2022 NFL Draft Thread

[Motown Bombers]

I guess the Lions drafting a 8-9 sack a year pass rusher 8th would be so much better. 

[buddha]

i guess that was the only option. 

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, buddha said:

i guess that was the only option. 

It literally was since 6 of the next 10 drafted were DL/LB. Unless of course you wanted Dwayne Haskins or some average guards. 

[buddha]

pro football reference tried to come up with a stat for football players that approximated bill james' win shares for baseball.  obviously much harder to do for football.  anyway, they call it approximate value.

hockenson's approximate value (AV) for his career is 13.  that's not very high.  part of that is he plays for a bad team that doesnt win much, part of it is that he's been injured a lot.  part of it is he's an average tight end.

the player from his draft class with the most AV is kyler murray (unsurprisingly).  second is devin white.  the lions didnt have a chance to draft either of them.  next on the list:

aj brown (51st pick)

dk metcalf (64th pick)

deebo samuel (36th pick)

maxx crosby (106th pick)

if the argument is that no one would have taken them at 8, that's understandable.  looking at the guys taken around hock or in the first round:

ed oliver: 23

marquis brown: 24

josh jacobs: 22

chrstian wilkins: 21

kaleb mcgary: 21

brian burns: 19

dexter lawrence: 19

devin bush: 17

tytus howard: 17

noah fant: 14

jerey tillery: 14

and those are just the first round picks taken after hock.  he ranks 51 out of all the picks in that draft so far.

an imperfect way to judge a player and not entirely fair to hock because he's stuck on the lions.  but it gives you an idea of how valuable he's been and how much more valuable so many others taken in the draft have been than him.

[buddha]

football outsiders has hock ranked 11th at tight end last year.

in 2020 he was ranked 30th

in 2019 he was ranked 43rd

so he's improving at least....but top 5?  not quite.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

hokenson is not a great nfl blocker and he's not the mismatch we hoped he would be as a pass catcher.  he is not a big play threat like waller, kelcie, gronk, or kittle.  he's not a great blocker.  he's not a 6'7 mismatch in the end zone like jimmy graham was.

but he's not bad at any of those things.  he's solid.  he might be a "top 10 te" but what does that get you?  a guy who is good at some stuff who doesnt move the needle but doesnt hurt you.  

ok.  but that's not what you expected from the #8 pick in the draft.  and unfortunately, that's where we picked him and that's how he'll be judged.

IDK, 8th doesn't seem like that big a deal. Does the average 1st round net 10 pro bowlers?

Edited April 13, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK, 8th doesn't seem like that big a deal. Does the average 1st round net 10 pro bowlers?

There were exactly 8 Pro Bowlers in the 1st round that year and Hockenson was one of them. Four of those 8 Pro Bowlers were drafted before Hockenson. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[Motown Bombers]

There were some good receivers taken in the 2nd round that year. Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, and DK Metcalf.  Samuel was off the board when the Lions drafted. The Lions drafted Tavai that year in the 2nd round. 

[NYLion]

5 hours ago, buddha said:

i have a sinking feeling okudah will be just like jarrad davis: a guy with great tools who tries real hard, says the right things, and you root for him....but it never works out.

i hope not, but coming back from being terrible and then having an achilles injury is rough.

he may end up at safety.  how weird would it be if will harris turns into the corner we thought okudah was and okudah becomes the safety we hopes harris would be?

The difference being that Okudah doesn't have the misfortune of being developed by one of the most incompetent coaching staffs in NFL history.

Edited April 14, 2022 by NYLion

[Motown Bombers]

Achilles injuries are devasting for defensive backs. If Okudah is anything close to the player he was suppose to be, that would be a huge bonus for the Lions. The good news I guess is that his injury happened in the 1st game. He should be ready to go by training camp. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

15 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I guess the Lions drafting a 8-9 sack a year pass rusher 8th would be so much better. 

Look, this team needed both receiving threats and pass rushing help at the time they drafted Hockenson. Would you rather have an average blocking TE that gets you 60-65 receptions/750 yards/5-6 TDs like Hock or or an edge rusher that gets you 8-9 sacks and 45-50 tackles like Burns/Sweat. I get it, both probably balance out and one is not anymore valuable than the other at the end of the day.

What ultimately hurts Hock in the eyes of the fans is that we had already as an organization drafted Brandon Pettigrew and Eric Ebron with 1st round picks and people were burnt out on the whole Lions wasting a 1st round pick on a TE when other organizations were finding great talents in later rounds. That argument isn't right and really offers no merit because what does one player have to do with another. Just because Butterfingers and Edrop flamed out has no barring on Hockenson as a player. But once again, fans were sold on the idea that they'd be getting a mismatch and a generational talent and thus far we didn't get it. What we got is a nice player, which really, is what both Burns and Sweat are too at the end of the day. 

[Motown Bombers]

35 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Look, this team needed both receiving threats and pass rushing help at the time they drafted Hockenson. Would you rather have an average blocking TE that gets you 60-65 receptions/750 yards/5-6 TDs like Hock or or an edge rusher that gets you 8-9 sacks and 45-50 tackles like Burns/Sweat. I get it, both probably balance out and one is not anymore valuable than the other at the end of the day.

What ultimately hurts Hock in the eyes of the fans is that we had already as an organization drafted Brandon Pettigrew and Eric Ebron with 1st round picks and people were burnt out on the whole Lions wasting a 1st round pick on a TE when other organizations were finding great talents in later rounds. That argument isn't right and really offers no merit because what does one player have to do with another. Just because Butterfingers and Edrop flamed out has no barring on Hockenson as a player. But once again, fans were sold on the idea that they'd be getting a mismatch and a generational talent and thus far we didn't get it. What we got is a nice player, which really, is what both Burns and Sweat are too at the end of the day. 

If Hockenson were healthy, he was on pace for 85 receptions, 825 yards, and 7 TDs. I feel there is more upside and provided he's healthy can be an 80/900/8 a year guy. None of the pass rusher you want so bad after Hockenson have had a double digit sack season. They aren't elite pass rushers. Would I be disappointed if the Lions drafted one over Hockenson? No but at the same time none are Aaron Donald. 

I don't think Hockenson was sold as a generational talent. You seem to be convinced of that but I saw a lot of comparisons to Jason Witten. He was build as the best all around TE in the draft. The argument about who they drafted in the past is lazy logic. Using that same logic, the Lions should have passed on Calvin Johnson. You're right we got a nice player but you make it sound like the Lions passed on All-Pro's. The Lions got the same production as Sweat from an undrafted player. Why waste a 1st round pick on a pass rusher when the Lions got the same production from an undrafted player? 

[Cruzer1]

Trey McBride reminds me of a young Kittle, he's by far the best TE in this draft. He's also bigger than Kittle, he's 6'4" 260.

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think Hockenson was sold as a generational talent.

Yeah - I don't know if it was so much a matter of those supporting the pick claiming he was a generational talent, as the skeptics arguing that he had better *be* a generational talent to justify taking a TE 8th.  But I think I've heard people argue against taking virtual every position but QB and LT in the 1st round. 32 players get taken in the 1st round and there will never be to 32 top LTs and QBs available! Guys at various of positions are going to get picked in the 1st round. 

[buddha]

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/t.j.-hockenson/3200484f-4342-2041-c442-6c874885b155

 

[Motown Bombers]

Montez Sweat was compared to Danielle Hunter. Note that Hunter has had multiple seasons of 12.5 and 14.5 sacks. Sweat has peaked at 9. I mean, if we're drafting a pass rusher at 8 shouldn't he be an All-Pro like Danielle Hunter? 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[RandyMarsh]

14 hours ago, NYLion said:

The difference being that Okudah doesn't have the misfortune of being developed by one of the most incompetent coaching staffs in NFL history.

This is what gives me hope, granted if the injury saps all his athleticism then even the best coaching isn't going to help him but if he can get back to atleast near where he was athletically I have hope this coaching staff can make something out of him. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Montez Sweat was compared to Danielle Hunter. Note that Hunter has had multiple seasons of 12.5 and 14.5 sacks. Sweat has peaked at 9. I mean, if we're drafting a pass rusher at 8 shouldn't he be an All-Pro like Danielle Hunter? 

it really goes to show how random those comparisons are.  

[MichiganCardinal]

I’m starting to like Thibs a little more than Walker at #2. I’m not turned off to Walker like I am some of the non-edge prospects. It feels though that as the draft cycle runs it’s course, we are back to where we started with Thibs clearly being the best natural pass rusher in the draft. Keep it simple and take him if he’s there.

[buddha]

1) hutchinson

2) thibs

3) willis (wtf not?)

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Montez Sweat was compared to Danielle Hunter. Note that Hunter has had multiple seasons of 12.5 and 14.5 sacks. Sweat has peaked at 9. I mean, if we're drafting a pass rusher at 8 shouldn't he be an All-Pro like Danielle Hunter? 

Yes, if you are drafting any player inside the top 10 you ideally want them to be a top-tier play at their position. In the case of a DE, you'd want double digit sack seasons and 40-45-50+ tackles in a season.

Here's Mel Kiper on Hockenson, comparing him to a generational TE in Rob Gronkowski . . .

"He's got a basketball background. He's nearly 6-5, 250 – talking about an athlete. ... You can see him blocking there and as well getting downfield with that release, sealing the edge. He's a throwback to the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s. He can block, get down the field, make the catch. You see Bob Quinn, the GM, is thinking Rob Gronkowski. You can think about how he added Jesse James, bringing him in in free agency. Now you bring in TJ Hockenson, who is an offensive (threat) for Matthew Stafford now. You have Kenny Golladay, you have Marvin Jones, you have Tommylee Lewis and Kerryon Johnson at running back and Danny Amendola in the slot. Now you get a guy who can block for Kerryon Johnson and can be another option for Matthew Stafford on third-down situations. In red zone situations, you can go to Hockenson and he can bring down the football."

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Forgetting the trade back scenarios for a second, these are the players I like at each of the picks ideally . . .

#2 Overall:

1. Aidan Hutchison/Edge

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux/Edge

3. Travon Walker/Edge

4. Garrett Wilson/WR

5. Drake London/WR

#32 and #34 Overall:

1. Lewis Cine/S

2. Jaquan Brisker/S

3. Christian Watson/WR

4. George Pickens/WR

5.  Leo Chenal/LB

6.   Chad Muma/LB

7.  David Ojabo/Edge

8. Boye Mafe/Edge

9. Jalen Pitre/S

10. Arnold Ebiketie/Edge

[RandyMarsh]

I want

49 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Forgetting the trade back scenarios for a second, these are the players I like at each of the picks ideally . . .

#2 Overall:

1. Aidan Hutchison/Edge

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux/Edge

3. Travon Walker/Edge

4. Garrett Wilson/WR

5. Drake London/WR

#32 and #34 Overall:

1. Lewis Cine/S

2. Jaquan Brisker/S

3. Christian Watson/WR

4. George Pickens/WR

5.  Leo Chenal/LB

6.   Chad Muma/LB

7.  David Ojabo/Edge

8. Boye Mafe/Edge

9. Jalen Pitre/S

10. Arnold Ebiketie/Edge

I think I'm in a similar boat except I like Pickens more than Watson. Getting Cine and him would be my dream scenario for 32 and 34.

[buddha]

i think you have to go edge (or qb) at 2.  the edge players at 32 are all flawed projects.  im sure one of them will work out, but id rather take the top guys at that position of need.

in fact, i'd rather take a qb at 32 than an edge...

i'd have lb, safety, or wr at 32 and 34.  unless someone wants to give me a #1 next year for 32...