2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[1984Echoes]

That you guys are so hung up on getting that extra bat is pretty funny to me.

We're not getting an extra bat.

OF or DH or anywhere else.

We're getting a SS, and a stopgap catcher... that's it.

[SoCalTiger]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

I guess I hadn't realized Canha is going to be 33 soon.  I guess now rethinking it, I wouldn't go more than 2 years on him.  Looking at his numbers again, there might be some evidence of the downside of his career, although the abbreviated 2020 is tough to judge.

Pederson would make for a really lefty heavy OF.  I'm not sure that's ideal.  Grossman can play everyday.  But then Pederson and at least one of Greene/Baddoo would likely make the Opening Day roster.  I suppose if one of the kids is ticketed for Toledo or used as trade bait, Pederson makes sense.  I don't know, it seems like a RHB OF makes more sense for a decent balance in the OF.  And, yes, this assumes RHBs in Cabrera, Schoop, a C, Torkelson in the lineup.

I guess Greene is assumed to be an everyday player.  Baddoo showed some capability to go the other way against LHPs, although the consistency certainly isn't there (not surprising, he's a young kid, a rule 5 kid, and he's lost a good amount of development time not just due to COVID).

Starling Marte just turned 33, so he kind of goes against what I said about age and decline with Canha.  But he's also better than Canha, so there's that.  Does an OF of Baddoo/Greene/Marte/Grossman sound like fun?  Maybe Marte is the bargain due to age and the SS bacchanal?

I love Marte and maybe his price does slip after shopping for shortstops but I think he will still be expensive and want 4 years. I look at Canha as much much cheaper and shorter term. Line 15/2 verses 70/4. Save $ for pitching. I keep thinking plug the defensive holes at short and catcher  at reasonable cost , add a solid bat at low cost/short term assuming Greene and Tork to come up and contribute slower and save big money for pitching . Lots of it. 

[Tigermojo]

I think the Tigers proved this year they could win with smart baserunning. They didn't necessarily need a big home run hitter. They do have some power potential with Torkelson, Greene and Cameron. The later two also have speed.

The outfield looks pretty set to me. I expect Baddoo, Hill and Grossman out of spring training with Greene and Cameron getting significant time as the season progresses.

An established shortstop would be a big upgrade along with Schoop at second. That should solve the black hole they fielded up the middle.

They improved so much at baserunning. I'd like to see some similar improvements on defense. That probably means less flexibility and more specialization from Hinch. Schoop should play second. Baddoo in left and Grossman in right. Torkelson at first once he makes the team. Let the regulars get very comfortable at their positions. They have other players who can move around.

They probably keep a lot of the same position players next year with a couple upgrades. Shortstop is the obvious area for improvement but the pitching staff could really use some upgrades in the rotation and bullpen.

[1984Echoes]

My Avila-Metertm says SS and Catcher only.

No other bats except AAAA stashed bats for emergency use only.

Like Aderlin Rodriguez.

[casimir]

3 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I love Marte and maybe his price does slip after shopping for shortstops but I think he will still be expensive and want 4 years. I look at Canha as much much cheaper and shorter term. Line 15/2 verses 70/4. Save $ for pitching. I keep thinking plug the defensive holes at short and catcher  at reasonable cost , add a solid bat at low cost/short term assuming Greene and Tork to come up and contribute slower and save big money for pitching . Lots of it. 

I would prioritize SP, SS, SP, C, and RP, and more P before CF.  And the RP is a tough one to gauge because of the volatility in that realm.  I don't trust it going forward, someone else mentioned the peripherals, and I agree.  Maybe that's where Fetter gets more out of RP than peripherals suggest, I don't know.

But if the market gets goofy for SS and ignores Marte, he can help the Tigers offensively and defensively.

[romad1]

Feeling:  One of the castros goes in a trade for pitching 

[romad1]

Another feeling:  We re-sign Willy Peralta before someone notices he’s a free agent

[gehringer_2]

48 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Feeling:  One of the castros goes in a trade for pitching 

I wish. The only pitching we'd be likely to get for either Castro would be an upgraded Iron Mike.

Edited October 16, 2021 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Another feeling:  We re-sign Willy Peralta before someone notices he’s a free agent

A 26 year-old AA reliever who throws hard but has problems with command. 

 

[Archie]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Feeling:  One of the castros goes in a trade for pitching 

I don't know what kind of pitcher we would get for either of them.  They might bring a small return but not someone that would be a dependable established pitcher.

[romad1]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I wish. The only pitching we'd be likely to get for either Castro would be an upgraded Iron Mike.

I didn’t say it would be good pitching 

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

Feeling:  One of the castros goes in a trade for pitching 

Actually...

I think the team stashes the losers of the 2022 Detroit Tigers Bench Wars in AAA, for emergency use.

The contenders: Castrei Brothers, Niko, Paredes, Kreidler & Clemens.

Possibly 2 winners.

But definitely all the losers end up in Toledo. Or as a throw-in in a 2022 Trade Deadline trade. Or as a throw-in on a Spring Training trade. Or on Hinch's Persona Non Grata list, joining Jacoby, Mazara, Norris and others.

Or... somewhere.

[KL2]

11 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

Basically, I would love for the Tigers to follow their model, they really know how to build on their talent base. They are mostly built through the draft, and get extra picks every year.

They've also won exactly as much as we have since 2000

[KL2]

11 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

They are mostly built through the draft, and get extra picks every year.

Of their starting 9 and 11 man pitching staff, a total of 3 guys were drafted by the rays. (keimeir, lowe, Shane M...if you added in international signings it jumpts to 4)

So 4/20 20 percent. I don't think that's "mostly"

Edited October 17, 2021 by KL2

[RandyMarsh]

I do remember the Rays being notorious for getting extra picks back in the old compensation system. I remember back in I believe the 2011 draft the Rays had 10 or 11 draft picks before we even got our first.  Of course we lost our pick that year for signing Victor but still that is crazy. 

[diaspora04]

On 10/7/2021 at 7:11 AM, casimir said:

Did he cross Adduci?

Showing proper respect is always advised.

[1984Echoes]

I could go Braves - Red Sox World Series.

Strategically... so the Astros free agents can be "motivated" to look for other teams to play for next year...

[sabretooth]

On 10/15/2021 at 8:55 PM, Tiger337 said:

I don't want to see any team sneak into the playoffs.  That is why I hate expanding the playoffs even further.  I don't really want the Tigers to aim for 85 wins.  I was just saying that I think they could.  

Right, I get it.

[sabretooth]

22 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

That you guys are so hung up on getting that extra bat is pretty funny to me.

We're not getting an extra bat.

OF or DH or anywhere else.

We're getting a SS, and a stopgap catcher... that's it.

Have I failed to acknowledge that?  Fine, will say it again: they are only going to get one pitcher (mistake) and a SS (good) and a C (meh).  Not enough pitching help, not enough hitting help.

Getting a second starting pitcher and another bat, resulting in a league average payroll, is reasonable, and if they were trying to win 90 games, it would be on the menu.

I think with their plan they have a decent shot at a winning season, and a not so good shot at the playoffs.

 

[casimir]

There's plenty of room for improvement.  Some of it will be internal.  But there's certainly plenty of room to augment the roster externally.

Mize and Skubal in the rotation.  Soto, Cisnero, Alexander, and Funkhouser in the bullpen.  Fulmer somewhere on the pitching staff.  Schoop at 2B, Candelario at 3B, Grossman in a corner, Baddoo in the OF.  Haase behind the plate.  These spots have been earned (some more than others).

Cabrera has the contract.  Hill has the defensive chops if not the luck of health.  Manning has the expectations.  They're likely on the roster.

Torkelson and Greene are on the horizon if not the roster.  Turnbull and Rogers are on the 60 IL.

Nothing else should be a scholarship to the active roster for Opening Day.  Nothing else should be considered earned.  All unmentioned 2021 Tigers come with the tag of "if".  Plenty of room for improvement.

[Tenacious D]

agree with the sentiment that we will be going aggressively after SS and C.  If we flail on signing Correa/Seager/Story/Semien, I could see us looking at Andrelton Simmons.  I think defense will be the priority if we can't get a big bat there.

Not a lot of realistic or good options in free agency for a C--might have to be a trade.  I'd probably target Yan Gomes in free agency on a 1-2 year deal (OK to go two years--can always trade from depth, if necessary).  Ironically, Alex Avila would have been a perfect fit on this team, if he had decided to play one more season.

We don't need to acquire an OF--very comfortable next season with Grossman in one of the corner positions.  I'm assuming Greene will get the other at some point.  I like the combination of candidates we have in Baddoo, Hill and Cameron for the third spot (with Reyes at Toledo).  If we are contending at the trade deadline, and none of the young guys are panning out, then we can look to make a deadline deal to round out the OF.

Lots of good starting pitchers available in free agency--I'd target a very good one, and try and sign a Peralta-type for the 2nd spot.  I'm assuming that Mize, Skubal, Manning all have spots, and Tyler Alexander is a candidate depending on who we can acquire.  Fulmer maybe, too.  I'd like to keep him in the pen, but he is a rotation option again.  Wentz will be in the mix, but he'll need to go to Toledo and prove him.  Probably not someone you count on at this point, but provides depth if any injuries.  I also think we'll sign Boyd to a surgery-friendly deal, and he might be available at some point in the 2nd half.

On the subject of Justin Verlander--my heart says sign him, and my head does, too, if there is no qualifying offer attached to him.  If the Astros do that, I'd punt--bring him back in 2023 or 2024, when he's less risky and more attainable.  I have very low expectations for him at this point, but would like to see him have a role on the 26-man roster in the next couple of years.

My ideal offseason:

SS: 1) Correa 2) Semien (cause he'll be cheaper) 3) Story.  Love Seager, but doubt he stays at SS after a few more seasons.

C : Yan Gomes (good WAR, more attainable).  Really don't have any good trade targets here, but hope we emphasize defense after seeing Ramos earlier this season).

SP: 1) Marcus Stroman, 2) Robbie Ray, 3) Alex Cobb

 

 

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

There's plenty of room for improvement.  Some of it will be internal.  But there's certainly plenty of room to augment the roster externally.

Mize and Skubal in the rotation.  Soto, Cisnero, Alexander, and Funkhouser in the bullpen.  Fulmer somewhere on the pitching staff.  Schoop at 2B, Candelario at 3B, Grossman in a corner, Baddoo in the OF.  Haase behind the plate.  These spots have been earned (some more than others).

Cabrera has the contract.  Hill has the defensive chops if not the luck of health.  Manning has the expectations.  They're likely on the roster.

Torkelson and Greene are on the horizon if not the roster.  Turnbull and Rogers are on the 60 IL.

Nothing else should be a scholarship to the active roster for Opening Day.  Nothing else should be considered earned.  All unmentioned 2021 Tigers come with the tag of "if".  Plenty of room for improvement.

the three young starters will work additional innings about equal to one additional starter.  Added to Tork and Greene that will be the equivalent of three new players. Add 3 FA distributed at SP, SS, C and it makes a turnover of 6 players out of the core of 14 (5 starters plus 9 hitters). That enough turn over to create a lot of possible improvement (or disappointment!). Alexander probably also adds to the rotation but I'd guess he'll be a wash performance wise with Boyd or Peralta or whoever you want to consider him as replacing.

And that doesn't include the BP, which is a bigger piece of the puzzle every year. But like any BP from year to year it may go either way. Possible downsides are Cisnero and Funk turn back into the walk machines they have been in the past; another Fulmer injury. Possible upsides: Lange, Roni Garcia, Faedo, Wentz, Madden, Jimenez finds some command, etc....

Edited October 17, 2021 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

the three young starters will work additional innings about equal to one additional starter.  Added to Tork and Greene that will be the equivalent of three new players. Add 3 FA distributed at SP, SS, C and it makes a turnover of 6 players out of the core of 14 (5 starters plus 9 hitters). That enough turn over to create a lot of possible improvement (or disappointment!). Alexander probably also adds to the rotation but I'd guess he'll be a wash performance wise with Boyd or Peralta or whoever you want to consider him as replacing.

And that doesn't include the BP, which is a bigger piece of the puzzle every year. But like any BP from year to year it may go either way. Possible downsides are Cisnero and Funk turn back into the walk machines they have been in the past; another Fulmer injury. Possible upsides: Lange, Roni Garcia, Faedo, Wentz, Madden, Jimenez finds some command, etc....

Its a big "if", but Lange building upon his final month would significantly improve my outlook on the bullpen. He definitely has the stuff, just need to see him do it consistently 

[sabretooth]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

the three young starters will work additional innings about equal to one additional starter.  Added to Tork and Greene that will be the equivalent of three new players. Add 3 FA distributed at SP, SS, C and it makes a turnover of 6 players out of the core of 14 (5 starters plus 9 hitters). That enough turn over to create a lot of possible improvement (or disappointment!). Alexander probably also adds to the rotation but I'd guess he'll be a wash performance wise with Boyd or Peralta or whoever you want to consider him as replacing.

And that doesn't include the BP, which is a bigger piece of the puzzle every year. But like any BP from year to year it may go either way. Possible downsides are Cisnero and Funk turn back into the walk machines they have been in the past; another Fulmer injury. Possible upsides: Lange, Roni Garcia, Faedo, Wentz, Madden, Jimenez finds some command, etc....

I am going to go out on a limb....the more I contemplate how unlikely it is that they will get one of the top SS, and would have to settle for DeJong, and maybe Gomes at C, and maybe Cobb or some other stiff at SP, and given the elevated number of BB and HR allowed by the BP and likely regression there..... I think its probable that they make the above modest changes, and have a losing record next year, even if they have improvement from Mize and Manning (very likely), good years from Tork and Greene (at least likely), and no major new injuries.

The FA plan I listed above (Cobb, DeJong, Gomes) might if we are lucky be enough to get us a winning record, but probably not.  I hope they do a lot better in those particular slots and add more help, but I am not counting on it.

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I am going to go out on a limb....the more I contemplate how unlikely it is that they will get one of the top SS, and would have to settle for DeJong, and maybe Gomes at C, and maybe Cobb or some other stiff at SP, and given the elevated number of BB and HR allowed by the BP and likely regression there..... I think its probable that they make the above modest changes, and have a losing record next year, even if they have improvement from Mize and Manning (very likely), good years from Tork and Greene (at least likely), and no major new injuries.

The FA plan I listed above (Cobb, DeJong, Gomes) might if we are lucky be enough to get us a winning record, but probably not.  I hope they do a lot better in those particular slots and add more help, but I am not counting on it.

I think they'll find a way to cover SS, even if it's only a trade for a promotion ready AAA player. I'm more worried about catcher. Unless they get some miracle development from Dingler that gets him here mid-season, the cupboard is really bare - both in our system and the FA market. I think Eric Haase is a great story - I don't think he can be the anchor at catcher for a winning team. Hopefully he'll prove me wrong. My worry is that he's going to get the chance to....

Edited October 17, 2021 by gehringer_2