Mr.TaterSalad Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 I did a mock with no trades and tried to be semi-realistic. I'd be thrilled with the first 3 picks if the real draft played out this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRamage Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 I tried Profootball Network's draft sim... um... I think it's kinda broken. I got offered so many trades, here's the results of round 1: Note also that the Lions also picked up a few picks for next year: Jets' 6th round pick Panther's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRamage Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Just did it again for a full 7 rounds... note that I only accepted trades that were offered to me. I did NOT propose or force anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djhutch Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 On 3/24/2022 at 2:39 PM, Motown Bombers said: Work ethic concerns worry me at the college level. See Nick Fairley. That's the big reason I thought Hutch was the best bet - if he makes it to us. He may not be the best player to come out of this draft - but nobody will outwork him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 Very Similar to Rashan Gary's RAS numbers . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 OE% 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 Report: Giants open to trading a 2022 first-round pick for one in 2023 If Holmes were SURE and it was just 1-for-1 then why not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 On 3/23/2022 at 5:25 PM, buddha said: i assume hamilton would be the "in the box" linebacker and walker would be your "centerfielder". hamilton would run with tight ends but is unlikely to be able to cover receivers. The Lions switch their safeties, so they have to do both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 12 hours ago, sagnam said: Report: Giants open to trading a 2022 first-round pick for one in 2023 If Holmes were SURE and it was just 1-for-1 then why not. Would they settle for the Rams pick? lol I might be willing to trade our own pick if I knew we were going to take Willis at 2 or the Giants pick. Reason being is that if that were the case then we wouldn't be in the market for a QB next draft so I wouldn't be as concerned with not having our own pick. If we made the trade and didn't take Willis then come next draft we would still be without a future QB and with us only having the Rams pick which will likely be at the end of the 1st we would have a hard time being able to draft that guy next year either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 Of course if you're of the belief that the team can win with Goff if we put enough talent around him so no need to draft a qb then having 2 top 6 picks and 4 in the top 34 would be awfully appealing. Adding for instance Thibs/Walker/Hamilton, Drake London and whoever you prefer at 32 and 34 could really transform this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stanley70 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 28 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: The Lions switch their safeties, so they have to do both. Agreed, plus the run a ton of two high, which Hamilton is not elite at. IMO the Lions will value him less than the edge guys, so i doubt they will take him at 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 more espn guys mocking willis to the lions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 (edited) Of course Willis looked amazing at his Pro Day, lots of guys do. He looked amazing in a highly controlled environment. An environment with no defensive hands in his face, no one trying to bring him down to the ground, no having to look off multiple receivers downfield, no one playing at NFL game speed, and no having to change the play at the line. He had a 61% completion rate in college, was never asked to do anything complex as far as offensive playcalling goes, consistently threw the ball to the first read, locks onto a target and doesn't go through progressions, and hasn't shown a high football IQ where he can make split second adjustments and call the right audible at the line. I don't know what his football IQ is, he could be a Russell Wilson or Payton Manning for all I know, but I suspect not based on his colligate performance. The changes and "audibles" he does make are largely to get himself out of a tight situation with his athleticism and scramble his way out of it. As other mobile QBs have proven, you can't just scramble your way out of every situation in the NFL. These are not audibles where he's reading the defense, deciphering the right play to call and making the adjustment at the line with his teammates. If you could just plug in an athletic, mobile QB then over the years the Tyrod Taylor's, Mike Vick's, Vince Young's, Mike McMahon's and Johnny Manziel's of the world would be MVPs season after season. I love the physical tools, I love the cannon of an arm, I love the freakish athleticism, I love that he looked amazing at his Pro Day. I suspect all that falls apart during an actual NFL game and what you're left with is a mobile QB with a big arm, subpar decision making and average at best accuracy. Your left with a stronger armed Jalen Hurts or Tyrod Taylor. Edited March 26, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRamage Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 17 hours ago, sagnam said: Report: Giants open to trading a 2022 first-round pick for one in 2023 If Holmes were SURE and it was just 1-for-1 then why not. If they'd take the Rams pick, I'd do that instantly. But I'm guessing they would look for the Lions pick 'cause it'll likely be much higher. Could be (assuming this is true) they are trying to position themselves to be able to take the best QB option next year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 if the lions arent taking a qb this year, then they need all the assets going forward that they can get in order to trade up for a qb next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 If I can get 5 or 7 for next years first and I am confident in the pick then I would do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 2 hours ago, RedRamage said: If they'd take the Rams pick, I'd do that instantly. But I'm guessing they would look for the Lions pick 'cause it'll likely be much higher. Could be (assuming this is true) they are trying to position themselves to be able to take the best QB option next year? I would still do it. It would be the Lions betting on themselves. And I think they should do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 2 hours ago, buddha said: if the lions arent taking a qb this year, then they need all the assets going forward that they can get in order to trade up for a qb next year. This. Don’t play into the Giants’ hand. They know that teams who want a QB next year will need to pay a fortune to move up to 1 or 2. They will very possibly be in that boat, as will the Lions. It’s smart of them to try to gain more assets in preparation of doing so. If the Lions can do the same with #32, they should. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microline133 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Interesting look at the evolution of safety value. Pretty relevant if rumors of the Lions interest in Hamilton are to be believed. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/3/28/22996666/kyle-hamilton-nfl-draft-top-pick-safety-value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 if you're looking at the surplus value of each position drafted in respect to their contract value, safety is middle of the pack. btw, the lowest returns are running back, center, linebacker, corner, and tight end. remind me again who bob quinn drafted early for the lions? i'm not opposed to drafting hamilton because i'm not a scout, maybe he is really special? a lot of on line scout types seem to think so. and the nfl is changing (but will change again as offenses and defenses continue to adjust) and safeties are becoming more important in pass defense. that said, what is constant is the need for a qb, a guy who can protect that qb, a guy who can get open and catch what the qb throws, and on defense a guy who can put that qb on the ground. those are the guys that go #2 in the draft usually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 again, that's just one way to measure position value and draft position in the nfl. its not gospel. but one thing it does show is that drafting later round qbs is usually useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted March 28, 2022 Author Share Posted March 28, 2022 Over on Pride of Detroit one of the commentators posted the pass rushing stats on Hutch, Thibs, and Walker. Yikes, I knew Walker wasn't as productive as Hutch and Thibs, bit he was way behind on win rate and overall pass rush grade from the other too. As someone I believe referenced here earlier, he might be another Mike Mamula. I'm not all out on Walker by any means, but I think this showcases the clear difference there is between he and Hutch/Thibs. Pass rush win rate: Hutchinson - 25.4% Thibedeaux - 23.5% Walker - 10.8% Pass Rushing Grade: Hutchinson - 93.3 Thibedeaux - 91.5 Walker - 65.8 Percentage of the time lined up outside the OT: Hutchinson - 97% Thibedeaux - 93% Walker - 63% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 But also read the fine print... If Walker is outside the OT 63% of the time, then he's on the inside, between two OL'man, 37% of the time. Easy to get doubled. That changes the calculus and I'm not certain by how much... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: But also read the fine print... If Walker is outside the OT 63% of the time, then he's on the inside, between two OL'man, 37% of the time. Easy to get doubled. That changes the calculus and I'm not certain by how much... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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