The 118th United States Congress

[mtutiger]

The usual caveats apply, but the Suozzi race is also looking like a pretty sizeable polling miss as well. Most were expecting low single digits, it may end up pulling in a double digits.

[romad1]

11 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The usual caveats apply, but the Suozzi race is also looking like a pretty sizeable polling miss as well. Most were expecting low single digits, it may end up pulling in a double digits.

RVs are not an effective screen for a special election.  

 

(edit: that was incredibly banal of me).   I think I was saying that what the hell is up with polls that showed this close?

Edited February 14, 2024 by romad1

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

looking like a pretty sizeable polling miss

I'm going to guess It won't matter how poor polling accuracy gets (and I think will just get worse), the media will continue to buy polls and lead with them in their reporting - they don't know how else to do it.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[CMRivdogs]

15 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The usual caveats apply, but the Suozzi race is also looking like a pretty sizeable polling miss as well. Most were expecting low single digits, it may end up pulling in a double digits.

There was a pretty big snow storm on Long Island and surrounding areas. That may have had an impact. I'm also seeing reports that a lot of Democrats voted early by mail, while Republicans tended to wait until Election Day to vote.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Finally!!!

Can we have enough of this Republican **** show?

Have people woken up yet?

Maybe...

Yes.

[Motown Bombers]

Hamasholes going to do their thing. Why don’t these Hamasholes ever protest republicans?

 

[CMRivdogs]

 

[Motown Bombers]

I like how the GOP tried to run on an anti-immigrant platform in the most diverse city in the world. 

[pfife]

lol @ polling

[Motown Bombers]

The Nates have gone off the deep end. Even the pitchbot couldn’t top this. 

[mtutiger]

20 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

There was a pretty big snow storm on Long Island and surrounding areas. That may have had an impact. I'm also seeing reports that a lot of Democrats voted early by mail, while Republicans tended to wait until Election Day to vote.

Turnout ended up around 60-65% of 2022 Midterm turnout in the same district, which is fairly high turnout for a special election... so I'm not buying the snow storm being a huge factor... at full turnout, I just don't think the numbers move enough.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Finally!!!

Can we have enough of this Republican **** show?

Have people woken up yet?

Maybe...

Yes.

things always look pretty static until they are not, right? There are are tipping point issues in US political history. The new deal for the Dems after the depression, the radical realignment of the South after Nixon leading to the Reagan majorities. We keep looking for some tipping point that  will hit the GOP broadly even apart from Trump and it keeps not happening. We will only know it in retrospect - but the combination of the ****-show over immigration and the Russian appeasement are as good a good candidates as any to be that last straws in the public's patience with the GOP.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

If the tide does turn this cycle it's already too late for them to get out of the way. The moderate GOP Reps had their chance to be counted when McCarthy fell but decided to cast their fate with Trump and the crazies.

[mtutiger]

43 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm going to guess It won't matter how poor polling accuracy gets (and I think will just get worse), the media will continue to buy polls and lead with them in their reporting - they don't know how else to do it.

I do want to clarify that it'll be off by less than it looked like previously with more of Nassau being counted.... (more like 3 points, not 5-7 lol)

But still, it does seem like no one considered the possibility that Suozzi could be underestimated either. It's a reminder that, just because in the Trump era it's become gospel that polls only underestimate Republicans, that errors can happen in both directions.

 

Edited February 14, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

 

This district is about 80% white and 20% college educated. It’s not even favorable for Democrats. 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

.... We will only know it in retrospect - but the combination of the ****-show over immigration and the Russian appeasement are as good a good candidates as any to be that last straws in the public's patience with the GOP.

I think it's actually been a slow roll...

But it does seem like it is building... again, slowly.

I think it started with how disgusting Trump was. Jan 6th was the matchstick that lit this... fuse?

Damn long... and slow burning fuse that... probably results in nothing more than a loud firecracker.

The mid-term 2022 elections went against Republicans for the most part.

I think the immigration ****show and the continual boot-licking of Putin are adding to it. The incapability of the Republican Party to actually govern is showing them to be a dysfunctional rabble that does not deserve to be in office.

But I think the loud bang (from that firecracker...) is from Trump appearing to win another nomination (I think HE is the straw. Or at least the most important one. He's toxic beyond all measure and driving hordes of middle to right moderates away from the Republican Party). IMO.

I think right-leaning Indies are leaving the Republicans in droves. No longer interested in dysfunction, no longer interested in their ****shows and other performative garbage, and most definitely not interested in Trump. I think moderate Republicans and right-leaning Indies are looking for the exit, and for what comes next. A 3rd party? A No-Labels party? Trump is the loud bang that is breaking up the Republican Party.

I think I predicted that back in 2016... and every year since... and it's been a slow burn trying to get to this point...

But I think Trump is finally creating a breakup of the current construction of the Republican Party.

I don't know what happens next after the November elections show the unviability/ unelectability/ ungovernability of building a party completely and solely on White Trash Bigotry and Grievances.

Edited February 14, 2024 by 1984Echoes

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

 

Yep.

This.

This is my official position.

[1984Echoes]

34 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

 

A resounding crushing of Republicans in November...

Is just the ticket needed to get that Party to reform itself.

[romad1]

Per Kornacki and others the margins in this election are driven by the category of voter who is hyper vigilant over democracy.   Yet, the other side calls themselves patriots.   Maybe "Citizens" is the better term for the counter-trump voter.

[mtutiger]

I didn't realize it until now, but apparently all of the major ratings agencies (Cook, Sabato, etc.) had NY-3 as a toss-up.

Even factoring in the polls showing a small Suozzi lead, that was a miss as well... should have been Lean D given that he also held significant financial/advertising advantages and from being a former Congressman from the area.

Edited February 14, 2024 by mtutiger