2023 NFL Draft Thread

[Longgone]

10 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

If Anderson and Carter are off the board and we do end up trading down would you consider doubling up on CBs with our first 2 picks? 

I don't think the Lions would be interested in either of Anderson or Carter at 6, Anderson isn't a physical fit and Carter isnt a character one.

[1984Echoes]

I would look to Myles Murphy, Bresee, or Tyree Wilson, in that order (IMO).

[RedRamage]

14 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

If Anderson and Carter are off the board and we do end up trading down would you consider doubling up on CBs with our first 2 picks? 

I wouldn't be opposed to it if that makes the most sense with the players available.  I mean, I don't want to reach for a CB obviously, but if it makes sense I have no issue with that because Secondary is such a weakness right now.  

[RandyMarsh]

Granted Sauce maybe one of those generational type dbs but besides him, Surtain last year and Woolen this year helped transform their respective defenses almost immediately.

The thought of potentially getting two of those type of players just really intrigues me. 

[RedRamage]

14 hours ago, NYLion said:

The thing is, Goff is right smack dab in the middle of his prime so he could have another 5 high level years easy so if Goff is your starter leading you to the playoffs regularly for the next 2-3 years and Richardson never gets off the bench outside of mop up duty or the occasional meaningless game like Love, how much value does he have when you realize, again, that Goff is your guy and Richardson needs a fresh start elsewhere? You're certainly not trading a 28-30 year old Goff if he's leading a perennial playoff contender.

And what if Goff falls off significantly or gets injured or Richardson is so talented that the Lions have to play him because he's even better than Goff?  

Just to make it clear: I am NOT saying I want to draft Richards. I generally don't think the Lions should draft a QB in the high rounds this year. But you're argument here is essentially a 'what if?' argument.  What if Goff improves or continues to play at this level for the next 5 years?  Sure, then it was a bit of a wasted pick.  But 'what if?' you don't draft a QB and Goff regresses next year and Richardson goes somewhere else and becoming a stud?

Figuring out what the right answer to these questions are is why GMs get paid huge contracts. I'm certainly going to give my opinion on a message board, but ultimately I'm gonna trust Holmes more than myself... or even all the rest of you.

[Motown Bombers]

This is Connor Cook 2.0 and most everybody thought that was ridiculous at the time when Stafford was the same age coming off the same type of season as Goff after having been average for multiple seasons. Goff just needs to endear himself to the fanbase and win playoff games and be cast with other Lions immortals such as Erik Kramer. 

Another thing that strikes me is Holmes saying you can get much worse at QB. I keep thinking about the GM who is in the Lions front office who drafted Mahomes. He also drafted Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen. QB is one of the hardest positions to get right. You have a good one in Goff. Don't get cute and arrogant in your ability. This team is on the cusp of the division title and just needs a couple players to put it over the top. 

[Motown Bombers]

9 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Granted Sauce maybe one of those generational type dbs but besides him, Surtain last year and Woolen this year helped transform their respective defenses almost immediately.

The thought of potentially getting two of those type of players just really intrigues me. 

Holmes has a history on doubling up on positions. He drafted Levi and McNeil back to back, Drafted Hutchinson and Paschal in the 1st and 2nd rounds. I would not be surprised in the least if the Lions walk away with two cornerbacks. 

[RedRamage]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

This team is on the cusp of the division title and just needs a couple players to put it over the top. 

And this is why, even though I'm not 100% sold on Goff, I'd prefer they don't spend a high pick on a QB.  If the team was (more or less) complete, then I'd feel it's safer/easier to draft a developmental/backup QB.  But given the holes we have on defense in particular, I'd rather put the draft picks there.

[Hongbit]

I think it would be a waste to pick a QB in the first round because I don’t like any of them.  

Young is a smaller, less mobile Tua that has always played with great players who in turn made him look better.  

Levis is a crap shoot.  I can see the skills sometimes but I get more Zach Wilson vibe that I do Herbert or Allen.  

Richardson is a project that I fear will try to do too much and screw up our offense that relies on the QB making the smart play and not trying to be Superman all the time.  

I like Stroud the best but he’s a big guy with a nice arm that isn’t really that mobile.  He sounds like a younger, less experienced version of Goff.  I’d rather have JG.   
 

Still on the Bresee & top available cb train.   I also still think Noah Sewell is going to be one of the picks.  His workouts will determine if he’s late first or late 3rd or beyond. 

[buddha]

on the possibility of the lions drafting richardson:

Diante Lee: The Detroit deal comes with the highest upside, and I feel drawn in that direction. First-round quarterbacks are lottery tickets, and for all my appreciation of Stroud’s and Young’s consistency, poise and playmaking in high-leverage situations, there’s something to Richardson that I just can’t quit. His delivery and timing need work (who better to learn from than Jared Goff on that front?), but his pocket navigation and feel for the game are much further ahead than I remembered in my cursory watches of his 2022 film. There won’t be an NFL throw that he can’t make, and the issues he can create with his legs as a fast and physical runner would fit perfectly into Detroit’s smash-mouth offensive philosophy.

Nick Baumgardner

I was a bit surprised to see so many Lions fans throw heat at Dane for linking their team to Richardson. Most of those complaints seemed centered on Detroit trading up a few spots to make that pick and the price paid (a first-rounder and second-rounder). We’ll have to see what the board says about Richardson’s value, but I understand why Dane made the move. As Nate mentioned, Detroit’s situation — a stable veteran starter in Goff and a confident head coach who loves to run the ball in Dan Campbell — would be perfect for Richardson. And his skill set would be perfect for Detroit’s offense if the development happens.

[buddha]

a mobile qb would add a really interesting dimension to the lions running game.

[Longgone]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

on the possibility of the lions drafting richardson:

Diante Lee: The Detroit deal comes with the highest upside, and I feel drawn in that direction. First-round quarterbacks are lottery tickets, and for all my appreciation of Stroud’s and Young’s consistency, poise and playmaking in high-leverage situations, there’s something to Richardson that I just can’t quit. His delivery and timing need work (who better to learn from than Jared Goff on that front?), but his pocket navigation and feel for the game are much further ahead than I remembered in my cursory watches of his 2022 film. There won’t be an NFL throw that he can’t make, and the issues he can create with his legs as a fast and physical runner would fit perfectly into Detroit’s smash-mouth offensive philosophy.

Nick Baumgardner

I was a bit surprised to see so many Lions fans throw heat at Dane for linking their team to Richardson. Most of those complaints seemed centered on Detroit trading up a few spots to make that pick and the price paid (a first-rounder and second-rounder). We’ll have to see what the board says about Richardson’s value, but I understand why Dane made the move. As Nate mentioned, Detroit’s situation — a stable veteran starter in Goff and a confident head coach who loves to run the ball in Dan Campbell — would be perfect for Richardson. And his skill set would be perfect for Detroit’s offense if the development happens.

Richardson is inaccurate, has no touch, has trouble processing and reading defenses. How often do those types become top pros? He's Nuke Laloosh. 

[Longgone]

It would be like taking a basketball player who's a great athlete, but puts up bricks, and saying I'll teach him how to shoot. It's not that easy and seldom works out.

[Motown Bombers]

17 minutes ago, buddha said:

on the possibility of the lions drafting richardson:

Diante Lee: The Detroit deal comes with the highest upside, and I feel drawn in that direction. First-round quarterbacks are lottery tickets, and for all my appreciation of Stroud’s and Young’s consistency, poise and playmaking in high-leverage situations, there’s something to Richardson that I just can’t quit. His delivery and timing need work (who better to learn from than Jared Goff on that front?), but his pocket navigation and feel for the game are much further ahead than I remembered in my cursory watches of his 2022 film. There won’t be an NFL throw that he can’t make, and the issues he can create with his legs as a fast and physical runner would fit perfectly into Detroit’s smash-mouth offensive philosophy.

Nick Baumgardner

I was a bit surprised to see so many Lions fans throw heat at Dane for linking their team to Richardson. Most of those complaints seemed centered on Detroit trading up a few spots to make that pick and the price paid (a first-rounder and second-rounder). We’ll have to see what the board says about Richardson’s value, but I understand why Dane made the move. As Nate mentioned, Detroit’s situation — a stable veteran starter in Goff and a confident head coach who loves to run the ball in Dan Campbell — would be perfect for Richardson. And his skill set would be perfect for Detroit’s offense if the development happens.

My problem with these mocks is that they are lazy and using their preconceived notions that Goff was always just a bridge. All these mocks have the Lions taking a QB but not Seattle. In what universe is Geno Smith a more sure future QB than Goff? And Seattle has a top 5 pick and would likely not have to trade to get one of these QBs. Geno Smith is also a free agent. There's no guarantee he's even in Seattle next year. 

[MichiganCardinal]

5 hours ago, Longgone said:

I don't think the Lions would be interested in either of Anderson or Carter at 6, Anderson isn't a physical fit and Carter isnt a character one.

Carter is an interesting one who the next few months will tell a lot on. I believe the reports that there are character concerns. I thought it was pretty funny how defensive the people at Georgia got when the report came out. I trust Campbell and his staff to make that judgment though. If they think that Carter is a football dude who can mature with age and in the right environment, take him. If he'd be toxic to the locker room, cross him off the list.

Anderson though I think we disagree. I'm not quite sure what you mean by physical fit though. I don't think there is a single position group on the defense that is off limits from improvement. In fact, the only two guys I would write in pen as being week one starters are Hutchinson and Okudah, and I would very much prefer Okudah not be the CB1... If you're referring to Anderson's traits and the lack of any individual elite characteristic, I hear you, but I'm not sure you can ignore that in just three seasons, he is 2nd all-time in career sacks at Alabama. Almost everyone else in the top ten played 4+ seasons. In his college career, he didn't go a game without a tackle, and in the last two years only went seven games without recording a sack. 

At some point you have to look away from traits, characteristics, and analytics and just respect the film and the production. I really don't care how he does it if he can do it. I also don't think any other defensive player is particularly "better" than Anderson in evaluating those traits.

[1984Echoes]

35 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Richardson is inaccurate, has no touch, has trouble processing and reading defenses. How often do those types become top pros? He's Andre Ware 2.0

FTFY

[Longgone]

15 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Carter is an interesting one who the next few months will tell a lot on. I believe the reports that there are character concerns. I thought it was pretty funny how defensive the people at Georgia got when the report came out. I trust Campbell and his staff to make that judgment though. If they think that Carter is a football dude who can mature with age and in the right environment, take him. If he'd be toxic to the locker room, cross him off the list.

Anderson though I think we disagree. I'm not quite sure what you mean by physical fit though. I don't think there is a single position group on the defense that is off limits from improvement. In fact, the only two guys I would write in pen as being week one starters are Hutchinson and Okudah, and I would very much prefer Okudah not be the CB1... If you're referring to Anderson's traits and the lack of any individual elite characteristic, I hear you, but I'm not sure you can ignore that in just three seasons, he is 2nd all-time in career sacks at Alabama. Almost everyone else in the top ten played 4+ seasons. In his college career, he didn't go a game without a tackle, and in the last two years only went seven games without recording a sack. 

At some point you have to look away from traits, characteristics, and analytics and just respect the film and the production. I really don't care how he does it if he can do it. I also don't think any other defensive player is particularly "better" than Anderson in evaluating those traits.

In Detroits defense, I don't believe Anderson can play off the ball full time as a linebacker, I don't believe he can set the edge to the extent that they demand of their defensive ends. That makes him a situational guy that you move around, an excellent one, but I dont think that provides enough value at 6.

regarding Carter, it isnt just poor character the lions try to avoid. They want gym rats who love and are passionate about football, live and breathe it. That doesn't seem to be Carter.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Longgone

[MichiganCardinal]

One of the weird things in evaluating Richardson is not even so much his inaccuracy, but rather the throws he's inaccurate on. It's not usually those long balls. If you watch his highlight film, he can throw some absolute dimes 30-40+ yards downfield that just make you say wow. He's more often missing on the "easy" throws. Crossing routes and check downs, and on plays where he's clearly just not on the same page as his receiver. Obviously these are throws you just need to make as a NFL QB. Why are they difficult for him though? Is it a timing issue? Communication issue? Coaching issue?

I'm not a huge analytics guy, but I'd be interested in evaluating some splits on him too, including accuracy in the pocket versus when he is flushed, and his accuracy set against the amount of time he has in the pocket. Florida's offensive line on the pass isn't world-beating, particularly against some of the better SEC defensive lines. Their stats are definitely conflated too by Richardson's evasiveness. If he had a year or two to gain NFL exposure, behind a top tier offensive line, would he gain some more patience and confidence in those shorter throws?

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Holmes has a history on doubling up on positions. He drafted Levi and McNeil back to back, Drafted Hutchinson and Paschal in the 1st and 2nd rounds. I would not be surprised in the least if the Lions walk away with two cornerbacks. 

I also wouldn't be surprised if they select 2 CB's in 2023 but I don't believe the #6 pick will be used on one.

There are a couple issues:

1) There are 5 "elite" prospects, not necessarily because they are elite but rather: QB'a are the big demand and end up in elite draft pick spots regardless whether they are worth it or not. So Stroud, Young, and Levis. Then there is Anderson and Carter, even if there is personality issues (might not "love" football/motivation, etc...).

2) After that, a lot of prospects with similar grades that result in not much trade down demand.

So I am arguing against a realistic possibility to trade down out of #6. 

 

Which means, IMO, that #6 goes towards the best D-Lineman they evaluate (Murphy, Bresee or Wilson... maybe Carter if he falls to them?). As all those guys will be rated higher than the CB's, IMO.

So #18 should have a choice of half a dozen premium CB's, whoever falls and is available. That's one.

In the 2nd and 3rd round we have 3 picks, but I like the RB's, LB'ers, and Safeties more than the CB's that are available in that area. I think the Lions end up the same.

I think in mocks that I've run I found a project CB or two that were available with our 5th/ 6th round picks that I liked. As well as O-Lineman, Kickers, etc...

There's your second drafted CB. Another late round project. But I'm just guessing.

You know who I want as a second significant CB that we obtain this offseason? The best veteran that we can buy as a FA.

But that's just me...

 

[1984Echoes]

19 minutes ago, Longgone said:

In Detroits defense, I don't believe Anderson can play off the ball full time as a linebacker, I don't believe he can set the edge to the extent that they demand of their defensive ends. That makes him a situational guy that you move around, an excellent one, but I dont think that provides enough value at 6.

regarding Carter, it isnt just poor character the lions try to avoid. They want gym rats who love and are passionate about football, live and breathe it. That doesn't seem to be Carter.

This is exactly what I am thinking/ seeing with those two.

The highest players on my Lions draft board are:

#1 Myles Murphy

#2 Brian Bresee

#3 Tyree Wilson.

 

I actually have Carter higher/ highest except that, if he has motivation/ attitude/ doesn't LOVE football issues then he'll be off of Holmes & Campbell's draft board immediately. So I think the top 3 I listed above stand.

[MichiganCardinal]

14 minutes ago, Longgone said:

In Detroits defense, I don't believe Anderson can play off the ball full time as a linebacker, I don't believe he can set the edge to the extent that they demand of their defensive ends. That makes him a situational guy that you move around, an excellent one, but I dont think that provides enough value at 6.

regarding Carter, it isnt just poor character the lions try to avoid. They want gym rats who love and are passionate about football, live and breathe it. That doesn't seem to be Carter.

I envision Anderson as a a three-down DE / EDGE across from Hutchinson. I don't think he would need to play off ball as a linebacker except in those rare situations where it's drawn up as a disguise (kind of how Hutch got some of his picks this year). I'm also not at all concerned with his ability to set the edge, he had 101 tackles just a year ago.

We saw them adjust the defensive alignment last offseason to more of a 4-2-5 base when Hutch was selected, and if Anderson was selected, I think we could see them come out with a lot of 5-1-5 or 5-2-4 looks. We saw a bit of both of those at times last season in the blitz heavy Glenn defense. Running it more often would need our linebacker(s) to be better than Anzalone at protecting against the quick out, but if your edges are athletic, it can be a very successful formation. It virtually guarantees multiple 1x1 matchups across the front.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I envision Anderson as a a three-down DE / EDGE across from Hutchinson...

He is way too small for that.

He will be crushed/ worn out/ rendered ineffective by the NFL running game and very, very large OT's.

[MichiganCardinal]

20 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

He is way too small for that.

He will be crushed/ worn out/ rendered ineffective by the NFL running game and very, very large OT's.

I don't think this is true, unless they set him up for failure by placing him over top of the tackle (how they kind of did with Hutch to start the season). If you put him standing up as the 7-tech, I don't think he'll have any issues with durability.

If you want to say that Anderson might benefit by gaining 10-15 pounds I won't argue if it doesn't come at the expense of his agility, but I am not worried in the least about him turning into a rotational player in the NFL. His comps have been to Khalil Mack and Shaq Barrett. All three are between 6'2 and 6'4, 240-250 pounds.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Do we expect anything out of Levi for next year or are we chalking that up to a draft bust and allowing ourselves to potentially replace him in the draft? Also, from an edge perspective, what are we expecting out of Josh Paschal?

[NYLion]

3 hours ago, RedRamage said:

And what if Goff falls off significantly or gets injured or Richardson is so talented that the Lions have to play him because he's even better than Goff?  

Just to make it clear: I am NOT saying I want to draft Richards. I generally don't think the Lions should draft a QB in the high rounds this year. But you're argument here is essentially a 'what if?' argument.  What if Goff improves or continues to play at this level for the next 5 years?  Sure, then it was a bit of a wasted pick.  But 'what if?' you don't draft a QB and Goff regresses next year and Richardson goes somewhere else and becoming a stud?

Figuring out what the right answer to these questions are is why GMs get paid huge contracts. I'm certainly going to give my opinion on a message board, but ultimately I'm gonna trust Holmes more than myself... or even all the rest of you.

Isn't it all "What ifs" especially when it comes to QBs that aren't future Hall of Famers, it's almost impossible to know what you're going to get from year to year but I will hedge my bet to Goff being a high quality starter going forward based on his tenure here, which is a year and a half of strong play after Lynn was let go and a history of high quality play with another organization, than him regressing to the point where he gets supplanted by a rookie. Part of it is my growing belief in Goff and part of it is in my even bigger belief in this regime to continue to provide him a strong supporting cast and coaching guidance.

Honestly, I don't think it's even that hard of a decision. A QB like Richardson who is as raw as it gets for a projected high pick isn't likely to help them in their winning window which should be starting right now while just about any other player you draft in the 1st will more than likely provide something of value in the next few years. Love and Lance are two recent examples of this, Willis will likely be another but at least he was a later round pick. I know you're not advocating for them to take a QB early, I was just reiterating my stance on it.