2023 NFL Draft Thread

[MichiganCardinal]

4 minutes ago, NYLion said:

He deserves some leeway when you're talking about when a QB as highly touted as he was goes 7-2 down the stretch with 15 TDs and 2 INTs under a real coach now (I don't even think the season with Urban should count). I think he'll start to take off from here, too much talent and drive to not to.

 

Just now, buddha said:

lawrence made great progress as the year went on.  he's in his second year and has a division title and playoff win under his belt.  he has arm strength, mobility, and great size.  unlike justin fields, he can get the ball out in under 3 seconds.  unless he gets injured he's going to be very good.

as nylion said, this is his first year with a legitimate nfl head coach calling plays for him.  he's going to be fine.  i think he'll look a lot like joe burrow next year.

Next year will tell us a lot. I think Pederson is overrated too FWIW (though at least he's an actual adult coach unlike Meyer). If he succeeds next year and wins the AFC South again while continuing to improve, I'll eat my crow. I'm glad he's in the AFC, he's got the potential for sure.

[Motown Bombers]

Pederson did get an MVP season out of Wentz but then Wentz regressed and has been broken ever since. 

[Jason_R]

6 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

It's Chad Henne. I legitimately thought he retired like 10 years ago. 

Didn’t he play under Lloyd Carr!?! 

[Cruzer1]

2 hours ago, NYLion said:

You don't need to draft a developmental QB in the 1st round who will be a backup for the next few years. Perhaps if Goff had an uneven performance this season and the Lions were further behind in the rebuild. Now that they are closer to "win now", you want to draft potential starters with the high picks and take the project QB later in the draft.

A backup QB is a potential starter.

[MichiganCardinal]

Really interesting article by a guy who I find to be one of the premier draft analysts not employed by a major network. Year-in and year-out his mock drafts tend to be some of the best. I think he started something like 9/9 in 2022.

Obviously still very early, but it makes you wonder if Robinson may be on the table for the Cardinals, Seahawks, and/or Lions. Holmes does seem like the guy who would take the elite player over filling a more apparent need. I'm very encouraged by the quality of depth that is referenced towards the end of the article. Holmes seems to be the perfect guy at finding the diamonds of the 4th round and beyond. Source is linked here.

Quote

Teams Feel 2023 NFL Draft Lacks Elite Talent

Updated Jan. 16, 2023
By Charlie Campbell. Follow Charlie on Twitter @draftcampbell.

Every NFL draft has its positions of strength, and even while some years are said to be bad, there are always some good players found. All NFL franchises are looking for elite talents who can be game-changers and carry a team to competing for a championship. Two years ago, pro teams felt there were some elite prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft, like tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and offensive tackle Penei Sewell. For the 2022 NFL Draft, teams thought Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson were the cusp of that status, but a notch below. This year, teams feel the 2023 NFL Draft lacks elite talent overall. Sources from seven different NFL teams told WalterFootball.com the only player who had received an elite grade was Texas running back Bijan Robinson.

"Of these players that you think you could say is among the best at their position in the league in their first couple of seasons, you would only say Bijan," said an AFC scouting director.

Robinson is viewed across the scouting community as being a complete package with size, speed, athleticism, rare instincts, rare receiving ability and excellent character.

The consensus top-two prospects for the 2023 NFL Draft have been Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson and Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. All seven team sources, however, said their organizations do not have an elite grade on either of them. As previously noted in the Hot Press, Anderson carries skill-set concerns, while teams don't like parts of Carter's make up namely they question his work ethic and if he really loves football. Multiple sources also question why Carter did not produce more when he was so much more talented than the blockers he was facing.

"Anderson is a heck of a player," said the AFC scouting director. "Just not in the special category in terms of physical traits and upside that the great ones typically have. Nothing about his size, speed, or length is special. It's all above average to good honestly.

"Carter is gifted no doubt, but I don't see a Ndamukong Suh- or Quinnen Williams-caliber of player. He may have similar size, power, and quickness to those two, but they were way more polished and productive with rushing the passer at this point. Carter is not Darrell Russell, Richard Seymour or Albert Haynesworth caliber like some of the talking heads have compared him to."

While Robinson is the only player who has a consensus elite grade for the 2023 NFL Draft, teams feel this year's draft has really good depth. They like the talent and depth of talent available in the middle of the first round, late in the first round, and in the second and third round. They feel the 2023 NFL Draft consists more of a quantity of solid prospects over having a number of special and elite players at the top.

Edited January 17, 2023 by MichiganCardinal

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Really interesting article by a guy who I find to be one of the premier draft analysts not employed by a major network. Year-in and year-out his mock drafts tend to be some of the best. I think he started something like 9/9 in 2022.

Obviously still very early, but it makes you wonder if Robinson may be on the table for the Cardinals, Seahawks, and/or Lions. Holmes does seem like the guy who would take the elite player over filling a more apparent need. I'm very encouraged by the quality of depth that is referenced towards the end of the article. Holmes seems to be the perfect guy at finding the diamonds of the 4th round and beyond. Source is linked here.

If Holmes thinks he's the next Marshall Faulk, I say go ahead and draft him 6th. Those kind of dynamic players don't come around often. If he's the next Reggie Bush, massive hype but only solid production, than hard pass. 

[MichiganCardinal]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

If Holmes thinks he's the next Marshall Faulk, I say go ahead and draft him 6th. Those kind of dynamic players don't come around often. If he's the next Reggie Bush, massive hype but only solid production, than hard pass. 

It makes you wonder why the lack of production at times at Texas. Granted, the guy won the Doak Walker, so he's obviously very good, but for a guy gaining comps to Faulk and Barry, you would expect him to be an absolute NCAA sensation. I don't know enough about the Big 12 to know what kind of offense Texas is running right now, but he only had 19 receptions in 2022 and both TCU and Alabama were able to effectively contain him. Maybe that speaks more for the offensive line than him as a rusher?

[MichiganCardinal]

Reading further into what Charlie Campbell has written, it's clear he's in love with Bijan Robinson as a prospect. This is a long read, but the direct quotes from a scout (below the summary) is particularly interesting. Source here.

Quote

Bijan Robinson Scouting Report
By Charlie Campbell
 

Strengths:

• Instinctive, natural runner
• Elusive; excellent moves in the open field to dodge tacklers
• Decisive runner
• Fast to the hole and explosive
• Speed to break off long runs on any carry
• Threat to score on any carry
• Starts games fast; doesn't need carries to get in a groove
• Rare acceleration
• Tough, physical runner
• Power back who can run over defenders
• Picks up lots of yards after contact
• Keeps feet going after contact
• Excellent vision
• Great feet
• Cutting ability
• Ideal build and size
• Finishes runs well
• Capable of creating for himself
• Capable of controlling games
• Runs well in the second half
• Quality short-yardage back
• Rare shiftiness for big back; will juke defenders
• Has a second gear in the open field
• Nice, soft hands
• Receiving ability
• Excellent route-runner
• Willing blocker in blitz pickup, has potential to be very good
• Hard-nosed runner between the tackles
• Has a nose for the end zone
• Superb, powerful stiff arm
• Wears down and intimidates defenses
• Excellent knee bend
• Runs behind his pads
• Perfect fit for a zone-blocking system
• Perfect fit for a man-blocking system
• Ball security
• Durable
• Good character
• Hard worker
• Loves football

Weaknesses:

• Good speed, but not elite like a Chris Johnson or Todd Gurley

Summary: Robinson was one of the top recruits in the country, and he immediately showed special ability at Texas. In 2020, Robinson flashed his big-time skill set recording 703 yards on only 86 carries - 8.2 average - and four touchdowns. He also took 15 receptions for 196 yards and two scores that season. As a sophomore, Robinson was one of the best players in college football regardless of position. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry in 2021 for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also caught 26 passes for 295 yards and four scores.

In 2022, Robinson averaged 6.1 yards per carry for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also notched 19 receptions for 314 yards and two scores. Team sources have been blown away with his talent, and he is loved throughout the scouting community.

As we reported in the Hot Press, sources from a number of teams have Robinson graded higher than other recent top-five running back prospects of Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott. Here is what one area scout shared with WalterFootball.com:

Quote

"It's rare that the best pure runner is also the best pure receiver; that's what makes Bijan unique," said an area scout. "He can legitimately go run routes like a true receiver. His skill set is more Marshall Faulk than any of those guys. Saquon can obviously win in the passing game, but he's not out running routes like Reggie Bush (Bijan does). His ball skills are as good as the top receivers in this class.

"There are other runners on his level or even a notch better, but you're talking about the elite of every class, even on that alone. You can realistically run the offense thru him because he's in on every situation as your RB1, 1-2nd Down, 2 minute, 4 minute. He's more advanced all around than [Reggie] Bush, Joe Mixon, Saquon, Zeke. McCaffrey would have been like that had he been 215 pounds like Bijan. You have to go back to Faulk to find an elite runner and receiver like Bijan."

Robinson is a flat-out stud running back. While he has a very good skill set with size and speed, Robinson's instincts and natural running ability makes him a dominant back. Thanks to incredible vision and feel, Robinson seems to be a step ahead of the defense, and that that leads to him making defenders look silly in their tackling attempts on a routine basis. Robinson has incredible cutting ability, changing direction in an instant. It is rare to see a big back who is so sudden in his movements to out-cut defensive backs and second-level defenders, but Robinson jukes and cuts by them with shocking ease. With his feel, Robinson can be a one-cut downhill zone-rushing runner or function in a man-blocking scheme who can create on his own. Robinson has a superb jump cut that leaves defenders grasping at air. With his natural ability, Robinson is capable of carrying his offense and his team to a win.

To be an effective running back in the NFL, an athlete has to have speed, and there is no doubt that Robinson has the gas to be effective. He has a quick first-step and hits the hole quickly. With a second gear, Robinson can accelerate to the next level, and he is fast enough to break off long runs. Despite Robinson lacking Chris Johnson- or Todd Gurley-type speed, he is plenty fast enough to be a good pro back.

Robinson completes the skill set with NFL power. He has a strong build and breaks a lot of tackles to pick up yards after contact. Utilizing natural knee bend, Robinson runs behind his pads and keeps his legs churning after contact. With Robinson's developed upper body, defenders have a hard time of controlling him to get him on the ground. He also uses a wicked stiff arm to push tacklers away and continue to gain yardage. Robinson has some highlight-reel stiff arms on tape that made defenders look ugly in their tackling attempts. Robinson's size and power makes him an asset in short-yardage situations as well.

In the passing game, Robinson is going to be an asset and a mismatch weapon. He is a phenomenal receiver, and team sources saying see him run routes like a wide receiver is jaw dropping. Robinson runs superb routes to create separation and gets open for his quarterback. He has soft hands and tracks the ball well. Robinson has made some amazing highlight-reel catches, contorting his body and adjusting to the ball in ways that have not been seen from a big strong running back.

As a pro, Robinson will be a dangerous mismatch weapon as a receiver with his speed and shiftiness in the open field. He could have the ability to line up in the slot and run routes like other talented receiving backs such as Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey. Robinson is also a willing blocker in pass protection and will dish out some good hits. Once he learns his protection assignments in the NFL, he should be a devastating three-down starter.

On top of his skill set, team sources rave about Robinson as a person. They say he is a super hard worker, loves football, is a great teammate, and is not a partier. He is low key and calm off the field, so coaches will not have to worry about him getting in trouble.

Robinson is potentially the best player in the 2023 NFL Draft, and pro teams think he has rare ability and superstar potential. He is a lock to go in the top half of the first round. In the NFL, Robinson could be a franchise player who makes a huge impact on leading his team to wins. He could be a Pro Bowler as early as his rookie season and possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the league during his rookie contract. Robinson is a generational talent who could go on to a prolific and legendary NFL career.

Player Comparison: Saquon Barkley/Christian McCaffrey. Robinson is a mix of Barkley and McCaffrey. As a running back, Robinson is similar to Barkley. Barkley is maybe a tick faster, but Robinson is more elusive and tougher. They are both instinctive and dynamic runners. As a receiver, Robinson is like McCaffrey. Like McCaffrey, Robinson is a tremendous route runner with fabulous hands, ball adjustment, and mismatch potential.

 

[Jason_R]

2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Really interesting article by a guy who I find to be one of the premier draft analysts not employed by a major network. Year-in and year-out his mock drafts tend to be some of the best. I think he started something like 9/9 in 2022.

Obviously still very early, but it makes you wonder if Robinson may be on the table for the Cardinals, Seahawks, and/or Lions. Holmes does seem like the guy who would take the elite player over filling a more apparent need. I'm very encouraged by the quality of depth that is referenced towards the end of the article. Holmes seems to be the perfect guy at finding the diamonds of the 4th round and beyond. Source is linked here.

I’ve been reading Campbell’s takes on Robinson too. He says seven NFL scouts claim that Robinson is the ONLY elite talent in the draft. (I’m not saying this is true, but he says it.)

I would cringe if they pick a RB at six, but if they pick this RB at 18 and high five each other like when they got Sewell and Jaymo then LFG. 

I have seen a few mocks where Robinson lasts into the second round. 

[KL2]

3 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

It makes you wonder why the lack of production at times at Texas. Granted, the guy won the Doak Walker, so he's obviously very good, but for a guy gaining comps to Faulk and Barry, you would expect him to be an absolute NCAA sensation. I don't know enough about the Big 12 to know what kind of offense Texas is running right now, but he only had 19 receptions in 2022 and both TCU and Alabama were able to effectively contain him. Maybe that speaks more for the offensive line than him as a rusher?

They don't play defense in the big 12. Never have

[MichiganCardinal]

Just now, KL2 said:

They don't play defense in the big 12. Never have

I knew that much from watching TCU give up 110 points in the CFP this year!

[NYLion]

15 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

A backup QB is a potential starter.

The Lions have their starter. Goff has proven over the last season and a half (ever since Lynn was turfed) that he's still a legit starting QB in this league. If you want to draft a developmental QB that could supplant him in 3-4 years perhaps then take one in the later rounds but Goff is their guy for the foreseeable future. How could he not be?

[Motown Bombers]

14 minutes ago, NYLion said:

The Lions have their starter. Goff has proven over the last season and a half (ever since Lynn was turfed) that he's still a legit starting QB in this league. If you want to draft a developmental QB that could supplant him in 3-4 years perhaps then take one in the later rounds but Goff is their guy for the foreseeable future. How could he not be?

People made up their minds on Goff when he was brought over from the Rams. Then when he was given the likes of Khadarel Hoge and Tom Kennedy as his top receivers, they were like see. The season he had this year was as good as just about any Stafford season. He couldn't play well without Gurley and McVay and he completely blew up that narrative. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RedRamage]

17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

People made up their minds on Goff when he was brought over from the Rams. Then when he was given the likes of Khadarel Hoge and Tom Kennedy as his top receivers, they were like see. The season he had this year was as good as just about any Stafford season. He couldn't play well without Gurley and McVay and he completely blew up that narrative. 

As someone who still has some level of question on Goff (his home/away splits still concern me a bit) I would NOT want to see the Lions draft a QB in round 1 as a backup/developmental guy.  If you're taking a QB that high you're taking him as the projected starter in a year (or 2 at the most) I feel.  Right now, even with my nagging doubts, I'm more than happy to ride Goff in 2023.  I would MUCH rather use those high picks for players who can make an impact now (especially on defense) vs. someone who can help in the future.

I would not be opposed to taking a flyer on a high risk/high reward sort of QB who we can maybe develop into Goff's  replacement when/if Goff fades down the line... as well as to have as a solid backup in case of injury... but I'd prefer not to spend any more than a late 2nd round as most.

Having said all that... I'm more than willing to defer to Holmes and co.'s judgement on players.

[Motown Bombers]

How many of these late round developmental QBs actually turn into good QBs? Of course there is the unicorn Tom Brady, but who else? Russell Wilson? Tony Romo? It's more often a wasted pick. Just go all in on a 1st round QB or roll with Goff and sign a veteran backup if backup is that important for a QB that has only missed 3 games due to actual injury the past 6 years. 

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

People made up their minds on Goff when he was brought over from the Rams. Then when he was given the likes of Khadarel Hoge and Tom Kennedy as his top receivers, they were like see. The season he had this year was as good as just about any Stafford season. He couldn't play well without Gurley and McVay and he completely blew up that narrative. 

I saw somebody on another forum comparing him and Geno Smith in the sense that neither will get respect for their breakout season because of past perception. Uhh, one major difference. Geno was a complete bust until last season while Goff went to a Superbowl and was a two time pro bowler. People seem to conveniently forget that. I know you've touched on this before but Goff is much more on a Stafford trajectory than a Smith trajectory careerwise. Apples and Oranges comparison.

There's no guarantees going forward so maybe Goff will regress to what he was in his late Rams tenure but how can anyone not give him the respect he deserves based on what he's done here thus far. He has something like 40 TDs and 9 INTs since Lynn was let go (with periods of a heavily injured receiving core to throw to) and was nearly flawless during the Lions 8-2 run to close this season. What more could you want from him really.

Edited January 18, 2023 by NYLion

[Motown Bombers]

44 minutes ago, NYLion said:

I saw somebody on another forum comparing him and Geno Smith in the sense that neither will get respect for their breakout season because of past perception. Uhh, one major difference. Geno was a complete bust until last season while Goff went to a Superbowl and was a two time pro bowler. People seem to conveniently forget that. I know you've touched on this before but Goff is much more on a Stafford trajectory than a Smith trajectory careerwise. Apples and Oranges comparison.

There's no guarantees going forward so maybe Goff will regress to what he was in his late Rams tenure but how can anyone not give him the respect he deserves based on what he's done here thus far. He has something like 40 TDs and 9 INTs since Lynn was let go (with periods of a heavily injured receiving core to throw to) and was nearly flawless during the Lions 8-2 run to close this season. What more could you want from him really.

Geno Smith is 32 and has never come close to this kind of production. Goff is a former #1 pick and I think that means something. He has the pedigree and talent evaluators, including the Lions GM, believed he was a franchise QB. There also seems to be a perception around his Super Bowl run that he was dragged to the Super Bowl ala Trent Dilfer or Rex Grossman. It's not true. He was good in 2018. A deserving Pro Bowler. It's also not like "bad" Goff was that bad. He was basically average his last two seasons with the Rams and they still won, made the playoffs and won a playoff game. Since becoming a full time starter, he has one losing season in six seasons. Don't forget, the Lions run game regressed for a while during the middle of the season. They had to lean more on Goff and the passing game and Goff actually got better when more was being asked of him and he didn't have the dominant run game to lean on. It kills the narrative that he needs to be coddled and needs such a strong support system. 

The Goff and Stafford trajectories are remarkably similar but Goff has more competent coaching and I believe a better roster than Stafford did at this point in his career so I believe there is more opportunity for team success than just spinning your wheels like the Stafford era. Goff doesn't wow with physical abilities. He isn't going to run it like Hurts or make the off platform throws like Stafford, but he's efficient and doesn't hurt the team. I think the talk about drafting a development QB as a backup is a way to justify drafting a replacement for Goff. Goff hasn't endeared himself to fans yet. He doesn't have that game where he threw the game winning pass with a separated shoulder or had the fake spike game winning TD. If the Lions win some playoff games, that will change perception. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, RedRamage said:

As someone who still has some level of question on Goff (his home/away splits still concern me a bit) I would NOT want to see the Lions draft a QB in round 1 as a backup/developmental guy.  If you're taking a QB that high you're taking him as the projected starter in a year (or 2 at the most) I feel.  Right now, even with my nagging doubts, I'm more than happy to ride Goff in 2023.  I would MUCH rather use those high picks for players who can make an impact now (especially on defense) vs. someone who can help in the future.

I would not be opposed to taking a flyer on a high risk/high reward sort of QB who we can maybe develop into Goff's  replacement when/if Goff fades down the line... as well as to have as a solid backup in case of injury... but I'd prefer not to spend any more than a late 2nd round as most.

Having said all that... I'm more than willing to defer to Holmes and co.'s judgement on players.

+1

That's where I'm at exactly.

[RandyMarsh]

Goff was a victim of his and his teams immediate success under him. When you have that type of immediate success people expect you to just getting better but progression isn't always linear, sometimes you take steps back before taking 2 steps forward and hopefully that is what Goff is doing now. 

[1984Echoes]

30 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

... It kills the narrative that he needs to be coddled and needs such a strong support system...

I think Goff does need a strong support system.

But I think every QB needs a support system because it's a team game and no QB, no matter how good he is, can carry a garbage team forward with any success.

Goff lost all his offensive support with the Rams and did not look good. But he's more than a game manager. As MB points out, he is NOT Dilfer or Grossman. He's better than that. He just is. He's not quite Stafford (arm, creativity and creativity in the face of a tough defense); although he may end up with very comparable stats... But he's a helluva lot better than just a game manager.

He did need some kind of support system to get back on track. And I would say that, in Detroit, he has...

SOME kind of a support system...!

😉

[buddha]

late round flyers on qbs fail 90% of the time.  remember brad kayaa and jake rudock and kellen moore?

if youre taking someone to be a glorified clipboard holder and potential emergency 3rd qb, then ok.  but 9 times out of 10, youre getting nothing and would be better off with sudfeld.

yeah yeah yeah brock purdy.  brock purdy is a product of kyle shanahan, imo.

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I think Goff does need a strong support system.

But I think every QB needs a support system because it's a team game and no QB, no matter how good he is, can carry a garbage team forward with any success.

Goff lost all his offensive support with the Rams and did not look good. But he's more than a game manager. As MB points out, he is NOT Dilfer or Grossman. He's better than that. He just is. He's not quite Stafford (arm, creativity and creativity in the face of a tough defense); although he may end up with very comparable stats... But he's a helluva lot better than just a game manager.

He did need some kind of support system to get back on track. And I would say that, in Detroit, he has...

SOME kind of a support system...!

😉

Weird how when Stafford lost his support system in LA this year and had one of the worst seasons of his career before being injured he isn't just a game manager. Stafford was on pace to have a worse season than any Goff season in LA. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[RedRamage]

38 minutes ago, buddha said:

late round flyers on qbs fail 90% of the time.  remember brad kayaa and jake rudock and kellen moore?

if youre taking someone to be a glorified clipboard holder and potential emergency 3rd qb, then ok.  but 9 times out of 10, youre getting nothing and would be better off with sudfeld.

yeah yeah yeah brock purdy.  brock purdy is a product of kyle shanahan, imo.

Yeah but I'd say that probably 90% of late round picks, regardless of positions, fail.  Just that they might see some time on the field because you rotate a lot of position players and there's special teams as well, while QBs aren't usually rotated in and out.

Now, some may respond: "But Holmes is good a finding diamonds in the late rounds!"  And I would agree... which means he should, in theory, be good at finding a late round diamond QBs, if one exists in any given draft.

[buddha]

4 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Yeah but I'd say that probably 90% of late round picks, regardless of positions, fail.  Just that they might see some time on the field because you rotate a lot of position players and there's special teams as well, while QBs aren't usually rotated in and out.

Now, some may respond: "But Holmes is good a finding diamonds in the late rounds!"  And I would agree... which means he should, in theory, be good at finding a late round diamond QBs, if one exists in any given draft.

if they want a qb to be a clipboard holder, take a flyer on one late and pray he works out.

if they want a qb prospect, take one early.

the more i read and think about the qbs in this draft, i would go against my ohio state bias and take stroud.  he's big, he's accurate, and he showed a lot in that georgia game of being able to move and create.

young is a better college qb but he's really too small for the nfl.  levis is too much of a risk.  richardson has a very high ceiling but ticks all of the boxes for mitch trubisky 2.0 (lack of starts, poor accuracy).

they wont have a shot at stroud unless they trade up and i'd rather have them take defensive players if one is there.

like most of you, i think holmes has earned our trust so i'm ok with what he does.