2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[sabretooth]

Most good relievers in any given year weren't so good the year before, are good for that one year, then not so good the next.

Really good teams know how to grab/tinker/milk/discard the one-year guys.  Usually by getting them to improve their slider and use it a lot, then their arms wear out throwing it too much.  Sometimes it's more bread-and-butter like helping them locate their 4-seamer, which for most relievers seems to be a here today gone tomorrow proposition. 

[sabretooth]

  On 3/16/2022 at 1:47 PM, buddha said:

there's been a general shift in the sabr community from "stop throwing good money after bad just to increase your win total by 1.3 wins" to "the owners are so cheap and trying to lose they wont even throw money at trying to increase their win total by 1.3 wins."

its been interesting to watch from afar.

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I think sabr people as a rule place far too much emphasis on avoiding costs and far too little emphasis on winning.   

I'm really tired of some in the analytical community and their wannabes sounding like shills for cheap-*** owners.

If that's changing I would welcome it.

[RatkoVarda]

  On 3/16/2022 at 1:46 PM, sabretooth said:

My point is that if the Tigers want to win, they need to do more than grab castoffs, chant the name of Chris Fetter, and pray for luck.

And just because FA relievers are more risky than position players, doesn't mean that they are not needed/worth it (they are needed, to some extent), or that some of them aren't reliable (some of them are).

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and also, a 2 year deal comes with little risk, which is what most of these relievers are signing for

 

[buddha]

  On 3/16/2022 at 1:50 PM, Tiger337 said:

I think it's more accurate to say there has been a shift in the saber community from sabermetrics to left-wing politics.  

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also true.

[Tiger337]

  On 3/16/2022 at 1:55 PM, sabretooth said:

I think sabr people as a rule place far too much emphasis on avoiding costs and far too little emphasis on winning.   

I'm really tired of some in the analytical community and their wannabes sounding like shills for cheap-*** owners.

If that's changing I would welcome it.

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You must be following a different saber crowd than me.  All I see is them trashing owners on twitter and other places.  While I generally agree with them politically, I think politics and sabermetrics should not be mixed.  

[oblong]

  On 3/16/2022 at 1:51 PM, sabretooth said:

Most good relievers in any given year weren't so good the year before, are good for that one year, then not so good the next.

Really good teams know how to grab/tinker/milk/discard the one-year guys.  Usually by getting them to improve their slider and use it a lot, then their arms wear out throwing it too much.  Sometimes it's more bread-and-butter like helping them locate their 4-seamer, which for most relievers seems to be a here today gone tomorrow proposition. 

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that's what I met by "accident".  If you have a good system and coaching then you'll get your bullpen but it will change from year to year and you won't be able to predict who those gems will be consistently.  I didn't mean to suggest that just any old team will churn out a good bullpen.  You still have to do the good work.  But the strength is in numbers so that the law of averages is in your favor.  Don't bank on a defined 3 guys panning out.  Have 10 in the mix and see who rises.

 

[Tenacious D]

[Motor City Sonics]

  On 3/16/2022 at 2:26 PM, Tenacious D said:

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See, that's a signing that won't hurt.............More starting depth.   Still need that #5, thought.   He could be in that #6-10 range with Alexander, Hutchison, Olson, Wentz, Garcia.    Might need every one of those guys at some point this season.  

[Edman85]

  On 3/16/2022 at 1:50 PM, Tiger337 said:

I think it's more accurate to say there has been a shift in the saber community from sabermetrics to left-wing politics.  

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The numbers folks got hired by teams, so the activists are left.

[casimir]

  On 3/16/2022 at 2:34 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

See, that's a signing that won't hurt.............More starting depth.   Still need that #5, thought.   He could be in that #6-10 range with Alexander, Hutchison, Olson, Wentz, Garcia.    Might need every one of those guys at some point this season.  

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Agree.  A minor league deal with an invite to Lakeland is fine.

Now go steal Castillo from the Reds.

[Motor City Sonics]

  On 3/16/2022 at 2:37 PM, casimir said:

Agree.  A minor league deal with an invite to Lakeland is fine.

Now go steal Castillo from the Reds.

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I hope they're talking to the A's about a couple of their starters.   

[buddha]

  On 3/16/2022 at 2:34 PM, Edman85 said:

The numbers folks got hired by teams, so the activists are left.

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and now the teams are listening to them and theyre pissed about it.

"team owners are rich and therefore should be spending $6 million on an exoerienced backup catcher" isnt what im used to hearing from analytics people.  but hey, its 2022 and everything is political and the owners are rich and therefore bad people.

[Tenacious D]

  On 3/16/2022 at 2:34 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

See, that's a signing that won't hurt.............More starting depth.   Still need that #5, thought.   He could be in that #6-10 range with Alexander, Hutchison, Olson, Wentz, Garcia.    Might need every one of those guys at some point this season.  

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Agree.  I think the Tigers are lying in the weeds right now.  Not a lot of great free agent SP options out there, and teams are giving up good prospects in trades, which the Tigers don’t want to do.  However. I’d move Candelario, Grossman, Paredes, Cameron and/or Kreidler, if necessary.  I don’t think we have a lot of minor league pitching depth to move—Faedo and Wentz are question marks and Brieske, while promising, is unproven.  

[casimir]

  On 3/16/2022 at 2:39 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

I hope they're talking to the A's about a couple of their starters.   

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I would hate dealing with Oakland.  By default I would think the Tigers got worked because of how Oakland seems to get useful parts back for whomever they deal away.  I'm sure its not true for every trade that they make, but it seems that way.

[buddha]

suzuki to the cubs for 5 years $85 million.  tidy bit of business for them.

[mtutiger]

 

[Motor City Sonics]

Chafin has had a very schizophrenic career.     Hope it's taking it's meds this season. 

[mtutiger]

I had a feeling that Chafin would be one of their signings... Stavenhagen has thrown his name around a lot during this offseason lol

[Archie]

  On 3/16/2022 at 2:53 PM, mtutiger said:

 

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I hear Chafin signed with Tigers for 2 years / $13 million. 

[theroundsquare]

Chafin kinda seems like he might be my new favorite Tiger 

 

[Archie]

  On 3/16/2022 at 2:34 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

See, that's a signing that won't hurt.............More starting depth.   Still need that #5, thought.   He could be in that #6-10 range with Alexander, Hutchison, Olson, Wentz, Garcia.    Might need every one of those guys at some point this season.  

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AT this point I think we will see the 5th starter come from this group or it will be a combination of them. Wily will be in contention too.  Wentz might be a surprise....or a bust.

[Motor City Sonics]

  On 3/16/2022 at 3:21 PM, theroundsquare said:

Chafin kinda seems like he might be my new favorite Tiger 

 

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He's Chet Kelly from "Emergency!"

[Tenacious D]

  On 3/16/2022 at 3:21 PM, theroundsquare said:

Chafin kinda seems like he might be my new favorite Tiger 

 

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This generation’s Kevin Saucier

[Motor City Sonics]

  On 3/16/2022 at 3:32 PM, Tenacious D said:

This generation’s Kevin Saucier

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I hope it ends better.   Hot Sauce walked away because he was worried he'd kill someone.   

[mtutiger]

  On 3/16/2022 at 3:24 PM, Archie said:

AT this point I think we will see the 5th starter come from this group or it will be a combination of them. Wily will be in contention too.  Wentz might be a surprise....or a bust.

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I'd imagine there's still a chance the Tigers land a 5th starter in free agency, but the competition is stiff enough where we may want to get comfortable with the idea of having to plug that hole with Alexander and Co.

Landing Chafin lessens the blow there.... not landing any additional pitching improvements at all would have been a disappointment.