2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[Tenacious D]

Why is Baez the consolation prize?  I’d rate Story and Semien higher if he whiff on Correa.

Also, I don’t think there a lot of teams that need a SS that will shell out $200 million for one.

[Jim Cowan]

I'd be very happy with Semien too.   I like him and Baez both, because they are in the lineup every day.  And you should be able to get them for shorter term, without as many dead years at the end.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

I would love love love getting Correa or Seager, and Semien or Baez would be a very nice upgrade to be sure....but my hopes are on Story....his age, health, power, and defense are all good, and whoever signs him might get a bit of a discount due to the perception that he will fall off precipitously after leaving the Rockies (which I don't think will be the case).

Story and Baez are a fair comp. Baez hits the ball further than Story but not more often, and I'd rate Baez' arm as better than Story's  - and he's accumulated a bit more Rrds. So probably you'll get a little more D with Baez but more OBP with Story. In the past I would have said that the Tigers would shy aware from a guy with Javy's personality, but unlike a Leyland or Gardenhire, I'll guess Hinch would not have a problem with a guy like Javy.

Interestingly, I saw a report from a couple years back  (2018?) that rated Baez and Schoop as the two fastest DP pivots in the league at that time.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

I think Correa gets at least 10 years and over $300M.

I don't know what Baez will get, but it shouldn't be $250M.  I think that's way too much for him.  I definitely wouldn't want the Tigers to go more than 4 years for him.  I saw an estimate of 5/$100M for him.  I think that's probably reasonable.

I thought I heard that Correa's 'people' have it out there that he wants no less than what Lindor got  - which was 341/10

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

I think Correa gets at least 10 years and over $300M.

I don't know what Baez will get, but it shouldn't be $250M.  I think that's way too much for him.  I definitely wouldn't want the Tigers to go more than 4 years for him.  I saw an estimate of 5/$100M for him.  I think that's probably reasonable.

I'd be happy to take any of the three after Correa and Seager if you can do it for 5 yrs and I almost don't care what the AAV would be. I wouldn't blink at even 150 over 5 for Story or Baez. You can afford the AAV when you are winning. I know there is a view that money in the out years is less important because of inflation et al, and that is true to some degree, but the high salaries for guys who aren't producing ( a la Cabrera ) keep bad teams bad longer, and as a fan that is what I want to avoid.

[Tenacious D]

32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I thought I heard that Correa's 'people' have it out there that he wants no less than what Lindor got  - which was 341/10

Lindor’s timing was better.  The Mets, under  new ownership, wanted to make a splash and had the resources.  Also, Lindor, prior to last season, was the better player.  Looking across MLB, I don’t see a team, with the need, that will give Correa $30M+ for 10 seasons.  Even the Yankees.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Tenacious D

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Lindor’s timing was better.  The Mets, under  new ownership, wanted to make a splash and had the resources.  Also, Lindor, prior to last season, was the better player.  Looking across MLB, I don’t see a team, with the need, that will give Correa $30M+ for 10 seasons.  Even the Yankees.

if that's true it could suck for us because that means the market will probably end up frozen as Correa holds out for something no-one wants to give him.

[RandyMarsh]

30 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'd be happy to take any of the three after Correa and Seager if you can do it for 5 yrs and I almost don't care what the AAV would be. I wouldn't blink at even 150 over 5 for Story or Baez. You can afford the AAV when you are winning. I know there is a view that money in the out years is less important because of inflation et al, and that is true to some degree, but the high salaries for guys who aren't producing ( a la Cabrera ) keep bad teams bad longer, and as a fan that is what I want to avoid.

I agree, if I can get one of the top guys for 5 years I wouldn't care what the AAV is. We're going to have plenty of money to spare the next few years while are young guys are still cheap and Cabrera's contract comes off the books but assuming the young guys produce and progress like we hope in 4 to 5 years they are going to start getting expensive so at that point payroll will start to become an issue.

[SoCalTiger]

55 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'd be happy to take any of the three after Correa and Seager if you can do it for 5 yrs and I almost don't care what the AAV would be. I wouldn't blink at even 150 over 5 for Story or Baez. You can afford the AAV when you are winning. I know there is a view that money in the out years is less important because of inflation et al, and that is true to some degree, but the high salaries for guys who aren't producing ( a la Cabrera ) keep bad teams bad longer, and as a fan that is what I want to avoid.

I agree with this especially if we can actually develop a shortstop during that time so that $ can then be allocated to keeping some key core players that will be nearing or at Free Agency. 

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Story and Baez are a fair comp. Baez hits the ball further than Story but not more often, and I'd rate Baez' arm as better than Story's  - and he's accumulated a bit more Rrds. So probably you'll get a little more D with Baez but more OBP with Story. In the past I would have said that the Tigers would shy aware from a guy with Javy's personality, but unlike a Leyland or Gardenhire, I'll guess Hinch would not have a problem with a guy like Javy.

Interestingly, I saw a report from a couple years back  (2018?) that rated Baez and Schoop as the two fastest DP pivots in the league at that time.

I guess I'd feel more comfortable with a long-term deal with a guy whose skills will likely age a little better.  People with decent on-base skills age better I think (re: Grossman, Becker, Tony Phillips, etc.).

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

I'd be very happy with Semien too.   I like him and Baez both, because they are in the lineup every day.  And you should be able to get them for shorter term, without as many dead years at the end.

You simply have to be prepared for Semien to turn into a pumpkin again (re: below average hitter), and at 32 years old, he's not likely to be an above average defender for long either....so you could have a mediocre hitter and defender with a long/large premium contract. 

I don't mind big contracts at all, but they have to come with big production and/or defense, and I doubt that Semien will provide plus hitting production for long (though I wouldn't be surprised to see him slug well for a year or three), and I'm not so sure going forward that the defense would be plus either.

Don't get me wrong, I'd much much much rather have him than anyone else in the organization for the next couple of years, but I'd really rather if they are going to reach for a big FA that they get one of the younger guys with more established plus performance levels. 

[sabretooth]

So I know I'm being repetitive, but just to sum up, I would be happy with any of the top guys....basically in this order/price:

- Correa - 10/300

- Seager - 10/250

- Story - 7/175

- Semien - 5/125

- Baez - 5/125

I am hoping they get Story, as Correa and Seagers injury histories worry me, especially with the gi-normous commitments that they will require.

I'm afraid that Baez's skills (speed, defense) are going to disappear as he hits 30 years of age, and his remaining skills (some power) won't be enough to make him a good SS.

Semien has had two amazing seasons, but at his age, it's easy to imagine that he will turn into a pumpkin again, especially after he signs the deal for the rest of his career.

Story I think will get a bit of a discount because everybody assumes that his Coors/Road splits mean that he will be a bad hitter away from Coors.

The history of hitters going to and leaving Coors as Rockies players is that they adapt to the "straighter" pitches in the high altitude for their 81 home games...but this has a negative effect on their ability to square up the ball away from Coors...so their Home (Coors)/Road splits widen quite a bit.

Then, when they go to another team, they re-adapt to normal home-park conditions, and their Home/Road splits become more normal.

Their overall stats after they leave the Rockies stay about the same, though they tend to drop some HRs as they hit fewer FBs.

I think Story's hitting, defense, age, health (which is a big plus vs. Correa and Seager) and likely discount would make him the ideal guy.

Edited November 20, 2021 by sabretooth

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I guess I'd feel more comfortable with a long-term deal with a guy whose skills will likely age a little better.  People with decent on-base skills age better I think (re: Grossman, Becker, Tony Phillips, etc.).

It's a fair point, but remember we are talking SS and deterioration of D may be just as bad as deterioration of O. Javy has really extreme fast twitch, he probably has more quickness to give up before his D suffers than any of the other guys. Maybe he does give up more with the bat but maybe he gives it back to you by being able to stay at short so the value proposition evens out.

Obviously projecting any 29 yr old baseball player out 5 yrs is no better than trying to divine chicken entrails. All that matters is how Avila is weighing it all.

[sabretooth]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's a fair point, but remember we are talking SS and deterioration of D may be just as bad as deterioration of O. Javy has really extreme fast twitch, he probably has more quickness to give up before his D suffers than any of the other guys. Maybe he does give up more with the bat but maybe he gives it back to you by being able to stay at short so the value proposition evens out.

Obviously projecting any 29 yr old baseball player out 5 yrs is no better than trying to divine chicken entrails. All that matters is how Avila is weighing it all.

Yeah....some other things that really bug me about Baez:

- he dropped 20 doubles (from 38 to 18) from 2019 to 2021 and added 28 Ks, with no corresponding increase in HRs.

- he has a very low LD rate (under 20%) every year, and also a low FB rate, a low LA (10), and a lot of GBs (usually around 50%)....add in the massive Ks and very low BBs and he has about as bad a hitting approach as you can possibly imagine.  Once his skills diminish a little bit his remaining area of reliable offensive production (pretty much all HRs) could just disappear.   

He's a lot lot lot better than what we have, but I just cannot get comfortable with him as THE solution, especially if we have a shot at Correa/Seager/Story/Semien.

[sabretooth]

...and it's not like Baez has eye popping defensive stats at SS every year...I have no doubt he's a very fine talent defensively, but it just doesn't seem to me that he is a sure thing to deliver anything year-to-year except above-average HRs for a SS.

I will give him this -- he plays 140+ games every year.  He and Story don't miss many games....and up to this point, Semien has been incredible in that regard.

[gehringer_2]

39 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

...and it's not like Baez has eye popping defensive stats at SS every year...I have no doubt he's a very fine talent defensively, but it just doesn't seem to me that he is a sure thing to deliver anything year-to-year except above-average HRs for a SS.

I will give him this -- he plays 140+ games every year.  He and Story don't miss many games....and up to this point, Semien has been incredible in that regard.

tea leaf reading wise, I would guess Story is the guy that Avila would most like as 2nd choice. 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

tea leaf reading wise, I would guess Story is the guy that Avila would most like as 2nd choice. 

With Javy being #1?

[Motor City Sonics]

Remember when DD left and every single trade AA made seemed to involve a shortstop (Lugo, Candelario, Alcantara, Paredes, Jose King), yet none of them wound up working out as our shortstop.    Interesting. 

[Motor City Sonics]

2 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Remember when DD left and every single trade AA made seemed to involve a shortstop (Lugo, Candelario, Alcantara, Paredes, Jose King), yet none of them wound up working out as our shortstop.    Interesting. 

Sorry, I thought Candelario was thought of as a potential shortstop. 

[gehringer_2]

47 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

With Javy being #1?

no - I would still put Correa 1st on their list, even if they know have no chance to land him. Then Story then the rest. Avila loves him some OBP so I'd guess Javy is not that high on his list. But in the end we know the desirability of deal will probably trump the desirability of the player for any of the 5.

[Tiger337]

One thing the Tigers absolutely need to improve is defense.  With a lot of young starters, they don't want to screw things up with sub-par defense.  So, as good as a hitter Seager is, I think they might stay away him.    

 

 

[Tenacious D]

28 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

One thing the Tigers absolutely need to improve is defense.  With a lot of young starters, they don't want to screw things up with sub-par defense.  So, as good as a hitter Seager is, I think they might stay away him.    

 

 

Many are speculating that Seager will need to move to 3B at some point.

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Many are speculating that Seager will need to move to 3B at some point.

he would seem to be the fit for the Yankees, who need to care less about defense playing in the Bronx bandbox.

[SoCalTiger]

Seager would hit 40 bombs hitting in that park with the short right field. He has to be their # 1 target.

[Archie]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

no - I would still put Correa 1st on their list, even if they know have no chance to land him. Then Story then the rest. Avila loves him some OBP so I'd guess Javy is not that high on his list. But in the end we know the desirability of deal will probably trump the desirability of the player for any of the 5.

I hope they can pull off signing Correa.  I wouldn't mind Seager either but I haven't heard anything about him and the Tigers talking like we have Correa and Semien.  I just can't get excited about Semien, Story or Baez.