2023 NBA Draft Prelude

[Deleterious]

The Pelicans

 

[Deleterious]

 

[Betrayer]

There's way too much talk of the Pistons taking Jarace Walker. I'd take Hendricks, Whitmore, either Thompson, and probably a few others over him.

-Not a good three point shooter - less than 35% even though most were assisted (so, they weren't difficult pull-ups)
-Poor free throw shooter - 67%, and history says those guys don't become good shooters
-Afraid of contact in the lane and not a good finisher unless he's open for a dunk
-Terrible in the mid-range (40%) even though he took the majority (41%) of his shots from there
---30% on pull up 2s
---34% on floaters
-Less switchable than Hendricks due to weaker lateral speed
-Weaker shot blocker than Hendricks
-Nothing special about his handle or creation
-He's an undersized 5 playing the 4 with no real scoring skills (don't we have one of those already?)
 

On the plus side:
-He's a good defender
-He's a good passer 

I honestly wonder how this kid is even being talked about before pick #10, let alone the top 5.

Any Walker stans in here want to talk me off the ledge I'll be on when they pick this kid?

[gehringer_2]

35 minutes ago, Betrayer said:

-Poor free throw shooter - 67%, and history says those guys don't become good shooters

you wouldn't think.

But you can talk yourself into projecting almost anything you want on a 19 yr old. Sometimes you will be right.

[RandyMarsh]

I'm starting to come around to Whitmore, if I knew they could get him to play an MPJ type role  Id be more into him but part of me just fears that he could be a ball stopper that doesnt play to his role or strengths.

I guess if they were to take him Id just have to trust Monty that he will get him to play the way the way the Pistons need him to play. 

[Deleterious]

Pretty much the type of post Betrayer was talking about in the offseason thread.

 

[RandyMarsh]

I think it's a matter of time before one or both of the Thompson twins will be getting some fluff pieces like that. 

[casimir]

19 hours ago, Betrayer said:

There's way too much talk of the Pistons taking Jarace Walker. I'd take Hendricks, Whitmore, either Thompson, and probably a few others over him.

-Not a good three point shooter - less than 35% even though most were assisted (so, they weren't difficult pull-ups)
-Poor free throw shooter - 67%, and history says those guys don't become good shooters
-Afraid of contact in the lane and not a good finisher unless he's open for a dunk
-Terrible in the mid-range (40%) even though he took the majority (41%) of his shots from there
---30% on pull up 2s
---34% on floaters
-Less switchable than Hendricks due to weaker lateral speed
-Weaker shot blocker than Hendricks
-Nothing special about his handle or creation
-He's an undersized 5 playing the 4 with no real scoring skills (don't we have one of those already?)
 

On the plus side:
-He's a good defender
-He's a good passer 

I honestly wonder how this kid is even being talked about before pick #10, let alone the top 5.

Any Walker stans in here want to talk me off the ledge I'll be on when they pick this kid?

I questioned Walker's shooting ratios before.  Seems to me to be a pass at 5.

[RandyMarsh]

Haven't dove into it yet but Vecenie's draft guide is now up on The Athletic. 

[buddha]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Haven't dove into it yet but Vecenie's draft guide is now up on The Athletic. 

he has whitmore above miller.  

tiers superstar: 

vic

tier 1: scoot

tier 2 whitmore, miller, amen.

tier 3: walker, hendricks, black, ausar.

[NYLion]

23 hours ago, Betrayer said:

There's way too much talk of the Pistons taking Jarace Walker. I'd take Hendricks, Whitmore, either Thompson, and probably a few others over him.

-Not a good three point shooter - less than 35% even though most were assisted (so, they weren't difficult pull-ups)
-Poor free throw shooter - 67%, and history says those guys don't become good shooters
-Afraid of contact in the lane and not a good finisher unless he's open for a dunk
-Terrible in the mid-range (40%) even though he took the majority (41%) of his shots from there
---30% on pull up 2s
---34% on floaters
-Less switchable than Hendricks due to weaker lateral speed
-Weaker shot blocker than Hendricks
-Nothing special about his handle or creation
-He's an undersized 5 playing the 4 with no real scoring skills (don't we have one of those already?)
 

On the plus side:
-He's a good defender
-He's a good passer 

I honestly wonder how this kid is even being talked about before pick #10, let alone the top 5.

Any Walker stans in here want to talk me off the ledge I'll be on when they pick this kid?

Athletic Versatile defender (his lateral movement is fine, not great but good enough to play perimeter defense), shot has good form so I think he'll be a solid 3 point shooter, has playmaking skills.  His biggest issue is that he's not a good shot creator and is more of a 4 than a 3 which isn't a big need for the Pistons. In terms of skillset, I think he's a better fit for the Pistons than Whitmore for example. The free throw shooting is a concern but I like his form so I think it's something that can be corrected.

I'll pose the same question to you about Whitmore. Talk me off the ledge...

This is what I see...

Inconsistent shooter, poor ballhandler because his hands are too small, not great measurables, not much of a passer, tends to make poor decisions with the ball

The positives I see are his explosive athleticism and ability to cut off ball and finish at the rim. He's also really young so there's a lot of growth potential but what I see now is a player that is a project full of potential but a player that will be frustrating as hell to watch. Not making an exact comparison but some of my frustrations with Bey I see in this kid with that bully ball mentality with a propensity for the ball to stick when he gets it and being turnover prone to boot. I'll say that he has more high end potential than Walker but I think Walker fits better in the framework of a ball movement offense on a team that is led by playmaking guards.

When I see Whitmore play, I see a guy that plays with a star mentality but without the refined skills at this point to play like a star. I don't see the fit unless he changes his style. I actually see Hendricks as the best fit of all these 2nd tier guys but he doesn't appear to be on the Pistons radar if the rumors are to be believed.

Edited June 14, 2023 by NYLion

[buddha]

vecinie on whitmore:

whitmore is a pure upside play. If you buy into the flashes he showed at Villanova and think he has potential to be a 25-point-
per-game scorer, you should take him in the top five, passing and decision-making be damned. His athletic upside is elite 
even by NBA standards. I think he’s going to put even the best athletes in the world behind the eight ball when it comes to his 
explosiveness and power combination. He’ll excel in transition, and the opened-up driving lanes of the NBA court should favor 
him even more when he has better shooters and floor spacers around him. Look at the way the Pacers’ Bennedict Mathurin 
thrived in that regard this past season. Ultimately, I do tend to fall into this camp when it comes to Whitmore. If I’m drafting in 
the top five, I am doing so to find the player who can make a real difference for me moving up the standings. If Whitmore hits, he 
can be that. But the way he plays currently is a real flaw, and you’ll need to do some real work to fix that over the course of the 
next couple of seasons. I’m a buyer on the talent because of the way he can collapse defenses. But it’s all on Whitmore to decide 
that he wants to be a part of winning basketball teams that move the ball and play unselfishly.

[buddha]

vecinie on walker:

Walker is a fascinating player. It’s easy to imagine his role as a havoc-inducing defensive four who blocks shots on the weak 
side and plays switchable defense. That especially all comes together in an interesting package of skills if Walker becomes a 
consistent shooter, given his playmaking ability as a passer. But if the shooting isn’t there, it does become a bit trickier to make 
him work as a four given that he’s also not all that impactful as a half-court driver and finisher right now. He might end up being 
more of a small-ball, switchy big man, which is relatively OK, but it probably does limit his upside a touch given that he’s not 
elite at finishing possessions as a rebounder, and he isn’t quite as elite as a primary rim protector. There are a few more tweener 
risks with Walker than what I think has been displayed. Still, if it works, and Walker becomes capable as a switchable four who 
can hit shots, his upside as a winning player is enormous due to how he processes the game so quickly as a passer. I don’t see 
Walker as an All-Star, but he might be someone who helps a winning team in a big way, just as he did with Houston.

[buddha]

hendricks:

MMARY
I love Hendricks going to a team that is well-situated in terms of shot creation and thus could allow him to come along more 
slowly in that respect. He’s a ways off from being able to impact the game as a ballhandler or creator, but Hendricks possesses 
the kind of 3-and-D game that could be a real difference-maker to teams that need those skills. And almost every team with an 
established hierarchy of stars needs those skills. Hendricks is 6-foot-9 in shoes, he’s long and switchable, and he defends the 
rim well from the weak side. He has potential to be an awesome pick-and-roll defender due to his versatility, and his length will 
take up a larger portion of the court than the normal run-of-the-mill wing prospect. The number of players 6-foot-9 or taller who 
enter the league as plus defenders and plus shooters is extremely minimal. It’s Jabari Smith Jr., Franz Wagner, Trey Murphy III 
and Jaren Jackson Jr. since 2018. That’s why Hendricks is going to hear his name called in the lottery. It’s hard to see how this 
skill set fails, even with his faults. He does the three most important things a role player in the NBA can do: He shoots it well off 
the catch, he defends well in space and he plays well within help defensive concepts. Throw in that he’s still a teenager with real 
upside, and you shouldn’t be surprised if he hears his name called in the top 10.

[RandyMarsh]

Givony has his latest mock out and he still has us taking Whitmore. The thing that caught my though was this closing statement "Some trade scenarios could be in play for the Pistons with the No. 31 pick as well, for example, packaging Bojan Bogdanovic for Tim Hardaway Jr. and the No. 10 pick, sources tell ESPN."

Id be down for that since we then could take my boy **** at 10!

[Betrayer]

1 hour ago, NYLion said:

Athletic Versatile defender (his lateral movement is fine, not great but good enough to play perimeter defense), shot has good form so I think he'll be a solid 3 point shooter, has playmaking skills.  His biggest issue is that he's not a good shot creator and is more of a 4 than a 3 which isn't a big need for the Pistons. In terms of skillset, I think he's a better fit for the Pistons than Whitmore for example. The free throw shooting is a concern but I like his form so I think it's something that can be corrected.

I'll pose the same question to you about Whitmore. Talk me off the ledge...

This is what I see...

Inconsistent shooter, poor ballhandler because his hands are too small, not great measurables, not much of a passer, tends to make poor decisions with the ball

The positives I see are his explosive athleticism and ability to cut off ball and finish at the rim. He's also really young so there's a lot of growth potential but what I see now is a player that is a project full of potential but a player that will be frustrating as hell to watch. Not making an exact comparison but some of my frustrations with Bey I see in this kid with that bully ball mentality with a propensity for the ball to stick when he gets it and being turnover prone to boot. I'll say that he has more high end potential than Walker but I think Walker fits better in the framework of a ball movement offense on a team that is led by playmaking guards.

When I see Whitmore play, I see a guy that plays with a star mentality but without the refined skills at this point to play like a star. I don't see the fit unless he changes his style. I actually see Hendricks as the best fit of all these 2nd tier guys but he doesn't appear to be on the Pistons radar if the rumors are to be believed.

I'm with you on Hendricks being the best day 1 fit. People question the ceiling since he doesn't create, but he does the 2 things this team needs most: High level shooting around Cade and Ivey and excellent defense and rim protection. If they don't have the guts to draft him at #5 I'd love to see them move down, get some assets, and grab him at 7 or 9. He's not falling to 10.

For Walker, I guess it all depends upon your belief in the shot. I don't recall the exact stat, but it's extremely rare for a guy with a 66% FT percentage to become a good three point shooter. He wasn't a good three point shooter even though they were all assisted, easy shots. He also had very bad looking misses (looking at misses rather than makes is something a lot of scouts believe in). He's afraid of contact, can't create, and can't shoot midrange either.

On offense, he's a train wreck to me unless you have a ton of elite shooters around him and just need him to Draymond-lite. That's not us. We need to surround Cade and Ivey with guys who can space the floor and make their lives easier. And although his defense is versatile, it's not as good as Hendricks, so I don't see the appeal here on any front over other guys in this range..

As for Whitmore:

-Super high finishing stats - 65% at the rim
-Explosive leaper/athlete (40.5" vertical) to go along with strong frame. Not just trying to muscle guys (Bey, Stuckey) because he also has the athleticism to get by and go over them (Anthony Edwards, Miles Bridges).
-Excellent cutter and finisher off of cuts and lobs
-Explosive first step, solid handle, can create for himself and finish through contact
-Great rebounder for his position
-40% on Catch and Shoot threes even though he started the season slow (thumb injury to shooting hand)
-Excellent in transition
-Good on-ball defender with quick hands and good lateral movement to cut off drives
-Potential to switch up and down on defense due to the combo of strength and athleticism
-Very young - will be 18 on draft night

He has some issues as well. Obviously the assist rate is a red flag and he needs to get better at his off-ball awareness on defense. Some have pointed to the new coach in Villanova and the fact that the team itself was abysmal at passing to say he's a product of their system - I'm not so sure that's the reason. However, he's super young and I only need to teach him first level reads to unleash him.

At the end of the day, the ball is going to be in Cade and Ivey's hands most of the time and Whitmore is going to be a play finisher. At that he's excellent. His potential is sky high on offense and defensively he has all the tools to be lock down.

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Betrayer

[NYLion]

43 minutes ago, Betrayer said:

I'm with you on Hendricks being the best day 1 fit. People question the ceiling since he doesn't create, but he does the 2 things this team needs most: High level shooting around Cade and Ivey and excellent defense and rim protection. If they don't have the guts to draft him at #5 I'd love to see them move down, get some assets, and grab him at 7 or 9. He's not falling to 10.

For Walker, I guess it all depends upon your belief in the shot. I don't recall the exact stat, but it's extremely rare for a guy with a 66% FT percentage to become a good three point shooter. He wasn't a good three point shooter even though they were all assisted, easy shots. He also had very bad looking misses (looking at misses rather than makes is something a lot of scouts believe in). He's afraid of contact, can't create, and can't shoot midrange either.

On offense, he's a train wreck to me unless you have a ton of elite shooters around him and just need him to Draymond-lite. That's not us. We need to surround Cade and Ivey with guys who can space the floor and make their lives easier. And although his defense is versatile, it's not as good as Hendricks, so I don't see the appeal here on any front over other guys in this range..

As for Whitmore:

-Super high finishing stats - 65% at the rim
-Explosive leaper/athlete (40.5" vertical) to go along with strong frame. Not just trying to muscle guys (Bey, Stuckey) because he also has the athleticism to get by and go over them (Anthony Edwards, Miles Bridges).
-Excellent cutter and finisher off of cuts and lobs
-Explosive first step, solid handle, can create for himself and finish through contact
-Great rebounder for his position
-40% on Catch and Shoot threes even though he started the season slow (thumb injury to shooting hand)
-Excellent in transition
-Good on-ball defender with quick hands and good lateral movement to cut off drives
-Potential to switch up and down on defense due to the combo of strength and athleticism
-Very young - will be 18 on draft night

He has some issues as well. Obviously the assist rate is a red flag and he needs to get better at his off-ball awareness on defense. Some have pointed to the new coach in Villanova and the fact that the team itself was abysmal at passing to say he's a product of their system - I'm not so sure that's the reason. However, he's super young and I only need to teach him first level reads to unleash him.

At the end of the day, the ball is going to be in Cade and Ivey's hands most of the time and Whitmore is going to be a play finisher. At that he's excellent. His potential is sky high on offense and defensively he has all the tools to be lock down.

 

 

 

The biggest red flag to me in a player is lack of Basketball IQ because I don't think that's something that's fixable. That's how you get a player like Stanley Johnson who had a lot of physical gifts but lacked awareness. Not saying that Cam is Stanley, there's obviously a  higher upside with him, but I've seen so many low IQ plays from him offensively and defensively that it turned off to him greatly despite the flashes of athletic brilliance that he displayed. Maybe part of that was due to him playing for a bad team feeling like he has to do everything or just chalked up to youth but it's a big negative for me because IQ is usually innate. I don't know, I've never been a big fan of the tools but no toolbox player. 

Also, you're right about his elite finishing ability at the rim and that coming in handy alongside playmakers but, in the same token, he's the type of player who likes to have the ball in his hands to create as well so I see that as a problem because he's not a good passer and you run the risk of the offense getting bogged down when he gets the ball similar to what Bey tried to be the last few years. 

With Whitmore, it almost entirely boils down to upside because what you're getting right now is a player that is very raw and needs strong coaching to get him to buy into a structured system so if you're buying into him being a potential star then this is the right play but if you're buying into players that fit in a team concept (plug and play guys) even if they have a lower ceiling then I think Walker or Hendricks are the play, or D**k if you think his defense will improve. 

[1984Echoes]

It's Hendricks for me.

Cut and dried.

[Shinzaki]

I like Whitmore...

[buddha]

1 hour ago, NYLion said:

The biggest red flag to me in a player is lack of Basketball IQ because I don't think that's something that's fixable. That's how you get a player like Stanley Johnson who had a lot of physical gifts but lacked awareness. Not saying that Cam is Stanley, there's obviously a  higher upside with him, but I've seen so many low IQ plays from him offensively and defensively that it turned off to him greatly despite the flashes of athletic brilliance that he displayed. Maybe part of that was due to him playing for a bad team feeling like he has to do everything or just chalked up to youth but it's a big negative for me because IQ is usually innate. I don't know, I've never been a big fan of the tools but no toolbox player. 

Also, you're right about his elite finishing ability at the rim and that coming in handy alongside playmakers but, in the same token, he's the type of player who likes to have the ball in his hands to create as well so I see that as a problem because he's not a good passer and you run the risk of the offense getting bogged down when he gets the ball similar to what Bey tried to be the last few years. 

With Whitmore, it almost entirely boils down to upside because what you're getting right now is a player that is very raw and needs strong coaching to get him to buy into a structured system so if you're buying into him being a potential star then this is the right play but if you're buying into players that fit in a team concept (plug and play guys) even if they have a lower ceiling then I think Walker or Hendricks are the play, or D**k if you think his defense will improve. 

the difference between whitmore and stanley is that whitmore is an elite nba athlete right now and stanley was never an elite nba athlete.  whitmore's an elite finisher now and stanley was not.

the iq thing is probably an issue, but he's very young still.

if anyone reminds me of stanley its walker.  a tweener who is strong and doesnt have great shooting fundamentals.  a guy who could be too slow to guard 3s and too small to guard 4s in a way that stanley was too slow to guard 2s and too unathletic to guard 3s.

[Shinzaki]

IIRC...Stanley only finished at something like 35% at the rim in college.  But that's from memory...Whitmore was more like 60%.

I like him as an off the ball option on the wing.  There's been talk about bringing Grant back to Detroit for big $$$...I don't recall him being particularly effective with Cade..or maybe Cade was more effective when Grant didn't play

 

[buddha]

3 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

IIRC...Stanley only finished at something like 35% at the rim in college.  But that's from memory...Whitmore was more like 60%.

I like him as an off the ball option on the wing.  There's been talk about bringing Grant back to Detroit for big $$$...I don't recall him being particularly effective with Cade..or maybe Cade was more effective when Grant didn't play

 

grant was the ultimate ball stopper when he was here.  however, iirc, as cade grew in confidence, grant began to take on a more secondary role, which is what he is best at.

[Betrayer]

100% agree that Walker is far more of the Stanley Johnson pick than Whitmore. They aren't even comparable in my opinion.

As for Grant, he was a ball stopper but there are a number of factors here. First, that's what he came here to do and was asked to do. Second, who else was going to do it before Cade showed up? Third, things changed as the season went on and Troy said he asked him to play more efficiently. Fourth, Casey has never coached shot selection in his entire career. Fifth, Grant did play much more like we'd want him to play when he went to Portland with a clear pecking order.

I'm not sure Grant is leaving Portland and I'm not sure I'm ready to start giving out 30M contracts for non-All-Stars on a team that only won 17 games last year. But...he does fill a huge need, would undoubtedly improve this team, and is a better option than most of free agents this year. 

That said, I still think Troy uses his cap space in trade rather than Free Agency.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Betrayer

[NYLion]

2 hours ago, buddha said:

the difference between whitmore and stanley is that whitmore is an elite nba athlete right now and stanley was never an elite nba athlete.  whitmore's an elite finisher now and stanley was not.

the iq thing is probably an issue, but he's very young still.

if anyone reminds me of stanley its walker.  a tweener who is strong and doesnt have great shooting fundamentals.  a guy who could be too slow to guard 3s and too small to guard 4s in a way that stanley was too slow to guard 2s and too unathletic to guard 3s.

FTR, I didn't compare them directly as I mentioned in my previous post. I only mentioned Stanley as a guy who had physical gifts but had stuff missing between the ears. Whitmore makes a lot of poor decisions with the ball, it's a major concern for me.

Also, Johnson's jumper looked broken from Day 1. Walker's stroke looks just fine, he just has to refine it a bit. Funny enough, Miller is the one who has a release that could be cause for concern. That low release could be problematic at the next level despite him having the length to shoot over people.

Edited June 14, 2023 by NYLion

[Betrayer]

20 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Also, Johnson's jumper looked broken from Day 1. Walker's stroke looks just fine, he just has to refine it a bit. Funny enough, Miller is the one who has a release that could be cause for concern. That low release could be problematic at the next level despite him having the length to shoot over people.

Interesting point and it could actually matter to us. It's probably just draft week smokescreens, but there are some rumors that Whitmore could go before Miller and bump him down to us.

If Whitmore goes higher and Amen falls to us I seriously hope we find a trade partner that's in love with him (for instance, Orlando) and trade down. On top of my concerns with Amen's shooting, he needs to be on-ball to do anything on offense, so I see no way we make this work with Cade, Ivey, and Amen.