mtutiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Not sure where if Kevin is expecting the present voters from the Dems or the Taliban 20, because he'd need some from one or both groups given that Jeffries keeps winning pluralities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 25 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Not sure where if Kevin is expecting the present voters from the Dems or the Taliban 20, because he'd need some from one or both groups given that Jeffries keeps winning pluralities. Right - he has to get to 213 first, which he has yet to manage. He must think he made a deal to buy some votes. It sounds like whatever terms he manages to survive under are going to be so emasculating as to not be worth the candle. And of course if the lets the crazies run the show it's hard to see how it could be anything but disasterous for the re-election chances of the rest of the GOP caucus. Edited January 4, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Rep Khana (D) said tonight on CNN that the opening price for Dem's support of any compromise coalition deal is agreement on limitation of nuisance investigative subpeonas against the admin and agreement there will be no shutdowns - debt ceiling etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Maybe his carrot is some bogus investigation they can play with as a toy. It would be something stupid but they can use to fundraise and give the Kirks something to chew on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Again, not sure that the Taliban 20 are operating off the same incentive structure that mainstream pundits think they are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 25 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Again, not sure that the Taliban 20 are operating off the same incentive structure that mainstream pundits think they are There is actually a bit of a parallel to what went on at the beginning of the 117st House and the 'Squad', where they didn't want to support Pelosi and the status quo. The difference is that the Squad didn't have the numbers to be a serious threat to Pelosi's election. But there are centrifugal forces operating at the edges on both sides of the spectrum. That being said, the character of those forces are of a far darker and wilder nature on the right. The other difference is that in 2020, blowing up the House meant you would also undercut your own side's Senate and Executive. The FC knows that won't get anything they want from Biden or the Senate, so blowing up the House doesn't cost them any parts of an agenda they have any real hope of getting. Better for them to either win, or see the Speakership go to a Dem/GOP coalition where they can primary any apostate Repubs in '22 that supported a coalition, and extend their numbers inside their caucus. Edited January 4, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 55 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: There is actually a bit of a parallel to what went on at the beginning of the 117st House and the 'Squad', where they didn't want to support Pelosi and the status quo. The difference is that the Squad didn't have the numbers to be a serious threat to Pelosi's election. But there are centrifugal forces operating at the edges on both sides of the spectrum. That being said, the character of those forces are of a far darker and wilder nature on the right. The other difference is that in 2020, blowing up the House meant you would also undercut your own side's Senate and Executive. The FC knows that won't get anything they want from Biden or the Senate, so blowing up the House doesn't cost them any parts of an agenda they have any real hope of getting. Better for them to either win, or see the Speakership go to a Dem/GOP coalition where they can primary any apostate Repubs in '22 that supported a coalition, and extend their numbers inside their caucus. The one big difference between The Squad and the 20 here is that maybe The Squad are just more pragmatic in general? There was some concern around the time of Pelosi's last Speaker election as well as at various points during the 117th Congress about whether their demands would ultimately kill or impact the ability to govern, but to their credit, when it came time to take a deal, they were generally there and willing to play ball. Whereas I seriously question whether any of the 20 are interested in deal-making in general, not just as it pertains to getting McCarthy across the line but just generally. Edited January 4, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, mtutiger said: The one big difference between The Squad and the 20 here is that maybe The Squad are just more pragmatic in general? There was some concern around the time of Pelosi's last Speaker election as well as at various points during the 117th Congress about whether their demands would ultimately kill or impact the ability to govern, but to their credit, when it came time to take a deal, they were generally there and willing to play ball. Whereas I seriously question whether any of the 20 are interested in deal-making in general, not just as it pertains to getting McCarthy across the line but just generally. yes - I think this is true. The difference is that the Squad's frustration is that they have a program they want to see move forward that they are frustrated more of the party won't support. The FC is coming from a fundamentally nihilist stance. Even ex-GOP members who knew and worked with these people from the inside before they left the fold say their disagreement with them is not over policy but more fundamentally that these people are not interested in governing. Edited January 4, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Right. One is an actual policy. The other is just showmanship and fake investigations. Policy can be negotiated and parceled out bit by bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I still say some GOP middle of the line types should go ahead and vote Jeffries. Make him speaker of the house. This is, of course, with the supposition that they would speak with some Democrats and strike some deals where they can actually legislate on a bipartisan road. What is going on now is just a total meltdown. If McCarthy does end up (eventually… in a few days?) as speaker, this Congress with him as head will only be about ridiculous investigations. There is NO GOP agenda, and hasn’t been one, for a decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 23 minutes ago, smr-nj said: I still say some GOP middle of the line types should go ahead and vote Jeffries. Make him speaker of the house. This is, of course, with the supposition that they would speak with some Democrats and strike some deals where they can actually legislate on a bipartisan road. What is going on now is just a total meltdown. If McCarthy does end up (eventually… in a few days?) as speaker, this Congress with him as head will only be about ridiculous investigations. There is NO GOP agenda, and hasn’t been one, for a decade. I don't think any GOP members will vote for Jeffries, but some Dems might go for a plan involving someone like a Kasich or Upton. But is there any leadership level among GOP middle of the roaders to make it happen? Plans don't spring into life by themselves, someone has to lead them. That piece appears missing. The other factor is that I would estimate the odds of an out of the box solution don't start building unless McCarthy removes himself from the race. As long as he keep up the fight I guess the GOP middle is willing to stick with him. Edited January 4, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 It's simply a game of chicken between the FC and McCarthy. Whoever flinches is wounded. FC doesn't care if nothing goes further. They can blame McCarthy and look like heroes to their voters. They win even if the country loses. If McCarthy or the GOP flinches then the nation knows the FC owns them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, oblong said: It's simply a game of chicken between the FC and McCarthy. Whoever flinches is wounded. FC doesn't care if nothing goes further. They can blame McCarthy and look like heroes to their voters. They win even if the country loses. If McCarthy or the GOP flinches then the nation knows the FC owns them. Isn’t it already obvious that this is true? Can’t wait to see Santos sworn in as head of the Financial Committee, Gym J as Judicial head, …. And MTG as Queen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Kevin now 0-4, Time to move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Everyone knows 5th time is a charm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Meanwhile, in Kentucky... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) Edited January 4, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) Watch the NK's to try and see what they're doing. They swapped from Jordan to Byron Donalds. the count trend is 19 to 20 to ...? 20 so far in the 4th count (plus 1 "present" vote as mtu just posted above...). If they can grow the NK's, even incrementally, that will put pressure on the rest of the Republicans (McCarthy's) to possibly find a consensus Speaker that some Dems may buy into. That's the key to me. What will push a consensus of moderate Dems/ Pubs to seek an alternative? I think that will be based on how far the NK's want to take this... I'm seeing Scalise, Upton, Governor Larry Hogan, ex-Massachusetts-Governor Charlie Baker's names being floated... Edited January 4, 2023 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Meanwhile, in Kentucky... Cocaine mitch is there with him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 This never happened before the covid vax just sayin. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Watch the NK's to try and see what they're doing. They swapped from Jordan to Byron Donalds. the count trend is 19 to 20 to ...? 20 so far in the 4th count. If they can grow the NK's, even incrementally, that will put pressure to possibly find a consensus Speaker that some Dems may buy into. That's my key. What will push a consensus of moderate Dems/ Pubs to seek an alternative? I think that will be based on how far the NK's want to take this... I'm seeing Scalise, Upton, Governor Larry Hogan, ex-Massachusetts-Governor Charlie Baker's names being floated... Scalise is a non-starter as a compromise candidate. Upton or Larry Hogan seem more in the vein of who it would need to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 If someone else prevails does MK stay Majority Leader? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Spartz voting present is interesting... I don't understand what McCarthy's path is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Some of the Insurrection Faction demands Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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