2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[Useful Idiot]

2 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

I couldn't agree more. A total hotdog.

It's really a shame, IMO, because if Ratko really likes Baez, I've got this strong suspicion that he's gonna get his wish.

Baez will go cheaper than Correa, and most likely Seager too. So Baez is just  like perfect cheese for Avila to pounce on.  Avila will stick his thumbs under his lapels and proclaim "See, I did just as I promised, a glaring hole that has been plaguing us for years is now filled"

And the shame of it is, the opportunity cost for the real star we will as the result miss out on.

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

It's really a shame, IMO, because if Ratko really likes Baez, I've got this strong suspicion that he's gonna get his wish.

Baez will go cheaper than Correa, and most likely Seager too. So Baez is just  like perfect cheese for Avila to pounce on.  Avila will stick his thumbs under his lapels and proclaim "See, I did just as I promised, a glaring hole that has been plaguing us for years is now filled"

And the shame of it is, the opportunity cost for the real star we will as the result miss out on.

I'll go back to what Lee said about Avila - he tells you what he's going to do. Avila has said repeatedly that he wants to build a lower strike out offense. I do think that will give them reservations about Baez --  but I suppose anything is possible given the right alignment of circumstances.

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

4/60? the guy is a 3 WAR player pitching (successfully) with 1/2 his games in Colorado. The analytics dept is basically nothing with the Rockies. Is there something more there? I don't know. Even if there isn't more, he would be a good addition IMO. Health and years are always the issue.

I'm not sure they want to invest that much into a SP until the SS situation is resolved. Maybe Al will pull off a trade to get us a SS?

[Longgone]

13 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

I could not agree more.  I'm concerned that Baez might be willing to sign for less than drunken sailor money if he's given opt out ability.He failed to impress after his trade, and might jump at an opportunity reprove himself.

Giving Avila an opportunity to sign cheap(er) than the top available talent, while claiming he's doing the "smart" thing.

I  remember the last time we had a former Cubbie shortstop,  and want nothing to do with Javy.

Hey, an upgrade is an upgrade, and Baez would be a huge upgrade. Is he the perfect player, no, but he's probably in the second tier of available ss this year with Story and after Correa, Semien and Seager.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Longgone

[Motor City Sonics]

Have we signed anyone yet?    COME ON ,   LETS DO THIS !  LETS GOOOOOOOOOOO 

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

Obviously you are easily impressed.  I think that Baez would be one of the worst choices we could possibly make.

And then there is the personality.

Cubs and Mets fans love Javy Baez’s personality and the majority of each fan base would be thrilled to have him back.

Edited November 8, 2021 by chasfh

[Cruzer1]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Cubs and Mets fans love Javy Baez’s personality and the majority of each fan base would be thrilled to have him back.

I can't stand his peripherals, the lifetime 4.8% bb rate and 29.3% k rate both stick out badly. The Tigers need better than that.

[chasfh]

This, as well as their tepid offer to Correa, essentially removes the Astros from the bidding war.

 

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:

I can't stand his peripherals, the lifetime 4.8% bb rate and 29.3% k rate both stick out badly. The Tigers need better than that.

Two-time All-Star. Three-time 29-homer hitter. Top ten defender at the most important position on the diamond. Plus-plus slide and tag skills. Lifetime WAR of 23.4 and still under 30. The Tigers could do worse than that.

[Tiger337]

22 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:

I can't stand his peripherals, the lifetime 4.8% bb rate and 29.3% k rate both stick out badly. The Tigers need better than that.

He has an unusual skill set.  If he keeps doing what he's doing, he'd be a good addition.  The problem is players who don't walk and who get a lot of their value from speed and defense tend to lose their value fast.  I'd be particularly wary of a long term deal with him.    

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

He has an unusual skill set.  If he keeps doing what he's doing, he'd be a good addition.  The problem is players who don't walk and who get a lot of their value from speed and defense tend to lose their value fast.  I'd be particularly wary of a long term deal with him.    

I wouldn't mind picking up four or five years of Javy. I think he's a good bet for 3-ish average WAR for that period. He may not be my first choice but I definitely wouldn't despair of the future of the team if we signed him.

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Two-time All-Star. Three-time 29-homer hitter. Top ten defender at the most important position on the diamond. Plus-plus slide and tag skills. Lifetime WAR of 23.4 and still under 30. The Tigers could do worse than that.

Is that what we’re playing for—we could do a lot worse? I want to do a lot better.

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Is that what we’re playing for—we could do a lot worse? I want to do a lot better.

That's fine, there are other options out there, too, and maybe we will get one of them. I'm not arguing that Baez is the best option—only that he is a good option.

[RatkoVarda]

FG comes in a 4/80 for Baez???

if that is the price, with no draft pick hit, Avila should sign him today

12. Javier Báez, SS/2B, Age 29

Contract Estimate

Type	Years	AAV	Total
Ben Clemens	4	$20.0 M	$80.0 M
Median Crowdsource	4	$20.0 M	$80.0 M
Avg Crowdsource	4.38	$19.9 M	$87.2 M

2022 Steamer Projections

PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
574	5.1%	31.2%	.242	.288	.443	.310	94	-2.9	3.6	2.0

Ben’s Take
You should want your team to sign Javier Báez. You might not know this to be the case; maybe you think you’re set in the middle infield, or don’t think his numbers are sustainable, or think his plate discipline will catch up to him soon. He struck out more than a third of the time this year and had one of the worst chase rates in baseball; it’s not hard to convince yourself that he might have some downside risk.

And yet, you should want your team to sign Báez. Baseball is a game, and I can’t think of many players who have more fun playing it or produce more memorable moments. Dazzling defensive plays, genius-level baseball IQ, wild swings at shoelace-high pitches that nonetheless produce home runs; Báez does it all, and he does it with an infectious grin. You’re going to watch a ton of your team’s games; those games will be more enjoyable with Báez playing in them.

Oh yeah: he’s good, too. Maybe he won’t replicate his offensive numbers again, but he’s a sterling defender with plus power. At only 28 (29 next season), he could be a force for years to come. That and the sheer joy he plays the game with? It’s a hard package to dislike.

Player Notes
Welcome to the winter’s most fascinating free agent. Báez’s track record is as excellent as his approach is horrifying, and that alone makes for a zesty profile. On top of that, Báez is also the only star free agent shortstop who comes without a qualifying offer attached, a significant consideration in the prospect-hugging era. Undoubtedly, many clubs will be spooked by his regressing plate discipline, particularly as he enters his 30s: Báez’s game only works because of his electric bat speed, and even the brightest physical attributes fade with time.

But anyone who can stomach potential snake eyes has plenty to gain if they roll boxcars. Toss out 2020, and Báez has averaged nearly 4.5 wins over his last three full seasons. That’s well ahead of Carlos Correa and Cory Seager’s production, and he doesn’t have any of the scary nagging injuries that have dogged those two in recent seasons. Wherever he goes, a short, front-loaded, high-AAV deal seems like the sweet spot for all parties. Teams like Detroit and Seattle, clubs with money to spend, wins to chase, and a good reason to hang on to their 2022 draft picks, should be very interested. – BG

 

[Jim Cowan]

I don't mind Baez.  If those other 3 guys don't want to come here, he's a heck of a lot better than the Castros and Niko and Short.  He would represent a team improvement power, speed, and defense.

[Sports_Freak]

I'll just throw this in here....

 

[KL2]

23 hours ago, casimir said:

We’ve seen this a bit in the NBA with one & one contracts in recent years.  Now, sure, the NBA and MLB are definitely different in terms of team structure as it relates to finances and construction, but the concept is out there in pro sports.

But there is ahuge difference in the sports. In the NBA the max contract is 4/5 years. In the MLB the standard contract for a big time signing is 8-12 years. So it makes way way way more sense on the NBA level and you aren'te leaving 200+ million on the table.

Really and apple to oranges .

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

He has an unusual skill set.  If he keeps doing what he's doing, he'd be a good addition.  The problem is players who don't walk and who get a lot of their value from speed and defense tend to lose their value fast.  I'd be particularly wary of a long term deal with him.    

I don't want him. I think his personality would be a negative distraction. Clubhouse chemistry is under-rated. And I'm not sure if even Hinch could control his child-like behavior. 

[casimir]

10 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I'll just throw this in here....

 

Its nice to see Brandon Inge allowed the use of his 15.

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I don't want him. I think his personality would be a negative distraction. Clubhouse chemistry is under-rated. And I'm not sure if even Hinch could control his child-like behavior. 

Do we have any evidence that Baez hurt the clubhouse chemistry of other teams?  Or is it just you not liking hotdogs?  

[casimir]

6 minutes ago, KL2 said:

But there is ahuge difference in the sports. In the NBA the max contract is 4/5 years. In the MLB the standard contract for a big time signing is 8-12 years. So it makes way way way more sense on the NBA level and you aren'te leaving 200+ million on the table.

Really and apple to oranges .

But we're still in the produce aisle.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Cruzer1 said:

I can't stand his peripherals, the lifetime 4.8% bb rate and 29.3% k rate both stick out badly. The Tigers need better than that.

 

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

He has an unusual skill set.  If he keeps doing what he's doing, he'd be a good addition.  The problem is players who don't walk and who get a lot of their value from speed and defense tend to lose their value fast.  I'd be particularly wary of a long term deal with him.    

That's where I am with Baez.  I wouldn't consider a long term deal for him.  But if the better SSs are off of the board and Baez would consider 4 years, it might be worthwhile.

[KL2]

4 minutes ago, casimir said:

But we're still in the produce aisle.

is it domed?

[Sports_Freak]

Good article this morning in the Free Press about Kreidler. They claim his defense is major league ready. His K rate is way too high but there may be hope for that. Many minor league pitchers don't throw strikes so a free swinger may go after bad pitches. And he's a young player, still learning. It's not like Baez who already has a MLB track record WRT strikeouts. We desperately need a defensive SS who can produce on offense too. But I'm not sure giving 1/4 billion $$ to one player would be a good idea. It really wouldn't surprise me If Avila pulled off a trade for a decent SS. Or if he went with Kreidler. It's a decision I'm glad I don't have to make!

[Sports_Freak]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Do we have any evidence that Baez hurt the clubhouse chemistry of other teams?  Or is it just you not liking hotdogs?  

Well, he won with the Cubs. So yeah, I guess it's just me who doesn't like the bat flips and other flamboyant antics.