2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[casimir]

Manning shouldn't be considered more than the 5th SP for next season.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Maybe we take a run at Robbie Ray. He is a Devil We Know, and he has seemed to figure something out. The main problem with him is the that RA9-WAR is waaay higher than his regular WAR, which could lead to an over-projection.

 

He really got his BBs under control in 2021 (6.7% BB% vs career 10.3%) and seemed to benefit from a low BABIP (.269 vs .309).  In fact, his last season is a clear outlier (well, OK, 2015 compares).  I don't know that its worth banking on going forward.

[RandyMarsh]

12 minutes ago, casimir said:

Manning shouldn't be considered more than the 5th SP for next season.

If he gives us 160 innings of say a 4.25 era that is a big net gain vs. the 80 of a 6 ERA that he gave us this year. That was what I was getting at, he doesn't have to be the ace that we hoped he would be for him to bring us extra value next year. 

Edited November 5, 2021 by RandyMarsh

[gehringer_2]

49 minutes ago, casimir said:

He really got his BBs under control in 2021 (6.7% BB% vs career 10.3%) and seemed to benefit from a low BABIP (.269 vs .309).  In fact, his last season is a clear outlier (well, OK, 2015 compares).  I don't know that its worth banking on going forward.

looks like he pretty much stopped throwing his slower breaking ball - he was over 90% FB/Slider in '21, so he's basically got his walks under control as a 2 pitch pitcher. Is that sustainable as a starter? Then again, what's a starter anymore?

[1984Echoes]

11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

looks like he pretty much stopped throwing his slower breaking ball - he was over 90% FB/Slider in '21, so he's basically got his walks under control as a 2 pitch pitcher. Is that sustainable as a starter? Then again, what's a starter anymore?

But is that enough to wager 5 years and $100-120 Mill?

I've got him on my want list... but quite a bit lower than others on my list because I don't want to go that long on an SP contract nor does he have a lengthy trustworthy history and as you pointed out... a suspect go-forward arsenal that indicates longevity/ effectiveness (potential) issues...

I'd rather avoid the lengthy contract to be honest.

1st choice Verlander or Syndergaard, fallback Wood or McHugh.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

If they spend big on a SS and he's a bust, this rebuild will be ruined. It would set us back for years. So the question is, do we trust Al Avila to spend 100+ million $$?

So, they should never sign any top players and just hope that all their prospects come through?  Every big signing is going to come with risks.  That includes eventually signing their own players.  

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

So, they should never sign any top players and just hope that all their prospects come through?  Every big signing is going to come with risks.  That includes eventually signing their own players.  

Yeah...

I HIGHLY doubt that this rebuild will be "ruined" by any one Free Agent signing. Bust or not.

Hyberbolic.

[Tiger337]

When 84echoes thinks you are being hyperbolic...

[RandyMarsh]

Yeah in baseball an albatross contract isn't the worse thing in the world and really shouldn't set you back much at all. All it may prevent you from doing is spending big money on other free agents.

[SoCalTiger]

I would guess Trevor story will cost closer to 200 million than 100 million.

Ray would worry me on a 100 million plus contract banking on just one years performance. 

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

I would guess Trevor Story will cost closer to 200 million than 100 million....

My guess is Story ends up in between those numbers... not near that high point and more than the 100...

My guess would be more in the $125-$160mm range..

[SoCalTiger]

Just now, 1984Echoes said:

My guess is Story ends up in between those numbers... not near that high point and more than the 100...

My guess would be more in the $125-$160mm range..

If your right then he will probably be a Tiger.

[Archie]

Whatever pitchers they get they Al needs a win.  His track record with FA pitcher signings isn't the best.  Granted he's been look at low end but he's picked some real duds.  Fiers might of been the best but he's still got Zimmerman, Mark Lowe and a few others like that on his record.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

I would guess Trevor story will cost closer to 200 million than 100 million.

Ray would worry me on a 100 million plus contract banking on just one years performance. 

It's hard to predict because it's rare to have so many good players available at one position.  Due to supply and demand. it could be a little lower than people think.    

[RandyMarsh]

Gausman is another potentially great starting pitcher. Some may feel he is a product of SF and their pitching whisperers though. 

[casimir]

3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

If he gives us 160 innings of say a 4.25 era that is a big net gain vs. the 80 of a 6 ERA that he gave us this year. That was what I was getting at, he doesn't have to be the ace that we hoped he would be for him to bring us extra value next year. 

That’s going to be quite a leap for someone that was more of a thrower than a pitcher last season.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yeah in baseball an albatross contract isn't the worse thing in the world and really shouldn't set you back much at all. All it may prevent you from doing is spending big money on other free agents.

Opportunity cost.

[RandyMarsh]

2 minutes ago, casimir said:

That’s going to be quite a leap for someone that was more of a thrower than a pitcher last season.

It would be but I don't think its that far fetched. Mize's numbers were terrible in 2020 and he rebounded. 

[casimir]

4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

It would be but I don't think its that far fetched. Mize's numbers were terrible in 2020 and he rebounded. 

I don’t know, I just don’t have much have in Manning for some reason.

[Tigermojo]

1 hour ago, Archie said:

Whatever pitchers they get they Al needs a win.  His track record with FA pitcher signings isn't the best.  Granted he's been look at low end but he's picked some real duds.  Fiers might of been the best but he's still got Zimmerman, Mark Lowe and a few others like that on his record.

Hopefully their improved approach to sabermetrics can help with that. They definitely need more arms because I don't see much improvement from the defense.

[RandyMarsh]

9 minutes ago, casimir said:

I don’t know, I just don’t have much have in Manning for some reason.

Personally I really don't either as far as being a frontline guy but I do think he is more than capable of being a league average starter which would be an upgrade over last year. 

[sabretooth]

4 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

They're also counting on some extra 120 or so innings from Manning,  Mize and Skubal with hopefully some progression. If they can produce a mid to upper 3ish ERA for those 120 innings that will go a long way. 

I ran an analysis a few times....the gains we can expect from Mize/Manning/Skubal/Alexander will likely be offset by regressions from whoever replaces the starts for Turnbull/Boyd and Peralta/Urena, esp. since the latter pair overperformed their peripherals.

We need two new SPs who are at least average, not one.

[casimir]

9 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Personally I really don't either as far as being a frontline guy but I do think he is more than capable of being a league average starter which would be an upgrade over last year. 

That's why I hope the plan is for the Tigers to consider him no more than end of the rotation this season.  Fill out towards the top of the rotation.

[casimir]

MLB's top 20 offseason trade candidates: Byron Buxton, Josh Hader, and Craig Kimbrel among big names

A couple of Tiger notes that have kicked around MTS/MTF:

Quote

 

11. Wil Myers, Padres
12. Eric Hosmer, Padres

In an effort to clear payroll at the deadline, the Padres were said to be willing to attach a top prospect (reportedly outfielder Robert Hassell) to Hosmer to unload his contract. Myers has been mentioned as a salary dump candidate multiple times over the years, and I assume San Diego would be willing to attach a prospect to him as well. The contracts are ugly:

Hosmer: $20 million in 2022, plus $13 million per year from 2023-25
Myers: $20 million in 2022 plus $1 million buyout of $20 million club option for 2024

That's four years and $59 million for Hosmer but only one year and $21 million for Myers. That makes Myers more likely to be traded, though absorbing Hosmer's contract has a better chance to land you a premier prospect like Hassell or CJ Abrams. Either way, the Padres already have over $200 million on the books next year when you include projected arbitration salaries, which equals motivation to move Myers and/or Hosmer. 

Possible trade suitors: Rangers, Tigers, maybe the Orioles. Hosmer and Myers represent an opportunity for a rebuilding team to essentially buy a top prospect. Take on their contract, add that high-end talent to your pipeline, and then figure out how they fit on your roster. Heck, why not take on Myers' contract to get a prospect, then eat his entire salary and flip himself elsewhere for more prospects? It seems doable. All it takes is an owner willing to spend a little cash. The injury prone Drew Pomeranz has two years and $16M remaining on his contract. He could be another San Diego salary dump candidate.

 

I don't see where Hosmer fits in with that length of a contract.  Myers could be a one & done, but would the clumsy OF work be worth it?  Hassell had a nice pro ball debut, but I don't know much else about him.

Quote

 

13. Paul DeJong

Wild Card Game blunders aside, Edmundo Sosa took over as the shortstop of the present for the Cardinals down the stretch, making DeJong expendable. His bat has gone backwards the last few years, though he still has power and remains an above-average defender at a premium position. Also, DeJong has an affordable contract, one that includes $15 million in guaranteed money from 2022-23, with club options for 2024 ($12.5 million) and 2025 ($15 million). Any team that believes they can get his bat back to its pre-2020 form undoubtedly views DeJong as a great buy-low opportunity.

Possible trade suitors: Angels, Astros, Phillies, Nationals, Tigers, Twins, Yankees. Houston might be the only team that could lose a big name shortstop this offseason and need to find a replacement. The Dodgers have Trea Turner to replace Corey Seager, the Rockies have Brendan Rodgers to replace Trevor Story, and neither Javier Báez nor Marcus Semien was playing shortstop for their previous team (Mets and Blue Jays, respectively). That said, shortstops are always in demand. There will be market for DeJong.

 

DeJong's bat has declined every season since his rookie year.  His BABIP, line drive/ground ball/fly ball rates were all awful last season.  Does he just need a trip to a decent eye doctor?

[sabretooth]

Even if Story's bat looks more like 2021 going forward than his earlier years, hes still a good deal at $25M per year, thanks to plus defense, and the potential that he can have a plus year with the bat at any time.

At age 28, his contract will likely take him beyond his prime years, but for at least the next couple of years he should be at least a 3 WAR player, with the realistic potential to be a 5 in any given year.  At SS, thats a near-cornerstone level player. 

For $25M per year, thats $5-8M per win, perfectly fine from a value standpoint, especially as a high level of production from SS is usually correlated with team success, as long as the other pieces are sound.