NYLion Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Betrayer said: Actually, it's not as bad as you'd think. It's easy to look in hindsight and find a guy or two picked later that broke out. That happens in every draft. But we're talking about picks 7, 16, and 19. Based upon data from 82games.com, here's what you can expect from those picks... (https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm) Pick 7: 30% Star, 40% Solid, 25% Role Player, 5% Deep Bench --Killian looks like he'll fall in as a Role Player, but some believe he still has a chance to be a Solid NBA backup. Either way, I'd call it below average for this draft spot. Of all his draft picks, this was the lowest return vs average. Pick 16: 5% Star, 25% Solid, 30% Role Player, 25% Deep Bench, 15% Bust --Stewart is looking like he'll be in the role player section, which is slightly above average for this draft spot. Pick 19: 5% Star, 15% Solid, 20% Role Player, 50% Deep Bench, 10% Bust --Bey is currently in the Role Player section, which is really good for this draft spot. Although he could move into the Solid spot with the right coaching/system. Either way, this is well above average for that spot in the draft where you have a 60% chance to get a deep bench or bust. So, Weaver didn't hit it out of the park with these picks, but overall he was probably slightly above average or at least on the averages when you add it all up. When you factor in that everyone knew this was a historically weak draft, he did fine. Not great, but fine. Then, in 2021 Cade was clearly the pick that everyone was taking at #1, so nothing to talk about there. I guess you could credit him for not overthinking it. In 2022, he took Ivey and got one of the steals of the draft in Duren at pick 13. Obviously we can't fully judge these picks for a couple more years, but it's looking pretty good so far. Overall, I think his drafting has been very good. My concerns are actually more around roster composition (identity/vision) and some of his asset management (such as the Plumlee debacle). The problem is that Weaver gave up assets to acquire the Bey and Stewart picks so I don't think you can look at the success rate of those draft positions in isolation. Granted, the Bey assets were fairly inconsequential depending on what one thinks of Kennard but that 1st rounder given up for Stewart is still handcuffing them from making any real trades because they don't have a 1st to trade until it conveys so while Stewart is somewhat covering the bet for a player picked in that range, I think I'd rather have the 1st to use as trade bait going forward. Then there's Killian who some are fawning over him as much improved but in reality, he went from a non-NBA player to a barely NBA player. In any event, I'm still fine with the direction this is moving in but that 2020 draft really set this thing back. Nothing short of Wiseman panning out is likely to save that draft class from being considered a bust overall since I think Stewart has a limited ceiling. Edited February 15, 2023 by NYLion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betrayer Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Completely agree with both of your points on the assets given up for those picks and Weaver's asset management in general. My point was simply that his drafting itself has been solid - no GM hits on every pick and he's done better than average on most of his picks. I even forgot to mention Livers at pick 42 who looks like he could be a good Role Player in the league when 75% of picks at that spot are garbage or never even play a game. Weaver certainly has faults that are starting to add up, but I don't think his drafting is one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Betrayer said: Then, in 2021 Cade was clearly the pick that everyone was taking at #1, so nothing to talk about there. I guess you could credit him for not overthinking it. Cade could still disappoint. He has to become a more consistent shooter than he has shown to justify having been 1/1 Edited February 15, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Why does a GM get a complete pass when a “no brainer” pick that everyone would’ve made doesn’t pan out. I never understand why we as fans do this and it happens in all sports. The GM of the franchise needs to be accountable for everything. That’s part of the job. Sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don’t. If he’s unlucky, it’s still on him. They are judged on results and not best intentions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Betrayer said: .... My concerns are actually more around roster composition (identity/vision) and some of his asset management (such as the Plumlee debacle). And the thing about these are (let me break down my "phase" 2 and 3's down a bit more): Phase 2 talent acquisition is really: 2A) Acquire talent. 2B) Develop talent. Phase 3 competitive team is really: 3A) Fit roster pieces together and trade for fits/ improvements 3B) Chase playoffs/ pennants/ championships. I think we're really in 2B phase, especially after this summer's draft, as they need to develop all of these kids. I think your concerns on construction is really 3A... in which we are almost there (or already in the case of refusing to trade Bojan or Burks because they provide not just leadership, but the skills this team is currently missing with all these young guys: shooting skills/ range). I think concerns on roster composition are still premature. But not by much. Or maybe even not really... in the sense that these kids need to show what they've got, in terms of skill on the court, and what we are still missing. And only then does Weaver have to maneuver in order to put the right guys together to round out a truly competitive team. But first... these kids still have steep learning curves in order to do that. To show what their best is, on the court, and tell management what complimentary skills are missing and are needed to round out the team. Especially: 2023 draft pick, Wiseman, Cade, Duren and Ivey. These are the key guys for us in the future (at least at this point). Short answer (to me): still too much learning to do before criticisms of construction can even begin. It's the next step, aside from development. But we still have to get through the development first. As for asset management: to me, that's water under the bridge. As far as I'm concerned, Weaver did what he needed to do in order to fix the talent deficiency, crappy vet/ crappy contract situations. When this team gets good... that's when I'll start to worry about asset/ cap management. Just my 2 cents. Edited February 15, 2023 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, NYLion said: ... Granted, the Bey assets were fairly inconsequential depending on what one thinks of Kennard but that 1st rounder given up for Stewart is still handcuffing them from making any real trades because they don't have a 1st to trade until it conveys so while Stewart is somewhat covering the bet for a player picked in that range, I think I'd rather have the 1st to use as trade bait going forward... I forgot what the projections are on this pick but I think in 2025 it drops to top 9 or 12 or something... We might keep our 2024 pick as this team will be trying to learn how to win games whiler getting all these kids to improve... So, if we don't convey the pick after the 2024 season (I think there's a reasonable chance it conveys in 2024 as a top-18? protected pick.. IDK... 10% + chance?), I think there's a VERY good chance that it conveys after 2025. Then freeing up any future 1sts if we needed them in any additional trade scenarios... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: I forgot what the projections are on this pick but I think in 2025 it drops to top 9 or 12 or something... We might keep our 2024 pick as this team will be trying to learn how to win games whiler getting all these kids to improve... So, if we don't convey the pick after the 2024 season (I think there's a reasonable chance it conveys in 2024 as a top-18? protected pick.. IDK... 10% + chance?), I think there's a VERY good chance that it conveys after 2025. Then freeing up any future 1sts if we needed them in any additional trade scenarios... The Pistons set heavy protections on the future first-round pick, which is now owed to the Thunder: 1-16 in 2021 and 2022, 1-18 in 2023-24, 1-13 in 2025, 1-11 in 2026 and 1-9 in 2027. If Detroit has not conveyed a first-rounder to OKC by 2027, it will instead convey its 2027 second-round pick to OKC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 they also traded away christian wood in that deal. wood, a first round pick and a second round pick for stewart, trevor ariza and a second round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 51 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Cade could still disappoint. He has to become a more consistent shooter than he has shown to justify having been 1/1 I thought his 3-point range/ shooting was supposed to be so much better than what we've seen. If he could raise that part of his game to an elite level (40% +/- shooting on 3's) I think he would more than justify his selection. He'll never be an elite athlete or defender... but as long as he gives his all on D and takes a jump in his shooting - no guarantees on anything except I believe he's the "committed" sort who will definitely work on these parts of his game - I can live with who he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 minute ago, buddha said: they also traded away christian wood in that deal. wood, a first round pick and a second round pick for stewart, trevor ariza and a second round pick. Was there some kind of issue with Wood? Coaching-wise? Because I liked Wood from that 3 and D perspective. Or was it simply a cap-crunch thing where Weaver was cornered into making a move like that in order to reset the cap, reset the talent age on the team, and he also loved Stew enough to take that type of risk for that pick/ selection? Which makes it more complicated than i originally intended... as just a cap move... Just wondering... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) I actually like Cade and think he will get to star level. Still in a results world without excuses and caveats, he’s been outperformed by Green, Mobley, Barnes, Giddey, and even Wagner. At least for the time being, there can’t be a free pass for that on Weaver. Edited February 15, 2023 by Hongbit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Hongbit said: Why does a GM get a complete pass when a “no brainer” pick that everyone would’ve made doesn’t pan out. I never understand why we as fans do this and it happens in all sports. The GM of the franchise needs to be accountable for everything. That’s part of the job. Sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don’t. If he’s unlucky, it’s still on him. They are judged on results and not best intentions. Is this in reference to Cade? He was definitely not a "no brainer", Mobley and Green had good cases to go #1. Regardless, it remains to be seen if Cade was even the right pick until he can prove to be healthy. 2 fairly significant injuries in 2 years is concerning so Weaver shouldn't get credit for Cade either until he proves something. I'm a big fan of his upside but he needs to get, and stay, on the court. Edited February 15, 2023 by NYLion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 The biggest question about the Cade pick to me is what was offered to him that he turned down? There were rumors of Houston wanting to give up a bunch to swap picks and even OKC giving up SGA, 7th pick and possibly more. If Cade doesn't turn into that superstar we hoped and there was legitimacy to some of the offers than that will be a major kick in the nuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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