2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[sabretooth]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I thought Conforto was a good idea going into the winter, but he had an off year last year and hurt his shoulder in January.  He is supposedly healthy now, but I could see him being a problem.  If they can get him on a year deal, then sure.  

Didn't know about the shoulder.  If he winds up being not worth the risk then fine, but they still should have signed another bat in the offseason...a number of affordable bats were signed.

It's wierd to complain because unlike the last 5+ years, every position on the team other than DH is pretty solid. 

Barnhardt's bat is weak, even for a C, but if his D and game-calling are strong, that's probably OK....and Grossman's glove is sub-par, but he's still likely going to be a decent LFer.

Miggy is the one black hole at DH, probably the worst regular DH in baseball.  Even his nice-ish second half last year would still be pretty bad, especially if they are forced to waste extra PAs in the middle of the lineup with him, which is likely.  Hopefully he can happily accept a reduced role.

[sabretooth]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Nah.

They had better have their sights on a mid-season trade or two, because they simply do not have the horses to make the playoffs with this roster as currently constructed, even if some key guys overperform and nothing bad happens.

Edited April 1, 2022 by sabretooth

[sabretooth]

....missing the playoffs by a handful of games, because they pulled up short in the offseason, would be a real waste, a promising season down the drain **if that happens**.  I'm not saying Conforto is/was the answer, but there were other guys that could have helped and were not expensive relative to their likely production.

[gehringer_2]

So who is their DH against RH pitching if/when Cabrera can't go? You don't really want Haase or Reyes taking more AB against righties. Willi Castro doesn't hit RHP. H. Castro has no power. I wonder if the answer would end up being Cadelario and Kreidler sharing 3b/DH - or give Josh Lester a shot.....

[Tenacious D]

I’d pass on Conforto—injury is a concern and would rather not surrender another pick. Give the AB’s to Baddoo/Hill/Cameron.

[RatkoVarda]

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

Didn't know about the shoulder.  If he winds up being not worth the risk then fine, but they still should have signed another bat in the offseason...a number of affordable bats were signed.

It's wierd to complain because unlike the last 5+ years, every position on the team other than DH is pretty solid. 

Barnhardt's bat is weak, even for a C, but if his D and game-calling are strong, that's probably OK....and Grossman's glove is sub-par, but he's still likely going to be a decent LFer.

Miggy is the one black hole at DH, probably the worst regular DH in baseball.  Even his nice-ish second half last year would still be pretty bad, especially if they are forced to waste extra PAs in the middle of the lineup with him, which is likely.  Hopefully he can happily accept a reduced role.

some risk obviously with both his 2021 slump and 2022 injury, but I think he makes a lot of sense if you can get him for 2 years (even losing the draft pick)

[casimir]

12 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

 

At least they hid the duct tape pretty well.

[Tigeraholic1]

 

 

[casimir]

19 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I do think Greene is about as sure a bet as we have seen in a long time to  be a well above replacement hitter. I'm not sure what kind of average Torkelson will hit for but the plate discipline and power are real, so I expect a good OPB and some HR so that should keep his OPS afloat. Of course in a 1B that is a minimum expectation.

I'm probably fan boying it too much, but I'd love to see another career duo combo like Whitaker & Trammell.  The odds are against it, heck, the odds are against one or the other staying with the Tigers for a HOF discussion worthy career.

So that brings to mind the Molina & Wainwright pairing in St. Louis.  Pujols is getting the notoriety in camp, but Molina has been a Cardinal since 2004 and Wainwright had a cup of coffee in 2005 and has been there since.  I guess I think its something that's pretty noteworthy, the one franchise careers that are HO very good at minimum.  And then to have multiples that cover the same stretch.  And I know its not to be mentioned around these parts, but they've won a couple of titles along the way.

[Tigeraholic1]

 

 

[Motor City Sonics]

I love this video.   Dude has me cracking up. 

PITCH CLOCK/BATTING BOX CLOCK.............PLEASE MAKE THIS HAPPEN. 

 

 

[Archie]

11 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Hill hits another speed bump - sore hammy. Hinch saying they won't know if he's going to miss time until they check tomorrow - as per Freep.

I like Hill and think he has more potential than Reyes but he needs to stay healthy.  I like Greene, Grossman, Baddoo and Hill in the OF and was hoping to see them start the season that way.  What do I know because I thought Daz had a good spring but according to Hinch he needs to work on everything.

[chasfh]

Daz is one of the unfortunate class of Tigers prospect acquired under the previous development regime and who suffered from their incompetence. Derek Hill, our first round pick from eight years ago (!), is Exhibit #1. Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Cristin Stewart, all behind what their development should have been. Even Matt Manning took five years to finally make the team. Remember Jonathan Crawford? I barely do, but he got $2 million in the draft and is now out of organized baseball. And these were all first rounders!

I have a reasonable expectation that we won't be seeing this massive level from the Hinch-led regime.

[sabretooth]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Daz is one of the unfortunate class of Tigers prospect acquired under the previous development regime and who suffered from their incompetence. Derek Hill, our first round pick from eight years ago (!), is Exhibit #1. Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Cristin Stewart, all behind what their development should have been. Even Matt Manning took five years to finally make the team. Remember Jonathan Crawford? I barely do, but he got $2 million in the draft and is now out of organized baseball. And these were all first rounders!

I have a reasonable expectation that we won't be seeing this massive level from the Hinch-led regime.

Yeah, it's one thing to have a hit and a miss from the 1st round or to have only a couple of good prospects out of the rest of the draft over a couple of years, but to have only the tank-picks as plus prospects after 5 years of rebuilding is just unbelievable.

There simply was no rebuild, effectively.  The last 5 years = Three Tank Amigos. maybe Manning finds it, maybe they salvage a Scott Sizemore out of the rest, and a bunch of crap.

[gehringer_2]

25 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Alex Faedo

Something slipped in Faedo's management. It looked like they wanted to back off on his work, which they also did with Mize and it looks like they are doing with Jobe, but in Faedo's case he ended up losing his FB. That cost him months, then the TJ.

I also have a theory that the Tigers in the past were too slow with young hitters. I think if you don't move a guy to where he is seeing MLB pitching by certain age the window is going to start to close on his ability to adjust to it, so it can be counter productive to bring guys along slowly. I worry a lot less about a guys confidence being dashed than about missing his young brain's window to able to learn to recognize MLB breaking balls in real time. Or  another way to put it would be if a guy can't keep his head above water against good pitching at 21-24, he probably isn't going to be MLB material anyway. So you may as well/need to push college guys esp hard.

Edited April 1, 2022 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

13 hours ago, sabretooth said:

They had better have their sights on a mid-season trade or two...

This is my thinking. By mid-season, you can evaluate who is making it or not cutting it, who is having a bad season, injuries, etc... and make adjusting trades to fill in the most necessary holes.

You believe you have identified a major weakness, at the moment... but I want to see the season develop before making those decisions. What looks to you like a major weakness at the moment may be secondary or tertiary by mid-season.

I'll wait until then before thinking about what we need to obtain as additional help in chasing after the playoffs...

[HeyAbbott]

I'm back from vacation in Oregon and I am just getting caught up on the forum.

I thought I have been pessimistic, but I think many here that are gloomier than I.

I do think the Tigers have been horrible at training talent, however I think there are reasons to be optimistic.

First of all, it looks like an NL team needs 84 wins this year to be in playoff contention. An AL team needs 94. The only way the Tigers make it is to win the division. I suspect they are an 85 win team this year, so I agree they will not make the playoffs.

Most of the closure this year toward 94 wins will happen due to better defense. We played a pathetic parade of shortstops last year, and much of the time, they played at a high A level. Defensive runs saved this year will be vastly improved by innings being shortened by fielders actually fielding those ground balls that relief pitchers have produced in the past. I think that the improvements defensively are worth 70 runs saved over the season.

We are a solid relief pitcher short, and I'd like to find one more solid outfield bat.Our AL Central won-loss record must be at least 3 wins above .500 to be a contender. I'll believe it when I see it.

Tork and Greene are the real deal. I am looking for about 710 runs scored this year, and roughly 670 runs allowed.

This will be a good team,but they are a little short to be considered a contender.

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, HeyAbbott said:

I'm back from vacation in Oregon and I am just getting caught up on the forum.

I thought I have been pessimistic, but I think many here that are gloomier than I.

I do think the Tigers have been horrible at training talent, however I think there are reasons to be optimistic.

First of all, it looks like an NL team needs 84 wins this year to be in playoff contention. An AL team needs 94. The only way the Tigers make it is to win the division. I suspect they are an 85 win team this year, so I agree they will not make the playoffs.

Most of the closure this year toward 94 wins will happen due to better defense. We played a pathetic parade of shortstops last year, and much of the time, they played at a high A level. Defensive runs saved this year will be vastly improved by innings being shortened by fielders actually fielding those ground balls that relief pitchers have produced in the past. I think that the improvements defensively are worth 70 runs saved over the season.

We are a solid relief pitcher short, and I'd like to find one more solid outfield bat.Our AL Central won-loss record must be at least 3 wins above .500 to be a contender. I'll believe it when I see it.

Tork and Greene are the real deal. I am looking for about 710 runs scored this year, and roughly 670 runs allowed.

This will be a good team,but they are a little short to be considered a contender.

710 runs scored and 670 runs allowed would translate to 85 wins which would make them a contender, but probably fall a little short.  

[sabretooth]

If they allow only 670 runs that would be quite an accomplishment, a half-run reduction per 9 innings vs. 2021....and they would be where the Blue Jays, A's, Cards, and Astros were in 2021.  Seems really unlikely to me.

[sabretooth]

I am expecting a defensive improvement at SS and CF, which is significant, but the rest of the cast is the same, so I'm not seeing how those two positions save them 70 runs vs. 2021.  Maybe a dozen, maybe even two dozen, that's worth a couple of wins.

[gehringer_2]

40 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I am expecting a defensive improvement at SS and CF, which is significant, but the rest of the cast is the same, so I'm not seeing how those two positions save them 70 runs vs. 2021.  Maybe a dozen, maybe even two dozen, that's worth a couple of wins.

I'd have to dig back into old numbers, but IIRC, the year the Tigs went from Renteria and Guillen on the left side to Inge and Everitt, runs against dropped by almost 100. Of course there was turnover in the pitching staff as well (Porcello's rookie yr) but the change on the right side was certainly a chunk of it. Again, other stuff going on but JV, a constant on the staff, had his ERA drop by over 1 run. OTOH, Galarraga's was up just as much - so pick your choose!

Edited April 1, 2022 by gehringer_2

[sabretooth]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

This is my thinking. By mid-season, you can evaluate who is making it or not cutting it, who is having a bad season, injuries, etc... and make adjusting trades to fill in the most necessary holes.

You believe you have identified a major weakness, at the moment... but I want to see the season develop before making those decisions. What looks to you like a major weakness at the moment may be secondary or tertiary by mid-season.

I'll wait until then before thinking about what we need to obtain as additional help in chasing after the playoffs...

I hope that works...other than Conforto, there isn't anybody else left in the FA mkt. who can really help hitting-wise.

The existing guys will have to overperform across the board and have no major injuries, I believe, in order to be in a mid-season position to compete by adding a player or two.

Whoever they add will have less than 1/2 the season to assist the team if the trade(s) happen(s) after the ASB.

We shall see.

[sabretooth]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'd have to dig back into old numbers, but IIRC, the year the Tigs went from Renteria and Guillen on the left side to Inge and Everitt, runs against dropped by almost 100. Of course there was turnover in the pitching staff as well (Porcello's rookie yr) but the change on the right side was certainly a chunk of it.

Yeah, in 2008 Renteria/Guillen had a -15 combined DRS at SS/3B, and in 2009 Everett/Inge were a combined +20, so that's about a third.

The combined DRS at SS and CF was a whopping -35 in 2022 (!!!).....I didn't realize it was THAT horrible.....if Baez and Greene can combine for a +5 to +10 (Baez has generally been between 3 and 6, we don't know what Greene might do), that would be a +40 to +45 swing right there.....plus Willi not playing 2B will help too, might add another 5+ right there....it might not be 70 but it is more than I thought.  

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

If they allow only 670 runs that would be quite an accomplishment, a half-run reduction per 9 innings vs. 2021....and they would be where the Blue Jays, A's, Cards, and Astros were in 2021.  Seems really unlikely to me.

Yes, they can score 710 runs without much trouble.  670 runs allowed would be more difficult to achieve, but as Gehringer pointed out, defense can make a big difference.  Baez can be a huge improvement if his defense was like it was a couple of years ago.  I don't really now what expect from Greene.  The pitching staff has a lot of questions.  They don't have anyone that has consistently pitched full MLB seasons, but there is a lot of potential.  It's hard to project young players, but there is a lot of new upside on this roster - hitters and pitchers..  Of course, that's not say that they'll reach it.   

[gehringer_2]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Yes, they can score 710 runs without much trouble.  670 runs allowed would be more difficult to achieve, but as Gehringer pointed out, defense can make a big difference.  Baez can be a huge improvement if his defense was like it was a couple of years ago.  I don't really now what expect from Greene.  The pitching staff has a lot of questions.  They don't have anyone that has consistently pitched full MLB seasons, but there is a lot of potential.  It's hard to project young players, but there is a lot of new upside on this roster - hitters and pitchers..  Of course, that's not say that they'll reach it.   

and don't go to sleep on Tyler Alexander. Kid is pitching up a storm again today. They are going to have to find ways to get him innings.