2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[SoCalTiger]

After Tork and Greene  Kreidler, Santana, Dingler, Segura, Breiske and Jobe seem to have the best "press", early stats, and look good on the limited film. I am hoping Al passed on Mayer because the organization feels Santana is just as good. 

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

To me development is different from talent acquisition. I don’t think players are finished products.  The skill isn’t finding the diamond in the rough. It’s creating it from what you acquired. It’s being good enough to have 3-4 guys in your lineup that are slightly above league average at any given time. Then you use your free agent guys to build around them rather than building around the free agents. Some orgs are consistently better at that and it’s not because they tank and fall into high draft picks.  The tigers didn’t suffer during the recent “golden era” because they sacrificed some high picks for signings. It’s because they didn’t develop average players from the lower rounds.  

I agree with that, and in the last 40 years there have been, as far as I can recall, 3 players who were drafted and developed who meet your definition of "above average": Travis Fryman, Bobby Higginson, and Curtis Granderson.  That's it, 3 guys in 40 years.  Pretty tough to hang all that on Chris Ilitch.

[gehringer_2]

45 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Does analytical also apply to drafting ? Maybe that's why the Dodgers always have a deep farm system despite drafting low every year. If that is the case, I do not know , maybe we will choose better and have deeper farm ?

You hope there is some truth to this - that as they get better at improving the players they pick, it feeds back into the scouting process with the data about what kinds of players they have been able to do the most to optimize and that becomes part of your competitive advantage

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by gehringer_2

[RandyMarsh]

From what I understand just like all other facets of running an organization the Dodgers spend many times the amount on scouting and development as other teams so that is another reason why they always have a deep system.  

[gehringer_2]

22 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

From what I understand just like all other facets of running an organization the Dodgers spend many times the amount on scouting and development as other teams so that is another reason why they always have a deep system.  

It will be interesting to see how much the Dodgers regret the $$ they committed to Mookie Betts. So far they've paid Betts $50M to produce less than 4 WAR more than Alex Verdugo. Even rich teams will eventually suffer from those moves.

[Cruzer1]

5 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

Does analytical also apply to drafting ? Maybe that's why the Dodgers always have a deep farm system despite drafting low every year. If that is the case, I do not know , maybe we will choose better and have deeper farm ?

They kill the draft, and international signing.

[Cruzer1]

1 hour ago, Cruzer1 said:

They kill the draft, and international signing.

They're basically the Tampa Rays without the extra picks, but with a whole lot more revenue to play with.

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

It feels like if Torklegreene flops, we might be in the shitter for another 5-7 years.    Empty suit ain't gonna really spend.  

I think the only way those two kids flop is if they are chronically injured. As long as they can stay on the field, they are going to improve and produce for the next few years.

I also believe the organization is getting themselves into a position where they don’t have to put all their eggs in a basket of two players and cross their fingers so they can win every decade or two. It looks to me they are building a sustainable system of player identification and development that will outlast Tork’s and Riley’s tenure with the team.

As down as I have been on this owner and organization over the past five years, I am right chuffed to be able to say this and mean it!

[Motor City Sonics]

30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think the only way those two kids flop is if they are chronically injured. As long as they can stay on the field, they are going to improve and produce for the next few years.

I also believe the organization is getting themselves into a position where they don’t have to put all their eggs in a basket of two players and cross their fingers so they can win every decade or two. It looks to me they are building a sustainable system of player identification and development that will outlast Tork’s and Riley’s tenure with the team.

As down as I have been on this owner and organization over the past five years, I am right chuffed to be able to say this and mean it!

I hope you're right, but I am extremely worried that as long as Chris Illitch owns this team, we're not really anything but something to do to pass the time in the Summer.     And I'm even talking about the Carlos Correa thing.  I think he used the Tigers and Hinch as leverage and was never coming here.  Fine.  There is just as much a chance that Minnesota regrets the signing than celebrates division titles.   He was the best of the bunch at a position of need, but 35 million a year for that guy?   I've seen his numbers and he's good, but he's not a superstar.   

[oblong]

7 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

I agree with that, and in the last 40 years there have been, as far as I can recall, 3 players who were drafted and developed who meet your definition of "above average": Travis Fryman, Bobby Higginson, and Curtis Granderson.  That's it, 3 guys in 40 years.  Pretty tough to hang all that on Chris Ilitch.

and to be honest I wasn't even thinking as good as Fryman and Granderson.  I'm thinking guys like Brandon Inge, Matt Joyce, Alex Avila... 

 

 

[Stanley70]

The Tigers were clearly for many years underfunding the scouting and development staffs. Ownership probably deserves some of that blame. I don't know if they were diverting money from that side to free agents, but they were behind other teams.

The less payroll a team has to work with the more pressure it puts on the development side, so moving forward the will have to get up to speed and pour resources into those areas or there will be more frequent rebuilds. It sounds like they starting to build those areas but proof will be when we see true development success's become more frequent than once every 5 years or so.

 

[Shinzaki]

I'm encouraged by the increase in spending on tech and the emphasis on finding instructors who can use the data to develop players.  I'm most encouraged by the institution of a detailed development plan for everyone in the system.

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think the only way those two kids flop is if they are chronically injured. As long as they can stay on the field, they are going to improve and produce for the next few years.

 

I don't think they'll flop, but I think if we expect both of them to be stars, we will probabably be disappointed.  If one becomes an all-star and other becomes a good regular long term, we should probably be happy.  As you say, injuries are always a risk too.  

[RatkoVarda]

10 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

From what I understand just like all other facets of running an organization the Dodgers spend many times the amount on scouting and development as other teams so that is another reason why they always have a deep system.  

its just one draft, but

in 2016, the tigers, without 2nd and 3rd round picks, seemingly scored with Manning, Funk and 4 guys who had a cup of coffee. that's not bad considering how some other years went

the Dodgers? well, 13 players they signed made the majors (though not all with them) and some more might still pop up

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=LAD&year_ID=2016&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think they'll flop, but I think if we expect both of them to be stars, we will probabably be disappointed.  If one becomes an all-star and other becomes a good regular long term, we should probably be happy.  As you say, injuries are always a risk too.  

I do think Greene is about as sure a bet as we have seen in a long time to  be a well above replacement hitter. I'm not sure what kind of average Torkelson will hit for but the plate discipline and power are real, so I expect a good OPB and some HR so that should keep his OPS afloat. Of course in a 1B that is a minimum expectation.

[Tiger337]

55 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I do think Greene is about as sure a bet as we have seen in a long time to  be a well above replacement hitter. I'm not sure what kind of average Torkelson will hit for but the plate discipline and power are real, so I expect a good OPB and some HR so that should keep his OPS afloat. Of course in a 1B that is a minimum expectation.

I think they are both good bets to be at least average hitters at their positions. Greene is supposed to be more ready at this time, but I don't have an opinion as to which one has a better chance to be star long term.  My bold prediction is that Torkelson will be better, but that is based on nothing.   

[Tigeraholic1]

Just another insane Miggy stat:

 

 

[RandyMarsh]

Just saw on twitter that Tim Anderson has to miss the first 2 games of the regular season due to a carry over suspension from last year, we of course start the season with the White Sox so it's nice to know that we won't be seeing him kill us the first 2 games of the seasons.

[KL2]

11 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Just saw on twitter that Tim Anderson has to miss the first 2 games of the regular season due to a carry over suspension from last year, we of course start the season with the White Sox so it's nice to know that we won't be seeing him kill us the first 2 games of the seasons.

They'll just sign Luke Scott for 2 games. 

[JackPine]

That reminds me, I forgot to celebrate that Nelson Cruz is in the other league! 17 years and he's finally gone!

 

[sabretooth]

They should really consider acquiring Conforto for 2 years and have Conforto steal some of Haase, Miggy's, and the Bench's near-replacement PAs with Conforto's likely plus hitting.  Projections have him at $18M/year, which would raise the Tigers' payroll from $116M - $134M, right at the league average.

The lineup is projected by Steamer/ZIPS/FG to have fairly nominal output in terms of RC at every position, except DH (2021 RC in parenthesis):

C: Barnhardt: 35-37 (42)

1B: Tork: 80-84 (X)

2B: Schoop: 75-80 (87)

SS: Baez: 73-80 (80)

3B: Candy: 82-86 (91)

LF: Grossman: 77-81 (94)

CF: Greene: 64-71 (X)

RF: Baddoo: 69-84 (61)

DH: Miggy: 50-65 (60)

C/Bench: Haase: 28-40

Rest: about 50

They are projected to have a 4.34 ERA over 1458 IP = 709 ERA + 75 UERA = **784 RA**

2021 (515) + Tork 2022 low end (80) + Greene 2022 low end (64) + Rest (50) = 709 (74 pythag wins)

2022 low end (633) + Rest (50) = 683 (71 pythag wins)

2022 high end (708) + Rest (50) = 758 (79 pythag wins)

Conforto is projected to have 540 PAs or so and 75-80 RCs....the Bench, Miggy and Haase would produce about 30-50 over that span.

Conforto's extra 30-50 RCs vs. Miggy/Haase/Bench guys would equal about 3 - 5 wins.  That alone could make the difference between a 75-80 win team struggling to win and an 80-85 win team on the cusp of the playoffs.

Of course FG could be underrating our pitching, but I wouldn't count on our pitching overperforming.

It's time to add that bat.  Now.  They probably won't do it, but they should.  You don't have the opportunity for a winning season all of the time, and this is one of those seasons.  They should make another move now.

Edited March 31, 2022 by sabretooth

[1984Echoes]

Nah.

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

They should really consider acquiring Conforto for 2 years and have Conforto steal some of Haase, Miggy's, and the Bench's near-replacement PAs with Conforto's likely plus hitting.  Projections have him at $18M/year, which would raise the Tigers' payroll from $116M - $134M, right at the league average.

The lineup is projected by Steamer/ZIPS/FG to have fairly nominal output in terms of RC at every position, except DH (2021 RC in parenthesis):

😄 Barnhardt: 35-37 (42)

1B: Tork: 80-84 (X)

2B: Schoop: 75-80 (87)

SS: Baez: 73-80 (80)

3B: Candy: 82-86 (91)

LF: Grossman: 77-81 (94)

CF: Greene: 64-71 (X)

RF: Baddoo: 69-84 (61)

DH: Miggy: 50-65 (60)

C/Bench: Haase: 28-40

Rest: about 50

They are projected to have a 4.34 ERA over 1458 IP = 709 ERA + 75 UERA = **784 RA**

2021 (515) + Tork 2022 low end (80) + Greene 2022 low end (64) + Rest (50) = 709 (74 pythag wins)

2022 low end (633) + Rest (50) = 683 (71 pythag wins)

2022 high end (708) + Rest (50) = 758 (79 pythag wins)

Conforto is projected to have 540 PAs or so and 75-80 RCs....the Bench, Miggy and Haase would produce about 30-50 over that span.

Conforto's extra 30-50 RCs vs. Miggy/Haase/Bench guys would equal about 3 - 5 wins.  That alone could make the difference between a 75-80 win team struggling to win and an 80-85 win team on the cusp of the playoffs.

Of course FG could be underrating our pitching, but I wouldn't count on our pitching overperforming.

It's time to add that bat.  Now.  They probably won't do it, but they should.  You don't have the opportunity for a winning season all of the time, and this is one of those seasons.  They should make another move now.

I thought Conforto was a good idea going into the winter, but he had an off year last year and hurt his shoulder in January.  He is supposedly healthy now, but I could see him being a problem.  If they can get him on a year deal, then sure.  

[RandyMarsh]

lol At the time of the name chance I saw several people half jokingly say things like "well atleast now they won't have to change all the letters in the clubhouse." Little did they know that it would actually happen. 

Edited March 31, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[gehringer_2]

Hill hits another speed bump - sore hammy. Hinch saying they won't know if he's going to miss time until they check tomorrow - as per Freep.