RandyMarsh Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 (edited) I don't understand the hatred for Baez. Yeah his OBP sucks and he Ks alot but he still produces above average offense due to his power and he plays excellent defense. We have some decent obp guys with Candy,Miggy,Grossman, and presumably Tork but what we don't have enough of is guys that will give you 25 plus bombs a year like Baez. I much prefer Seager and Correa but I don't think Baez is a bad consolation prize assuming he comes at a much lower rate than those guys. Edited October 29, 2021 by RandyMarsh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 If Baez plays to his career averages, he would be OK. His strikeouts are so extreme though, I could see him falling off a cliff pretty quickly. It's mostly a hunch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Also, the numbers indicate that Baez has fallen far from his prime defensively. It now looks like he could be an average defensive shortstop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 40 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: I don't understand the hatred for Baez. Yeah his OBP sucks and he Ks alot but he still produces above average offense due to his power and he plays excellent defense. We have some decent obp guys with Candy,Miggy,Grossman, and presumably Tork but what we don't have enough of is guys that will give you 25 plus bombs a year like Baez. I much prefer Seager and Correa but I don't think Baez is a bad consolation prize assuming he comes at a much lower rate than those guys. I don't hate Baez, but I am more leery about giving a high K guy big dollars over a long term. And he's not a guy that Ks but also walks a lot. The idea being that if he already has trouble finding the ball at 28 what is going to be like at 32? Maybe it's not true that high K/BB guys hit the wall sooner career wise - I'd be willing to be persuaded by some numbers, but that would be my biggest reservation. If you could get him on a shorter commitment.....but we probably can't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 14 hours ago, RandyMarsh said: I don't understand the hatred for Baez. Yeah his OBP sucks and he Ks alot but he still produces above average offense due to his power and he plays excellent defense. We have some decent obp guys with Candy,Miggy,Grossman, and presumably Tork but what we don't have enough of is guys that will give you 25 plus bombs a year like Baez. I much prefer Seager and Correa but I don't think Baez is a bad consolation prize assuming he comes at a much lower rate than those guys. He's limited on tools and I think he is being swept up into the SS FA frenzy because of the timing of his FA. You mention his OBP sucks and he Ks a lot but still has power. What happens if he loses his power? How much salary should a defense only SS get? Or, what happens when his defense regresses and he becomes a middle infielder with power being his calling card? What will his worth be then compared to his salary? Does his bat play if//when he has to move from SS to 2B/3B? I guess my point is I think he's a pretty incomplete player and I would imagine he is probably going to get a long term deal. He just seems to risky to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microline133 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, casimir said: He's limited on tools and I think he is being swept up into the SS FA frenzy because of the timing of his FA. You mention his OBP sucks and he Ks a lot but still has power. What happens if he loses his power? How much salary should a defense only SS get? Or, what happens when his defense regresses and he becomes a middle infielder with power being his calling card? What will his worth be then compared to his salary? Does his bat play if//when he has to move from SS to 2B/3B? I guess my point is I think he's a pretty incomplete player and I would imagine he is probably going to get a long term deal. He just seems to risky to me. We can debate how Baez stacks up to other shortstops in this free agent class, but to say he's limited on tools is pretty incorrect. Even with a step back defensively this year, he's still an average or better glove that I think bounces back to plus. He has easy plus power, plus speed, and an easy plus arm, all with tremendous game instincts. The hit tool can be an issue at times but he likely hits enough for the next 4-5 years for his speed and power to still be a factor. He may be a step down from Correa/Seager, but let's not pretend he's not an impact player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, microline133 said: he likely hits enough for the next 4-5 years I'm not sure there is ever a FA out there really worth signing for more than 5 yrs. The out year risks on guys old enough to have reached FA are too extreme for my blood. Even Lindor, who looked more a slam dunk last year than I think any of these guys do this year, has to return the lowest full season WAR of his career! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, microline133 said: We can debate how Baez stacks up to other shortstops in this free agent class, but to say he's limited on tools is pretty incorrect. Even with a step back defensively this year, he's still an average or better glove that I think bounces back to plus. He has easy plus power, plus speed, and an easy plus arm, all with tremendous game instincts. The hit tool can be an issue at times but he likely hits enough for the next 4-5 years for his speed and power to still be a factor. He may be a step down from Correa/Seager, but let's not pretend he's not an impact player. Personally I wouldn't spend much money on a 30% SO, .300 OBP bat. His OPS is based a lot on ISO and BABIP. If/when those normalize to league average, what kind of bat will he be then? There's no argument about his game instincts. That can help a player make up for aging skills. The rundown he got into running to 1B allowing a runner from 3B to score was something that has to be seen, describing it doesn't do justice. But how far can that take him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 16 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: I don't hate Baez, but I am more leery about giving a high K guy big dollars over a long term. And he's not a guy that Ks but also walks a lot. The idea being that if he already has trouble finding the ball at 28 what is going to be like at 32? Maybe it's not true that high K/BB guys hit the wall sooner career wise - I'd be willing to be persuaded by some numbers, but that would be my biggest reservation. If you could get him on a shorter commitment.....but we probably can't. I couldn't find anything recent, but according to the study below, the peak for batting average occurs at age 28 on average while the peak for walk rate is 32. That is a pretty big difference and it does suggest that batters who don't make contact and don't draw walks may peak early. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/ Additionally, fielding skills drop earlier and maybe more steeply than hitting skills: https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/05/08/a-closer-look-at-defensive-aging-curves/ Based on all of this, it seems that Baez' skill set may not age well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Huge long term contracts would be forbidden if it was my $$$. There are so many options to put a team together why commit 10 years. Lindor was average this year and they still have 300 mil + on the books. Gerritt Cole slumped and now he as 36 mil/year for the next 7 years ? It can work..Trout..Max..but even then injuries take a toll. Can any human really stay motivated year round with 300 million in your pocket ? That takes a very disciplined human being. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: Huge long term contracts would be forbidden if it was my $$$. There are so many options to put a team together why commit 10 years. Lindor was average this year and they still have 300 mil + on the books. Gerritt Cole slumped and now he as 36 mil/year for the next 7 years ? It can work..Trout..Max..but even then injuries take a toll. Can any human really stay motivated year round with 300 million in your pocket ? That takes a very disciplined human being. If they love what they do and are highly competitive, then yes they can stay motivated. I think money is not that big of a motivator for competitive athletes. I know elite runners who put their entire life into the sport with no hopes of making any significant money from it. Having wealth would just give them more time to perfect their craft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tramlou Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: Huge long term contracts would be forbidden if it was my $$$. There are so many options to put a team together why commit 10 years. Lindor was average this year and they still have 300 mil + on the books. Gerritt Cole slumped and now he as 36 mil/year for the next 7 years ? It can work..Trout..Max..but even then injuries take a toll. Can any human really stay motivated year round with 300 million in your pocket ? That takes a very disciplined human being. Agreed. And I'm not even against high AAV, it's number of years. Nothing over 4 maybe 5 years and then go out and land another big fish in the same manner. The days of paying for past performance should be long gone now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gilmore Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 I think the athletes view the contracts they sign as another competition. They want to win that challenge, as well as it being a reward/affirmation thing. Once signed I think they generally just focus on their normal playing and game competitiveness. Some might slack a bit, I doubt it’s the norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said: I think the athletes view the contracts they sign as another competition. They want to win that challenge, as well as it being a reward/affirmation thing. Once signed I think they generally just focus on their normal playing and game competitiveness. Some might slack a bit, I doubt it’s the norm. I agree. Just by nature these guys are competitive as hell or else they wouldn't have gotten as far as they have so they are always going to want to be the best they can be. Look at Miggy for example, yeah he has sucked since he signed his contract but it isn't due to lack of effort. He has constantly played through injuries where he could've just sat out and collected a pay check. If you follow his social media during the offseason you will constantly see him "putting in work" as well. These guys don't want to embarrass themselves out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 On 10/29/2021 at 6:04 PM, RandyMarsh said: I don't understand the hatred for Baez. Yeah his OBP sucks and he Ks alot but he still produces above average offense due to his power and he plays excellent defense. We have some decent obp guys with Candy,Miggy,Grossman, and presumably Tork but what we don't have enough of is guys that will give you 25 plus bombs a year like Baez. I much prefer Seager and Correa but I don't think Baez is a bad consolation prize assuming he comes at a much lower rate than those guys. Baez problem is the side numbers are good and he basically has one tool. Power. When that goes he's gonna be near useless. Not to mention how much is he gonna fit in with AJ? https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31683889/chicago-cubs-javier-baez-benched-manager-david-ross-losing-track-outs-defeat#:~:text=CHICAGO -- Cubs shortstop Javier,loss to the Cleveland Indians.&text=Baez said he was "surprised,pulled but accepted the punishment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 (edited) 10 hours ago, microline133 said: We can debate how Baez stacks up to other shortstops in this free agent class, but to say he's limited on tools is pretty incorrect. Even with a step back defensively this year, he's still an average or better glove that I think bounces back to plus. He has easy plus power, plus speed, and an easy plus arm, all with tremendous game instincts. The hit tool can be an issue at times but he likely hits enough for the next 4-5 years for his speed and power to still be a factor. He may be a step down from Correa/Seager, but let's not pretend he's not an impact player. I agree with you on Javy’s tools, and the potential they provide for him to make an impact. But after having watched him pretty closely for several years, i can tell you that Javy also has what used to be called a ten-cent head. He lets his emotions get the better of him too often and it does sometimes affect his play on the field. Just this year he lost track of the number of outs while he was on base and got himself doubled up to end the inning. He also has a hero complex that leads him to swing for the fences when just getting on base would be enough. All you have to do as a pitcher in those situations is throw the ball a foot off the plate and Javy will get himself out. He’s also a guy who will carry a grudge and will act out that grudge on the field. You can ask Amir Garrett about that. All that said, and in spite of his flaws, he’s been a 5-6 win player over the past few seasons. If he comes to Detroit and AJ can baby him the way he needs to be, Javy Baez could be a 5-win player for the Tigers for another three, four, maybe more, seasons. You’ll love love love him when he’s going great, and you’ll cringe when he’s struggling. But believe me when I tell you this: you will be entertained. Edited October 31, 2021 by chasfh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 17 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: Can any human really stay motivated year round with 300 million in your pocket ? That takes a very disciplined human being. I'm willing to be a test case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 3 hours ago, casimir said: I'm willing to be a test case. Hey - the line forms on the left, buddy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 13 hours ago, casimir said: I'm willing to be a test case. 9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Hey - the line forms on the left, buddy! Wait, why are we taking a pay cut? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djhutch Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 On 10/30/2021 at 5:07 PM, Dan Gilmore said: I think the athletes view the contracts they sign as another competition. They want to win that challenge, as well as it being a reward/affirmation thing. Once signed I think they generally just focus on their normal playing and game competitiveness. Some might slack a bit, I doubt it’s the norm. I don't mean this politically, but the competition angle from the players is most assuredly a product of the player's union, which fights tooth & nail for salaries to continue to climb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, djhutch said: I don't mean this politically, but the competition angle from the players is most assuredly a product of the player's union, which fights tooth & nail for salaries to continue to climb. I think you both are right. They want high salaries to confirm their greatness and to also raise the floor for the guys that come after. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Just a great image 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 By far Al's best free agent signing... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 2 hours ago, romad1 said: Just a great image I've been reading about the likely award winners and contenders for 2021 and I have not seen AJ Hinch's name mentioned as a candidate for Manager of the Year. Kevin Cash will get it, and deserves it, but no mention of Hinch? It's got to be because of the Astros scandal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: I've been reading about the likely award winners and contenders for 2021 and I have not seen AJ Hinch's name mentioned as a candidate for Manager of the Year. Kevin Cash will get it, and deserves it, but no mention of Hinch? It's got to be because of the Astros scandal. It's because they only won 77 games. Deserved or not, nobody is going to win an award with a below .500 record. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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