2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[Edman85]

23 hours ago, Archie said:

Some people already have Greene and Tork penciled in as MLB stars but they haven't even played in the bigs yet.  All of us, including myself hope they are the answer to some of the Tiger problems but its possible one or both will not be successful major league players.  Tigers would be smart to hold off on big contracts until they can see what they can do in Detroit.

I can think of three of these long term pre-arb extensions that haven't worked out, out of the dozens that have happened. (Singleton, Kingery, Tabata). There is some risk, but it is the smart thing to do if Tork and Greene are amenable to it. They are about as low risk as prospects who haven't hit the bigs get. Worst comes to worst, they are okay players you are on the hook for 5-6 years down the road.

Take Ronald Acuna for example

2019: $1M

2020: $1M

2021: $5M

2022: $15M

2023: $17M

2024: $17M

2025: $17M

2026: $17M

2027: $17M option ($10M buyout)

2028: $17M option

The AAV on the deal comes out to $12.5M (the buyout on the option in 2027 plays into this, if you are checking my math) so the Braves take a $11.5M hit on the luxury tax in 2019-2020 when they aren't likely to be paying it to save $4.5M against it in 2023-2026 when their players may be getting expensive or they need to hit free agency. Also, due to the way the buyouts work, his CBT number in 2027 is $7M that year.

There are several examples of this. Chris Sale: the White Sox did this with him and were able to get Yoan Moncada for him. Why? Because his CBT number was low and the Red Sox were up against the CBT cap.

The Tigers went year to year with guys and it killed them when they got good. Bear in mind the competitive balance tax is not just a tax on the owner, draft pick compensation is affected (why the Tigers got a pile of scraps for JD Martinez, because they were only getting a 4th rounder for him), as are the competitive balance draft picks and international bonus pool.

Edited October 14, 2021 by Edman85

[mtutiger]

Hot take: Carlos Correa is oversold as a possibility and Corey Seager is undersold.

[romad1]

Hottest take:  We need to upgrade at SS.  Get us someone who reminds us of Johnny Peralta and less of Willie Castro.

[sabretooth]

On 10/13/2021 at 12:22 PM, KL2 said:

Not sure what you're expecting. 

Top flight short stop $30 million. 

One of the pitching spots will go to alexander/injury guys/pena/wentz/et all. So $10 million for a pitcher. 

Then $5 million for a catcher (Hesse will be one and the other guy will just be a stop gap). Even if I spend $5 million for a bullpen arm or two (most the bullpen will be back). That's filling all the needs you mention for $50 million a year.

 

And I doubt they think they are playoff team next year even with the additions. Given the youth of the team. .500 is a more reasonable goal.

I agree that this is probably what they're going to do, and I also agree that .500 is probably going to be the result.   They should aim higher but I don't think they will.

[sabretooth]

3 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I can think of three of these long term pre-arb extensions that haven't worked out, out of the dozens that have happened. (Singleton, Kingery, Tabata). There is some risk, but it is the smart thing to do if Tork and Greene are amenable to it. They are about as low risk as prospects who haven't hit the bigs get. Worst comes to worst, they are okay players you are on the hook for 5-6 years down the road.

Take Ronald Acuna for example

2019: $1M

2020: $1M

2021: $5M

2022: $15M

2023: $17M

2024: $17M

2025: $17M

2026: $17M

2027: $17M option ($10M buyout)

2028: $17M option

The AAV on the deal comes out to $12.5M (the buyout on the option in 2027 plays into this, if you are checking my math) so the Braves take a $11.5M hit on the luxury tax in 2019-2020 when they aren't likely to be paying it to save $4.5M against it in 2023-2026 when their players may be getting expensive or they need to hit free agency. Also, due to the way the buyouts work, his CBT number in 2027 is $7M that year.

There are several examples of this. Chris Sale: the White Sox did this with him and were able to get Yoan Moncada for him. Why? Because his CBT number was low and the Red Sox were up against the CBT cap.

The Tigers went year to year with guys and it killed them when they got good. Bear in mind the competitive balance tax is not just a tax on the owner, draft pick compensation is affected (why the Tigers got a pile of scraps for JD Martinez, because they were only getting a 4th rounder for him), as are the competitive balance draft picks and international bonus pool.

Very interesting....thanks.

[RandyMarsh]

If they get a top flight SS, solid starter and near full season of Tork(May call up) I think they need to shoot for being better than just .500.

Last year their SS and 1B combined for just .4 wins. A top flight SS should give you 5 wins by himself and Tork should add 3 to 4 so you're talking potentially 9 wins just in those 2 guys. 

Factor in progressions from Manning, Skubal and Mize(numbers may be the same but he'll contribute 30-50 more innings) and that could be another 2 to 3 wins there.

Sure there's probably going to be some regressions elsewhere to offset some of these gains but I'm thinking if they do make those additions the team's expectation will be closer to mid to upper 80s win total than .500.  

Edited October 14, 2021 by RandyMarsh

[mtutiger]

 

[KL2]

22 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

Some would argue that you shouldn't invest big in free agency if you are not going to field an expected playoff team.

 

 

 

Ok but that's not what you wrote

[Archie]

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

I agree that this is probably what they're going to do, and I also agree that .500 is probably going to be the result.   They should aim higher but I don't think they will.

I think they could do better than .500 with some FA help.  Tigers played from May 8(?) to the end of the season over .500.  The terrible start left them in a huge hole to dig out of. 

[RandyMarsh]

I know people will say that you can't just throw out that start and I agree to an extent but I also feel there are some tangible reasons why you shouldnt put too much stock in that start and put more stock in the team they fielded the last 5 months of the year. 

First and foremost Fetter was away from the team for a couple weeks in April, I think him not being there hurt the young starting pitchers by evidence of their terrible numbers.  

Then there is just AJ getting accustomed to the whole team and how to use everybody properly to maximize their skills or hide their deficiencies. He is known as one of the best at that so after the short learning curve I think he started to get it down and the team responded accordingly.

 

[Tiger337]

14 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I know people will say that you can't just throw out that start and I agree to an extent but I also feel there are some tangible reasons why you shouldnt put too much stock in that start and put more stock in the team they fielded the last 5 months of the year. 

First and foremost Fetter was away from the team for a couple weeks in April, I think him not being there hurt the young starting pitchers by evidence of their terrible numbers.  

Then there is just AJ getting accustomed to the whole team and how to use everybody properly to maximize their skills or hide their deficiencies. He is known as one of the best at that so after the short learning curve I think he started to get it down and the team responded accordingly.

 

I still think their current skill level is in between their poor start and their last five months.  I am hoping Avila/Hinch are looking at their final record as they approach the winter rather than thinking that they are an above .500 team already.  At the same time, I look at the rosters of some of the playoff teams and they don't appear to be hundreds of miles ahead of the Tigers.  I think The Tigers can get close with a good off-season.    

[RandyMarsh]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I still think their current skill level is in between their poor start and their last five months.  I am hoping Avila/Hinch are looking at their final record as they approach the winter rather than thinking that they are an above .500 team already.  At the same time, I look at the rosters of some of the playoff teams and they don't appear to be hundreds of miles ahead of the Tigers.  I think The Tigers can get close with a good off-season.    

I don't think they are the upper 80s win team that they played like the final 5 months but I also don't think they are a mid 70s win team that their final record indicated.

I think its fair to say they are an 80 to 82 win team as it stands now give or take a game.

The fact that they actually had a positive run differential during those 5 months and didn't have some unsustainable record in close games or something leads me to think that there is some legitimacy in that record. 

[sabretooth]

2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

If they get a top flight SS, solid starter and near full season of Tork(May call up) I think they need to shoot for being better than just .500.

Last year their SS and 1B combined for just .4 wins. A top flight SS should give you 5 wins by himself and Tork should add 3 to 4 so you're talking potentially 9 wins just in those 2 guys. 

Factor in progressions from Manning, Skubal and Mize(numbers may be the same but he'll contribute 30-50 more innings) and that could be another 2 to 3 wins there.

Sure there's probably going to be some regressions elsewhere to offset some of these gains but I'm thinking if they do make those additions the team's expectation will be closer to mid to upper 80s win total than .500.  

I would recommend going for a star SP and RP in addition to the "solid" SP, but I know that's not going to happen; the likely result is with the solid FA SP acquisition, their pitching overall will not likely improve in 2022 v 2021. 

- the solid SP would hopefully replace the 24 starts of Boyd and Turnbull with about the same level of performance, as well as hopefully another couple of good starts....so probably no major improvement vs. 2021 from the FA acquisition.

- As you said, there is probably 3 or 4 WAR of improvement in Mize/Manning/Skubal....however, there is likely going to be 3 or 4 WAR of regression from the rest of the starting rotation.  Other than Mize/Manning/Skubal, and excluding Boyd and Turnbull, since they likely will not pitch in 2022, the rest of the starters from May 8th to the end of 2021 (Alexander, Peralta, Urena, Hutch, Funk) collectively outperformed their peripherals by about 30+ runs allowed, or 3+ WAR.  Thus, normal regression from these guys or their replacements will likely offset improvement from Mize/Manning Skubal.

The bullpen improved from 2.8 runs/game in the first 33 games (through May 8th) to 2 runs/game from May 8th to the end of 2021.....if this improvement is simply carried into 2022, it could yield a couple of dozen runs saved vs 2021 and 2 - 3 wins or more....however, Fulmer, Funk, Cisnero, Soto, Hutch and Lange all outperformed their peripherals between 0.50 - 1+ runs per 9 innings....the post-May 8th surge for the group could be non-repeatable.

I think you could see 5-10 wins of improvement from 1b (Tork) and SS (good FA) and even Greene could pitch in a little....but other injuries and regressions from Grossman and others could cancel out a fair amount of these gains.  If they are going for the big-SS, meh-SP and internal improvement strategy, my bet is that they don't hit 85 wins that way.

They would likely be at least $10M below the league average salary.....so if they hit 81 - 85 wins, that's an overperformance vs. the team payroll....so there is that victory for the owner anyway, for those who put Chris I's bottom line first.

 

Edited October 14, 2021 by sabretooth

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I still think their current skill level is in between their poor start and their last five months.  I am hoping Avila/Hinch are looking at their final record as they approach the winter rather than thinking that they are an above .500 team already.  At the same time, I look at the rosters of some of the playoff teams and they don't appear to be hundreds of miles ahead of the Tigers.  I think The Tigers can get close with a good off-season.    

QFT....I loved this team, a real testament to Hinch/Fetters and to AA for finding some steals in Baddoo and Haase, among others.

However, even with the hot youngsters coming up, they cannot expect to get over the hump by adding them and a star SS.

It would be particularly disappointing to see them acquire a SP who would merely replace the lost starts from Boyd and Turnbull.  They need TWO SPs, one who is at least "solid"/average, and another who is above average.  They also need to fortify the bullpen....WAAAAYYY too many BBs and HRs from these guys.

I also would like to see them fortify the OF, which in 2021 was a massive career year from a 32-year old Grossman, a nice 124 games from Baddoo, and a bunch of "meh".  They need another productive/plus bat out there, and it shouldn't fall on Riley Greene, Daz or Hill to try and supply it. 

With Tork coming up and an above average SS, I will be pretty happy with the IF, especially if they can reinforce the C position.

But the SP/RP and OF need to be improved, and not just from within. 

[sabretooth]

I also want to make it clear that in my post above responding to RandyMarsh, I am evaluating the period from May 8th to the end of the season.  I am not exactly throwing out the first part of the year, but I am really focusing on what the final 130 games mean going forward. 

[RandyMarsh]

7 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I would recommend going for a star SP and RP in addition to the "solid" SP, but I know that's not going to happen; the likely result is with the solid FA SP acquisition, their pitching overall will not likely improve in 2022 v 2021. 

- the solid SP would hopefully replace the 24 starts of Boyd and Turnbull with about the same level of performance, as well as hopefully another couple of good starts....so probably no major improvement vs. 2021 from the FA acquisition.

- As you said, there is probably 3 or 4 WAR of improvement in Mize/Manning/Skubal....however, there is likely going to be 3 or 4 WAR of regression from the rest of the starting rotation.  Other than Mize/Manning/Skubal, and excluding Boyd and Turnbull, since they likely will not pitch in 2022, the rest of the starters from May 8th to the end of 2021 (Alexander, Peralta, Urena, Hutch, Funk) collectively outperformed their peripherals by about 30+ runs allowed, or 3+ WAR.  Thus, normal regression from these guys or their replacements will likely offset improvement from Mize/Manning Skubal.

The bullpen improved from 2.8 runs/game in the first 33 games (through May 8th) to 2 runs/game from May 8th to the end of 2021.....if this improvement is simply carried into 2022, it could yield a couple of dozen runs saved vs 2021 and 2 - 3 wins or more....however, Fulmer, Funk, Cisnero, Soto, Hutch and Lange all outperformed their peripherals between 0.50 - 1+ runs per 9 innings....the post-May 8th surge for the group could be non-repeatable.

I think you could see 5-10 wins of improvement from 1b (Tork) and SS (good FA) and even Greene could pitch in a little....but other injuries and regressions from Grossman and others could cancel out a fair amount of these gains.  If they are going for the big-SS, meh-SP and internal improvement strategy, my bet is that they don't hit 85 wins that way.

They would likely be at least $10M below the league average salary.....so if they hit 81 - 85 wins, that's an overperformance vs. the team payroll....so there is that victory for the owner anyway, for those who put Chris I's bottom line first.

 

Nice detailed analysis Sabre and I agree with most of your points,  I especially am a little concerned about our pitchers regressing due to them outpitching their peripherals. The optimist in me is hoping that it doesnt happen.

I do have to disagree about Grossman, while he might regress I don't think its fair to pencil it in. Looking at his career numbers his offense isn't far off from where it was in his career its just that he got more chances this year. 

[Edman85]

I want to do the Chris Sale example too...

Contract signed 2013, his last year pre-arb. (p.s. most of these deals happen in spring training)

2013: $850K

2014: $3.5M

2015: $6M

2016: $9.15M

2017: $12M

2018: $12.5M (Option, $1M Buyout)

2019: $13.5M (Option, $1M Buyout, increased to $15M with Cy Young incentives)

Traded before the 2017 season, so while he as making $12M that year, his CBT number was $6.5M. The Red Sox could get him without blowing through the tax... thus they were willing to give up a bit more for him.

[Edman85]

I may have had the option year info wrong on the Acuna post... trying to wrap my head around it.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

I don't think they are the upper 80s win team that they played like the final 5 months but I also don't think they are a mid 70s win team that their final record indicated.

I think its fair to say they are an 80 to 82 win team as it stands now give or take a game.

The fact that they actually had a positive run differential during those 5 months and didn't have some unsustainable record in close games or something leads me to think that there is some legitimacy in that record. 

I'll go back to what I said earlier in the summer in our now defunct forum: mid 80s is definitely a reasonable goal for this team. Especially if they do make some investments in the roster.

I am a little bit wary of some of the individual performances they got, particularly offensively (ie. Baddoo, Haase), so they'll need to perhaps offset some lost production with their improvements. But it is definitely achievable, especially in this division.

[Archie]

3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I know people will say that you can't just throw out that start and I agree to an extent but I also feel there are some tangible reasons why you shouldnt put too much stock in that start and put more stock in the team they fielded the last 5 months of the year. 

First and foremost Fetter was away from the team for a couple weeks in April, I think him not being there hurt the young starting pitchers by evidence of their terrible numbers.  

Then there is just AJ getting accustomed to the whole team and how to use everybody properly to maximize their skills or hide their deficiencies. He is known as one of the best at that so after the short learning curve I think he started to get it down and the team responded accordingly.

 

If they would have played over .500 for only a month or two during the season I wouldn't have the same opinion.  However, they played most of the season above .500.  The hole they dug in April and early May was so deep it was impossible to get out of and back to .500 but they came close a couple times.  Plus I look at the quality teams they won series against and even swept a few of them.  I know the flip side of that is they had their butts handed to them by lesser teams often too.  For some reason they could beat the best teams and lose to the worst.  Go figure! 

Anyway I think it makes a good foundation to build on with obvious areas to improve.  It gives me hope they will be over .500 in 2022 and possibly contending for a WC if they just get their labor issues settled.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Nice detailed analysis Sabre and I agree with most of your points,  I especially am a little concerned about our pitchers regressing due to them outpitching their peripherals. The optimist in me is hoping that it doesnt happen.

I do have to disagree about Grossman, while he might regress I don't think its fair to pencil it in. Looking at his career numbers his offense isn't far off from where it was in his career its just that he got more chances this year. 

I also think Sabre discounting Greene is a mistake. We shouldn't rely on him for anything? Don't put anything on his shoulders? Wrong answer. Greene will have a big year for Detroit. A rookie year, with mistakes and dry spells and all...

But there is no reason whatsoever to invest in a FA OF'er this offseason.

And... I don't think everything gets done in one off-season anyways. So I don't see getting an OF'er this off-season, I don't see getting two high level SP's this year.

I DO see getting a high end RP this year. Probably one. And the best SS and best SP that Ilitch/ Avila are willing to buy. And a stopgap C. And some back-end 6th starter types on cheap deals. And that's it.

And I still expect 85-90 wins for this team.

[HeyAbbott]

It is very tempting to look at the bad start in '21 and presume it won't be repeated. Another out-of-the norm event from last year was the number of major arm surgeries required (Faedo in the minors, Turnball, Rogers at C, and Boyd). I'd probably anticipate one SP going down this year and Faedo  and Turnball will not contribute much this year. I tend to think that the TJ surgeries that will meaningfully reduce the impact of key arms, and thus offset the gains expected to be realized by not starting so poorly this year. This is a 77 win team as things stand now.

We have a problem at SP and SS. To make the most of the pitching we do have, I would rate the SS decision to be the most important decision, then the pitching need, and then finally the catcher position. I am most certainly not counting on any untested minor league guy to fill the bill at short.

[SoCalTiger]

They could trade for Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. Poor hitter but great glove and was 1.6 war last year. Then load up on pitching. After all the expensive free agents shortstops get signed then circle back and try to trade for good minor league shortstop thats blocked even if they are two years away. 

[Edman85]

14 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

They could trade for Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. Poor hitter but great glove and was 1.6 war last year. Then load up on pitching. After all the expensive free agents shortstops get signed then circle back and try to trade for good minor league shortstop thats blocked even if they are two years away. 

Not a terrible idea, depending on if they can diagnose his downturn this year and see if he is a rebound candidate. Seems like a buy low guy, under contract for a couple years, and on the outs. It may be a situation where he doesn't cost much too acquire either.

Edited October 15, 2021 by Edman85

[RatkoVarda]

5 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

They could trade for Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. Poor hitter but great glove and was 1.6 war last year. Then load up on pitching. After all the expensive free agents shortstops get signed then circle back and try to trade for good minor league shortstop thats blocked even if they are two years away. 

different approach, but this is  makes a lot of sense as well.

seriously, do we know who is in charge of trades now? is it still Al, because I still have little confidence in his trading abilities