dominick Eberle (remember him??) missed two extra points. Having a reliable kicker is an absolute must in a sport where there are only 17 games, and many of them are decided by one score.

I think Badgley was a satisfactory band-aid over the gaping hole at kicker, but I don't think he is any sort of long-term solution. He's not reliable past 50 yards, and when this team is really good (as soon as next year), I don't want to be faced with a 4th & 10 late in the game on the opponent's 40 where we have to make a decision to either go for it or punt. I want to put the next Evan McPherson out there and know he's going to drill that mofo through.

stopping seattle once might have been an even bigger factor...