2022 NFL Draft Thread

[Jason_R]

They’re not drafting Willis. 

Mark Brunell having a swooning fit over a swing pass? Smacks of a smokescreen. 

Brad Holmes has now been involved in two trades for Jared Goff. He believes in Jared Goff. (Whether or not he should is another question.)

Atlanta is now in the market for a QB. Mariota is a stopgap. Also in the market: Carolina, maybe Houston, Seattle, and Pittsburgh. Rhule is positioned to do something reckless. Who knows what Houston will do; maybe they’ll pick Willis just because he went to Liberty. Does Pete Carroll think Willis has the physical skills to emulate Russell Wilson? Would Mike Tomlin (who was at Willis’s pro day today) jump at the chance to replace his franchise QB… and coach a black QB?

Anyway, Willis is the only guy that anyone would go and get. Lots of teams are in a position to go and get him. And nobody is afraid JAX will take him. 

[1984Echoes]

If we're getting a King's Ransom for the #2 pick I'll take that too...

[TP_Fan]

I’ve stated a number of times, if Holmes doesn’t think Willis is the guy, then he should explore every opportunity to trade down. There is not one player I would want to take at number 2 outside of Hutch, and he will be gone it looks like.  If you can get yourself some more draft capital, I’d do it. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Pride of Detroit: Kyle Hamilton Vegas Odds Favorite For #2 Pick

This is how GM's get fired, with poor drafting and taking no regard for position value and only drafting the dude you want at a position of lesser impact and need. We've done it before with the TE position with guys like Ebron and Hockenson. We did it at CB with Okudah. The Jets did it with a guy like Jamal Adams at Safety. When you're building up a barren roster I get that you want the BPA and that you need help at pretty much every position. However, there are certain positions like QB, LT, DE/Edge Rusher, WR, that are priority positions into today's NFL. It just so happens the Lions have needs at every position sans LT.

I don't want a QB this year so count that out and I do think there is value to be had at WR all over this draft. But if they take a slower-end safety in Hamilton over one of pass rushers Hutchison, Walker or Thibodeaux I'm going to be really disappointed. It's not to say Hamilton won't be a nice player or even a dominate Safety. But when you're a team that can't get after the QB and you have to play Aaron Rodgers twice in a season, passing on a DE/Edge Rusher when there are 3 top guys at that spot won't cut it for me.

Edited March 23, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[buddha]

6 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Pride of Detroit: Kyle Hamilton Vegas Odds Favorite For #2 Pick

This is how GM's get fired, with poor drafting and taking no regard for position value and only drafting the dude you want at a position of lesser impact and need. We've done it before with the TE position with guys like Ebron and Hockenson. We did it at CB with Okudah. The Jets did it with a guy like Jamal Adams at Safety. When you're building up a barren roster I get that you want the BPA and that you need help at pretty much every position. However, there are certain positions like QB, LT, DE/Edge Rusher, WR, that are priority positions into today's NFL. It just so happens the Lions have needs at every position sans LT.

I don't want a QB this year so count that out and I do think there is value to be had at WR all over this draft. But if they take a slower-end safety in Hamilton over one of pass rushers Hutchison, Walker or Thibodeaux I'm going to be really disappointed. It's not to say Hamilton won't be a nice player or even a dominate Safety. But when you're a team that can't get after the QB and you have to play Aaron Rodgers twice in a season, passing on a DE/Edge Rusher when there are 3 top guys at that spot won't cut it for me.

ragnow too.  i know he's a really good player but he's a center.  not exactly a premium position.  but that was bob quinn and bob quinn was bad at his job.

[Motown Bombers]

11 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Pride of Detroit: Kyle Hamilton Vegas Odds Favorite For #2 Pick

This is how GM's get fired, with poor drafting and taking no regard for position value and only drafting the dude you want at a position of lesser impact and need. We've done it before with the TE position with guys like Ebron and Hockenson. We did it at CB with Okudah. The Jets did it with a guy like Jamal Adams at Safety. When you're building up a barren roster I get that you want the BPA and that you need help at pretty much every position. However, there are certain positions like QB, LT, DE/Edge Rusher, WR, that are priority positions into today's NFL. It just so happens the Lions have needs at every position sans LT.

I don't want a QB this year so count that out and I do think there is value to be had at WR all over this draft. But if they take a slower-end safety in Hamilton over one of pass rushers Hutchison, Walker or Thibodeaux I'm going to be really disappointed. It's not to say Hamilton won't be a nice player or even a dominate Safety. But when you're a team that can't get after the QB and you have to play Aaron Rodgers twice in a season, passing on a DE/Edge Rusher when there are 3 top guys at that spot won't cut it for me.

Looking at the 2017 draft, the Jets certainly should have taken Mahomes or Watson, but I don't see anyone else I would rather have drafted than Adams. The Jets were even able to trade him for multiple 1st round picks. 

[RandyMarsh]

Yes not all safeties are created equal, just cause it has an S next to your name doesnt mean that it what you play every snap. Hamilton can play in the box as a run stopper, make plays as a centerfielder, play a good slot corner and many folks think he is going to make a great pass rusher, much in the mold of Adams.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

31 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Looking at the 2017 draft, the Jets certainly should have taken Mahomes or Watson, but I don't see anyone else I would rather have drafted than Adams. The Jets were even able to trade him for multiple 1st round picks. 

I would have taken Jonathan Allen or TJ Watt. Probably Watt in hindsight, but I would have taken Allen over Adams at the time. Also, the Seahawks were dumb for making that traded. They needed those picks to bolster their Oline, LT no less, for Russ and instead wasted them on a Safety.

Edited March 23, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Stanley70]

29 minutes ago, buddha said:

ragnow too.  i know he's a really good player but he's a center.  not exactly a premium position.  but that was bob quinn and bob quinn was bad at his job.

And in the second round in his 5 drafts he took two running backs, a run stuffing DL, and those were his good picks. When he did take a premium position they were instabusts in Tabor and Tavia.

Edited March 23, 2022 by Stanley70

[TP_Fan]

So it seems pretty obvious to me that trading down is the optimal route.  WRs are gonna go quick.  Why not go get the best one in either London or Wilson?  If you can trade down to 9 with Seattle you could likely get some good return since they have a bunch of Denver picks.  That’s to say that Seattle likes Willis.

[buddha]

real men do seven round mocks.

[TP_Fan]

12 minutes ago, buddha said:

real men do seven round mocks.

Consider me non real. My limit is 3, then I can do a lot of them.  Trading down is too easy though.  Would Seattle even take that trade? They would have to live Willis. 

[RandyMarsh]

If they love Willis they would gladly sacrifice a 2nd to ensure him but I just don't see them being that in love with him. I think they are basically gonna play it like how we did a year ago, build up their team, finish near or at the bottom and maybe go get their future qb next draft. 

[RandyMarsh]

I think the team that would trade up for Willis is probably a team that has an older qb now that still plans on being half way decent next year to the point where Willis may be their best chance of getting their future qb. 

If you are tanking next year you might as well just either wait and see if he falls to you in this draft or just draft your qb next year. 

Of course if you are absolutely in love with him and think there isn't going to be a guy like him next year than that changes things but I just have a hard time believing that there are any teams that think that. 

[Stanley70]

If the Lions take Willis and he works out they are set up be very good for a while IMO. Next year they will have 2 first round picks and about 60 million in cap space to address the defense. Plus whatever they can get for Goff if he has a decent year.

Of course if Willis sucks they can hang onto Goff and keep looking. They will be like the Colts and hoping that a decent QB comes available every year.

[buddha]

53 minutes ago, TP_Fan said:

Consider me non real. My limit is 3, then I can do a lot of them.  Trading down is too easy though.  Would Seattle even take that trade? They would have to live Willis. 

trading down is ridiculous on those things, but its fun to play with.

[Shinzaki]

The debate over Hamilton reminds me a bit of the debate over Kyle Pitts.  It's hard to argue positional value when the guy you're evaluating isn't locked into a traditional position

[Motown Bombers]

Given the lack of high end prospects in this draft, I wouldn't be too disappointed if the Lions drafted Hamilton. I would be happier if they could trade back a couple spots and draft him. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RandyMarsh]

Outside of drafting another OT there's really nobody that I will be disappointed with at this point with the 2nd pick.

Not that I think all the players are going to be great but just about all of them have question marks to some degree and all of them have positives that you can point to as well so it would be hard to be upset with them taking any particular player over another.

The only way I would be upset is if it comes out that they turned down a good trade package for the pick only to take a Hamilton, Walker or Thibs. I could understand not doing it for Willis if they believed he was a franchise qb but to pass on it for any other position would upset me. 

[Motown Bombers]

In 2020 Jamal Adams had 9.5 sacks. I can see Hamilton being used in a similar fashion as a pass rusher. Hamilton seems to be the modern NFL defender. Quinn and Patricia were stuck in the 90's drafting the big body physical players like Tavai. If Hutchinson is off the board, I think I like Hamilton the best to be honest. I don't care that he is labeled a safety. 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[Mr.TaterSalad]

It's not just about drafting Hamilton, it's who they would pass over to do it and the positional value. It's the smartest guy in the room syndrome that has plagued this organization in the past, through different regimes. They needed a QB in 2005-2006 and took Ernie Sims and Mike Williams when they could have taken Aaron Rodgers or Jay Cutler. Taking Brandon Pettigrew over Alex Mack, Vontae Davis , and Clay Matthews. They weren't bringing back Suh, and truthfully probably knew it internally, and took Ebron over Aaron Donald. They needed help all over the defense and specifically in the front 4 and took Hockenson over Brian Burns or Montez Sweat.

Taking Hamilton over Hutchison, Thibodeaux, or Walker would be a repeat of the same problems. Problem one is need and they have a glaring need to be able to get after the passer with a dynamic edge guy. Hamilton could help the pass rush by closing down routes with tighter coverage, but his impact on the pass rush would be far less than would either of the three DE's potentially available to the Lions. Hamilton isn't a Safety who they are going to drop down low and blitz if his performance at Notre Dame is any indicator. He had 0 sacks and few QB hurries/pressures in his college career. If he is more of an Isiah Simmons, where he will play LB and be moved all over the field, that certainly adds to his value versus just being a Free Safety in coverage. If I am drafting a Safety that high I'd want someone that can drop in the box, blitz, and cover in space.

Problem two is positional value and Safety's, even one who could move around the field, have lower positional value than a pass rusher. If there was a mile wide gap in talent between Hamilton and the three top tier pass rushers, then obviously that changes things. But I think the combine and game film together show there is not a wide gap in talent between Hamilton and Hutch/Thibs/Walker. There certianly isn't enough of a talent gap in my mind to justify taking Hamilton over one of those pass rushers.

Problem three is the smartest guy in the room syndrome. If you have a glaring need and there is a great player available in the draft to fill that need, and it fits with the positional value to draft that player at that spot, take the player. As an organization, in prior regimes, we have gotten too cute with who we have drafted and gotten ourselves burnt. Sims, Williams, Pettigrew, Ebron, Hockenson. We need pass rushers and have to dramatically improve getting pressure on the QB and we have the choice of three top-tier guys who can do that. Sure, Hamilton may be the best Safety in the draft by a wide margin, but I don't think he's that much better than our choice of pass rushers. This mentality that Hamilton is a generational prospect, Earl Thomas 2.0 somehow, is hype we've heard before. Remember we were told TJ Hockenson was generational and would be Gronk 2.0 only to find out he's Kyle Rudolph 2.0. The organization needs to ignore the hype and go with their own research. Maybe that means Hamilton is a generational talent.

Problem four is that Hamilton was the single slowest Safety at the combine. Compare Hamilton's slow 4.59 40 time to other top Safeties in the league: Isiah Simmons 4.39, Earl Thomas 4.43, Minkah Fitzpatrick 4.46, Derwin James 4.47, Tyrann Mathieu 4.51, Jamal Adams 4.56, Marcus Williams 4.56. He was a clear step slower than 3 of the top 7 I listed and still slower than the remaining bunch. I get that 40 times aren't the be all, end all, but if we're being sold on Hamilton as a generational prospect, I'd like someone one with a bit more zip. I get that he played faster than his 40 time suggests in college. But in the pros, that extra step or two in speed means a lot more than it did going against college players.

Edited March 23, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[buddha]

the problem with hamilton - if there is one - is that he's too slow to be an nfl safety and too small to be an effective nfl linebacker.

that's the worry.

[RandyMarsh]

Hamilton can play all over the field hence why many evaluators who take into account positional value have him as the number 2 overall prospect, no other safety is in top 30 so that tells you how highly people think of him. 

Drafting an inferior player just for need and bc he plays a valuable position is what loser teams do. There's a ton of pass rushers in this draft all of which are viewed pretty equally after Hutch. You could just as easily get a great one with the 32nd or 34th pick.

For the record I'm not necessarily advocating taking Hamilton, I don't have a strong opinion either way but what I don't believe in is passing on him cause "he's just a safety". 

Edited March 23, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[RedRamage]

After a LOT of phone calls and and wheeling and dealing, I think this sets the Lions up for a lot of success in the future.  The 2nd round really has been a great spot for the Lions in the past after all.