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Posted
  On 1/7/2023 at 4:12 AM, oblong said:

Regarding the sex trafficking and Gaetz.  I have to think if there were hard evidence they would have used it on him. 

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Like they did on Cawthorn.   I actually think they did use it on Gaetz...its just the Panhandle is so faccacta that they voted for him anyway.

Posted

I don't think it's a very long limb to climb out on to predict McCarthy will fall in fairly short order, probably when the 1st debt ceiling vote comes up. The FC will refuse to let the speaker bring it to a vote and that will be the end of McCarthy. At that point, when it's something real on the table and not just a personnel matter, we'll see if a durable majority to govern can emerge from a coalition of the center of the two parties or not. 

Posted
  On 1/7/2023 at 4:52 AM, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think it's a very long limb to climb out on to predict McCarthy will fall in fairly short order, probably when the 1st debt ceiling vote comes up. The FC will refuse to let the speaker bring it to a vote and that will be the end of McCarthy. At that point, when it's something real on the table and not just a personnel matter, we'll see if a durable majority to govern can emerge from a coalition of the center of the two parties or not. 

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He doesn't know where his caucus lies most of the time and seems unable to count votes.

Not a recipe for success

Posted

In terms of the prospects of coalition government, after seeing this process play out, if the Dems had picked up/held a couple more seats (something like 219-216), the prospect would have been a higher probability with the volatility of the GOP Caucus.

222-212 is narrow, but not narrow enough. We will have to see how that changes as McCarthy gets further in and as the debt ceiling approaches whether we see changes in leadership

Posted

debt limit is going to be an absolute shitshow.  I'm sure McCarthy reached out to Dem leadership about getting some votes and or presents.  I am interested in what a deal there would have looked like.  

I saw where someone believed the famous AOC/Gaetz talk was based on an attempt to get some Dems to walk out, making the threshold achievable for McCarthy and i'm assuming giving Gaetz the ability to still symbolically vote against him.

Posted
  On 1/7/2023 at 5:26 AM, mtutiger said:

In terms of the prospects of coalition government, after seeing this process play out, if the Dems had picked up/held a couple more seats (something like 219-216), the prospect would have been a higher probability with the volatility of the GOP Caucus.

222-212 is narrow, but not narrow enough. We will have to see how that changes as McCarthy gets further in and as the debt ceiling approaches whether we see changes in leadership

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I’m sure there are Democrats who would vote for a Republican speaker who is not part of or beholden to the Kookoo Kaukus. Maybe some coalition could form around someone before long. 

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