2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[sabretooth]

39 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Maybe it's because I am surrounded by entitled Red Sox fans, but I think Tigers fans tend to be too resigned to their team having a small payroll.  It doesn't have to be that way.    

The Detroit market is not a small-market.  It is one of the top 10 metro areas population and wealth-wise in the country.  If the goal is to build and sustain a winning team, there is no reason why we should not have a league-average payroll.

[sabretooth]

2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Barring any major setbacks whether it be injuries or performance based(like they look totally overmatched in Spring Training) I think Greene and Tork will both be up on Opening Day.  I'm sure the rules about call up time and getting that extra year of control will change in the new CBA but even if they don't I think it would still be in the Tigers best interest to have them on the Opening Day roster.

The reason being is that the Tigers are in a position where they are going to need every win they can get if they want to make the playoffs and delaying Greene and Tork's call up by a month may give them an extra year of control but could cost them a win or 2 and those wins may end up costing them a playoff spot. 

This is one area where I probably lean towards the conventional approach of sacrificing a little now for the extra year of control later.  I don't like it, but in the context of the current CBA and many other factors, it makes the most sense.

Edited November 16, 2021 by sabretooth

[sabretooth]

On 11/15/2021 at 8:55 AM, Cruzer1 said:

5 years, 77 million...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

I like this player, and I like this deal.  Get another pitcher like JV and I am a happy man vis-a-vis the rotation.

I admit that having the last connection to the 2006 team back again would be just freaking awesome....and I strongly suspect that JV will be a pretty effective pitcher this year too....and we need that along with Eduardo.

[gehringer_2]

55 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Look out, they might have a team payroll that approaches league average.....

Rodriquez and JV and a good SS would be a VERY nice offseason, especially compared to the crapfest of Alex Cobb and other spare parts I was starting to expect.

sportrac has them at $82M after Rodriguez. Say $25M for the SS and IDK - their arbitration awards might be what - $15M? That would be $122M. The league average last year was ~$128M IIRC. But considering they are going to have to (IMO) start locking up their young pitchers soon they will be well above whatever they spend this year pretty quickly.

[SoCalTiger]

19 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

The Detroit market is not a small-market.  It is one of the top 10 metro areas population and wealth-wise in the country.  If the goal is to build and sustain a winning team, there is no reason why we should not have a league-average payroll.

Without doing research I doubt Detroit metro is top 10 wealth wise in the USA. California alone probably has 4 or 5 greater wealth wise. I would guess closer to 20 to 25.

[1984Echoes]

18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

sportrac has them at $82M after Rodriguez. Say $25M for the SS and IDK - their arbitration awards might be what - $15M? That would be $122M. The league average last year was ~$128M IIRC. But considering they are going to have to (IMO) start locking up their young pitchers soon they will be well above whatever they spend this year pretty quickly.

Quick reminder:

We get a reset after 2023...

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

According to Michael Balko on Twitter, one MLB insider says Correa to the Tigers is a 'Done Deal".   

 

4 hours ago, Archie said:

I was listening to a sports talk radio show yesterday and they believe that Correa is already signed with Detroit and they are holding off on the announcement. I have a hard time believing that but maybe its true? 

 

Is this the same thing? Or are we on multiple sources now?

In other words:

WHERE IS MY CARLOS CORREA SIGNING?!?!?!

[1984Echoes]

35 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Other than Jeter, who they drafted #6 after going 71-91 in 1991 with the 6th highest payroll in baseball (which doesn't seem to correlate to tanking).....the rest of the Yankees dynasty team was definitely populated by guys drafted and acquired by means other than tanking.

My point has always been against tanking.  There are plenty of teams who had rough years (and may have tanked for a year or two) who then rebounded with the help of a top pick.....I don't agree with that kind of tanking as a deliberate strategy, but I understand that teams probably exploit losing seasons to "go for" top picks.

I also understand that getting a generational top-1st-round pick can really change a team's fortunes....however, ponder the Angels with Trout -- he's a great great great player and I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to have him on my team, but he hasn't produced the KL2 only-championships-matter outcome, and for that matter, they haven't even been that good as a team with him.

My entire point is that building a winner, especially a fairly sustainable winner (sustainable means different things to different people, I know), requires excellence in all phases of player acquisition, development, and the adept management of roster resources, payroll, front office talent, etc.  That's pretty obvious....and frankly, there just aren't any examples of excellent organizations successfully using extended tanking over more than a year or two as a strategy for building a winning organization and roster. 

What I said above is not some unique insight....but it seems to be entirely overlooked in the hype about how wonderful Tork and Greene will be for us, and consequently how we as fans should embrace losing (I never will) AND reject signing FAs to not-short-term deals; FAs with 4+ year contracts are absolutely a necessary component of building and sustaining a winner....anyone who says they aren't is ignoring reality.

Accordingly, I believe that if the Tigers become successful with Mize, Tork, and Greene, it will be because of these players AND all of the OTHER things the organization did to build and sustain a winner, including longer-term FA contracts.

A few comments on this:

1) You're anti-tanking stance seems a bit emotional. I don't mean that in a mean way but, more like an "I hate tanking!" statement.

2) I don't look at this as emotional, but rather, practical. Meaning... if a team has screwed up (empty farm system from a lack of draft and develop or otherwise (traded away ALL their good prospects)), then I don't think that team has much of a choice but to tank once their competitive vets are too old and... no longer competitive. I'm not ADVOCATING for tanking.. but in Detroit's case, we both had a bad draft and develop team AND DD had traded away any prospects with any worth. Basically an empty farm system with no real Draft & Develop skills/ coaches/ etc. in place to do a quick rebuild. So, if anything, I was RESIGNED to the fact that the Tigers were going to have to do a complete rebuild, including a real D&D team, since we weren't good at that, and we were going to have to go through a multi-year tank/ rebuild because... we had nothing in the minors. I mean, almost literally.

3) I also prefer competitive versus crap/ tanking years. But I also crave championships. And the basis for both competitive and Championship is what is near and dear to my heart: Draft & Develop. I want that more than anything else for Avila and this Tigers team. Because if they have D&D... we can remain competitive for a long time, and take our shots at Championships as the opportunity presents itself (if that's 7 out of 10 years with 2 "almost" years and 1 crappy/ reset year.. yeah, that's good...).

Bottom line is: I won't complain about the past 5 years because we were stuck: nothing in the farm system, and our D&D sucked. I hope we "never" (can never say never) have to go through that again for a long, long, time. But in order to avoid tanking, IMO, D&D is a MUST. 

I hope Avila has us set up for that.

Hinch has also expressed a desire... Maybe he takes over from Avila at some point and continues D&D par excellence.

[bobrob2004]

36 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I like this player, and I like this deal.  Get another pitcher like JV and I am a happy man vis-a-vis the rotation.

I admit that having the last connection to the 2006 team back again would be just freaking awesome....and I strongly suspect that JV will be a pretty effective pitcher this year too....and we need that along with Eduardo.

The only thing I question about Verlander is his stamina.  Would he be open to accepting a closer's role, like John Smoltz did after having Tommy John surgery? 

[Tiger337]

13 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

 

Is this the same thing? Or are we on multiple sources now?

In other words:

WHERE IS MY CARLOS CORREA SIGNING?!?!?!

It could be another Pudge Rodriguez situation where they are holding off on the signing pending a thorough physical.  Or it could be BS.  Where is Tigerfan76 and his 100 new threads on the same topic?  

[romad1]

26 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Without doing research I doubt Detroit metro is top 10 wealth wise in the USA. California alone probably has 4 or 5 greater wealth wise. I would guess closer to 20 to 25.

I had done some other research in the now-infamous gambling site formerly known as MTS in which I showed that Detroit was about a step below Boston in terms of market size for MLB franchises.  I think just behind us was St. Louis which has a large part of the Southern US still (basically SEC West)...which is not reflected here.   Also, Atlanta has a larger market than this as well for similar reasons (Basically SEC East). 

Quote

 

In the early part of the 21^st century, Major League Baseball finds itself the professional sport confined almost entirely to the largest consolidated statistical metropolitan areas (CSMAs) in the United States and Canada. While the other three major professional team sports in North America have numerous franchises in metropolitan areas with fewer than two million people, only three major league baseball teams are situated in such locales: the Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers.

In what follows, the size of the particular CSMA is given, together with the baseball team(s) in that area. American League teams are shown in red and National League teams in blue. Cities shown in black italics represent metropolitan areas without major league baseball, but home to NBA basketball, NFL football, and/or NHL hockey teams.

Markets of more than 10 million people
--------------------------------------------------------

21,199,865 New York Mets, New York Yankees
16,373,645 Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers

Markets of 5-10 million people
--------------------------------------------------------

9,157,540 Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
7,608,070 Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
7,039,362 Oakland Athletics, San Francisco Giants
6,188,463 Philadelphia Phillies
5,819,100 Boston Red Sox
5,456,428 Detroit Tigers
5,221,801 Texas Rangers

Markets of 3-5 million people
--------------------------------------------------------

4,682,897 Toronto Blue Jays
4,669,571 Houston Astros
4,112,198 Atlanta Braves
3,878,380 Florida Marlins
3,554,760 Seattle Mariners
3,426,350 Montreal, QC (NHL)
3,251,876 Arizona Diamondbacks

Markets of 2-3 million people
--------------------------------------------------------

2,968,806 Minnesota Twins
2,945,831 Cleveland Indians
2,813,833 San Diego Padres
2,603,607 St Louis Cardinals
2,581,506 Colorado Rockies
2,395,997 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2,358,695 Pittsburgh Pirates
2,265,223 Portland, OR (NBA)

Markets of 1-2 million people
--------------------------------------------------------

1,986,965 Vancouver, BC (NHL)
1,979,202 Cincinnati Reds
1,796,857 Sacramento, CA (NBA)
1,776,062 Kansas City Royals
1,689,572 Milwaukee Brewers
1,644,561 Orlando, FL (NBA)
1,607,486 Indianapolis, IN (NBA, NFL)
1,592,383 San Antonio, TX (NBA)
1,540,157 Columbus, OH (NHL)
1,499,293 Charlotte, NC (NBA, NFL)
1,337,726 New Orleans, LA (NBA, NFL)
1,333,914 Salt Lake City, UT (NBA)
1,231,311 Nashville, TN (NFL, NHL)
1,187,941 Raleigh, NC (NHL)
1,170,111 Buffalo, NY (NFL, NHL)
1,135.614 Memphis, TN (NBA)
1,100,491 Jacksonville, FL (NFL)
1,063,664 Ottawa, ON (NHL)

Markets of fewer than 1 million people
--------------------------------------------------------

951,395 Calgary, AB (NHL)
937,845 Edmonton, AB (NHL)
599,671 Green Bay, WI (NFL)

According to 2000 Census figures, the average American League market size is about 6.87 million people while the average National League market size is about 6.09 million. The combined average Major League Baseball market is about 5.29 million (smaller than for either league because the New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington-Baltimore, and San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland CSMAs are not counted twice). Thus, the average baseball market is larger than the average market for teams in any other sport, be it basketball (4.74 million), hockey (4.68 million), or football (4.07 million). The average NFL market is about 23% smaller than the average MLB market. The numbers are as follows:

5,293,083 Major League Baseball average market size
6,871,440 American League average market size
6,094,087 National League average market size

4,736,169 National Basketball Association average market size
4,681,258 National Hockey League average market size
4,073,346 National Football League average market size

 

 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It could be another Pudge Rodriguez situation where they are holding off on the signing pending a thorough physical.  Or it could be BS.  Where is Tigerfan76 and his 100 new threads on the same topic?  

anything is possible but I would put my money on the very top FAs like Correa and Seager and probably Scherzer, not being signed until after a CBA is in place.

[KL2]

6 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

The only thing I question about Verlander is his stamina.  Would he be open to accepting a closer's role, like John Smoltz did after having Tommy John surgery? 

oh no Verlander the closer talk again. 

[romad1]

I think the market size estimators continuously discount the strength of the Montreal market. 

[KL2]

2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I had done some other research in the now-infamous gambling site formerly known as MTS in which I showed that Detroit was about a step below Boston in terms of market size for MLB franchises.  I think just behind us was St. Louis which has a large part of the Southern US still (basically SEC West)...which is not reflected here.   Also, Atlanta has a larger market than this as well for similar reasons (Basically SEC East). 

 

Detroit ranks 47...ahead of Phoenix, Tampa, Los Angeles, miami. 

But for comapirson sake the averge pay in Detroit is 22K in NYC, 14th on the list, its 28K. I can tell you 28K gets you homeless in NYC and 22K in detroit can at least get you something.

I say this just to say measure markets by wealth is fool-hearty because big cities are gonna drive down the cost for a host of reasons. 

It's about TV sets and detroit ranks 14th. 

[sabretooth]

36 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Without doing research I doubt Detroit metro is top 10 wealth wise in the USA. California alone probably has 4 or 5 greater wealth wise. I would guess closer to 20 to 25.

I guess I should say GDP rather than wealth, since there is no comparable measurement for wealth....Detroits MSA (which is just the core 3 county area) is 14th in GDP behind Seattle and ahead of Minneapolis, and Detroits CSA (which includes the 9 county region, and thus is closer to the Tigers market) is 12th in GDP, ahead of Seattle.  We are solidly mid-market, far ahead of the small markets in every economic respect, and more than able to support a league average team financially.

[Tiger337]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

anything is possible but I would put my money on the very top FAs like Correa and Seager and probably Scherzer, not being signed until after a CBA is in place.

Is not signing early from a player or team viewpoint?  There have been reports of lots of teams pursuing the top free agents right now.  Of course, that could come from agents.  

[KL2]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Is not signing early from a player or team viewpoint?  There have been reports of lots of teams pursuing the top free agents right now.  Of course, that could come from agents.  

I would think its a bit of bird in the hand. Like E-Rod knows he has $77 million in the bank. If he holds on for the new CBA is that figure really going to change all that much? Maybe for someone a few extra, the new CBA is likely to impact guys like  players with 4 year time or veteran not prime age free agents. Those guys ar ealways gonna get theirs no matter the CBA. But, now E-Rod knows he gets $77 million in the bank. 

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Is not signing early from a player or team viewpoint?  There have been reports of lots of teams pursuing the top free agents right now.  Of course, that could come from agents.  

I think from the teams'. If you are going to give a guy $20M/yr, that's a garden variety contract and the conditions around it probably won't change pending whatever happens in the CBA. But I don't want to be 'making the market' with a deal where a change in the CBA actually could mean I haven't optimized my expenditure. And conversely if teams aren't anxious to bid, the top players are going to hold out till they do.

..Now of course Correa will sign tomorrow! 

Edited November 16, 2021 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

20 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

anything is possible but I would put my money on the very top FAs like Correa and Seager and probably Scherzer, not being signed until after a CBA is in place.

I don't think this is correct.

 

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

... There have been reports of lots of teams pursuing the top free agents right now...

I think this is correct.

From the players' point of view: better to have a contract before the CBA runs out then not. No contract when the squabbling starts over the CBA = NO PAY.

From the teams' perspective, especially from a team like Detroit that is trying to become competitive again: Better to "strike while the iron is hot". Meaning, get these players NOW, while they can. If other teams are waiting, then that is definitely to Detroit's advantage.

We have our 2022 catching problem resolved.

We have already signed our 2022 "4th starter innings eater with upside but not an ace" pitcher to solidify our starting rotation.

Sign our 2022 Superstar Shortstop and we are basically ready to go.

If there's a CBA strike/ owner's shutdown, those salaries are covered or reduced anyways, right? So why not sign those guys NOW, and the team will be happy, the fans will be happy, and of course, those players will be happy too (not hanging out there to dry...).

Just my 2 cents.

[1984Echoes]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think from the teams'. If you are going to give a guy $20M/yr, that's a garden variety contract and the conditions around it probably won't change pending whatever happens in the CBA. But I don't want to be 'making the market' with a deal where a change in the CBA actually could mean I haven't optimized my expenditure. And conversely if teams aren't anxious to bid, the top players are going to hold out till they do.

..Now of course Correa will sign tomorrow! 

From Detroit's perspective though: Any changes in the CBA are mostly going to be meaningless. They're at/ near the bottom in salaries so... not much is going to change for them.

CBA-wise, that is...

Edited November 16, 2021 by 1984Echoes

[romad1]

22 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Detroit ranks 47...ahead of Phoenix, Tampa, Los Angeles, miami. 

But for comapirson sake the averge pay in Detroit is 22K in NYC, 14th on the list, its 28K. I can tell you 28K gets you homeless in NYC and 22K in detroit can at least get you something.

I say this just to say measure markets by wealth is fool-hearty because big cities are gonna drive down the cost for a host of reasons. 

It's about TV sets and detroit ranks 14th. 

The Detroit Tiger MLB market is not the Detroit media market.  

[sabretooth]

45 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

A few comments on this:

1) You're anti-tanking stance seems a bit emotional. I don't mean that in a mean way but, more like an "I hate tanking!" statement.

2) I don't look at this as emotional, but rather, practical. Meaning... if a team has screwed up (empty farm system from a lack of draft and develop or otherwise (traded away ALL their good prospects)), then I don't think that team has much of a choice but to tank once their competitive vets are too old and... no longer competitive. I'm not ADVOCATING for tanking.. but in Detroit's case, we both had a bad draft and develop team AND DD had traded away any prospects with any worth. Basically an empty farm system with no real Draft & Develop skills/ coaches/ etc. in place to do a quick rebuild. So, if anything, I was RESIGNED to the fact that the Tigers were going to have to do a complete rebuild, including a real D&D team, since we weren't good at that, and we were going to have to go through a multi-year tank/ rebuild because... we had nothing in the minors. I mean, almost literally.

3) I also prefer competitive versus crap/ tanking years. But I also crave championships. And the basis for both competitive and Championship is what is near and dear to my heart: Draft & Develop. I want that more than anything else for Avila and this Tigers team. Because if they have D&D... we can remain competitive for a long time, and take our shots at Championships as the opportunity presents itself (if that's 7 out of 10 years with 2 "almost" years and 1 crappy/ reset year.. yeah, that's good...).

Bottom line is: I won't complain about the past 5 years because we were stuck: nothing in the farm system, and our D&D sucked. I hope we "never" (can never say never) have to go through that again for a long, long, time. But in order to avoid tanking, IMO, D&D is a MUST. 

I hope Avila has us set up for that.

Hinch has also expressed a desire... Maybe he takes over from Avila at some point and continues D&D par excellence.

I don't really agree with the emotional versus practical distinction.  You don't follow teams for practical reasons, you follow them for a whole host of reasons, including wanting to see a winner, you remember watching games with your dad, you like watching them with friends and family, et cetera et cetera...any reasonable analysis of what you want to see in sports or in your team has a necessary emotional component to it.

I also don't really agree with the characterization of DD's tenure as if they traded away long term success for short term gain. 

They traded away a lot of prospects, but none of them excelled at the major league level with the exception of Eugenio Suarez, which was an epic bad trade, and Miller, which was an epic great trade.   Bottom line is that if DD had never traded away any prospects they would have just had a less than stellar team.

You could say that they sucked at development, and I would not argue with that;  However I dont see a lot of evidence yet that they have markedly improved in developing talent since DDs departure,  At least as it regards players who are not top flight draft picks to begin with.  Maybe they are improving in this area, time will tell.

The bottom line is that with DD we had two years of turning the corner (04 - 05), followed by 6 years of playoff competitiveness (06, 07, 11, 12, 13, 14) with an unexpected fallback in 08 and 09 and a retool in 10.   From 04 to 14 it could reasonably be said that the Tigers were either trying for the playoffs or retrieve or retooling for the playoffs every year.

I also would say that the examples of excessive spending that we saw under DD (Willis' contract, Miggys extension, JVs extension, the extent of Princes contract) may have been examples of the owner's approach in these cases than anything else.  In any case, I dont see how these huge contracts were examples of the team trying to compete for the playoffs in the short term.

Edited November 16, 2021 by sabretooth

[RatkoVarda]

NBA got a cap on contract length years ago and then recently got another one pushed through.

does not sound like that is a core MLB issue, but possible that they ask for a 8 year cap which would impact Seagar and Correa if they don't sign pre-lock out

 

[romad1]

59 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Detroit ranks 47...ahead of Phoenix, Tampa, Los Angeles, miami. 

But for comapirson sake the averge pay in Detroit is 22K in NYC, 14th on the list, its 28K. I can tell you 28K gets you homeless in NYC and 22K in detroit can at least get you something.

I say this just to say measure markets by wealth is fool-hearty because big cities are gonna drive down the cost for a host of reasons. 

It's about TV sets and detroit ranks 14th. 

47?