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Detroit Lions Offseason Thread 2023


Mr.TaterSalad

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2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I definitely hope they get one of the top ILB at either 18 or possibly trading up to the late 1st or early second whether that be Sanders, Simpson or my personal fave Jack Campbell. Maybe have Anzalone be a mentor albeit expensive one to bring them along, if he helped turn a late round pick Rodrigo into a solid starter in his rookie year maybe he can turn a 1st/2nd rounder into a plus guy in a short amount of time. 

Holmes doesn't put a lot of value into LB so I doubt they take one early in the draft and I'm ok with it. Keeping building those lines and a playmaker for the offense assuming that Chark walks.

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the lions value continuity and reward their own.  they want to be a team like the steelers: an organization built on a culture, and that culture rewards its contributors.

i too am skeptical like the rest of you.  i watched anzalone struggle many times.  but lets see what the terms of the contract actually are before we judge.

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28 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I know it's way too easy as fans to armchair quarterback a GM's decision making and say why wasn't player X signed instead of the guy you did. I know there is a lot more than goes into signing a player than the Madden, video game view of free agency that many of us fans have. But I'm going to armchair GM for a second and put on my Madden hat.

I just have a bit of a hard time paying Anzalone this type of money with someone like Bobby Wagner or Lavonte David still on the market. And who knows, maybe they are in on trying to sign Wagner or David. Maybe they were in but the price is too high or they simply won't sign here. But I can't help but think that Wagner or David coming in to fill Anzalone's role and quarterback this defense, even at age 32, would be an upgrade over what Anzalone has done the past two seasons.

I'm not mad that Holmes gave Anzalone this contract, it's just disappointing to see someone like Wagner or Lavonte David still on the market and we put the money into Anzalone on day one of free agency.

The chances of Wagner signing in Detroit were always slim or none. The Lions don't have the cache to pull in a high end vet right now.

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32 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I know it's way too easy as fans to armchair quarterback a GM's decision making and say why wasn't player X signed instead of the guy you did. I know there is a lot more than goes into signing a player than the Madden, video game view of free agency that many of us fans have. But I'm going to armchair GM for a second and put on my Madden hat.

I just have a bit of a hard time paying Anzalone this type of money with someone like Bobby Wagner or Lavonte David still on the market. And who knows, maybe they are in on trying to sign Wagner or David. Maybe they were in but the price is too high or they simply won't sign here. But I can't help but think that Wagner or David coming in to fill Anzalone's role and quarterback this defense, even at age 32, would be an upgrade over what Anzalone has done the past two seasons.

I'm not mad that Holmes gave Anzalone this contract, it's just disappointing to see someone like Wagner or Lavonte David still on the market and we put the money into Anzalone on day one of free agency.

Priceless. 

Do you think Wagner or David will sign for anything less than double the AAV of Anzalone? They will both be using the Edwards contract as their landmark, 3x what Anzalone got AAV. And we have no idea about the guarantee. Again, Wagner/David will use $50 million as their landmark, discounted due to age. Anzalone will probably have no more than $12 million guaranteed.

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6 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

...

Do you think Wagner or David will sign for anything less than double the AAV of Anzalone? They will both be using the Edwards contract as their landmark, 3x what Anzalone got AAV. And we have no idea about the guarantee. Again, Wagner/David will use $50 million as their landmark, discounted due to age. Anzalone will probably have no more than $12 million guaranteed.

20 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Holmes doesn't put a lot of value into LB so I doubt they take one early in the draft and I'm ok with it. Keeping building those lines and a playmaker for the offense assuming that Chark walks.

 

I think the key issue for me is that Holmes does NOT ignore LB'er the 1st (3) rounds but, instead, drafts someone who can eventually be a starter. He needs to do it. We need the (quality) depth. We need a coverage LB'er who can actually cover TE's and such since we absolutely suck there (with no evidence... just off the top of my head...)

No.

Holmes can NOT ignore the LB'er position. In fact, I'm going to go waaaay out on a limb and say that he drafts one in the 1st (3) rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft.

(I want to be specific so that there are no misinterpretations...).

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4 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Priceless. 

Do you think Wagner or David will sign for anything less than double the AAV of Anzalone? They will both be using the Edwards contract as their landmark, 3x what Anzalone got AAV. And we have no idea about the guarantee. Again, Wagner/David will use $50 million as their landmark, discounted due to age. Anzalone will probably have no more than $12 million guaranteed.

No they won't sign for close to what Anzalone did and I don't care because they are better players than AA is. Sometimes you have to splurge and go big if you have the opportunity to make a significant upgrade at a position. You can't and shouldn't fill every need or make every upgrade in free agency because it won't work and will put you in cap hell over the long run.

But I think this is a bit of a unique situation with Wagner and David because you have two players, both over 30, who could conceivably sign a one year deal. If an over 30 player like Wagner or David, who could reasonably be expected to give you at least one more good season, were willing to sign for a year you wouldn't have gone in big and offered $17-$18 million or something close to that? Let's say the Lions draft a guy like Jack Campbell or Trenton Simpson. You'd only hope those players could be as good as Wagner or David are and would be paying them accordingly down the line when their contracts are up. Having a Wagner or David around to mentor our rookie would be a huge added bonus.

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40 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

No they won't sign for close to what Anzalone did and I don't care because they are better players than AA is. Sometimes you have to splurge and go big if you have the opportunity to make a significant upgrade at a position. You can't and shouldn't fill every need or make every upgrade in free agency because it won't work and will put you in cap hell over the long run.

But I think this is a bit of a unique situation with Wagner and David because you have two players, both over 30, who could conceivably sign a one year deal. If an over 30 player like Wagner or David, who could reasonably be expected to give you at least one more good season, were willing to sign for a year you wouldn't have gone in big and offered $17-$18 million or something close to that? Let's say the Lions draft a guy like Jack Campbell or Trenton Simpson. You'd only hope those players could be as good as Wagner or David are and would be paying them accordingly down the line when their contracts are up. Having a Wagner or David around to mentor our rookie would be a huge added bonus.

Neither of them will sign a one year deal. Probably both of them will look for a three year deal. And neither of them is going to come in and mentor any rookies in a defense they are just learning. At any rate, if their chief skills are physical, what could they possibly teach a rookie? Either the rookie is fast and strong or he is not.

OTOH, the entire Lions coaching staff has raved about Anzalone's ability to teach defense to the rookie Rodrigo. And he did it at a third of what Wagner or David will make. 

Wagner and David were never going to be the first guys to sign. They want to wait and see what the market will bring them. They don't care about the rebuild, the culture, restoring the roar, whatever, and they don't have to. They care about making the most dollars they can in the short time they have left. More power to them. But that doesn't mean I think my team should make them the team's second-highest paid player after the QB. What message does that send? Work your butt off, Anzalone, be a leader on the field and off, do everything we ask you to do, and... we'll replace you with a mercenary. Might as well light the culture right on fire.

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21 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Neither of them will sign a one year deal. Probably both of them will look for a three year deal. And neither of them is going to come in and mentor any rookies in a defense they are just learning. At any rate, if their chief skills are physical, what could they possibly teach a rookie? Either the rookie is fast and strong or he is not.

OTOH, the entire Lions coaching staff has raved about Anzalone's ability to teach defense to the rookie Rodrigo. And he did it at a third of what Wagner or David will make. 

Wagner and David were never going to be the first guys to sign. They want to wait and see what the market will bring them. They don't care about the rebuild, the culture, restoring the roar, whatever, and they don't have to. They care about making the most dollars they can in the short time they have left. More power to them. But that doesn't mean I think my team should make them the team's second-highest paid player after the QB. What message does that send? Work your butt off, Anzalone, be a leader on the field and off, do everything we ask you to do, and... we'll replace you with a mercenary. Might as well light the culture right on fire.

Nailed it. This is the MCDC way.

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7 hours ago, KL2 said:

Meh a fairly useless chart

Not at all.  I got a ton of value finding out what the NFL average was over 5 years at each position.    

Don’t tell me that you knew that WR the position that NFL teams invested the most draft capital on the last 5 years.    

The Eagles spent 27% of their draft capital on WR. 

Cardinals 26% and Jets 20% trying to find a QB.  

 

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3 hours ago, Hongbit said:

Not at all.  I got a ton of value finding out what the NFL average was over 5 years at each position.    

Don’t tell me that you knew that WR the position that NFL teams invested the most draft capital on the last 5 years.    

The Eagles spent 27% of their draft capital on WR. 

Cardinals 26% and Jets 20% trying to find a QB.  

 

It is useless, sorry. 

There is no weight for a first round pick versus a late round pick. There is no consieration for whether a player makes a team. The sample size is too small and having a pro-bowler could easily impact the decision. 

Let's look at some possible scnerios.

The Cardinals have pick 210, they take a QB knowing they would like to find a third QB for the roster for camp to take the load of Murray. They take one, he doens't make the team but is put on the practice squad for six games and is cut. Then who cares?

The Eagles landed two good receivers in teh draft 6 years ago and now are paying them each $15 million. They have decided to dedicate money elsewhere so for backups they just keep using low round picks on WR and churring through them in two years and letting them go. 

There are too many items that can throw this report into wacko land and dramtically increase or decrease percentages. That is what makes it usueless. It lacks any context or weight as we know first round picks are more targeted selections than a seven round guy when many teams might take an 8th or 9th guy and he has no real shot to make a roster. 

And yeah I knew WR was where they invested the most when you break it down like this. Most teams will carry what 6 guys and maybe a kick returner that is usually a WR. That is what like 14 percent of the entire roster so it makes sense they spent draft capital there. It would probably be Oline, but the survey broke down T, G, C while not breaking down inside or outside WR.

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