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2023 NFL Draft Thread


Mr.TaterSalad

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2016:

round 1: the greatest qb in world history since last year jared goff, carson wentz, paxton lynch (ha ha elway).

outside round 1: christian hackenberg, jacoby brisset, cody kessler, CONNOR COOK, dak prescott, cardale jones, kevin hogan, nate sudfeld, jake rudock, brandon allen, jeff driskell, brandon dougherty.

a tie maybe?  prescott has been inconsistent and wentz/goff have both had good and bad years.  but dak plays for the cowgirls so he gets more accolades.  considering 90% of "outside round 1" is terrible, i'll shade it to round 1.

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2018:

round 1: baker mayfield (lol browns), san darnold (jets drafted hackenburg and now darnold), josh allen, josh rosen, lamar jackson.

outside round 1: mason rudolph, kyle lauletta, mike white, luke falk, tanner lee, danny etling, alex mcgough, logan whiteside.

round 1 in a landslide.

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2019:

round 1: kyler murray, daniel jones, dwayne haskins

outside round 1: drew lock (lol elway), will grier, ryan finley, jaret stidham, easton stick, clayton thorson, gardner minshew, trace mcsorley.

round 1.  as an aside, i cant believe there is a human being named easton stick.  more troubling is that this is the first time i am ever hearing about a human being named easton stick.

were his parents really into hockey?

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2020:

round 1: joe burrow, tua, justin herbert, jordan love.

outside round 1: jalen hurts, jacob eason, james morgan, jake fromm, jake luton, cole mcdonald, ben dinucci, tommy stevens, nate stanley.

round 1 wins but hurts is a good round 2 get.

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i think round 1 has a higher hit rate for qbs.  that's really to be expected and should be for any position.

however, i imagine the hit rate for other positions is better outside round 1 (like guard, or linebacker) than qb.  but i dont know that.

there are so many misses at qb outside round 1 that its really hard to justify for me.  round 2 is ok-ish.  round 3 has dak and wilson in a decade of drafts.  round 4 has cousins.  and that's really it.

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15 minutes ago, buddha said:

2017:

round 1: MITCH!, some guy named patrick, deshaun watson, 

outside round 1: no one named patrick.

round 1 wins.

This is pointless when I already posted the percentages. You can do this for almost every position and get similar results. Are there more guys at other positions that have made it? Sure but they are also drafted far more but the overall percentages aren't very different. No matter the position you have a high rate of busting. Really only Olinemen and TEs are relatively safe picks in the middle to late rounds by percentages. 

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1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

This is pointless when I already posted the percentages. You can do this for almost every position and get similar results. Are there more guys at other positions that have made it? Sure but they are also drafted far more but the overall percentages aren't very different. No matter the position you have a high rate of busting. Really only OTs and TEs are relatively safe picks in the middle to late rounds by percentages. 

pointless!  come on randy, live a little!  🙂

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4 minutes ago, buddha said:

pointless!  come on randy, live a little!  🙂

Definitely isn't a hill I'm worth dying on considering up until about 2 hours I was totally in yours, KL2 and most other people's camps about it being a waste of pick but just seeing how low the hit rate was for all players kinda made me reconsider the stance. I've now gone from thinking it was a wasted pick to being Ok with it under the right circumstances.

For example taking Drew Stanton in the 2nd round when we had so many other glaring holes was not the right circumstance but if you're a team that has little holes and/or have a lot of draft capital it may turn out alright swinging for the fences. 

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1 hour ago, buddha said:

as an aside, i cant believe there is a human being named easton stick.  more troubling is that this is the first time i am ever hearing about a human being named easton stick.

were his parents really into hockey?

For a long time I thought Tiger Woods was a brand of golf clubs. 

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Definitely isn't a hill I'm worth dying on considering up until about 2 hours I was totally in yours, KL2 and most other people's camps about it being a waste of pick but just seeing how low the hit rate was for all players kinda made me reconsider the stance. I've now gone from thinking it was a wasted pick to being Ok with it under the right circumstances.

For example taking Drew Stanton in the 2nd round when we had so many other glaring holes was not the right circumstance but if you're a team that has little holes and/or have a lot of draft capital it may turn out alright swinging for the fences. 

I'm more of a mind that if you have a sharp GM/ Scouts/ and I guess QB & other coaches, too... That they are not going to select a QB outside of round 1 unless they are specifically looking for a backup, or if they feel the league is sleeping and is totally missing on a QB. They're going to recognize that almost all QB's outside of round 1 aren't worth much, and should draft accordingly. I would just have no idea if Brees and/ or Hurts and/or Wilson were selected based on luck, or superb scouting, or bad reads by the rest of the league... or some combination.

I think Brady and Montana and similar is more luck than exceptional scouting... otherwise they'd be picked many many rounds earlier...

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Speaking of hand size I often wonder if how they measure is the best method to do so in terms of how it effects your grip on a football. IDK I just wonder cause measuring the way they do from tip of your thumb to pinky I have a hand size of just under 10 inches. Going by their measurements if I was a qb I'd be fine but back when I played football I'd have trouble holding to the ball on pump fakes due to my relatively shorter fingers. So my hand size was mainly due to having a wider palm but I don't know if that is that beneficial without also having longer fingers to go with it. 

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12 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Doug Flutie height.

He's going to drop and Anthony Richardson is going to rise...

Damn...

I didn't realize Kyler Murray is exactly the same size at 5' 10" and 205 #'s. And went 1-1.

I'll take back what I said. I guess smallish QB's are now in. If they have the "IT" factor that is.

So... Bryce Young & Richardson now going 1 and 2. Stroud in the top 5, I believe... maybe? Should be? And Levis the open question mark as to exactly where he goes...

Things are looking up for (A) A premium defensive player dropping to #6. (B) A potential trade down with the Cardinals. Or (C) What Would Holmes Do? Draft Richardson? Robinson? Best D'Lineman? Best CB? Trade up/ trade down?

Seems like every single potential option is on the menu for pick #6 this draft... methinks.

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The size may be the same but the skills are still different.  Kyler was/is a speed burner with electric moves.  An uncanny ability to use his feet to avoid big contact.  That is not Bryce Young.  I’m not sure that he’ll even run a 40 at his workout.  I’d guess he’s 4.55 or 4.6.   He doesn’t run a lot and is very much a pocket passer.   I’ve always thought he was too small and a lesser version of Tua.  

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I am not against the Lions using the 6th pick to take a QB if they fall in love with the potential of one of the QBs. If it were me I’m rolling with Goff next year so if I’m taking QB I’m taking the one with highest ceiling and don’t worry about the bust potential. 

IMO my order would be 

1a- Richardson

1b- Levis

2- Stroud 

3- Young 

Young has the lowest ceiling imo and I don’t like short QBs. Stroud is the best QB to me but I believe him to be the most mentally soft. I also don’t like Alabama or OSU QBs as they had a silver spoon given to them all college. Richardson and Levis have size, arm strength and athletic ability. If you believe you can coach them up I think their ceiling is extremely high. If they bomb out you still had another 1st rounder in a deep draft in your position of need. 

 

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10 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm locked in on Hendon Hooker in the 2nd round...

I’m not interested in him personally but what I do find interesting is where he could go.  
 

I could see him anywhere from late round 1 all the way down to round 4.   So much uncertainty on him and not sure we will find out until draft day.  

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49 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I’m not interested in him personally but what I do find interesting is where he could go.  
 

I could see him anywhere from late round 1 all the way down to round 4.   So much uncertainty on him and not sure we will find out until draft day.  

I definitely wouldn't rule out the Saints taking him at #29. Wouldn't be an ideal landing spot for Hooker, but the Saints really need a QB and probably don't have the resources to move up far enough for one of the top four.

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Just now, MichiganCardinal said:

I definitely wouldn't rule out the Saints taking him at #29. Wouldn't be an ideal landing spot for Hooker, but the Saints really need a QB and probably don't have the resources to move up far enough for one of the top four.

That extra year of control is huge and especially if you have a developmental QB.  Sounds crazy to say but I would be more surprised to see him go round 2 than in late round 1.  

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Minnesota would be a good opportunity for Hooker. Cousins is going to be 35 at the start of the season and entering the last year of his contract. The Vikings don't have a 2nd round pick and had a bad defense so not sure if they want to draft a QB who won't even be available for most of this year.

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