chasfh Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I'd be happy with any of the top five and disappointed if they get shut out. I wouldn't say that I would not be as happy if we were to sign Correa, but I would be more nervous. In addition to oblong's legitimate concern about carrying his dead weight for the last several years of a 10+-year contract, he has also missed a month or more of games due to injuries on at least four separate occasions during his career. I don't think we know for sure that he is out of those woods. Sure, there's no guarantee Baez or Story, or any player for that matter, won't miss big chunks of seasons due to injury, but the difference is they have no established history of that, and Correa does. We can sign Correa, but we can't say we weren't warned. Edited November 9, 2021 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Useful Idiot Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: But the idea that Miggy's contract is some sort of impediment to spending is a red herring IMO I suspect there is a sort of "zero sum" perspective in payroll management. If you are paying several people $25+ million/year, and some of them are non-productive, I think the owner frequently is reluctant to spend even more trying to compensate for the unproductive ones. AKA "Designated hitter? I'm already paying $33 million for a designated hitter, why should I want another one?" that type thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 29 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: But the idea that Miggy's contract is some sort of impediment to spending is a red herring IMO I agree. His contract, as bad as it was, has probably not prevented them from spending. Having an old replacement level DH in the middle of the line-up for five years hasn't even been a big problem because they haven't been in contention. It could become one soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, chasfh said: I wouldn't say that I would not be as happy if we were to sign Correa, but I would be more nervous. In addition to oblong's legitimate concern about carrying his dead weight for the last several years of a 10+-year contract, he has also missed a month or more of games due to injuries on at least four separate occasions during his career. I don't think we know for sure that he is out of those woods. Sure, there's no guarantee Baez or Story, or any player for that matter, won't miss big chunks of seasons due to injury, but the difference is they have no established history of that, and Correa does. We can sign Correa, but we can't say we weren't warned. That's where I am with Correa, I'm not paying $40 million to a guy who plays 110 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 The best value out there is Semien, he is the Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo who plays 150 games, everybody in the organization loves him, and you get him for way less term and a bit less annual salary. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Offer Correa and Seager an opt out after 4 years. They have incentive to play really well and the Tigers pay for their most productive years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Tigermojo said: Offer Correa and Seager an opt out after 4 years. They have incentive to play really well and the Tigers pay for their most productive years. The main down side I see here is that if they kill it for us they opt out and begin killing it for someone else, and if they're so-so or worse they'll just re-up and we'll pay for their back half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 I probably should have known this, but B-R has a Stathead option to compare up to six players against one another, and for wither individual season, portions of seasons, or entire careers. So here are the five big shortstop free agents since 2018, all in one nifty screenshot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 43 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said: The best value out there is Semien, he is the Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo who plays 150 games, everybody in the organization loves him, and you get him for way less term and a bit less annual salary. The question with him is how long can play shortstop. His defensive numbers were way down in 2020 and he played mostly second base last year because of Bichette. He is also the oldest of the bunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said: The best value out there is Semien, he is the Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo who plays 150 games, everybody in the organization loves him, and you get him for way less term and a bit less annual salary. Or is Story the best value? Heck, maybe its Taylor? 2021-22 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions Quote 1. Carlos Correa. Ten years, $320MM. Tim Dierkes: Tigers / Steve Adams: Phillies / Anthony Franco: Tigers 2. Corey Seager. Ten years, $305MM. TD: Yankees / SA: Yankees / AF: Yankees 6. Marcus Semien. Six years, $138MM. TD: Red Sox / SA: Dodgers / AF: Angels 8. Trevor Story. Six years, $126MM. TD: Phillies / SA: Rangers / AF: Astros 12. Javier Baez. Five years, $100MM. TD: Rangers / SA: Tigers / AF: Rangers 16. Chris Taylor. Four years, $64MM. TD: Marlins / SA: Red Sox / AF: Mariners Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 What about offering Seager and Correa 10yr/320 million contracts paid 40/year for the first 5 years and 20/yr for the last five years and give them an opt out after 5. The player would be the highest yearly paid shortstop, have the security of a 320million contract and the option for another bite of the apple at a young age should they opt out. The Tigers get the best shortstop, pay a premium for the most productive years and then the salary reduces in half ( or most likely disappears) about the same time Tork, Greene, Mize, Scubal etc get expensive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: What about offering Seager and Correa 10yr/320 million contracts paid 40/year for the first 5 years and 20/yr for the last five years and give them an opt out after 5. The player would be the highest yearly paid shortstop, have the security of a 320million contract and the option for another bite of the apple at a young age should they opt out. The Tigers get the best shortstop, pay a premium for the most productive years and then the salary reduces in half ( or most likely disappears) about the same time Tork, Greene, Mize, Scubal etc get expensive. Do the Tigers need the best SS? I think they have a few holes to patch up, and zeroing in on Correa/Seager may prevent adequately addressing the other needs. Any of these SSs are going to be an upgrade over what we've seen out there the past few seasons. Make the smart choice there and get a couple of SPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Useful Idiot Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 If an owner committed to a payroll not to exceed the luxury tax threshold, and had $33 million /yr tied up in a .256/15/75 player who is also a defensive liability, how can it not have an impact on who they might sign trying to become more competitive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Cabrera was 30+ and fat when he signed his big deal and his contract still had two years to go, so it was unnecessary. Few wanted to say it at the time because they loved Cabrera, but that was a terrible contract and probably solely an ilitch signing. Signing Correa or Seager to a ten year deal would be risky, but not comparable to Cabrera. I would argue that it "was unnecessary" if you waited another year all players are likely to take it to FA. It's the same reason coaches don't want to have a one-year deal. See every College football coach with a contract under four years of Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Moneyball. Edited November 9, 2021 by KL2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Jim Cowan said: The best value out there is Semien, he is the Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo who plays 150 games, everybody in the organization loves him, and you get him for way less term and a bit less annual salary. I don't get your love of Semien. Fine player, but let's look at it. He has exaclty zero years with an OPS over .900. He has exaclty two years with an OPS+ above 100. He no longer plays shortstop, wasn't very good in 2020 and wasn't much until his 28 year old season. Not to mention he will be 31. What makes you think he's the best value/gonna sustain those two years compared to the otehr 8? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said: If an owner committed to a payroll not to exceed the luxury tax threshold, and had $33 million /yr tied up in a .256/15/75 player who is also a defensive liability, how can it not have an impact on who they might sign trying to become more competitive? it is really simply math; even with Miggy, they are about $130M under the luxury tax. his presence is not stopping them from signing anyone. put it another way: having $160M under the tax is the same as having $130M. the situation you describe does not apply to the Tigers. outside of Grossman, they wasted a lo last year dumpster diving, spending over $16M last year to retain or sign Norris, Urena, Tehern, Ramos, Mazara, JaCoby and got - Reece Olson for all that money. They could have signed Semien for $20M. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmitch55 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Correa has not touched his prime years. Not even 27 yet. An infield of Candy, Correa, Schoop, Tork, Barnhart. Are you kidding? Go get em. Hurry! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 hour ago, KL2 said: I would argue that it "was unnecessary" if you waited another year all players are likely to take it to FA. Cabrera was not likely to take it to FA given the ridiculous contract he was offered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 I prefer Correa or Seager as players but if we could get a Semien,Story or even Baez on a 4 or 5 year deal I think I like that option the most, especially if it comes at a lower AAV. Semien may not last at SS for more than a coupleyears before moving to 2b but Im cool with that. By then we will have a good idea on if Kriedler is legit and perhaps even Christian Santana. Plus with the smaller commitment it may allow us to go after a better SP and or reliever as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Cabrera was not likely to take it to FA given the ridiculous contract he was offered. I think you missed the point. You said since he had two years to go on the old contract that it was completely "uneccisary" to extend them. I disagree, if they didn't it would have put him a eyar from FA when they tried to extend them and he would have gone to FA. The Tigers weren't gonna let that happen, just like you don't let a coach that you want to keep getdown to the final year of his deal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said: it is really simply math; even with Miggy, they are about $130M under the luxury tax. his presence is not stopping them from signing anyone. put it another way: having $160M under the tax is the same as having $130M. the situation you describe does not apply to the Tigers. outside of Grossman, they wasted a lo last year dumpster diving, spending over $16M last year to retain or sign Norris, Urena, Tehern, Ramos, Mazara, JaCoby and got - Reece Olson for all that money. They could have signed Semien for $20M. A) Semien is one player the other guys are like 8 bodies. b) I don't get why people don't get this. They weren't trying to spend and win. It's silly to pay for a year of semien when you have little around him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, KL2 said: I think you missed the point. You said since he had two years to go on the old contract that it was completely "uneccisary" to extend them. I disagree, if they didn't it would have put him a eyar from FA when they tried to extend them and he would have gone to FA. The Tigers weren't gonna let that happen, just like you don't let a coach that you want to keep getdown to the final year of his deal My point was he still wouldn't have gone to free agency if they made the same offer a year later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Yeah guys regularly work out extensions the winter before they hit FA, theres no reason to think Cabrera wouldn't have done the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 5 hours ago, RatkoVarda said: any team that spends money on free agents is bound to have some dead weight by virtue of performance, health, or luck variation. The Rays once signed Pat Burrell as a FA and he tanked. The Yankees have a lot of dead weight. The Reds screwed themselves by signing too many high risk guys and now they are trying to reset. But the idea that Miggy's contract is some sort of impediment to spending is a red herring IMO Thank you for saying this and I agree. I realize that Chris I has to cut the checks for Miggy's bloated salary, but the idea that we have to have a bottom-dwelling payroll WITH Miggy's salary BECAUSE of Miggy's salary is complete BS. Furthermore, the whole idea that you can win with any consistency without taking significant financial risks is at heart of this stupid and pointless exercise in intentional losing since the second half of 2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Timmitch55 said: Correa has not touched his prime years. Not even 27 yet. An infield of Candy, Correa, Schoop, Tork, Barnhart. Are you kidding? Go get em. Hurry! Though I'm not a big fan of Barnhart, you're right, that would be a damn nice (and pretty young!) IF until Schoop's contract runs out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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