Detroit Lions Offseason Thread 2023

[MichiganCardinal]

I think I would rather Wagner. When Walker went out last season, it felt like the defense lost their sense of leadership. I think Wagner would instantly become the Kenny Rogers to our 06 Tigers.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think I would rather Wagner. When Walker went out last season, it felt like the defense lost their sense of leadership. I think Wagner would instantly become the Kenny Rogers to our 06 Tigers.

Funny you mention that because I was thinking how Hutchinson reminds me of Verlander. The talent that should have been the #1 pick comes to Detroit and just has that look and feel of the leader of the team for the next decade. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Tee Higgins scored 42 points for the Bengals last year on 7 total touchdowns. If you added his point totals to the Lions 453 total team points that would put us up to 295 total points and would put us 1 point behind the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and that is with both Swift and JaMo being limited in playing time last year. I get that Higgins will eat up a certain share of targets that might otherwise go to JaMo and St. Brown, but the guy gets in the endzone and scores. He's a 6'4, big bodied wideout who can be a redzone machine given his height and size.

Whose going to cover us and stop us with a receiving corps like that? Who can opposing defenses afford to leave open if you press with a double team? We would be a coverage nightmare if we had Tee Higgins on this team and there isn't an opposing team, sans maybe San Francisco and the Eagles, that could slow us down. No one would want to face us with Higgins on the team. No one wanted to face us this year at season's end without Higgins.

The goal at the end of the day is to score more points than the other team and win the game. If you win a track meet at 38-35 versus a tighter, lower scoring game like 21-17 who cares how you did it. Right now, it is elite offenses winning championships in the NFL. Our offense is elite based on yards and point totals. Adding Tee Higgins will only solidify that and puts us in the stratosphere of the two Super Bowl teams from this past season.

Short of finding a diamond in the rough, Higgins will undoubtedly be better next year than whoever we draft at #18 and he will give us a better shot at winning the division, the conference and potentially making a Super Bowl in a seemingly weak NFC. If you can go out draft a Devon Witherspoon at #6 and sign a guy like Dalvin Tomlinson, Tremaine Edwards or Bobby Wagner in lieu of drafting whomever at DT or LB at #18 I'd argue that the combo of Higgins/Wagner/Witherspoon would hold a higher WAR than whatever two players you end up drafting plus your splash free agent signing.

I think Higgins is a difference maker who helps you win now. He gives you an immediate impact with a WAR that would be above anyone you are drafting. In an offensive league like the NFL, with as poor number of offenses as we will face in the NFC and NFC North (Bears and Packers without Rodgers) I'd argue Higgins could be a net +1 WAR.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Mr.TaterSalad

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

The Lions next leading receiver after St Brown is Kalif Raymond. Receiver isn't exactly a deep position on this team. Teams win with elite offenses. Higgins can make this offense elite and you still have draft picks to make the defense good enough. They have $120 million in cap space next year. The cap will continue to increase. They have room to sign Higgins and St Brown and Sewell to extensions. If Holmes keeps drafting well he's going to have to keep paying his players. If they can't afford to keep all three of Higgins, St Brown and Williams, then trade Williams like the Chiefs did with Hill. 

Jamo is going to get the reps and at a much cheaper rate. St. Brown and Jamo are their core receivers yet Higgins will be paid as a #1, not to mention giving up the draft capital to acquire him. I'd rather they just re-sign Chark (at a lesser rate than Higgins will get almost certainly) who started to develop synergy with their QB and keep the 1st. 

[Motown Bombers]

9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Tee Higgins scored 42 points for the Bengals last year on 7 total touchdowns. If you added his point totals to the Lions 453 total team points that would put us up to 295 total points and would put us 1 point behind the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and that is with both Swift and JaMo being limited in playing time last year. I get that Higgins will eat up a certain share of targets that might otherwise go to JaMo and St. Brown, but the guy gets in the endzone and scores. He's a 6'4, big bodied wideout who can be a redzone machine given his height and size.

Whose going to cover us and stop us with a receiving corps like that? Who can opposing defenses afford to leave open if you press with a double team? We would be a coverage nightmare if we had Tee Higgins on this team and there isn't an opposing team, sans maybe San Francisco and the Eagles, that could slow us down. No one would want to face us with Higgins on the team. No one wanted to face us this year at season's end without Higgins.

The goal at the end of the day is to score more points than the other team and win the game. If you win a track meet at 38-35 versus a tighter, lower scoring game like 21-17 who cares how you did it. Right now, it is elite offenses winning championships in the NFL. Our offense is elite based on yards and point totals. Adding Tee Higgins will only solidify that and puts us in the stratosphere of the two Super Bowl teams from this past season.

Short of finding a diamond in the rough, Higgins will undoubtedly be better next year than whoever we draft at #18 and he will give us a better shot at winning the division, the conference and potentially making a Super Bowl in a seemingly weak NFC. If you can go out draft a Devon Witherspoon at #6 and sign a guy like Dalvin Tomlinson, Tremaine Edwards or Bobby Wagner in lieu of drafting whomever at DT or LB at #18 I'd argue that the combo of Higgins/Wagner/Witherspoon would hold a higher WAR than whatever two players you end up drafting plus your splash free agent signing.

I think Higgins is a difference maker who helps you win now. He gives you an immediate impact with a WAR that would be above anyone you are drafting. In an offensive league like the NFL, with as poor number of offenses as we will face in the NFC and NFC North (Bears and Packers without Rodgers) I'd argue Higgins could be a net +1 WAR.

To be fair, you would also have to subtract Chark's 3 TDs from the Lions point total since you are replacing Chark with Higgins. The Lions would be a matchup nightmare. I would say guys like Reynolds and Raymond would get their receptions cut but I don't see a team that could stop all three. They want to play deep to take away Williams than go underneath to St Brown. They want to stop the underneath just go over the top to Williams. Where I like Higgins is on say a 4th and 10 and you need a 1st down to stay alive you can throw it up for grabs to Higgins and he has a good chance of making that play. I don't think the Lions other receivers can do that. St Brown is very good at getting separation, but on a do or die play if he doesn't get separation he probably isn't making the catch. 

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Jamo is going to get the reps and at a much cheaper rate. St. Brown and Jamo are their core receivers yet Higgins will be paid as a #1, not to mention giving up the draft capital to acquire him. I'd rather they just re-sign Chark (at a lesser rate than Higgins will get almost certainly) who started to develop synergy with their QB and keep the 1st. 

Chark will cost more next year than Higgins. I don't see Williams as a high volume receiver. I think he tops out at 60-65 catches. He's a field stretcher and can make plays but they lack the physical receiver who can make contested catches. In today's NFL, I don't think it's a bad thing to have 3 good receivers. The Lions will have an elite unit and be a nightmare matchup. Their defense would just need to be good enough. When Goff went to the Super Bowl with the Rams, they had Cooks, Woods, and Kupp. They even traded a 1st round pick for Cooks. Give Goff those same weapons again. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

To be fair, you would also have to subtract Chark's 3 TDs from the Lions point total since you are replacing Chark with Higgins. The Lions would be a matchup nightmare. I would say guys like Reynolds and Raymond would get their receptions cut but I don't see a team that could stop all three. They want to play deep to take away Williams than go underneath to St Brown. They want to stop the underneath just go over the top to Williams. Where I like Higgins is on say a 4th and 10 and you need a 1st down to stay alive you can throw it up for grabs to Higgins and he has a good chance of making that play. I don't think the Lions other receivers can do that. St Brown is very good at getting separation, but on a do or die play if he doesn't get separation he probably isn't making the catch. 

I forgot about subtracting Chark there. So we'd be around 18 point behind the Chiefs in that case. I also like Higgins in the redzone as a target too. Having a big-bodied, 6'4 receiver in the redzone makes us that much more of a matchup problem.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Chark will cost more next year than Higgins. I don't see Williams as a high volume receiver. I think he tops out at 60-65 catches. He's a field stretcher and can make plays but they lack the physical receiver who can make contested catches. In today's NFL, I don't think it's a bad thing to have 3 good receivers. The Lions will have an elite unit and be a nightmare matchup. Their defense would just need to be good enough. When Goff went to the Super Bowl with the Rams, they had Cooks, Woods, and Kupp. They even traded a 1st round pick for Cooks. Give Goff those same weapons again. 

I agree with all of this. A Higgins/Chark type of receiver is what we don't have under contract on this roster right now. We need a go up and get it guy and Higgins certainly is that and as you said, will actually come cheaper next year than Chark.

Look at the Bengals from two seasons ago, they already had Higgins and Boys as their #1 and #2 WRs and they still went out and added Ja'Marr Chase and it got them to a Super Bowl (though having Burrow helps a whole lot). What defensive player would the Bengals had added that year in the draft that would have made that type of impact and propelled them to a Super Bowl? Maybe Micah Parsons? I'm not saying Goff is Joe Burrow, but given the way he played down the stretch last year, he isn't as far behind as you might initially think.

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I forgot about subtracting Chark there. So we'd be around 18 point behind the Chiefs in that case. I also like Higgins in the redzone as a target too. Having a big-bodied, 6'4 receiver in the redzone makes us that much more of a matchup problem.

His skillset fits so perfect with the way this Lions roster is constructed. I'm not advocating the Lions need to spend a high draft pick or spend money on a receiver but I'm saying they should do it for this receiver. The fit is perfect and makes the Lions a matchup nightmare and they still have a lot of resources left to address defense. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

His skillset fits so perfect with the way this Lions roster is constructed. I'm not advocating the Lions need to spend a high draft pick or spend money on a receiver but I'm saying they should do it for this receiver. The fit is perfect and makes the Lions a matchup nightmare and they still have a lot of resources left to address defense. 

The big difference between trading for Higgins and drafting say a Quentin Johnston or a TE like Michael Mayer is that Higgins is a proven commodity versus anyone you are drafting. And certainly versus a Mayer, he gives you more speed, route options, and greater positional value.

The more I look at the numbers of what he gives this offense and the more I think about how teams are winning in today's NFL, I am increasingly in agreement with you. Short of finding a unicorn, anyone you draft at #18 won't give you the production value of Tee Higgins in year 1. Brad Holmes is proving to be a good enough drafter that he can find good players elsewhere to fit our needs. Higgins plus an aggressive free agent signing makes a lot of sense to me.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I agree with all of this. A Higgins/Chark type of receiver is what we don't have under contract on this roster right now. We need a go up and get it guy and Higgins certainly is that and as you said, will actually come cheaper next year than Chark.

Look at the Bengals from two seasons ago, they already had Higgins and Boys as their #1 and #2 WRs and they still went out and added Ja'Marr Chase and it got them to a Super Bowl (though having Burrow helps a whole lot). What defensive player would the Bengals had added that year in the draft that would have made that type of impact and propelled them to a Super Bowl? Maybe Micah Parsons? I'm not saying Goff is Joe Burrow, but given the way he played down the stretch last year, he isn't as far behind as you might initially think.

When Goff had a similar compliment of receivers he went to the Super Bowl. The Rams added Cooks to an already good receiving core and they went to the Super Bowl. They signed him to a big extension and then traded him after two seasons. If the Lions don't go crazy on a Higgins extension, they could still trade him if they are worried they couldn't sign St Brown or Williams or Sewell or whoever. 

As you mentioned before, he's an asset in the red zone. As the field constricts when you get into the red zone, Williams speed isn't as big of a weapon. That's where you need a big receiver who can go up and get it. 

[Motown Bombers]

In 2018, the Rams ran 11 personnel 80% of the time. Cooks and Woods had over 1,200 yards a piece. Kupp had 5060 yards in 8 games. They had three receivers on 1,000 yard paces. There was enough ball to go around and Goff exceled.  

[RedRamage]

3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Wouldn't surprise me at all.  I don't have super extensive experience with BYU, but I do have a little bit... I visited the campus once for work related reasons.  The campus store has (or at least had) a rather large clothing section of non-BYU items simply because there weren't many alternative ways to get more modest clothing, especially for the woman.  The marriage rate of students on campus is also much higher than the national average.

[Motown Bombers]

I'm confused how Zach Wilson made it at BYU since he has a thing for the cougars and I don't mean the BYU mascot. 

[CMRivdogs]

11 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Wouldn't surprise me at all.  I don't have super extensive experience with BYU, but I do have a little bit... I visited the campus once for work related reasons.  The campus store has (or at least had) a rather large clothing section of non-BYU items simply because there weren't many alternative ways to get more modest clothing, especially for the woman.  The marriage rate of students on campus is also much higher than the national average.

One of my takeaways was about his first BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall, who left BYU for UVa a school that has a reputation of being a "party school".  I wondered why he walked away after several successful seasons. It makes sense now.

 

 

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Chark will cost more next year than Higgins. I don't see Williams as a high volume receiver. I think he tops out at 60-65 catches. He's a field stretcher and can make plays but they lack the physical receiver who can make contested catches. In today's NFL, I don't think it's a bad thing to have 3 good receivers. The Lions will have an elite unit and be a nightmare matchup. Their defense would just need to be good enough. When Goff went to the Super Bowl with the Rams, they had Cooks, Woods, and Kupp. They even traded a 1st round pick for Cooks. Give Goff those same weapons again. 

That's why I'd rather re-sign Chark and keep the 1st, he's that type of guy you mentioned. Chark will cost more next season but Higgins is likely to cost a good deal more the season after and probably 3 after that.  The Lions can have an elite unit with Chark and still have #18 to add another starting player. It's just not worth it for a luxury IMO.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[1984Echoes]

6 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

.... I don't see Williams as a high volume receiver. I think he tops out at 60-65 catches. He's a field stretcher and can make plays but ...

I think Jamo is going to be an...

Odell Beckham in his first 3 years...

95 catches, 1,400 yards, 12 TD's on an annual basis...

[MichiganCardinal]

Bold move advocating for your team to trade for your replacement. Not that I'm against it.

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I was reading from a Lions Wire article about a Ramsey trade and that it would likely have to come after June 1 do to cap implications.

Quote

If the Rams do trade Ramsey before June 1, they’d only clear $5.6 million in cap space this year. If he’s a post-June 1 trade, they’d save $17 million, which is a significant amount for a team that’s currently $14 million over the limit.

I really like Ramsey and would love to have him on this team. Waiting until after June 1 gives us time to develop an offseason plan and allow it to better play out. We don't need to rush right now into a bidding war for Ramsey. If Ramsey is getting traded after June 1 then I'd like to make a run at Jamel Dean or James Bradberry before trading draft capital to acquire Ramsey. He's my Plan B option if we strikeout on Dean or Bradberry.

[Stanley70]

The Rams have to get under the cap by March 15, so it could happen sooner.

[MichiganCardinal]

20 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I was reading from a Lions Wire article about a Ramsey trade and that it would likely have to come after June 1 do to cap implications.

I really like Ramsey and would love to have him on this team. Waiting until after June 1 gives us time to develop an offseason plan and allow it to better play out. We don't need to rush right now into a bidding war for Ramsey. If Ramsey is getting traded after June 1 then I'd like to make a run at Jamel Dean or James Bradberry before trading draft capital to acquire Ramsey. He's my Plan B option if we strikeout on Dean or Bradberry.

Similar was true of the Stafford/Goff trade IIRC. It was made in late January, but couldn't be made official until the new league year began in March. 

I like Ramsey, but I'm weary of giving up too much. I wouldn't give up #6, and #18 causes me hesitation. I really trust our scouting team right now to find difference makers in the draft.

[KL2]

5 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I was reading from a Lions Wire article about a Ramsey trade and that it would likely have to come after June 1 do to cap implications.

I really like Ramsey and would love to have him on this team. Waiting until after June 1 gives us time to develop an offseason plan and allow it to better play out. We don't need to rush right now into a bidding war for Ramsey. If Ramsey is getting traded after June 1 then I'd like to make a run at Jamel Dean or James Bradberry before trading draft capital to acquire Ramsey. He's my Plan B option if we strikeout on Dean or Bradberry.

It doesn't have to come after June 1. The reason why people note that is that the rams get massive more cap savings by doing it. The trading team would have little incentive to do the rams a favor. It would allows delay their draft compensation until 2024. Which would be bad for them too.

A bit of a catch 22

They will probably half to deal him now and take just 5 mill this year, they get a young body to add to the win now team and more cap relief In the future. The team acquiring him will also have him in the fold so they can figure out their offseason and don't lose picks down the road, just this year.

Edited February 27, 2023 by KL2

[MichiganCardinal]

Who needs to draft a QB when a franchise QB is available in free agency?? /s

 

[buddha]

would wentz be a backup qb option?

probably not given his history of nobody liking him.