2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[1984Echoes]

18 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

So you would struggle with having Marcus Semien or Javier Baez ...

Well... let me rephrase what I said above:

1) Correa or BUST!

2) Well, not really. If we can't get Correa, I want Story.

3) Those guys are #1 and #2 on my list. And no one else is close. But yeah, I'll take any upgrade over our current situation, even if that means Taylor, Semien, Baez, whomever.... But I'm not really happy that we couldn't land a top 2 choice for this team. Glad for the upgrade, but disappointed in the team's chair (musical chairs) that they end up with.

Until that is... whomever is playing SS for us next year gets us on a real nice winning streak because of defense and some O...

But really, I'd like Correa #1. And Story #2. Those are my two "I want" guys versus the other "consolation prize" guys.

[1984Echoes]

15 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm still liking the 3 year opt out option...

I would prefer doing the opposite:

No opt outs, and make the last 3 years contingent on games played. If he plays 140 game or more in year 6, or 260 games in years 5 & 6, the next year vests. If he plays less games than required, the team can buy out the last 3 years at $8mm per. So $24 Mill if the contract has become an albatross. Same conditions for each following year (and declining # of buyout years).

That protects the back end of the contract against injury.

The frontloading is fine... In fact, pay $35 Mill the next three years, and then decline the remaining 7. Pay less for older years. Pay less when Mize-Skubal-Manning-Tork-Greene are all under consideration for expensive contract extensions (provided they perform over the next 4 or so years as desired...).

I don't want him to opt out. I want him at SS. If he slows down and gets pushed to 2B because we have some hot prospect coming up... fine by me. And if he gets injured too often... we have the last 3 years we can get out of if needed...

[Tenacious D]

There will be few suitors for Correa, if his rumored demands are true.  All he needs are two, though.  He is not going to be making concessions—he has the leverage.  I suspect he will get close to 10 years and $300M.  And he will insist on a 2 or 3 year opt-out and will get it.

And I’m good with the Tigers giving it to him. I’ll take my chances on his age 35-37 years.  Athletes are better conditioned and will continue to be, as medical technology improves.

[gehringer_2]

28 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Athletes are better conditioned and will continue to be, as medical technology improves.

I'd accept that logic in any sport except baseball. The neuro-response time to manage hitting MLB pitching degrades as a matter of the aging process and the clock is pretty much genetically programmed for each player. You can be in absolutely perfect health at 34 but still lose your ability to wait long enough to pull the trigger on a 97 mph heater that the slider gets you.

Edited November 21, 2021 by gehringer_2

[Tigermojo]

I think Correa is still number one on Detroit's list but they don't want to bid against themselves either.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Tigermojo said:

I think Correa is still number one on Detroit's list but they don't want to bid against themselves either.

No doubt. That is likely why you see the Tigers more active earlier than most teams. You get the idea they make their offers and if they are refused they move on to their next target. But a situation like this where several guys are waiting for one to establish the market is probably frustrating Avila's preference to getting a deal done quickly.

[1984Echoes]

Especially if you're targeting Correa as your #1 option. His agent can string all these teams along trying to get that bidding war going...

[casimir]

On 11/20/2021 at 9:37 AM, sabretooth said:

His defensive numbers aren't much worse than Grossman's.....I'd rather have better defense too, but looking in the bargain bin for guys with both a bat and a glove and upside is a bit hopeful.  Clint's about the best guy on the tiles that you're going to find.

How many bad gloves do you want to tolerate in a 3 man OF?

[casimir]

On 11/20/2021 at 11:56 AM, gehringer_2 said:

I thought I heard that Correa's 'people' have it out there that he wants no less than what Lindor got  - which was 341/10

I think it’s in the neighborhood there.  Whether it’s under or over, it’s well above coupon cutting territory.

[Tenacious D]

45 minutes ago, casimir said:

How many bad gloves do you want to tolerate in a 3 man OF?

I’m hoping for Greene (LF) and Hill (CF) getting the majority of playing time next season. Both would be huge defensive upgrades.

[gehringer_2]

55 minutes ago, casimir said:

I think it’s in the neighborhood there.  Whether it’s under or over, it’s well above coupon cutting territory.

Damn. I though maybe Al could have saved enough S&H Green Stamps.

 

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

How many bad gloves do you want to tolerate in a 3 man OF?

No more than 3...

 

 

...sorry, I am seeing Clint as a semi regular at most....Grossman will probably be gone after 2022 anyway...

I do agree that having plus OF defense is desirable..especially with a young staff.

Edited November 22, 2021 by sabretooth

[casimir]

9 hours ago, sabretooth said:

No more than 3...

Touche.

[Motor City Sonics]

11 hours ago, sabretooth said:

No more than 3...

 

 

...sorry, I am seeing Clint as a semi regular at most....Grossman will probably be gone after 2022 anyway...

I do agree that having plus OF defense is desirable..especially with a young staff.

I didn't mean Clint Frazier for us, but I think someone could give him a real shot. We have a couple of our own versions of him right now with Reyes and Dazzer.    He can get over the Vertigo issues.  I did when I had it.   He struggled early - in New York - for the Yankees...............that's a lot of pressure.  I think a mellower place without Yankee expectations might do him well.  I still think he can be a good player.     He did have a .394 OBP playing in 2/3rds of their games in 2020.   He also was on a 20+ home run pace that year.     He could flourish with a team like the A's or Rangers.    In a place like New York if you get off to a bad start, it can snowball really fast.  

[bobrob2004]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I didn't mean Clint Frazier for us, but I think someone could give him a real shot. We have a couple of our own versions of him right now with Reyes and Dazzer.    He can get over the Vertigo issues.  I did when I had it.   He struggled early - in New York - for the Yankees...............that's a lot of pressure.  I think a mellower place without Yankee expectations might do him well.  I still think he can be a good player.     He did have a .394 OBP playing in 2/3rds of their games in 2020.   He also was on a 20+ home run pace that year.     He could flourish with a team like the A's or Rangers.    In a place like New York if you get off to a bad start, it can snowball really fast.  

Willi Castro had a .381 OBP in 2020 and was also on pace for about 20 home runs.  I don't think we can realistically rely on any stat in 2020.  

The main issue with a guy like Frazier is consistency.  Late bloomers like J.D. Martinez and Chris Taylor are a rarity.  Sure, someone will likely take a shot at him, but I wouldn't bet any money that he will "flourish."  There's a more realistic chance that'll he'll hit like Elvis Andrus, but without the speed there isn't much value in that.  

[chasfh]

On 11/20/2021 at 7:36 AM, buddha said:

i'd rather pay $300 million for correa than $250 million for baez because correa is better than baez.

No one is paying $250 million for Baez.

[chasfh]

On 11/20/2021 at 8:57 AM, sabretooth said:

I would love love love getting Correa or Seager, and Semien or Baez would be a very nice upgrade to be sure....but my hopes are on Story....his age, health, power, and defense are all good, and whoever signs him might get a bit of a discount due to the perception that he will fall off precipitously after leaving the Rockies (which I don't think will be the case).

It's understandable that people be concerned about Story's Coors/road split, but FWIW, I have seen articles with research concluding that once a hitter leaves the Rockies, his home-road splits stabilize some and his overall performance is not as bad as his road splits as a Rockie (Rocky?) would suggest they would be.

Which makes sense to me: as a Rockie, you play half your games in this extreme environment and half outside it. But even more crucially, throughout the season, you will play a string of games in the most extreme environment, then go play a string of games in non-extreme environments, and basically as soon as you figure out how to adjust to that, you're right back home in the extreme environment. But once you move to another team, your home and road environments are likely to be similar or even alike, so you don't have to go through constant back-and-forth adjustments all season long. This specific environmental factor becomes a problem only once you go to Denver as a visitor, and as a Tiger, that'll happen maybe, what, once in six years, tops?

So the Coors Effect, such as it is, shouldn't be a problem at all if we sign him.

[chasfh]

On 11/20/2021 at 4:23 PM, Tiger337 said:

One thing the Tigers absolutely need to improve is defense.  With a lot of young starters, they don't want to screw things up with sub-par defense.  So, as good as a hitter Seager is, I think they might stay away him.    

 

 

This is especially true since three of our projected starters profile as being in the bottom quintile of K%. If we're going to rely on pitch-to-contact guys for a third or more of our innings, we need guys out there who can pick it.

[gehringer_2]

I think as people get a chance to look more closely Story does tend to keep looking better. Initially one knock was that '21 was a down year and could be the beginning of the end for him age wise, but then you break down the game logs and you see after he got over some bumps and bruises mid-season he really tore it up down the stretch in August and Sept - easily exceeding his lifetime OPS over his last 230 PA.

Edited November 22, 2021 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

On 11/21/2021 at 12:56 AM, RandyMarsh said:

Im still liking the 3 year opt out option, I think Correa is going to be really good short term so if he indeed is he will likely opt out for another contract especially if we front load it. Say we sign him to 10/300 but the first 3 years are at 35 million a year. That would mean that when his opt out comes he would be due 7/195, while that is still a ton of money if he indeed is a star the next 3 years like I suspect he is going to be he would command much more than that in 3 years as only a 30 year star SS that has now put up in this scenario several straight elite seasons.

It's definitely a risk though cause if he doesn't play like a star, particularly that 3rd year we're likely stuck with him but I think if all goes well this could be the best outcome for the Tigers. 

If we were to give Correa early opt-outs, how good would he have to do to beat a $32MM or so AAV on the remaining seven or eight or six or whatever years? If he has a few 5- or even 6-win seasons—a WAR level he has yet to exceed in this, his likely career peak—will there be teams lining up to give him yet another 8-10 years at $40MM or so AAV? That seems really unlikely to me.

I gotta believe that if we sign Correa to 10/3XX, he's going to be ours all the way to the end. For more better than worse, hopefully.

[chasfh]

On 11/21/2021 at 9:48 AM, Archie said:

I would rather they go with a second tier SS than overpay for one of the others especially for a long time.  There was talk about A. Simmons being available and I think I would take him for a year or maybe two.

On 11/21/2021 at 9:52 AM, Tiger337 said:

I would stay far away from a 31-year-old defensive specialist with a .558 OPS.  

Not only that, but the team is at the point where we should not be filling the most critical need we have with any player for only a year or two.

 

 

[John_Brian_K]

On 11/20/2021 at 12:04 PM, gehringer_2 said:

I'd be happy to take any of the three after Correa and Seager if you can do it for 5 yrs and I almost don't care what the AAV would be. I wouldn't blink at even 150 over 5 for Story or Baez. You can afford the AAV when you are winning. I know there is a view that money in the out years is less important because of inflation et al, and that is true to some degree, but the high salaries for guys who aren't producing ( a la Cabrera ) keep bad teams bad longer, and as a fan that is what I want to avoid.

I have been preaching this all over for the past few weeks.  100%

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Not only that, but the team is at the point where we should not be filling the most critical need we have with any player for only a year or two.

 

 

Well, maybe if we had a Wander Franco in A ball this year but right - otherwise point taken.

Edited November 22, 2021 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, KL2 said:

It's not a video game. 

Those guys aren't taking these short little deals that are crazy team friendly. 

If you've ever played OOTP, you'd know those guys wouldn't take crazy team-friendly offers in that video game, either.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Well, maybe if we had a Wander Franco in A ball this year but right - otherwise point taken.

We don't have anything remotely like that, which is why I didn't bother offering it up as a contingency.