2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[sabretooth]

  On 11/29/2021 at 11:22 AM, Tenacious D said:

If we sign Ray, would the Tigers use Mize or Skubal to get their next SS from a team that has minor league options, ie, Yanks and Padres?

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Mize could be the next Rick Porcello (high GB%, pretty effective, always more upside) or the next Verlander, if he can use his Splitter to bolster his K rate from 7 ish to 9 ish.  The mystery should enhance his tradd value, but for many reasons (including the fact that he wad a 1st overall pick, and they dont want to be seen as selling out on him), I dont think they consider him tradeable at this point.

[mtutiger]

Hmmm

[Motor City Sonics]

   

[Motor City Sonics]

Way too quiet,  something is brewing.    Something big.   

[CMRivdogs]

  On 11/29/2021 at 2:34 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

Way too quiet,  something is brewing.    Something big.   

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Way too much Sonheim this weekend

 

[mtutiger]

 

[1984Echoes]

  On 11/29/2021 at 11:22 AM, Tenacious D said:

If we sign Ray, would the Tigers use Mize or Skubal to get their next SS from a team that has minor league options, ie, Yanks and Padres?

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Manning.

[chasfh]

A lot of Robbie Ray’s future success is going to be tied up in whether he can keep his career low BB rate as low as it was last year. But even if he does, one big red flag is how much luck factored into his Cy Young success this season. His .268 BABIP ranks 9th luckiest out of 39 qualified starters, but even more starkly, his strand rate of 90.1% is the highest full-season rate in big league history. These two data points are a key reason his RA9-WAR, which reflects actual on-field results, is 7.1, while his regular WAR, which is predictive based on fielding-independent results, is only 3.9. That’s a big enough difference that I would be cautious in taking a $200MM chance on him.

[gehringer_2]

  On 11/29/2021 at 3:12 PM, chasfh said:

A lot of Robbie Ray’s future success is going to be tied up in whether he can keep his career low BB rate as low as it was last year. But even if he does, one big red flag is how much luck factored into his Cy Young success this season. His .268 BABIP ranks 9th luckiest out of 39 qualified starters, but even more starkly, his strand rate of 90.1% is the highest full-season rate in big league history. These two data points are a key reason his RA9-WAR, which reflects actual on-field results, is 7.1, while his regular WAR, which is predictive based on fielding-independent results, is only 3.9. That’s a big enough difference that I would be cautious in taking a $200MM chance on him.

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good take

Beware one year wonders.

(and Rick-Cy-Young-Porcello says 'Hi')

Edited November 29, 2021 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

  On 11/29/2021 at 3:07 PM, 1984Echoes said:

Manning.

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I didn't list him because I'm not sure he would command a top SS prospect, but ideally he'd be the one you trade.  I was thinking about guys who are blocked (CJ Abrams/Padres) or could be had based on their teams plans (Anthony Volpe, Oswald Perazo--both NYY).

[Cruzer1]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_career.shtml

[Cruzer1]

  On 11/29/2021 at 4:20 PM, Cruzer1 said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_career.shtml

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*Baseball history

[SoCalTiger]

  On 11/29/2021 at 3:07 PM, 1984Echoes said:

Manning.

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Agree with you . Manning is highest realistic trade bait Tigers will consider trading for a young shortstop. Get Abrams from San Diego. Take Myers if needed. But I agree with other posters Gray was real good value at 4/56 and Ray makes me hesitate at big money.

[Archie]

I can't see them trading Mize, Skubal or Manning.  They will find a SS but he might not be from the first tier group. I'm still waiting for the big signing today.  It would be a great day for them to announce Correa.

[Motor City Sonics]

  On 11/29/2021 at 4:48 PM, Archie said:

I can't see them trading Mize, Skubal or Manning.  They will find a SS but he might not be from the first tier group. I'm still waiting for the big signing today.  It would be a great day for them to announce Correa.

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Or Story

Or Seager

Or (ducks) Baez

[mtutiger]

I wonder if this gets things moving again...

[Tenacious D]

  On 11/29/2021 at 5:11 PM, mtutiger said:

I wonder if this gets things moving again...

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seems like this, along with the other 3 signings, could knock the Mets out of pursuing a Baez reunion, but Cohen is such a wild card that it's foolish to predict.

[Motor City Sonics]

If they don't come out of this offseason with a significant upgrade at shortstop, Harbaugh should be fired. 

[mtutiger]

  On 11/29/2021 at 5:19 PM, Tenacious D said:

seems like this, along with the other 3 signings, could knock the Mets out of pursuing a Baez reunion, but Cohen is such a wild card that it's foolish to predict.

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The reporting that Baez will supposedly let the Mets make a final offer has me a bit concerned on his front, although that may be more bluster than fact.

[djhutch]

I'd be okay with Baez, but I'd prefer Story if we're not signing Correa.  I think it'll get done before the deadline on Wednesday, because I don't think Avila wants to wait to see what happens.  I wonder if Correa's agent wants him to wait it out?

[KL2]

  On 11/29/2021 at 11:22 AM, Tenacious D said:

If we sign Ray, would the Tigers use Mize or Skubal to get their next SS from a team that has minor league options, ie, Yanks and Padres?

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What? That's just silly. 

[mtutiger]

  On 11/29/2021 at 5:24 PM, djhutch said:

I'd be okay with Baez, but I'd prefer Story if we're not signing Correa.  I think it'll get done before the deadline on Wednesday, because I don't think Avila wants to wait to see what happens.  I wonder if Correa's agent wants him to wait it out?

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Correa may be waiting to see what happens with Seager

[Tenacious D]

  On 11/29/2021 at 5:32 PM, KL2 said:

What? That's just silly. 

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not advocating it, but if the Tigers decide to pivot and spend on an elite pitcher (vs. one of the elite SS), they might consider trading for an elite SS prospect. 

[Motor City Sonics]

  On 11/29/2021 at 5:46 PM, mtutiger said:

Correa may be waiting to see what happens with Seager

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If that's all it's about for him, that he has to have more, then I am not sure he's the guy.    I mean, if you got paid 30 a year and Seagar got 32, that's not acceptable?    To me that doesn't scream "team guy".   How much is enough?  Ego guys like that don't really get the fanbase on their side should they struggle.         Or is it that he really doesn't want to come here and only will if he gets more than every other shortstop, then I am not sure I'd want him either.   He's good, but is he that good?    I want him to WANT to be here.   If that's not the case, go for Story or Baez.   

There is another angle to consider here.  If you want to keep this manager around after this season, I think you'd better get a real upgrade because there's probably 3-5 good teams that are close that might come after him after this season.    

[chasfh]

It never fails to get a good laugh out of me when I see slappy fans dramatically overrate players within their own teams and systems. As if a mid- to back-of-rotation starter fresh off of his underwhelming rookie season could pry the #1 major-league-ready shortstop prospect from a loaded farm system, straight up.