Motown Bombers Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: A resounding crushing of Republicans in November... Is just the ticket needed to get that Party to reform itself. The truth is right here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I've been hearing about the GOP reforming itself for years, since at least the "autopsy" after Obama ruined Romney. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 In some ways, electorally, the conservative media environment is a gift to Democrats. Republicans are so consumed by their own media and righteousness they repeatedly fault the voter rather than themselves for their electoral losses. Because of this, they just do the same thing over and over and over which is move to the right. Combined that with the gerrymandering and grifting..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said: 8 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: A resounding crushing of Republicans in November... Is just the ticket needed to get that Party to reform itself. Unfortunately, once a population starts to go down the road of conspiracy thinking. They interpret defeat as a lack of resolution to their core principles. This is Egypt after Yom Kippor in 1973+ The hardliners viewed the defeat not as a reason to reform and figure out a Jewish state was likely there to stay. The nutters went out and blamed the Sadat government, killed him and became the core of Egyptian Islamic Jihad which (Zawahiri) and later the nucleous of Al Qa`ida. In a scenario where the MAGAs think they can only win through violence...well, its definitely coming. Average GOP voter, isn't thinking this. He's ignorant of Trump's legal troubles and the January 6th conspiracies. He's not told all these things. But, Steve Bannon is on the direct line of leninist revolutionary planning. He knows what he needs to do and he will continue to plot until he is put down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What Romney's loss proved is there was this buried Trumpism in the party that didn't accept him. He was "too establishment" before that became an official term. The populism wing. They would rather let Obama "burn it down" and rise up than let the bankers and insurance and wall street class win. Eventually that group relented with Trump so they could get their tax cuts. There's still people hanging on to hope but I just don't it. They pretend that eventually cooler heads will prevail and we can go back to the 90's with mainstream Republicans like the Good Old Days. it won't happen. Those like Heath Mayo and the Lincoln Project have good intentions but they are blind that it's over. Kevin Freaking McCarthy was too much for the crazies. The GOP is the party of Gaetz and Greene. People like Cruz and Graham saw the writing on the wall and are along for the ride. They had repeated chances to throw Trump overboard but were afraid. There is a perpetual circle jerk between the likes of Tucker and Kirk and Shapiro and that lot that will keep things moving and 40% of the voters will think that's normal because they live in a social media/RW network bubble but as long as the sane people in this country recognize that and keep voting then the republic has a shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I feel happy about last night's results from NY-3 with Tom Suozzi winning with a fairly comfortable margin. I do believe that is good news for Democrats and should be celebrated. However, I just can't get the 2020 US House races out of my head. In 2020 the predictions were that Democrats would hold even or possibly gain seats in the House, instead they lost seats, and in surprising areas, to terrible candidates. Seats like the California 48th district, Iowa's 1st district, South Carolina 1st district (Nancy Mace), Texas 23rd and Texas 24th districts. Nancy Mace is both ****ing dumb and crazy and still managed to pull off a win. What was the final analysis of the Democrats 2020 House losses? Was it a case of Trump ginning up GOP turnout and sinking otherwise winnable races for Dems? What are the chances of that scenario repeating itself this year in House races? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Meh - think the headline implies there is some kind of conclusion in the article to a greater degree than there is. It's actually more of an "on the one hand, on the other hand" kind of thing where he tries out all the possible readings. The best nugget is near the end however: Quote Given the unusual challenge of estimating the likely electorate in a special election compared with a general election, I wouldn’t read anything into that disparity for November. But there are a lot of signs right now that Democrats are excelling among highly engaged voters — including special elections — and I do think this has the potential to pose some challenges for pollsters in the fall. It may also mean, as we wrote last week, that the polls of all registered voters might be underestimating Mr. Biden compared with the likely electorate. Ya think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, pfife said: In some ways, electorally, the conservative media environment is a gift to Democrats. Republicans are so consumed by their own media and righteousness they repeatedly fault the voter rather than themselves for their electoral losses. Because of this, they just do the same thing over and over and over which is move to the right. Combined that with the gerrymandering and grifting..... In a lot of ways, the conservative media environment today is emblematic of the "bubble dwelling" that these same folks accused Clinton voters of living in after the 2016 Presidential Election. It's really a huge risk factor... they really cannot course correct after bad losses, and that's doubly the case with the party leader and soon-to-be Presidential candidate, given what we learned in 2020 with him losing and basically taking the position of "I didn't actually lose, it was stolen"... like, it's impossible to recalibrate when you constantly believe every loss was an election stolen from you. The grifting is gonna be a huge factor this time around... in 2020, Trump / GOP had a pretty sizable financial warchest. That isn't going to happen this time, even factoring out the legal bills that will undoubtedly be underwritten by campaign and PAC funds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 22 minutes ago, oblong said: There's still people hanging on to hope but I just don't it. They pretend that eventually cooler heads will prevail and we can go back to the 90's with mainstream Republicans like the Good Old Days What those people miss is that that GOP's platform had run out of gas. Reagan was all about the overreach of the welfare state and cutting taxes, but history just simply proved him wrong. Low tax, business friendly Reaganite economic policies rebounded hard against the non-college middle class voters that initially thought they were a good idea and without that piece, that old GOP does not have a majority building platform anymore - they and the set of economic policies that built the Reagan majority are defunct. That's the biggest reason why none of those 12 guys on the stage with Trump in '16 had anything to offer that sounded any better than his snake oil. Edited February 14 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I feel happy about last night's results from NY-3 with Tom Suozzi winning with a fairly comfortable margin. I do believe that is good news for Democrats and should be celebrated. However, I just can't get the 2020 US House races out of my head. In 2020 the predictions were that Democrats would hold even or possibly gain seats in the House, instead they lost seats, and in surprising areas, to terrible candidates. Seats like the California 48th district, Iowa's 1st district, South Carolina 1st district (Nancy Mace), Texas 23rd and Texas 24th districts. Nancy Mace is both ****ing dumb and crazy and still managed to pull off a win. What was the final analysis of the Democrats 2020 House losses? Was it a case of Trump ginning up GOP turnout and sinking otherwise winnable races for Dems? What are the chances of that scenario repeating itself this year in House races? I'm not sure that a fully comprehensive analysis has been done, but there's a number of factors that may have been at play.... COVID (and the impact that it had on campaigning style between the two parties), incumbency advantage, voters expecting Biden to win and subsequently voting "R" for Congress to force divided government, etc. Non-response bias was likely a factor in polling as well, although my response there would be there's reason to believe that Biden / Dems may be the ones being underestimated on that front in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: What those people miss is that that GOP's platform had run out of gas. Reagan was all about the overreach of the welfare state and cutting taxes, but history just simply proved him wrong. Low tax, business friendly Reaganite economic policies rebounded hard against the non-college middle class voters that initially thought they were a good idea and without that piece, that old GOP does not have a majority building platform anymore - they and the set of economic policies that built the Reagan majority are defunct. That's the biggest reason why none of those 12 guys on the stage with Trump in '16 had anything to offer that sounded any better than his snake oil. If Establishment Republicans are looking for a home... I don't know where that is... What do moderate Pubs to right of center Indies want? Cutting more taxes for the top 1%? To your point, that doesn't seem to fly. A balanced budget? I could be on board with that. But not on a militant Constitutional Amendment basis, but, more along the lines of a George HW Bush or Clinton 1992 basis. A compromise between left and right that includes tax cuts in certain areas but increases in others, with an overall net increase in (tax) revenues. Spending cuts in certain areas but increases where needed and an overall net decrease in spending... But that's not a powerful platform position. Any Dem or moderate Republican can run on a balanced budget. But with the current Trumpublican Party closed off to moderates, they would need to have more than that. Libertarian? Fiscally conservative but socially liberal? I think that's a good place to be... but not on the Libertarian basis of their militant "strip-the-government-down-to-nothing". And the Party s rife with jokers instead of real politico types. But swap their militant fiscal to moderate balanced budget position and stock it with Christie-Manchin-similar types and it maybe becomes more palatable to moderate Republicans. But is that what they want? What do they want? What platform can they run on? As you've stated... that party has basically run out of ideas... Edited February 14 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Another retirement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: Another retirement Usually a good sign that people in congress expect a bloodbath in the fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 58 minutes ago, romad1 said: Usually a good sign that people in congress expect a bloodbath in the fall. Or are exhausted from the MAGA ****show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 58 minutes ago, romad1 said: Usually a good sign that people in congress expect a bloodbath in the fall. It's possible it's more just due to the fact that, even if they win and / or Trump wins, they don't expect anything productive to happen regardless of how the fall shakes out. Just because of the ascendency of the MTG types in the GOP these days. But generally speaking, a bunch of committee chairs giving up their gigs is usually seen as being a leading indicator of losing a bunch of seats, no doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said: Or are exhausted from the MAGA ****show. Yeah, this is the other possibility for sure. Which may not be mutually exclusive with losing a bunch of seats, just hard to say at the moment. On another note I genuinely am curious to know whether private polling is showing what the public stuff is showing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The problem for moderate Republicans is that there is a good chance they don't make it out of a primary unless they go full MAGA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: The problem for moderate Republicans is that there is a good chance they don't make it out of a primary unless they go full MAGA. In other words: They're homeless. So the next question is: What will become their next home. Because it's not going to be the Trumpublican Party anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, 1984Echoes said: In other words: They're homeless. So the next question is: What will become their next home. Because it's not going to be the Trumpublican Party anymore. We had Reagan Democrats so why not Biden Republicans? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: We had Reagan Democrats so why not Biden Republicans? Too much psychic identity tied up in party affiliation for that generation of the GOP. These people are completely immobile psychologically or they already would have switched. Heck, based on their current politics every one of the guys in the Lincoln project should have just changed sides outright by now, and 40yr ago would have, but they don't have the imagination to envision their lives on the other side so they can't pull the trigger. I find it all so bizarre - I could switch parties in a NY minute if the Dems were to go through a transition anything like the GOP has. Heck, I cast any number of GOP votes - mostly in the the pre-Gingrich days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 44 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: We had Reagan Democrats so why not Biden Republicans? Works for me... They could call themselves "Sane Republicans voting for Democracy". You know... A dying breed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 38 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Too much psychic identity tied up in party affiliation for that generation of the GOP. These people are completely immobile psychologically or they already would have switched. Heck, based on their current politics every one of the guys in the Lincoln project should have just changed sides outright by now, and 40yr ago would have, but they don't have the imagination to envision their lives on the other side so they can't pull the trigger. I find it all so bizarre - I could switch parties in a NY minute if the Dems were to go through a transition anything like the GOP has. Heck, I cast any number of GOP votes - mostly in the the pre-Gingrich days. I think being an outsider is more lucrative. Thinking of people like Pat Caddell and **** Morris and Harold Ford. Just switch and you get swallowed up. But giving the impression of a unique voice can be valuable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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