2023 NFL Draft Thread

[buddha]

i love mock draft season.  its every lions fan's favorite time of year.

[CMRivdogs]

2 hours ago, buddha said:

i would be surprised if porter, witherspoon, or gonzalez are there at 18.

ive sort of changed my mind on bryce young.  i think he's too small and is going to get beat up and injured too easily in the pros.  i'd rather have stroud if they want a qb or richardson if they want a mutant hybrid, anti-buckeye bias notwithstanding.

I was just reading an article in 538 about the flack the Eagles received for drafting Jalen Hurts in 2020. Now granted he was a second rounder (#53) but the Eagles had Carson Wentz who then was still considered a viable if not good QB. He had just signed a $128 million dollar extension in June. Howie Roseman said having a good QB was the bedrock of the Eagles philosophy. No one could have predicted that Wentz would turn to crap so quickly.

That said, I still wouldn't use either of the Lions first two picks on a QB. I would prefer to build up the defense first. But if someone like Richardson was still available in the second round I might be tempted to take a look.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-eagles-built-a-winner-by-overdrafting-quarterbacks/

[buddha]

2 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

I was just reading an article in 538 about the flack the Eagles received for drafting Jalen Hurts in 2020. Now granted he was a second rounder (#53) but the Eagles had Carson Wentz who then was still considered a viable if not good QB. He had just signed a $128 million dollar extension in June. Howie Roseman said having a good QB was the bedrock of the Eagles philosophy. No one could have predicted that Wentz would turn to crap so quickly.

That said, I still wouldn't use either of the Lions first two picks on a QB. I would prefer to build up the defense first. But if someone like Richardson was still available in the second round I might be tempted to take a look.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-eagles-built-a-winner-by-overdrafting-quarterbacks/

the lions sent people to five of richardson's games this year.  they are very interested.

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

the lions sent people to five of richardson's games this year.  they are very interested.

Or it was all the same person, the Florida scout that lives in Gainesville and watches the SEC as they come in. 

[MichiganCardinal]

I’m getting turned off on the idea of taking a corner at 6 as of late. Obviously it’s a need, but the draft is so deep and you have a scouting team that can find Kerby Joseph in the 3rd round of a draft that wasn’t as deep. You’ve got two second round picks and all of free agency.

I would have a list of “if they’re there you take them” guys (Anderson and Carter probably), give a concerted effort to trade down if they aren’t there, especially if a Young/Stroud/Levis is still there, and take the BPA if you can’t spin a trade, largely regardless of position (maybe with some exceptions… maybe not).

[RandyMarsh]

Trade down is my option a. Normally Im not all for that if it means passing on a clear cut better prospect, in that case Id rather have that player than the extra capital but in this years case outside of Anderson and Carter(who some folks don't think is a character fit) there just isn't much separation in the players. 

The guy you can get at 20 will probably grade out within a point or 2 of the guy available at 6 so if you can get the same type player later and pick up some extra picks you'd be stupid not to do it. 

[buddha]

27 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I’m getting turned off on the idea of taking a corner at 6 as of late. Obviously it’s a need, but the draft is so deep and you have a scouting team that can find Kerby Joseph in the 3rd round of a draft that wasn’t as deep. You’ve got two second round picks and all of free agency.

I would have a list of “if they’re there you take them” guys (Anderson and Carter probably), give a concerted effort to trade down if they aren’t there, especially if a Young/Stroud/Levis is still there, and take the BPA if you can’t spin a trade, largely regardless of position (maybe with some exceptions… maybe not).

psssst....richardson at 6....you wont have a shot at him at 18.

/ducks

[MichiganCardinal]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

psssst....richardson at 6....you wont have a shot at him at 18.

/ducks

I’ll see your Richardson and raise you a Robinson!

[RandyMarsh]

I'll raise your Robinson with Quentin Johnson.  Physically he's another AJ Brown who runs a sub 4.4, him, ARSB and Jamo would terrorize defenses for years. 

[Motown Bombers]

I'm still trying to find a good NFL QB that had a completion percentage as bad as Richardson in college. The hype seems to be all about physical tools and not if he can actually play the position. If you want someone who is a good runner, draft Robinson. 

[RandyMarsh]

Stafford was only 52 and 55% his first two years at UGA when playing at the same age/experience as Richardson. He also had a ton of talent around him as well. 

[Motown Bombers]

Stafford was up to 61% his junior season and Stafford has never been known as the most accurate passer in the NFL. He flirted with 60% early in his NFL career. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[buddha]

37 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Stafford was only 52 and 55% his first two years at UGA when playing at the same age/experience as Richardson. He also had a ton of talent around him as well. 

as we all know, richardson is a pure upside play and a gamble.  but goff isnt going to be here forever, is coming off a good season but has been up and down in the past, and the lions do need to think about qb in the future.  

i'd be excited if they felt good enough about richardson to draft him.  id also understand if they passed given his college passing performance.

but when i hear that they sent multiple scouts - including holmes himself - to multiple florida games, i think there's a real chance they are considering drafting him (or levis if he falls).

[Motown Bombers]

Goff is 28. As long as he's performing he's going to be around longer than a rookie contract. 

[MichiganCardinal]

CMRivdogs brought up the Eagles above and how they drafted Hurts with Wentz on the roster, depsite Wentz at the time playing well. I think in the same way the Eagles front office (who have turned out to be some of the best in the business) probably knew Wentz was a ticking time bomb, the two individuals who probably have the best gauge on Goff are Brad Holmes and Ray Agnew.

Was Goff's performance in the second half of this season a sign of things to come? Or is this the best we will ever get and we need to replace him before we turn into the Commanders? Their answers to those questions are probably what determines whether Richardson is in play at 18 or in the 2nd Round.

[CMRivdogs]

8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Goff is 28. As long as he's performing he's going to be around longer than a rookie contract. 

I'm sure Eagles fans thought the same thing about Carson Wentz when they drafted Jalen Hurts. 

It never hurts to have a back up plan just in case something happens. Goff getting hit by a bus or a 300 plus LB DE. 

I like Goff and hopes he stays around a long time, but the current backup situation isn't great and I'm not a fan of band-aids (see Washington)

If there is a guy they like available in the first round grab him. I'm not completely sold on Richardson, but I'm sure a couple years as a backup is better than Sudfeld or Blough

[Motown Bombers]

10 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I'm sure Eagles fans thought the same thing about Carson Wentz when they drafted Jalen Hurts. 

It never hurts to have a back up plan just in case something happens. Goff getting hit by a bus or a 300 plus LB DE. 

I like Goff and hopes he stays around a long time, but the current backup situation isn't great and I'm not a fan of band-aids (see Washington)

If there is a guy they like available in the first round grab him. I'm not completely sold on Richardson, but I'm sure a couple years as a backup is better than Sudfeld or Blough

Then sign a veteran backup. Absolutely weird to draft a 1st round QB as a back up to a 28 year old QB who has only missed 3 games due to injury during 6 years. What makes one even think that Richardson, or any other rookie, is going to just come off the bench and keep the team afloat? It's weird there wasn't this much discussion about drafting a backup QB in the 1st round when Stafford was 28. 

[MichiganCardinal]

12 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I'm sure Eagles fans thought the same thing about Carson Wentz when they drafted Jalen Hurts. 

It never hurts to have a back up plan just in case something happens. Goff getting hit by a bus or a 300 plus LB DE. 

I like Goff and hopes he stays around a long time, but the current backup situation isn't great and I'm not a fan of band-aids (see Washington)

If there is a guy they like available in the first round grab him. I'm not completely sold on Richardson, but I'm sure a couple years as a backup is better than Sudfeld or Blough

I agree with being open to taking Richardson, but I don't think the argument for doing so lies in the backup situation. Really I don't think that plays into the analysis at all. You can find capable backups, likely better than Sudfeld, all over the open market in free agency. Their mistake in that department was believing one of Boyle or Blough could be competent enough to not lose the job in the preseason, and they're lucky that Goff didn't get hurt, because the mistake probably would have burned them. If you're playing a backup in year two or three of a rebuild though, you're likely going to have a bad time anyway. It's not until you turn into the offensive machine that the Patriots of yesteryear were, or the 49ers of today are, that you can plug-and-play a semi-competent QB like Matt Cassel or Brock Purdy and just keep on rolling like nothing changed.

If they drafted Richardson, I wouldn't be all that surprised to actually see them still pickup a veteran backup QB on a one-year deal, like Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minshew, or Andy Dalton, and have Richardson start the year as QB3, not even dressing for a number of games. It's not worth stunting his development and forcing him to play before he's ready, especially when he's likely not going to perform better than any other backup QB anyway.

[CMRivdogs]

TBH in my fantasy world I'd like to see them go after someone like Heinicke depending on what Washington does. (I see them rolling the dice with Howell to start the season). I think he would fit perfectly into the season.

I'll go with conventional wisdom and think they'll draft to try to improve the defense with their first two picks. Possibly take a chance on a developmental QB in the 4th round. (Tanner McKee anyone???)

[KL2]

24 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Then sign a veteran backup. Absolutely weird to draft a 1st round QB as a back up to a 28 year old QB who has only missed 3 games due to injury during 6 years. What makes one even think that Richardson, or any other rookie, is going to just come off the bench and keep the team afloat? It's weird there wasn't this much discussion about drafting a backup QB in the 1st round when Stafford was 28. 

https://www.mlive.com/lions/2017/04/detroit_lions_2017_draft_previ.html

But it was proably beacuse the lions took staffod in the draft didn't trade for him, gave him a massive deal, and he had a better  completition percentage and a better QBR along with leading his team to the playoffs, than Goff in their 28 year old sesons.

[Motown Bombers]

12 minutes ago, KL2 said:

https://www.mlive.com/lions/2017/04/detroit_lions_2017_draft_previ.html

But it was proably beacuse the lions took staffod in the draft didn't trade for him, gave him a massive deal, and he had a better  completition percentage and a better QBR along with leading his team to the playoffs, than Goff in their 28 year old sesons.

Stafford's completion percentage was only 0.2% better and he threw more interceptions and fewer TDs and had comparable career numbers up until that point including a significantly worse completion percentage and had multiple separated shoulders. 

I'm also surprised that article wasn't written by Birkett. 

BTW, Stafford hadn't signed his massive deal yet. It even says that in the article you linked. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[RandyMarsh]

I think another reason people are bringing up qb this draft despite having Goff is the fact that we have that extra 1st rounder. I feel some folks treat that as almost found money so why not use it on a lottery ticket qb?

Not saying I agree with that logic but I think there's merit to it, like if we only had 1st this year I think people would basically just be talking players that fill immediate needs but since we have that extra one we can take an immediate need with 1 of them and the other use as sorta a luxury pick. 

[Motown Bombers]

Here's bad Goff post Super Bowl excluding this past season:

Here's post 2011 and pre Jim Bob Cooter Stafford:

We already know 28 year old Stafford and Goff when they got new coordinators and turned their careers around. Thankfully the Lions didn't give up on Stafford and draft a backup QB in the 1st round and he continued to develop into a franchise QB who netted the team a solid foundation to build on. 

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I think another reason people are bringing up qb this draft despite having Goff is the fact that we have that extra 1st rounder. I feel some folks treat that as almost found money so why not use it on a lottery ticket qb?

Not saying I agree with that logic but I think there's merit to it, like if we only had 1st this year I think people would basically just be talking players that fill immediate needs but since we have that extra one we can take an immediate need with 1 of them and the other use as sorta a luxury pick. 

I see a lot of people treating it that way but for almost half the season they had a historically bad defense. They should see it as a blessing the Rams blew this year and gave them a good opportunity to improve the defense. 

[Motown Bombers]

Here's Stafford in 2015 before Jim Bob Cooter:

Here he is after Cooter:

I don't know how Lombardi got a job again over Jim Bob Cooter but you can trace Stafford's career success directly to Jim Bob Cooter. Is Ben Johnson Goff's Cooter(giggity)? Did people say Cooter was responsible for Stafford's success?