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2023 NFL Draft Thread


Mr.TaterSalad

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15 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Justin Fields was sitting there for them to draft and they leapt out of their chairs for Sewell and now they are going to take a worse prospect at QB after Goff is much better than he was in 2020?

I don’t think the Lions will draft a QB in the 1st round this year, but I also don’t think that this is indicative of that. This team is vastly different than the one Holmes took over in 2020.

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27 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The offense was 5th in the league and Goff was top 10 and a Pro Bowler. Meanwhile the defense ranked 28th and for a stretch was worst in NFL history but sure we're in a situation where we can draft a QB. 

Yes, Goff was very good in 2022. No question. Can you assure me that:
1. Goff will be as good (or nearly as good) in 2023?
2. Goff will not ask for a very large extension after 2023?
3. Goff will not have an career ending injury?
I'd say probably yes to 1, maybe yes to 2, and probably no to 3.  But I can't assure that and I doubt Brad Holmes can either.  So it at least makes sense to *think* about the QB position.

Yes, the defense was very bad last year, particularly in the secondary... and guess what: They've done a LOT in FA to work on that.

So yes, we're in a 3-0 count, no outs, runner on third base.  We're in a position where we could swing for the fences if we see what looks like a fast ball coming down the middle.

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I would also add that Quinn was in his 1st year as GM when Goff was drafted and when Stafford signed his contract. They were coming off a 9 win season just like they are now so there was faith in the GM at the time. Stafford's contract was running out. He had two years left when Goff was drafted. Same as Goff has now. Stafford was the same age as Goff is now when Goff was drafted. Stafford was similarly coming off a good rebound season after a few sub par seasons. 

You got a few things wrong there... 

2015 Lions season: 7-9
2016, Jan: Quinn hired
2016, April: Goff drafted
2016 Lions season: 9-7

In the 2016 draft Quinn was brand new, so this was his first draft and the Lions were 7-9. Their draft pick was at 16.  So, not coming off a great year, not with a GM who had a track record, not with a high draft pick, not with a second draft pick in the first round, not with a feeling that they are front runners for the division BEFORE the draft. So no... going into the 2016 draft the Lions aren't anything like the Lions going into the 2023 draft.

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36 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Justin Fields was sitting there for them to draft and they leapt out of their chairs for Sewell and now they are going to take a worse prospect at QB after Goff is much better than he was in 2020?

Again, the situation was different then. Worse team, no second 1st round pick. New front office, new coaching staff.

Not a situation where you swing for the fences.

Disclaimer just to make it super duper abundantly clear... using my other analogy: Right now it's 3-0 count, runner on 3rd, no outs... IF it's a fast ball down the middle, swing away.  If it's a slider outside and low, then don't swing away.

 

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6 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Yes, Goff was very good in 2022. No question. Can you assure me that:
1. Goff will be as good (or nearly as good) in 2023?
2. Goff will not ask for a very large extension after 2023?
3. Goff will not have an career ending injury?
I'd say probably yes to 1, maybe yes to 2, and probably no to 3.  But I can't assure that and I doubt Brad Holmes can either.  So it at least makes sense to *think* about the QB position.

Yes, the defense was very bad last year, particularly in the secondary... and guess what: They've done a LOT in FA to work on that.

So yes, we're in a 3-0 count, no outs, runner on third base.  We're in a position where we could swing for the fences if we see what looks like a fast ball coming down the middle.

You got a few things wrong there... 

2015 Lions season: 7-9
2016, Jan: Quinn hired
2016, April: Goff drafted
2016 Lions season: 9-7

In the 2016 draft Quinn was brand new, so this was his first draft and the Lions were 7-9. Their draft pick was at 16.  So, not coming off a great year, not with a GM who had a track record, not with a high draft pick, not with a second draft pick in the first round, not with a feeling that they are front runners for the division BEFORE the draft. So no... going into the 2016 draft the Lions aren't anything like the Lions going into the 2023 draft.

Can you assure me that a rookie QB will be nearly as good as Goff in 2022? Can you assure me that in four years if the rookie is as good as Goff he will not ask for a very large contract? Can you assure me that a rookie will not have a career ending injury? What I can say is that Goff has played at a high level like this over multiple seasons in the NFL on very good offenses that went deep in the playoffs. I can also say that Goff has been very durable throughout his career missing minimal time due to injury. These assurance are just silly. There's a lot more risk moving from a known commodity like Goff to a rookie. 

I never said anything about the 2015 season. I said Stafford was signed coming off a 9 win season. Your logic makes no sense. Because the Lions weren't stacked with picks and Quinn was new (Holmes only has one more year of experience) that the Lions should just say fuck it and give Stafford the largest contract ever. The Rams didn't have two first round picks when they traded for Goff. 

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1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Can you assure me that a rookie QB will be nearly as good as Goff in 2022? Can you assure me that in four years if the rookie is as good as Goff he will not ask for a very large contract? Can you assure me that a rookie will not have a career ending injury? 

No, no, and no. Based on what I see... what QBs are in this draft... I wouldn't do it.  But I also know that I don't know what Holmes knows. From where I'm sitting everything looks like a change up outside... but I also know that I'm sitting in the nose bleed section.  Holmes is in the batters box. He better key his eye out for a fast ball down the middle. IF he see it, he should swing away.

The assurances I asked for is essentially saying: Can you guarantee that next pitch will be a ball in the 3-0 count will be a ball?  If see, then Holmes shouldn't even think about swinging.  If you can't guarantee that it will be a ball... then he better be ready to swing, just in case.
 

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I  never said anything about the 2015 season. I said Stafford was signed coming off a 9 win season. Your logic makes no sense. Because the Lions weren't stacked with picks and Quinn was new (Holmes only has one more year of experience) that the Lions should just say fuck it and give Stafford the largest contract ever. The Rams didn't have two first round picks when they traded for Goff. 

No, you didn't.  You talked about Goff getting drafted in 2016 and said that the Lions were in a similar situation because in 2016 they came off a 9 win season except Goff was drafted before the 2016 season, not after.

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2 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

No, no, and no. Based on what I see... what QBs are in this draft... I wouldn't do it.  But I also know that I don't know what Holmes knows. From where I'm sitting everything looks like a change up outside... but I also know that I'm sitting in the nose bleed section.  Holmes is in the batters box. He better key his eye out for a fast ball down the middle. IF he see it, he should swing away.

The assurances I asked for is essentially saying: Can you guarantee that next pitch will be a ball in the 3-0 count will be a ball?  If see, then Holmes shouldn't even think about swinging.  If you can't guarantee that it will be a ball... then he better be ready to swing, just in case.
 

No, you didn't.  You talked about Goff getting drafted in 2016 and said that the Lions were in a similar situation because in 2016 they came off a 9 win season except Goff was drafted before the 2016 season, not after.

Your baseball analogy makes no sense. Why is hitting a HR on a 3-0 count the equivalent of drafting a QB? Why not swing for a HR in Bijan Robinson?

I was talking about when they drafted and then when they signed Stafford which was 2017. 

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8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

We can only draft QBs now if we have multiple 1st round picks. 

Honestly, I'm getting tired of you taking one thing I said and then applying that one piece as if it's a universal rule I'm advocating.  I never said we can only draft if we have multiple 1sts.  Having multiple 1st rounds this year is ONE reason that the Lions could consider taking a shot IF there's a guy at 6 that they see having a real shot of being a franchise type player.  

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37 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Your baseball analogy makes no sense. Why is hitting a HR on a 3-0 count the equivalent of drafting a QB? Why not swing for a HR in Bijan Robinson?

Yeah, they absolutely could hit a HR with Bijan. I'm not saying that they can only get that with a QB.  I'm saying that IF they think the QB is the HR, then they could, and probably should, take him in the current situation they are in.
 

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I was talking about when they drafted and then when they signed Stafford which was 2017. 

And I was saying that what you said was not factually correct:
"I would also add that Quinn was in his 1st year as GM when Goff was drafted and when Stafford signed his contract. They were coming off a 9 win season just like they are now so there was faith in the GM at the time."
When Goff was drafted (April of 2016), Quinn had no history of drafting as the GM.  He'd been on the job for less than 4 months.  The Lions were also coming off a 7-9 season when Goff was drafted.

If you're talking about 2017 (January thru to the draft), then Goff wasn't available then.  I don't know what QBs were available in 2017 so I don't know if I'd advocate for drafting one then IF the Lions where in the same situations then that they are now (which they weren't).

Here's the thing: I think the majority of us are looking at the situation and saying: "Ya know what... the stars are sorta aligned right now... if the right guy is there then Holmes should grab him, even if he's a QB.  I may not see any of the QBs as the right guy, but I'm also not the Lions GM with access to the information that he has."

Meanwhile I get the feeling that you are saying: "There's absolutely no situation in which we should draft a QB.  Just none.  Even thinking about it is stupid.  Don't touch a QB no matter what.  None of the high level guys will be as good as Goff and none of the low level guys will pan out so it isn't worth even considering."

To go back to my silly baseball analogy: Man on third, no outs, 3-0 count. I'm saying: "You might get a good pitch, so be ready to swing."  It feels like you're saying: "There is no chance you'll get a strike. None. Do not swing, do not even think about it."

If I'm misunderstanding your position, please correct me.

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8 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Yeah, they absolutely could hit a HR with Bijan. I'm not saying that they can only get that with a QB.  I'm saying that IF they think the QB is the HR, then they could, and probably should, take him in the current situation they are in.
 

And I was saying that what you said was not factually correct:
"I would also add that Quinn was in his 1st year as GM when Goff was drafted and when Stafford signed his contract. They were coming off a 9 win season just like they are now so there was faith in the GM at the time."
When Goff was drafted (April of 2016), Quinn had no history of drafting as the GM.  He'd been on the job for less than 4 months.  The Lions were also coming off a 7-9 season when Goff was drafted.

If you're talking about 2017 (January thru to the draft), then Goff wasn't available then.  I don't know what QBs were available in 2017 so I don't know if I'd advocate for drafting one then IF the Lions where in the same situations then that they are now (which they weren't).

Here's the thing: I think the majority of us are looking at the situation and saying: "Ya know what... the stars are sorta aligned right now... if the right guy is there then Holmes should grab him, even if he's a QB.  I may not see any of the QBs as the right guy, but I'm also not the Lions GM with access to the information that he has."

Meanwhile I get the feeling that you are saying: "There's absolutely no situation in which we should draft a QB.  Just none.  Even thinking about it is stupid.  Don't touch a QB no matter what.  None of the high level guys will be as good as Goff and none of the low level guys will pan out so it isn't worth even considering."

To go back to my silly baseball analogy: Man on third, no outs, 3-0 count. I'm saying: "You might get a good pitch, so be ready to swing."  It feels like you're saying: "There is no chance you'll get a strike. None. Do not swing, do not even think about it."

If I'm misunderstanding your position, please correct me.

of course that's what most of us are saying.  most of us are being quite reasonable about this.  some think they might draft a qb, some dont want us to.  in fact, i dont think anyone is advocating for it.  all im saying is that there are reasons to do it, even if i dont think they will and that its more likely that they wont.

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The stars are aligned to draft the 4th or 5th best QB available. When you have a good QB, which I think Goff falls into that category, you hold onto them. I had the same opinion with Stafford. Like Brad Holmes said, it's a lot easier to get worse at QB. The team isn't at a point where you can just make luxury picks. They are a 9 win team and ascending. I see taking a QB is the same as prime Cabrera looking at a fastball down the middle for strike one. The QB isn't going to do anything for you in year one and you take a massive risk that he won't be worse than Goff. 

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

The stars are aligned to draft the 4th or 5th best QB available.

I tend to agree.  Based on what I know I wouldn't draft a QB at 6.  But again I admit I don't know all. IF Holmes sees a franchise QB in someone available, then I'll understand if they take a shot.

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Y'all are over thinking this. They have no need to draft a quarterback. If one is the highest rated player on their board when their turn comes up, then take him. If some other position is rated higher and helps the team more, then take him. Only trade up if an individual has so much more value than the other available pool of players to make it worthwhile.

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10 hours ago, Longgone said:

Y'all are over thinking this. They have no need to draft a quarterback. If one is the highest rated player on their board when their turn comes up, then take him. If some other position is rated higher and helps the team more, then take him. Only trade up if an individual has so much more value than the other available pool of players to make it worthwhile.

Yup,I personally think Anderson is that guy which is why Im an advocate of trading up if the cost is within reason but if Brad doesnt see him or anybody else as a tier above who we'd get at 6 then of course you just stand pat.

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